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Long-term invt should start cherry picking now: Experts

Published on Tue, Jul 08 at 15:08 , Updated at Wed, Jul 09 at 16:45
Source : CNBC-TV18

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Global cues wreaked havoc with market sentiment and the indices got off to a dismal start. Short covering post the Left pull out helped the markets wipe out some of the early losses.

 

The Nifty closed at 3,989 down 41 points, while the Sensex shut shop at 13,350 down 176 points.

 

Mehraboon Irani, Vice-President PMS, Centrum Broking, feels it is the best time for investors to buy. "One should be very stock selective. There are companies within sectors which are available at very attractive valuations. They are relatively immune to most concerns as they don’t have a great capex programme and don’t need to go to the capital or debt market to raise money. Those companies should be bought by savvy investor right now. Over a period of time, this investment is going to ultimately yield lovely returns."

 

He sees a sharp bounce back in the markets once the nuclear deal is signed.

 

According to Irani, the markets would eventually fall. "Some stocks and sectors, which are relatively immune to concerns that we have right now, have taken a beating for no fault of their, so sooner or later valuations will play a very important role. Stock picking has never been as important as what it is going to be now. Money making ahead is going to be very difficult."

 

Kamlesh Kotak, Vice-President-Research, Asian Market Securities, said investors should neither be nervous or jittery nor get out or time the market anticipating further fall. "Domestic factors like political and inflationary pressures and global factors like crude oil shocks, further subprime losses, and a US slowdown are all haunting the market."

 

According to Kotak, accumulation at every decline should be the strategy for long-term investors. "Investors looking to build a long-term portfolio should take small exposures at every decline. However, they should be prepared to look at further downsides."

 

He expects the Sensex to fall by another 10% from current levels.

 

Nischal Maheshwari, Executive Vice-President of Institutional Equity, Edelweiss Securities, expects the Nifty to trade rangebound between around 3,800 on the lower side and around 4,300-4,500 on the higher side in July.

 

According to Maheshwari, if the government survives this fallout, it will be in a position to take stronger measures. "So, some reforms, which has been stalled for the last three-four years, could come in the next seven-eight months. That would be a trigger for this market to recover a bit."

 

Rajat Bose of rajatkbose.com doesn't expect to see a sustainable bounce in the market unless the Nifty crosses 4,093 decisively on the upside. "If 3,842 is broken decisively, it would mean a fall of another 200 points on the downside."

 

According to Bose, the markets are trading rangebound. "Investors should refraining from trading and rather watch from the sidelines."

 

Vijay Bhambwani of bsplindia.com sees pressure coming in closer to 4,075-4,100 on the Nifty. "3,848 Nifty is holding. I would take that as a swing reversal. As long as this support level holds, one can expect the markets to have a fighting chance of coming up. On the upside, I expect the overhead supply to cap the headroom on the upside and probably see pressure coming in closer to 4,075-4,100. At best, 4,100 is where I would like to take money off the table on any long positions that I would have."

 

According to Bhambwani, volatility is likely to be above average, so the price moves would be larger. "Between here and 3,848 there are some minor inflection points, but I wouldn’t read too much into them. 3,910 is a small support level. If it closes below 3,910, then the likelihood of 3,848 holding tomorrow morning stands up marginally higher."

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