FY08 growth moderation seen at 8.7%: RBI

The Reserve Bank of India, or RBI, has just announced its Macro Economic Survey, reports CNBC-TV18. The survey sees growth moderating to 8.7% in 2007-08 from 9.6% in 2006-07. "Moderation in growth is seen in agriculture, industry, and services."

Inflation firmed in major economies in H2 FY08 on account of high food and fuel prices, and strong demand conditions in emerging markets, it said. "Southwest rainfall season, i.e. June-September 2008, is likely to be 99% near normal. Monetary and liquidity conditions continue to expand at strong pace, albeit with some moderation. Hence, it is important for the monetary policy framework to allow possibility of tightening even if near-term inflation is under control."

The International Monetary Fund said consumer price inflation is expected to moderate in 2008, though headline inflation is likely to remain firm. The Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, or CMIE, expects industrial growth to increase from 8.5% in 2007-08 to 10% in 1008-09. "It projects growth rates in manufacturing at 10.8% for 2008-09, mining sector 8%, and electricity 6.3%."

Growth in consumer goods dropped to 6.3% in 2007-08 as against 9.5% in the previous year, the survey said. Despite global financial crisis, overall forex flows and reserves remained largely sustained, it said.

Meanwhile, gross tax-GDP ratio in FY09 is seen at 13% as against 12.5% YoY. "Revenue expenditure is seen up 11.8% in FY09 as against 14.4% last year while global economic growth seen down at 3.7% in 2008."