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Political situation to set mkts course ahead: Experts

Published on Fri, Jul 04 at 16:57 , Updated at Mon, Jul 07 at 12:08
Source : CNBC-TV18

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The markets ended the volatile week on a high. The indices shrugged off a sluggish start and powered ahead to close with handy gains. Nifty closed at 4,016 up 90 points, while the Sensex shut shop at 13,454 up 360 points.

The major losers this week were Adlabs and Nagarjuna Fertiliser while the major gainers were Orchid Chemicals and Shree Renuka. Inflation for the week-ended June 21 is at 11.63% versus 11.42%.

Where do experts see markets heading?

Ambareesh Baliga of Karvy Stock Broking believes that there is buying in this market and the local big boys are back and have started buying. He further said that local institutions have been buying for the last couple of days and are trying to support the market at lower levels.

Baliga feels that selling, which is coming from hedge funds, is tapering off because the June blues are over and most of the redemption pressures which are there on them are over as of now. So, there is not too much of selling coming from Foreign Institutional Investors, or FIIs. According to Baliga, only time will tell whether this is a temporary bottom for the time being.  

Baliga believes that it is possible to hold around 12,800 levels for the time being and try and inch up to 14,000-14,500. The reason for this is that inflation, to the level of 12.5-13%, is discounted by the market to a certain extent. Secondly, on the political front, things are slowly clearing up and by next week it should be very clear what sort of support is there.

“Even oil at USD 150-160 per barrel is already discounted to a large extent. With all these negative factors being discounted for, there is nothing much which can spoof the market for the time being.”

According to him, the pain is in the systems which will carry on for a while more, lasting up to October-November. With an optimistic view, he feels that the brightest spot is tax corrections, which are much better than what people have been expecting. He said,” For investment, we will have to wait a bit longer. So as of now, we will still keep high cash in our portfolio. I do not think cash in our portfolio will go below 25-30%.”         

Looking at the kind of advance tax figures, he is hopeful that the results for this quarter should be better than what people have been expecting over the past couple of weeks. According to him, the big thing next week would be the nuclear deal and the political situation. 

Sandeep Nayak, Senior Vice President and Head-PCG, Kotak Securities said, “If the market is able to stay beyond 4,070, which is the volume weighted average price of the Nifty July series, then you have to trade long for a while, though the overall trend is bearish. One has to have a cautious view. In this market, you have to trade both directions-long as well as short- with strict stop losses.”

Nayak feels that if this pullback is able to carry on till 4,070 and the market trades beyond that, we could see the intermediate trend becoming positive for the short term and the bulls will gain momentum beyond this level in certain sectors, especially real estate and banks, where there was an excessive short build up seen over the past few days.

Messages on Market Outlook - Short Term

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WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Hello DU sir, If I can be of service for you regards the nifty, you are always welcome sir. You yours...

in Market Outlook - Short Term - lovemeall26 at 08-Sep-08 05:17

Can the current triggers drive the Nifty up to 5000 levels?

Many Investor lost their money in Share market....

in Market Outlook - Short Term - Guest at 08-Sep-08 05:03

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