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High oil prices may still curb India's growth: David Cohen

Published on Mon, Jul 14, 2008 at 13:30 , Updated at Mon, Jul 14, 2008 at 22:01
Source : CNBC-TV18

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David L Cohen, Director of Action Economics feels that there is a cloud hanging over the global economy right now, which is primarily contributed to higher oil prices. Cohen said that one does not know how they it is going to go and that would potentially drag down the growth in India just like in many other countries.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with David Cohen: 

Q: The two negatives of inflation at a 13-year high and IIP data at a 6-year low; is there any light for the current month once that high base effect wears out can we see some sort of improvement in the IIP data?

A: The IIP data outlook is clouded by the risk of a slowing in the global economy, including impact on India, putting the drag from the stock market decline. The stock markets around the world at least steadied today after the sell-off on Wall Street on Friday surrounding the Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae picture.

 

The statements from the US Treasury pledging to take necessary measures seemed to have calmed the nerves a bit; the Dow steadied after selling off on Friday and although most of the Asian equity markets were lower, they also found some footing.

 

Q: How are you looking at Indian macros, do you see them getting worse, and do you need to see them lower the GDP expectations and therefore corporate earnings as well in FY09 itself?

A: That is the risk of stagflation. This is a cloud hanging over the global economy right now that primarily contributed to higher oil prices and as we see today we still don’t know how they are going to go and that would potentially drag down the growth in India just like many other countries.

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