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Growth may slowdown to 8%: KV Kamath

Published on Fri, Apr 04 at 12:33 , Updated at Fri, Apr 04 at 18:42
Source : CNBC-TV18

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KV Kamath, MD and CEO, ICICI Bank said that liquidity is comfortable and policy steps are needed to tame inflation. He added that inflation is purely driven by supply side factors. According to Kamath, economic growth could be seen in the range of 8-10%.

 

He said, "As a nation 60% of GDP comes from the services sector and that is going to keep us on a sustainable growth path, because the growth has been strong at more than 10%. So we will have inflation and I am sure policy measures will be taken to control inflation. I cannot comment on what those policy measures could be, but we will see growth happening because growth is today embedded into the way we have set our reform processes also. So growth may slowdown from 10% to around 8%; between 8-10%."

 

On the business of interest rates, he adds, "My policy always has been to look at market conditions before taking any step and when other banks were cutting rates, we did not cut rates. If I were to look at current context; we are in a very comfortable liquidity situation. Last year this time i.e. at the end of March, banks were paying 12.5% for a one yes deposit; today this year we have paid single digit money maybe 9.8-9.9% for one year money and that indicates what sort of liquidity we have, very comfortable liquidity situation in the country."  

 

According to HDFC Bank, the RBI action on the inflation spike should not be ruled out. They also believe that fiscal steps may pull down inlation by 50-60 bps, reports CNBC TV 18 quoting Newswire 18.

ICICI Bank's Chanda Kochhar doesn't see interest rates moving up in the near future. She sees FY09 credit growth at 20%. There is enough liquidity in the system, she said.

Excerpts from an interview with KV Kamath:

Q: Do you think the Reserve Bank of India will wait till 30th to increase rates?

A: I don’t know.

Q: There is already a slowdown in loans growth, are there any monetary measures is that going to affect further?

A: We do not know what monetary measures will be there. As far as loan growth is concerned, there will be response to two things; (1) rising product prices particularly for homes; the home prices have been increasing in the last two-three years and in the last one year we have seen a slowdown. (2) As far as other products are concerned, affordability of layman has been impacted; so clearly we will see the impact of that. We have already seen the impact and whatever is an appropriate measure counter will be taken by the government.

Q: They have two opinions on supply side and monetary.

A: I am not an economist, so can speak a bit easily. At this point of time I think it is purely supply side phenomena more than inflation because of what we could term as overheating.

Q: ICICI Bank itself has seen 25-30% growth over the last two years on advances. Do you expect the same robust growth?

A: Let me talk of the system rather than of ICICI Bank; Ms Chanda Kochhar is the spokesperson for ICICI Bank and she will talk about it. As far as the system is cornered; the system saw a 35% growth in all consumer credit items and consequent to inflationary tendencies particularly in property, consequent to interest rate hikes, the system now is growing at a slower pace.

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