Technical Analyst, Deepak Mohoni : European markets rallied strongly on Friday, while the US markets were mixed, with the Dow up and the NASDAQ down marginally. Asian markets are moving both ways this morning and the global short-term trend is mixed now. We are therefore in for two-way moves today. 

The market rallied on Friday, with the Sensex up 312.81 points (1.81%) at 17,600.12, the Nifty 62.30 points (1.21%) at 5,228.20, and the CNX Midcap 85.15 points (1.22%) at 7,089.95. The biggest positive contributions to the Sensex came from ICICI Bank (91.0 points), Reliance (63.6), Larsen & Toubro (52.8), Infosys (25.4), Reliance Energy (23.4), State Bank (19.0), Jaiprakash Assoc (16.0), Satyam Computers (11.1), HDFC Bank (10.0), Maruti Suzuki (9.7), Tata Motors (9.5), TCS (7.6), NTPC (7.1), Wipro (5.8), Mahindra (5.7) and DLF (5.6). The largest negative contributions to the Sensex came from Reliance Comm (19.6 points), Tata Steel (15.4), HDFC (10.9) and Hindalco (9.7).

The market's breadth was neutral, with advances outnumbering declines 1.13 times on the BSE, and 1.32 times on the NSE. The volume in advancing issues was 70.8% (47.8%) on the BSE, and 80.0% (50.7%) on the NSE, while that in declining ones was 21.2% (49.6%) on the BSE, and 15.9% (49.2%) on the NSE.

The number of heavily traded stocks at 200-day highs fell from four to three, while the number at 200-day lows remained one. The number at 5-day highs went up from 87 to 121, while the number of at 5-day lows dropped from 34 to 26. The 240 stocks averaged a gain of 1.52%.

The Nifty opened more than 90 points higher but reached its session high almost immediately. It then swung both ways, making its low at 1335 and closing in the middle of the day's range. The CNX Midcap followed a similar course.

The indices continue to remain in an intermediate uptrend. The uptrend has been quite persistent, being started on March 18 when the Sensex hit a low of 14,677. The levels below which the  uptrend would end remain at 16,589 for the Sensex, 4,991 for Nifty, and 6,797 for the CNX Midcap.

The intermediate uptrend coincides with a similar global one. In fact, the Dow has closed at its highest level for the calendar year, and above its 200-day moving average. A few other global indices including London's Footsie and the Hang Seng index have also climbed above their 200-day moving averages just now.

For the moment though, most global markets are still in major (long-term) downtrends, which means that a global bull market has yet to be confirmed.

All our indices are also in major downtrends, though the Sensex, Nifty and CNX Midcap have just closed above their 200-day moving averages.

The major downtrend (bear market) would end if the Sensex closes above its last intermediate top of 18,895, the Nifty above 5,545 and the CNX Midcap 7,814.

There was no change in the major trend of any of the Hotline stocks on Friday.

The FIIs sold USD 21.0 million of stocks on Wednesday, and are averaging daily purchases of USD 8.2 million over the last five sessions. The MF figure was not released. They were buying at a rate of USD 11.7 million until Tuesday.

Most global indices are in intermediate uptrends. However, the major trend of most global markets remains down.

The Dow rose 48.20 points (0.37%) to 13,058.20, while the NASDAQ composite fell 3.72 points (0.15%) to 2,476.99. Infosys was up 1.58% at USD 44.94, Satyam rose 4.54% to USD 27.18, Wipro gained 2.96% at USD 13.57, Tata Motors gained 0.94% at USD 17.15, ICICI Bank went up 2.51% to USD 46.90, HDFC Bank dropped 0.19% to USD 117.69, Dr Reddy gained 0.77% at USD 15.67, MTNL rose 3.04% to USD 5.76, Patni went up 0.67% to USD 13.52, Rediff.com gained 5.38% at USD 9.20 and Satyam Infoway went up 2.21% to USD 5.08.