Please take note, I am neither a bull nor a bear, am just like a portion of the tail of a comet. I just follow the trend. The trend and my stop loss are my only friends.

SEE THE EXTENT OF THE DAMAGE CAUSED SO FAR AND HOW MUCH PROBABLY MORE TO GO IN THE GRAPH PROVIDED DOWN BELOW REGARDING THE BEAR MARKET CORRECTIONS ON 27.9.08.

This section is for Day / Swing / Momentum Traders only.

This message posted at - 6.30 PM , 1.12.08.

NIFTY AS ON 1.12.08 WAS 2682 SPOT.

The nifty levels for 2nd December 2008 are as follows all being spot levels.

support1 = 2613
support2 = 2503
On upside, resistance1 = 2735
resistance2 = 2800

Stop losses for long positions should be kept a little below supports and stop losses for short positions should be kept a little above resistance levels.

PS: Short term predictions come with fair amount of risk and this is just a guidance without any commitment.

Does it not appear funny that the day these markets are supposed to sink (like friday last), it does not and the day it is not expected, it sinks (today). Although we were proceeding fine in the morning, the bad news came out during trading hours that Maruti has posted 25 % lower sales in November and so too, TVS Motors with 13 % lower sales. This was further proof of our declining economy and thus it gave a good chance for the bears to start hammering the nifty once again. This resulted in big falls in SBI, Bhel and other big wigs. Nifty came close by 17 points to an important support given at 2652 yesterday and ended at 2682, nearly the low point of the day. Added to that,europe was also trading in the red as General Motors is supposed to put forward its case for bailout on tuesday before the congress. If the congress does not bailout GM, there can be big falls in the world markets then. Maybe, our markets were playing safe before this big event. Also, there are reports that there have been record declines in european and chinese manufacturing signalling that the global economic slump is worsening.
On the charts, the slow stochs has started to point down, that too, just before it was about to enter overbought zones. However, this is not a sell signal and do not go short blindly. Let the levels break, then one can go short. A break on the downside at 2613 will signal, nifty coming out of the triangle, hence all long positions keep stop loss at 2600, as breaking this, there are huge chances of seeing 2503 again. And if 2503 breaks, then much lower levels can be seen too. On the upside, nifty facing strong resistance at the respective trendline, the toughest being 2865 which it did not manage to clear today.
FII's nett bought 28 crores while DII's nett bought 49 crores only.

RIDE THE BIG WAVE HAS BEEN UPDATED DOWN BELOW.

2.12.08
LETS RIDE A BIG WAVE :-
A break of 2500 now will definately show 2250 or maybe lower too now. Hence, trade accordingly.

WEEKLY REPORTS : -

NIFTY UNRUFFLED BY GUNS
29.11.08 NIFTY AT 2755

First of all allow me to pay my humble tributes to the brave soldiers of the security forces who laid down their lives in the service of the nation. May god rest their soul in peace and may god give courage to their families to face this day with strength. It indeed is a sad day for India that due to a security lapse, we had to see such a horrific day. I hope the political leaders do not take this lyeing down and do some deep instrospection and do something concrete in order for such a situation not to arise in future once again. How many more lives does India have to sacrifice to wake up to the fact that terrorism has to be dealt much much more strongly and firmly than how it is being dealt at present. India is known for its secularism and fighting domestically amongst each other is no solution. Also going to war with our neightbours is also no solution. However, my suggestion is I am sure that our intelligence services know the location of terrorists camps in the neighbouring countries where such criminals are being trained against India. Why don't we do something like the Israeli's and blast those camps from the air. That will teach those anti social elements a lesson and also pay them back in their own coin. However, these decisions are best left to the defence ministry ofcourse.

The trade that was :-
It was indeed a test of nerves for our markets this week as we were witness to the terrorist massacre at the heart of our financial institutions of the country. With the expiry being postponed on friday, there were many brokers and traders who could not sit on their trading screens as they were unable to reach their offices. SEBI was nervous too and was hoping no panic like situation would develop at the markets and was hence keeping a very close watch at the events unfolding throughout the day at the markets. There were reports that they would stop trading in between if they found anything wrong. Before trade on friday, I had decided not to play the short game and had requested all my online trading friends at the forums not to short the market today as we needed to show the world that our market can overcome such unwarranted fear from anti national forces. Thankfully, we did not panic throughout the day and ended in the green. It may not be high in the green, but symbolically, it is a very positive signal from the markets. It could have been far worse if traders really panicked which would have had a cascading negative effect. There were moments of nervousnes as and when news of new firings from around the city came in,but we managed to fight back. And the good news is that we again managed to close above an importance resistance of 2740 for the second time inspite of such negativity. Another good news coming was that of inflation coming down to 8.84 %, however, the GDP numbers were a disappointment at 7.6 % compared to 9.3 % year on year basis. Anyway, such poor numbers were expected by the markets and that is why we fell down so much in the first place. For a change,after many many days we saw FII buying on friday alongwith DII buying.

The trade ahead :-
Another close above 2740 will embolden the bulls strongly now and the fact that the markets fought back on a day of negative domestic cues will show some more upside on the nifty. Since, it was expiry day, final short covering was expected which supported the markets too. Since, the traders saw that the markets did not panic, they reversed their positions and took long positions instead. Added to that, we are getting continous good global cues since the past few days. Hence, it could be time for our markets to rejoice too. Hence, for a few days, until slow stochs does not enter overbought zones, it is advisable to play on the long side.

NIFTY PLAYING HIDE AND SEEK
22.11.08 NIFTY AT 2693

The trade that was :-
This week has made history in two ways for the current year, first, the dow jones made its lowest lows for this year so far by touching 7392 and secondly, nifty closed in the red seven times consecutively. The slow stochs was continously in the oversold zones till thursday, however, it did not manage to break 2500 decisively, inspite of poor performance of the dow during the week. Hence, it takes guts to short at these low levels as the bounceback can be ferocious, just like what we witnessed on fridays trade in the dow jones. Having traded in the red for some time, it managed to shoot up nearly 500 points at the end of the day.This happened on the news that Obama picked Timothy Geithner, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, to be his Treasury secretary, with Lawrence Summers getting a senior White House role. This went down positively with the markets thus resulting in the late rally.But Hang seng takes the cake for fridays trade. Having sunk 485 points in gap down, it went into green as we were about to enter into trade on friday morning and went up nearly 800 points to end in 360 points up. Hence, inspite of a gap down expectation, we opened up a little gap up, thus catching the bears unawares. This just proves that one must be prepared for both sides movements in our indices and must not have stubborn views of the markets. However, one thing of concern is that the FII's are relentlessly selling each and every day since many days and although the DII's are soaking it all up, I wonder for how long they can manage as the FII's still hold substantal stocks. However, we have good news with crude going below 50 dollars per barrell and also our domestic inflation coming down to 8.90 %.

The trade ahead :-
Those holding bearish views and sticking to it non stop will be surprised this coming week. No doubts that we cannot think that the final bottom has been made, but one must remember that nifty cannot keep on falling each and every day and a pullback on the back of short covering is also imminent whatever be the situation, especially when the expiry is so near. Our charts give an early indication of this and after fridays EOD, the slow stochs has given a clear buy signal, hence, we can expect a gap up on monday which should sustain and proceed further north.Do not go long on opening trade. Wait a few minutes for the markets to come down a little and then go long again with proper stop losses. The bears will be caught on the wrong foot on monday and they will run to cover shorts thus resulting in further rally. The charts are showing that this rally can take it all up to even 3050 levels, hence shorters beware. The power of short covering is immense, hence, upmove can be swift and furious. However, do not conclude that this bear market is over. The propensity of the volatility is too high to indicate that the base has been formed. Hence, rather trade the levels and gain out of it. Also, keep in mind that 3050 should not be taken for granted. How nifty behaves out there or before that will give further indications.

MARKETS OVERLOOKING GOOD NEWS
15.11.08 NIFTY AT 2810

The trade that was :-
On the 12th, I had warned that the charts patterns of the nifty was looking exactly like the one before the huge oct 24th fall and if 2740 is broken, then mayhem would prevail. On the 12th night, Dow ended deep in the red and thanks to Gurunanakji, our markets were saved from bloodshed on the 13th. However, on 13th night, The dow again ended high up in the green which nuetralized its negative effect and we also did not fall much. However, we went into trade with a very positive piece of information that our inflation had finally fallen into single digits to 8.98 % which is nearly two percent lower than its previous week. Hence, the gap up was expected alongwith good overnight global cues. But what happened ? It did not sustain for even fifteen minutes and slided down again and the reason being the FII's and DII's used the gap up to exit from their stocks as FII's sold heavily (811 crores) into the rise. This just shows total lack of conviction on the part of the bulls and Domestic investors. This good news alongwith high hopes from the G 20 meet over the weekend could not even sustain the markets for a day. It was very sad indeed. It just shows that now lower levels once again is imminent. The nifty got hammered quite a bit during the day and even touched 2778, very close to dangerous support of 2740 as given earlier.

The trade ahead : -
On the charts we are sitting on near to very important and delicate supports of 2740 which if broken can show us 2625 in minutes. Such would be the magnitude of the shorting then. The bears have become totally fearless and in the Live forums where I stay and trade along, day traders do not get tensed when the nifty rises, they instead talk of averaging without stop losses. This shows their conviction of seeing lower levels for sure. The way Reliance is sinking once again like in october, things dont look so rosy once again. Added to that, friday night again saw the dow end deep in the red to the extent of minus 338 points. Hence, a small gap down near 2740 can be expected on monday as we are not very far from it as it is at 2810. Hence, all those holding long positions, please be aware that a break of 2740 will take us down to 2625 and then much much lower to test the previous lows of 2250 once again within the coming days. Call writting has happened at 3200 and 3000 levels too.
The eurozone has officially declared itelf into a Recession and there are reports of massive job cuts all over the west. Pakistan has cancelled the License of Foreign currency dealers in a bid to stop the flight of foreign currency from its country. These are not signs to be bullish about ofcourse. My research is showing that the october exports of India are going to be very badly hurt which will be projected in figures around december. Hence, do not think this malaise is going to go away in a month or so. The full effect of the global slowdown will hit India without doubt and it will be reflected in its numbers in 2009. Hence, one can safely assume, the resumption of the bull run is still far far away.
The G 20 meet in Washington has still not come out with anything concrete as of yet and the final outcome of the meet is expected later tonight. However, it appears, they are just endorsing the steps that are already being taken by various governments and what the markets are actually expecting in the form of a huge stimulus package still seems a little far away. There are difference of opinions between the various leaders and for them to come to a consensus will take some time as they look forward to rather interacting with President elect Obama in January. So the darkness still looms ahead for some more time I guess. Howevever, if something big and positive is declared before monday morning, then the downside can be nuetralized.

WELOME TO THE WORLD OF CONFUSED TRADING
8.11.08 NIFTY AT 2973
With bad global cues overnight before fridays trade, who would have thought that we would end in the green by close although most indicators on the charts were bearish. Thats why its necessary to be prepared for both ways movements during trading as no one knows when the trend will change. The dow had already factored in the bad jobless data coming out on friday and sank well on wednesday and thursday and ended nicely in the green on friday. I would say, welcome to the world of confusing trading.
It is indeed becoming difficult to keep overnight positions as although the cues point towards an expected movement the next day, it only surprises and moves the other way, the next day. Added to that, the ratio of volatility is also getting worse. Very difficult to trade for those who are not nimble and quick witted.
There are rumours doing the rounds following the huge rate cut by the Bank of England, the fed too might further reduce its rates lower from 1 % thus paving the way towards 0 % about which I have written long time back. This just shows the immensity of the problem and poor Obama sure has his hands full in coming to office and immediately having to deal with this colossal problem that his country is facing at present. The world is happy to see George bush go and are hoping that Obama will bring some radical changes that will prop up the markets too. But believe me, this bear market is not going anywhere hugely high, what with bad news increasing day by day. Hence, there is no need to hurry to pick up stocks and there is full possibility of seeing earlier lows once again. However, the movements in our markets are going to be quite impressive and erratic too,hence trade cautiously.

27.9.08
CORRECTIONS IN A BEAR MARKET

TOP - BOTTOM - PEAK - BOTTOM - Value - FALL - Period of
YEAR - YEAR - VALUE - VALUE - Of Fall - %AGE - correction

APR 1992 - APR 1993 - 1281 - 600 - 681 - 53% 12 Months
FEB 2000 - SEP 2001 - 1818 - 850 - 968 - 53% - 20 Months
JAN 2008 - So Far - 6357 - 2252 - 4105 - 64.5% - 10 Months

Target of 53 % correction of nifty at 2984 achieved on 23.10.08
Only god knows where the bottom is. In the worsest of case scenario's, nifty can fall maximum to 1800, but dont count on it too much.

As per my exhaustive research of past bear markets, I have noticed one very important aspect which throws great light on the possible bottoms of bear markets. The time, the fed's interest rates come down to 1 %, it could definately be a possible bottom. Most past bear markets have shown this trend. At present, the fed's interest rates are 1.5 %, we have another half a percent to go. Plan out your Long term portfolio accordingly. This is a very big secret I have revealed to my followers today. I hope this information will be of use to you. Now that the fed has brought down the rates to 1 %, I will not be surprised if it even comes down to 0 %, because this bear market is different indeed.

Hello friends,
Some of my online friends have requested me to update my homepage with nifty levels. I will be doing the same after downloading EOD charts everyday and will be giving two support and two resistance levels as for the next day to be traded. Please remember Nifty can go either way on any given day and one should be prepared to trade it as per the trend of the day. I should not be held responsible for anything going wrong as global cues and market internals can take the nifty anywhere inpite of the charts giving contrarian views. I may be proved wrong many times and I would not like to face any flak or reply to any after effects of niftys abrupt moves if it goes against the chart levels. Please remember, charts provide just a channel where the nifty might move and so many factors can change its path anytime. I am against stubborn views on the markets and one should be prepared to see both sides movements of the markets on any given trading day.

Well, I never like to blow my own trumpet, but this is just for inquisitive people. I am just a day trader who only trades in futures lots and a little bit of option trading. I also do momentum trading and mostly swing trading. I never like to trade in delivery stocks coz the investment is greater and also the brokerage is higher, but sometimes I do it when stocks are available at mouth watering prices. Also, in delivery, shorting is a big issue and one tends to get stuck up to trade only in one direction. However, in futures, with less money and bigger leverage at my disposal, I manage to trade in lots much easily. There are better chances in trading in futures as one can trade both up and down directions of the markets to ones advantage. I have started trading since april 2007 only, and in a matter of months made and lost a lot of money too. However, I am a fighter and will not rest until I return victorious from this episode, hence, I am delving deeper and deeper into this chasm of the markets. And mind you, its getting more and more interesting too.
For all new comers to the markets, my message to you is that it is easy to make money in the markets as there is no physical labor involved, however, the mental stress can turn out to be your worst enemy. Hence, you need a strong will and loss sustaining power to fight it out here, otherwise,it can be tough to turn out a winner. You should not run away after loosing money. Mantain a strict regimen for trading and play within your limits with strict stop losses and you may make good money here. So all the best to you all. Happy trading.
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