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See crude trading at $100/bbl if demand eases: Platts

Published on Fri, Jul 18 at 14:07 , Updated at Mon, Jul 21 at 09:07
Source : CNBC-TV18

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Crude prices dropped by more than USD 5 per barrel, adding to a decline of more than 10% from last week's record. This was mainly on account of worries over US demand and easing political tensions between Iran and the West over its nuclear program. The  black gold's slide marks the biggest three-day loss in the market in percentage terms since December 2004. It is currently trading at USD 130.97 per barrel down 1.68 cents on the Nymex.

So, where are crude prices finally heading?

 

Vandana Hari, Asia News Director, Platts, said crude has fallen by USD 15 per barrel since Tuesday, post Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke address to Congress. This, according to her, is quite substantial.

 

Hari said that if there are more price hikes in the Asian countries in the coming months and the market begins to focus finally on a contraction in a global demand, prices should start easing back towards a USD 100 per barrel.

 

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Vandana Hari:

 

Q: How do you look at the recent correction or liquidation in crude prices? Do you think it is here to stay?

 

A: It’s been more than a correction. From Tuesday when the Fed Chairman made his statement about the state of the US economy to today, Nymex crude has come down by almost USD 15 per barrel, which is pretty substantial. I tempted to say that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke might have finally pricked the bubble, which everyone has been talking about by basically getting players in the futures market to finally start looking at what the demand scene is looking like instead of simply focusing on supply problems.

 

Q: The pattern shows a declining trend there, but are you looking at more lows from here? What is your range coming one-three months from now?

 

A: When it comes to demand, the US and the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, feels oil demand in developed countries has been declining substantially. Depending on whose figures one looks at, US gasoline demand is down 2-5% YoY. The focus now has probably started shifting to what is going to happen to demand in China, India, and West Asia because its this demand that seems to have been holding up overall global demand growth so far this year.

 

In both these counties demand has been artificially sustained with subsidies. Both these countries have finally decided to cutback on subsidies and increase prices. The question in China now is not if but when will it hike prices again? Probably, India is in the same boat. So, the focus seems to be shifting to that. If we see more price hikes in the Asian countries in the coming months and the market begins to focus finally on a contraction in a global demand, I would say prices should start easing back towards a USD 100 per barrel.

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