Dear Vam,

Closing the market is not an option, and speaks very bad about the robustness of the market... F&O contracts would get frozen, and it could block FIIs from ever entering the Indian markets.

This is the time to stay calm and reflect upon the past. A lot of blame has been put on FIIs. However, one should note that not all FIIs are long and short funds. Many were long only funds, and many more long only funds will enter India soon. Many of these FIIs are themselves making huge losses i am sure.

For those who are earning, and want to invest for real long term, this is likely to be one of the few opportunities the stock market gives for making an entry at levels that are unlikely to be seen again in ones lifetime!

Good Luck!

...

Hi Novice,

This time the third front is different... I do not want to discuss it at great length as it is a touchy issue, but if Dalits lead a coalition at the center, just watch the jitters it will create amongst the industrialists and investors alike.

Regards...

Hi Aby,

I think a good time to start accumulating.... Some frontliners i like are NTPC, GAIL, ONGC, SBIN(on a dip) and BHEL (again on a further dip).... How fitting that the Navratnas are really standing tall (of course, we know who is buying into thm and at whose behest)...

Avoid Reliance, TATA and Birla group stocks as they are likely to be hard up for cash... Though TATA group stocks will likely outperform in the next bull run.

Telecom i believe is not a good investment now... It is getting increasingly more competitive, and is unlikely to outperform.

True, there are a lot of midcaps with sound fundamentals that are available cheap.. But I think they will only follow the frontliners.. So right strategy should be to buy frontliners, and once the frontliners are giving 15-20% returns, book part profits to invest in good mid-caps.

Do remember that there is another risk that we face in the form of elections; and a hung parliament, or a govt led by the third front could lead to another big collapse.

Good Luck!

...

And the next time around, hyperinflation WOULD NOT hurt India and China, as much it does the developed nations!...

Dear Novice,

Thankfully, RBI is better off than fed.. and its good india owes money to the US than the other way around :-)

The govts around the world are not going to ANNOUNCE a move away from USD.. I guess it must have started about 6-12 months back... And thats why the current efforts to screw the entire world up and salvage whatever worth they can for the USD... It is the case of a murderer not trusting anyone :-) Will this make emerging powers more responsible? only time will tell... Looking at China`s treatment of Tibet, and what goes on in India, doesn`t seem to be the case..

I think the topmost factor for hyper-inflation will be the depreciation in USD :-)
...

RN

You have an excpetion here :-) I have seen hell and experienced it...lol... It is here and now! Thats the only way to not accumulate karma :-)...

Novice,

I expect the hyper-inflation to start very soon.. There are two reasons for this: one - china has already made its intentions clear - it will focus on growth, and i believe this time it will be led by domestic consumption. two - more and more economies will find USD too risky to hold their reserves in...

Even India is likely to choose growth post-elections, and these two economies are more than enough to lead the world into a hyper-inflation - as early as second half of 2009/2010.

regards...

Hi Raj_tips, Appreciate your helpful inputs ! I`ll watch the stocks your mentioned. Some are completely staying away from IT & banking sectors. Still I agree SBIN will be a safer one of the lot as the likes of ICICI could have unknows levels of exposure to subprime. Keep an eye on ABAN & GMR also. I agree that a midcap rally might only follow a frontline rally if at all it happens. IFCI, Nagarfert, Chambal, TTML might benefit that time. The way things are moving, there might not be much negatives left to factor in by the time of elections unless we see a good recovery prior to that. But yeh, I remember the black monday right after BJP govt fell. So it`s better to be safe than sorry. Regards, Aby...

Dear Raj_tibs, Yeah I know it`s bad for the markets, It`s my wish to stop the blood Bath happening on the Indian markets. Lately I have been wondering How everyone can SELL at throw away prices, Let`s hope that DOW jones find bottom soon and move up. The problem is that almost all the retail investors ( except some small % )are used their money already at the levels above 4000, Now either they don`t have the money or the courage. Since they are not going to pick up these stoks at throw away prices their wait time increasing at every passing days. Let`s see if BUSH Speech can pep up the DOW Jones market......

dear raj, Do you know why industrialists from the west demand reforms? In reality reforms are nothing but changing the system in such a way which will be free from any local governance. If anybody thinks Indians are ruling India and Paks are ruling Pakistan.. i can safely say they are under the misconception.While Pakistan lost its freedom long back, India lost its freedom under the able leadership of the great Manmohan singh. What better example one needs than N-deal! The way things are being handled in India now are no different from that of East India company`s Robert clive`s handling of Bengal nawab Sirajudduala. East India company directly ruled Indian subcontinent. While their 21st century counter parts from US are controlling India through remote control. If i give some of the hard realities with factual data, people get shocked. regards PS: I am not a pessimist... i have done enough ground work and spent enough time before i came to these conclusions which surprised me when experts vews concur with those of mine....

dear raj, Elections and budget are non events for Indian economy and stock markets.Who ever may come to the power, it wont make any difference for markets. regards...

dear raj, you are right that telecom as sector may not fetch ood returns.This sector already witnessed enough growth and the increasing competition and lower average revenues per user will make this sector unattractive for LT investors. Blue chips like NTPC,GAIL, ONGC and SBI may be the safer counters.But i am afraid they can never outperform some of the mid caps which are witnessing high growth rates if one has an investment horizon of 5 to 7 years. Markets havent fully bottomed out and this process would take some more time.Buying in hurry may not be the right strategty.. but yes buying selective stocks which already got beaten down heavily and with clear growth prospects in the next 5 years, in small lots may be the right strategy. regards...

Hi Raj, New rumors are above few big Indian Banks & Telcos incurring heavy losses which aren`t yet reflecting in balance sheets. Where will the index go if there is any truth in this. Keeping aside the damage to index, I wonder what is happening to midcaps which are getting butchered by over 15% during every fall. Indiabulls is trading below 100, way down from it`s all time high price of above 1000. Not sure if it`s only the FIIs or is it also the demoralised retail selling out of panic at any level, like there is no tomorrow. Regards, Aby...

Yes raj, After the purgatory in hell one takes human form (as per garuda puran) for what should one take human form when here too we feel its purgatory. As though earth is one hunky dory ride. ROFL... In essence if u have faith in some god that catches ur fancy its a blessing. Whether we are being fooled by our own faith or going to be redeemed i have no clue. Most fanatics and truly loyal and faithful devotees dont doubt adn the power to doubt or logical thinking has been nipped in the bud in their minds. Whethere this nipping is a fallout of conditioning or whether its blessing from their respective god who knows. ROFL....