Reform process, inflation key govt priority: Experts
Published on Wed, Jul 23, 2008 at 13:57 , Updated at Fri, Jul 25, 2008 at 15:16
Source : CNBC-TV18
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Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with George Varghese and Vinos Sharma: Q: What's your sense after yesterday's win and the kind of confidence the government was able to showcase in Parliament? What's the course of action from here? Varghese: The government won a resounding vote of confidence. The debate showed that the Left, which pulled the plug on the government earlier, and the BJP, or Bharatiya Janata Party had no case. The government demolished the case they had made on the 123 Agreement and other matters convincingly and absolutely. It can now move forward now with its unfinished agenda, without a veto of the Left overhanging. It can move on with some reforms on banking, insurance, and so on, which have been hanging fire. This could not move forward because of the Left veto. The country would expect results from this government in the next 7-8 months or before elections take place. Q: Do you agree that this could be a reformist six months? Do you think 49% FDI will be allowed in insurance? Do you think rules or amendments like this will get passed or do you think that the government would rather concentrate on inflation and look like a protector of the poor in the next six months? Sharma: The government's first priority will be to control inflation and also provide the necessary cushion to people who require it in the countryside. It will also focus on promoting some programmes that were kept on hold because of Left pressure. For instance, reforms in the banking and insurance sector, and FDI in retail which may perhaps not be an easy thing to do as there is a lot of pressure from small-time neighbourhood grocers who tend to get impacted by this initiative. The Prime Minister's biggest challenge would be to forge a consensus on labour reforms. Even within the ruling government, it might be a Herculean task because this is something that affects the huge working class in our country, which is also the middle-class that builds public opinion and navigates trends and policies. The government's first task should be to restore popular faith in Parliamentary democracy and in the institution itself. The Speaker is under threat by his party to step down. He has a role to perform and should continue in his position because believes in the separation of powers under the constitution and in the supremacy of Parliament and how to make it higher in popular esteem. If he quits his position now, he would be doing great injustice to the institution of Parliament.
Q: After the kind of cross-voting one saw yesterday, do you think there could be more bipartisan support sought, given the terms of bills like insurance? The Finance Minister said they would reach out to other parties who voted with the opposition on issues like higher foreign ownership of insurance companies. Do you think cross voting and bipartisan approach to issues could become common in the next six-months? Do you think that we will see some reforms through? Varghese: I am sure the government will reach out to all sections of the house and country. That is the purpose of Parliamentary democracy, i.e. to be able to build and debate national consensus. The onus will be on those who oppose it to then face elections and say why are they standing in the way of reforms. It was all very well within the government to say we would pull you down, therefore don’t move. But with that obstacle removed, if the government now moves, the onus will be on the others to show why they are opposing reforms, when they say they want the government and the country to move forward. If one is dealing with the price rise, it doesn’t mean one folds ones hands on everything else and just sits and waits for events. One acts simultaneously on a broad front. Therefore, all this talk about concentrating on prices is absolutely meaningless and so is the total lack of understanding of both governance and economics. Q: If you look at the political scenario 6-9 months down the line when an election would be on the anvil, do you think there is a distinct possibility of a Mayawati or BSP-led Third Front forming a government or will there be a hung Parliament? What does the scene look like nine months down the line? Sharma: The 15th Lok Sabha is going to be a hugely atomized entity. A stable government formation is going to be a big challenge. The Third Front aspires to garner above100 seats after the next elections. If they do get above 100 seats, they would be major players in any combination. Political alienation or differences do not last in the face of an opportunity to grab power. At times, political parties do extend support from outside to other entities in order to curry favour with the electorate or certain sections of the society. If Mayawati is a serious contender for being the next Prime Minister, the Congress will have great problems not supporting her, because Congress’ agenda number one is to regain its Dalit base. It cannot be doing that by opposing a possible first Prime Minister from that community. Between now and the elections, both the BJP and the so-called Third Front- UNPA, which now also has the Left aligned with it, will try to bad mouth the Congress’ economic reforms. It is there that the government’s ability to reach out and explain to the people in simple terms about the benefits of the nuclear deal and the reforms process that it is initiating would of utmost importance. Since the early 90s, there has been a great danger of reforms becoming a four-letter word, because the first generation economic reforms did not touch the people on the margins. This fact is accepted even by celebrated Chief Ministers like Chandrababu Naidu and SM Krishna. Naidu lately has been singing the Left’s tune. He is more in consort with the Left than the reform process. So, it is going to be a tightrope walk for the Prime Minister. |
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