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Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Greedyone,
Our PM called the RBI governor back home from the US.. LOL LOL ... the IIP numbers are not good there is somethign fishy about summoniing the RBI governor.. take care.. we might fall further....
In reply to:
Baharon ne mera chaman loot kar
Posted by :
greedy_one
Markets falling like nine pins with elections just a few months away.
Whole good work of 4 years and consequent outstanding performance of markets has gone haywire in last year of present government making PM and FM sirs remorse:
"Baharon ne mera chaman loot kar
In aankhon me iljaam kyon de diya
Kisi ne chalo dushmani ki magar
Ise dosti naam kyon de diya"
"Mai samjha nahin aiye
Mere hamnashin
Sajaa ye mili hai
Mujhe kisliye
Ke saaki ne lab se mere chhen kar
Kisi aur ko jaam kyon de diya" 
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Markets falling like nine pins with elections just a few months away.
Whole good work of 4 years and consequent outstanding performance of markets has gone haywire in last year of present government making PM and FM sirs remorse:
"Baharon ne mera chaman loot kar
In aankhon me iljaam kyon de diya
Kisi ne chalo dushmani ki magar
Ise dosti naam kyon de diya"
"Mai samjha nahin aiye
Mere hamnashin
Sajaa ye mili hai
Mujhe kisliye
Ke saaki ne lab se mere chhen kar
Kisi aur ko jaam kyon de diya"...
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear me2 4 india,
Dear friend, first of all let me congratulate you and thank you for READING my messages, you are one step ahead of other readers as you have also done edit copy paste , not only that, you have also spared your valuable time in ANALYZING my messages, have tried to understand what i meant in my messages, have even tried to point out where i may be wrong according to your analysis of my messages, i very much welcome such effort as i have written many times in past, CRITICISM always helps me to SHARPEN my skills.
Friends who wish good always tell you when you are on wrong path or thinking .
Now,
1. I started writing here on mmb in year 2003.
2. This is just a blog where people like you and me with many others write their VIEWS at GIVEN POINT OF TIME.
3. Such write ups are views only, they are NEVER RULES or GOSPELS, while reading them ONE must remember this always that ONE SHALL NOT BLINDLY RELY UPON OR TRUST any message by any boarder, one shall never act upon any message, one must invest own time and energy before taking any decision.
4. You may have missed my yearly charts and other posts of last year.
5. The TURNINGS were posted WELL IN ADVANCE, many readers still remember and were asking for more.
6. Whatever is happening today was ALREADY POSTED MONTHS AGO VERY CLEARLY IN PLAIN WORDS by me.
7. Since this is tech board and assuming you have basic tech knowledge,
Bse 30 index monthly chart last 20 years - macd - has topped out -will make LOWER TOP - THEN at that time tops of year 2008 will be touched or crossed - this is called NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE - please read about divergences as they are forgotten by most chartists conveniently when minds are biased.
8. I reiterate MOTHER OF ALL BULL RUNS IS IN THE MAKING .
9. October 2008 to February 2009 i EXPECT RALLY - target bse30 index 12000-13786-15000, current value 10530 thus probable return 20 to 50 % in next 5 months , with downside risk 9236 to 9445 bse 30 index , 10 % is more than acceptable for me.
more later,
take care, do not play f and o,
Avoid extrapolation, people always fall for that trap , when bse 30 was 21k, everyone was convinced it was going to touch 40k soon but now when it is at 10 odd k, people have started talking about 4k !
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari...
In reply to:
13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall
Posted by : me2_4india
Here are some Ur`s Truly earlier predictions
Urs Truly had predicted (20 Dec 2007, then complete U turn)
Dear Friends,
Today on 20 december 2007 we are just 2 weeks away from monthly and quarterly and yearly CLOSE which is VERY important for any share or commodity or index and therefore must not be ignored completely in EUPHORIA.
Larsen and Toubro LNT and BHEL and RIL leading three shares show in their monthly charts POSSIBLE formation of an EVENING STAR - END of BULLRUN SIGNAL- RNRL and RPL etc many monthly charts are showing signs of weakness. Prices have started trading below simple 3 month moving average levels in some shares . If close is below these levels then a possible corrective phase is ALREADY ON which may last 3-5-8-13 months and maybe more.
WISDOM which is rare these days says one must disinvest from leading counters where such chart patterns are appearing which shows weakness and should invest proceeds in fixed income assets
(I say Dear Friends please highlight the Names RIL, RPL, RNRL are said to disinvest over here, now lets see what is in store in the next message)
And well complete U TURN on 28 DEC 07
Dear friend,
It is an ageold practice.
Whenever market rises or drops, people NEED REASON .
Oh, now this is the reason ! like that.
Actual reason is selling and buying by the smart ones.
I am expecting some DRAMATIC move BASED ON CHART PATTERNS in WHOLE RIL - BOTH BROTHERS - GROUP- maybe a gift or tribute from them to their late father - the legendary gujju Dhirubhai Ambani.
Mad possibilities are, RPL 510-558 and RNRL 260-360
Maybe i am wrong but just have a look at their weekly stoch and similar pattern in recent past !
Many had doubts but ,both brothers have proved they are BETTER than their father- look at marketcap of combined group today and compare it with marketcap when Dhirubhai was there !
Their best gift to their late father.
Whatever people may say , i am always proud of fellow GUJARATIS .
warm regards as always
And well on 29 DEC 08
In the year 2008 if any panic selling takes place in rpl or rnrl their panic supports are , Company panic support cmp target 2 years upto 2010
rpl 120 223 510-558
rnrl 81 178 260-360
Now the Complete U Turn on the Whole market
Dear Bearcartel,
My view at present is,
Yearly open of year 2008 - the 1 Jan open will be pivotal point for whole year. For Wipro it is 522 trend is definitely up and target 576 Jan-Mar08 first quarter.
For others, POSSIBILITIES ARE,
SrnoName PivotalPoint Yearly tgt 1stQuarterly tgt Jan08 tgt
1. Bse30index 20325 27838 23010 21268
2. RPL 225 383.6 300.60 242.45
3. RNRL 183 335.35 280.9 206.55
4. RIL 2890 4386 3372 2982
Dear Chartlover friends,
From the data available, astrological formations, announcements, here is what may happen- Indian Stock market-
MONTHLY CHART
1. January 2008 Big bull candle
Reason : Budget anticipations, Decqtr result announcements
2. February 2008 BIG BEAR CANDLE
Reason : FII shorting the market, liquidity requirements, profitbooking at higher levels - prebudget profitbooking-
Usually when february budget is expected to be good, rally begins in nov-dec and ends in Jan end/feb beginning , makes bottom , makes lower top on budget day when actual announcements come, rises again in march .
FII permitted to short from 1 Feb 2008 and if ACTUALLY market comes down from then onwards, BEARS will also join enthusiastically to cover losses made in last 5 years , result will be weak february close. At that timeYEARLY OPEN will act as pivotal point and NOV07 close as stoploss for bulls.
If march 2008 behaves as expected , MAD BULLRUN will take market to absurd levels- as mentioned in my recent messages- bse 30 index 26000-31000 RIL 3400-3800 etc
BE CAREFUL ALL FRIENDS,
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
3. March 2008 Big bull candle
making sandwich pattern, bearish february sandwiched between bullish Jan- Mar.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Vam,
As per alexander elder, when OI falls along with price, then its very bullish. Longs are taking profits and shorts are covering which means its ready to rise. Thanks for the pointer....
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by :
vam_aru
you are right RN,
If we gap up and showed some stregth till the european markets open then we may see a surge, may be at the end of the day or tomorrow we can buy PUTS.
One interesting stock could be Bajaj Hindustan ( If played with COVERED Call strategies people can make money in this counter , Because on friday the prices fallen by 22 % and the open interest fallen by 31 %, These suggesting this stock stabilizing at these levels and become stronger. )
I have updated the Covered call strategies for LT and BAJAJ Hindustan in my Homepage. Patience investors can try that.
Tracked by: 2 Boarders
Dear ibrar3
Your target is reached. But today there is every chance for an upper circuit. Our DREAMS are also going to be fulfilled. Only 330 p upside is needed of UC in NIFTY.
aahoo...
In reply to:
EXPECT UC IN SENSEX AND NIFTY SHORT TERM
Posted by :
ibrar3
DEAR AAHOO...
hope u r seeing my target of 3200 instead of ur target of 5396???????
ha ha ha... lol...
Tracked by: 3 Boarders
Well there was nothing wrong with the Dow Jones Index in 1930, nothing was wrong with Japan Nikkei in 1990, there was nothing wrong with Nasdaq in 2000, and nothing wrong with Wipro in 2000 (well wipro is trading at 50% down 2000 highs, and it was a growth scrip, not a value scrip). The wrong was with the speculators (I dare say investor, even one who bought with 5 -10 yrs perspective, investor believes in intrinsic value). The media fools into believing long term story, forget World Markets we are different many might say, so have a look at sensex composition of 1980`s, only 5- 7 scrips till maintain there place, many others are trading at what price have a look and than say I u can say I love to be a Long term investor....
In reply to:
Has your confidence in equities been shattered?
Posted by :
Rajiv Mehta
I am an investor and not a speculator. I have a faith that prices of stocks would appreciate by 200% in long term. Beating all other investment avenues. There is nothing wrong with Indian Markets as such. This is due to the sub prime issue which has forced US to withdraw their money from our markets. So don`t panic and stay invested. In case of prices coming down one has three options, can wait for the prices to increase, double the investment and average the portfolio and final option is to switch over.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
you are right RN,
If we gap up and showed some stregth till the european markets open then we may see a surge, may be at the end of the day or tomorrow we can buy PUTS.
One interesting stock could be Bajaj Hindustan ( If played with COVERED Call strategies people can make money in this counter , Because on friday the prices fallen by 22 % and the open interest fallen by 31 %, These suggesting this stock stabilizing at these levels and become stronger. )
I have updated the Covered call strategies for LT and BAJAJ Hindustan in my Homepage. Patience investors can try that....
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
Vam,
I may buy PUTS but i am not going long for sure. NYSE TRIN is at 17. Its really difficult to trade this market.. we can be wiped out....
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Vam,
I may buy PUTS but i am not going long for sure. NYSE TRIN is at 17. Its really difficult to trade this market.. we can be wiped out.... ...
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by : vam_aru
Dear RN,
When you mix ayurvedic terms in stock markets in very hard to understand, Like reading GRE english... lol.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear shakti,
Thank you for your appreciation and compliments.
Another fellow gujjubhai Narendra Modi has shown what GUJARAT and GUJARATIS stand for.
We are always there to help, to eliminate any negative thoughts, to offer SOLUTION to any problem.
When one is willing to work hard and when one is not harming anyone to achieve his or her goals, GOD ALWAYS HELPS.
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari...
In reply to:
13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall
Posted by : sp.palo
Gujju Bhai,
keep up the good work.
regards
shakti
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear Ajaybhai,
Jai Shree Krishna to you.
Hope you are fine and healthy.
BUYING TIME IS ON.
From here onwards that is from 13 Oct 2008 to 17 Oct 2008 week onwards RISK TO REWARD ratio is in favour of BULLS.
Most probable week of turning and i am just amused to see many analysts SUDDENLY realising and remembering 1929 times !
BUY ANYTHING YOU LIKED LAST YEAR, especially GEMS which are yet to SHINE.
Remember the golden rule.Buy above-sell below opn with stoploss at open.
You were the only one who had put my theory in practical by excel software.
Market will IMPROVE NOW ONWARDS TOWARDS FEBRUARY 2009, evenif and inspite of everything .
wish you profits and peace of mind,
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
...
In reply to:
13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall
Posted by : ARB236
Hi, Vipulbhai,
JSK, hope you all are fine and healthy.
Love to kids...and JSK to all other members.
Today I visited MMB after much gap..so I thought let me start with VL`s Post !!
warm regards,
Ajaybhai
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
HONG KONG - AUSTRALIAN and South Korean shares bounced on Monday after policymakers around the world took increasingly bold steps to staunch the bleeding in financial markets, including guarantees on bank desposits and directly injecting capital into banks. Nikkie is closed today,
v.krishnamoorthy...
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear libran,
Now Papu is confused and scared about the free-falling markets whether he should deploy his money in these markets or make an FD with assured returns. He is not able to see the bottom in near future. Once the lost confidence regains, Papu will dance.
shakti...
In reply to:
Papu can`t buy sala...:)
Posted by : libran.
Hi! guys so who is the real papu, one who is selling at these levels or one who are buying at these levels, lets fast forward few years and look back and laugh on these papu FII`s buying stokcs again when sensex might have already gained 30-40%, FII and these funds managers always come to party when stocks are over valued and start selling when prices are undervalued, imagine what would they have earned by withdrawing money from India, when they were buying stocks at 21k levels sensex, and dollar at 40 levels and now selling at 10k levels and when dollars is 48-49 levels. I sometimes feel what intelligence level they have ....India and China even if their is a global recession will be growing at minimum 6% GDP now when all other economies are growin minus and India is growing at 6% money will bound to come back again, so dont be a papu by selling now, make them a papu when they come back at start buying at much higher levels. Happy investing
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Good to say do not depend on Foreign investors, but such large firms went all out ONLY looking for FII funds past so many years and worked only for portfolio as it meant great brokerage income...
In reply to:
India must stop relying on global flows: Uday Kotak
Posted by : MMB Messenger
One Uday Kotak, MD and CEO of Kotak Mahindra Bank, expects this global pain to remain for the next three-five years. He strongly feels India has to stop depending on global flows because those economies themselves are in a problem and said that India needs to start relying more on our domestic savings and domestic ability to build our economy.
Tracked by: 3 Boarders
I agree partly with you. Dont buy stocks that are still in the down wave and bottom of these stocsk may be another 30 % away. like ONGC , it is still to correct , if you see the percent of fall vs crude price fall. Also, OIL PSUs initially fell on Govt Controls but now the price is not justified at USD 80/ barrel since ONGC gets far less than the market price even after considering reduced subsidy. present set up of ONGC, Petroleum Ministry and Petroleum Minister supports only VIMAL , so be careful. Second DLF etc may still drag down on the weight of leveraged and overstated book. Book value of assets are less than 100 and not realisable in reasonable future. Buy only debtfree safehavens . do your own research. There is at least 50 companies in top 500 ....
In reply to:
Has your confidence in equities been shattered?
Posted by : dereckaf
Always check what are you holding. Lehman survived 100 years and reached Zero. In equity, always check what you hold. It was not too big to fail.
For now exit Real Estate and Banking on strength. Add ONGC and Coromandel Fertilizers, Sugar, Tea stocks.
We will have a long period of inflation...... Bad Inflation.... With Oil back to 0.... Gold at 00.
Use Short term bounces to exit the weak stocks.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Its absolute suicidal in Global Financial Market. I prefer to cite two examples :-
1. One Day One Citi Bank agrees to buy Wachovia for 2.1 B USD and makes a statement that Citi is buying Wachovia under the influence of FDIC , US Govt. and will bear MTM loss upto 42 B USD and FDIC , US Govt will make good for any MTM loss above 42 B USD.
Two Day later Wells Fargo (Where Warren Buffet is Huge Shareholder) makes an offer to buy Wachovia @ 16B USD and seek No FDIC, US Govt assistance.
Next Day Citi Bank files for Loss of 20 B USD and damages of 40 B USD a total of 60 B of loss as perceived by Citi Bank.
And I thought Citi is lucky to get out of mess and has actually saved its 42 B USD as loss which it undertook with Wachovia deal under the influence of FDIC, US Govt.!!!!!!
So This is the way valuations are made in credit market in present times.
2. Lehman Bros Mortgage Bond papers were auctioned @ below 9 cent to a Dollar; and these papers are insured for payment in case of default!!! .
What This mean ? I think it suggest that the buyer will get 6 -7 percent PA interest on 1 Dollar and will get its 1 Dollar back during contracted period. Afterall all these papers are guaranteed against defaults!!!
This means 6 cent PA interest on the investment of 9 cents and return of 100 cents over contracted period against the investment of 9 cent. !!!!!
Solution would have been to let Insurance Companies go bust. This would have given a clear massage to bondholders that they must wait for the contracted period and get their EMI as it comes and as contracted and agreed when they made investment, or else they too have liberty to sell out at 9 cent to a dollar.
To my judgment all would have stayed. and this credit crisis would have averted.
Now Stock Market: It is now coming back to its old days of average PE multiple of 10 for the time being. Besides now onward US economy will not be the same as it was and there will be contraction in Global Economy for sure. They (US ) will have less credit and hence less consumption. Now it’s the rest of the world’s time to enjoy the credit and economic expansion after few months or quarters.
Regarding Govt Of India actions : They are totally out to sabotage the Growth , but its buoyancy of Inherent Indian Economy and its entrepreneurs that is creating lots of tension to our FM and RBI.
...
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