Market View

28th July

Posted by : novice1000

hi maam,

I wont be surprised to see a decent( bulls pls spare me) fall in the markets in the month of September 2008.

There are only two things that can prevent a fall.

1)Crude price coming down to below 110 US $ per barrel.

2)SEBI relaxing the the ban on p-notes.

Either of these things prevent a fall in markets.

But p-notes issue will be reviewed by SEBI only after 6 weeks.

So unless crude price comes down to below 110 levels... fall seems to be certain.

But before the fall happens, sensex may see an upside of 400 points.

regards

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : hindlevernet

Dear joetom,

It is a sheer honour to interact with you.
When Nifty was making new highs in January,
I boldly intiated the thread above which is
stil going strong. Since the level of 6357
Nifty had seen low of 3790 in the monnth of
July which is just 5% above my predicted level.

As far as your view of market is concered
( Your observation of Higher Tops and Higher
Bottoms ) I am of the view that it will be
a little pre-mature to declare that it is
start of Fresh Bull Run. My reason for this
statement is that when a new bull phase does
start after long bear market, Index rises
very fast and cash buying along with futures
intensified considerably. Without significant
cash buying, we cannot persume that New bull
run has started. You may notice that although
Nifty may be rising but underlying scrips are
not rising in tendem which means rally is mainly
driven by short covering and intra-day trading.

On the other hand when Nifty falls significantly
on any one day, there is a huge liquidation of
cash shares which signifies that slide in not
mainly due to Fresh Short Positions in Nifty.

In addition to this, I have a strong feeling
that 3790 is not the bottom for Nifty. Index
must fall by at least 41% from its orthodox
top made by Nifty in October which was 6012.
I am of the view that Nifty has to slip below
3600 before market finally bottoms out. But
once the bottom is firmly made, then

I CAN ASSURE YOU BEYOND DOUBT THAT IT WILL NOT
FALL BELOW THAT LEVEL IN OUR ENTIRE LIFE-TIME.

Thanks a million.

For closer interaction and discussion about it,
I give my yahoo ID which is: mittalsecurities

28th July

Posted by : nightowl

RN
have you studied the pattern???
somthing tells me we are heading for a major fall... what does your research show.... i caant really put my finger on it.. its just a gut feel... and when i get these feels im normally right.. though i hope im not... do get back to me..
oove
rits

10....9....8....Countdown on for.CRUCIAL

Posted by : amarakbar

Dear Friends,

My view based on my limited knowledge and experience of markets is,

We are at HISTORIC BREAKOUT probability point for - Stock market in INDIA -
We have seen in last five years fantastic returns on investment observed in many stocks in such a short timespan of 5 to 8 years- we had not even imagined such returns in our whole trading and investing life-

After such bull runs come period of sideways and down moves where stocks change hands -

we are in such down move since last 8 months Jan2008 being month of all time high top - how long this down move will last and when new upward breakout will happen is the most important issue in many minds today.

Technical view-
We are much below YEARLY open of year 2008 thus without doubt in a correction mode / sideways/ down move at present.
Fresh buying is just too scary if yearly outlook is considered.

Let us zoom in - quarterly outlook-
2008 First quarter Jan- Mar 08 was bearish candle
second quarter Apr - Jun 08 was also bearish candle
BUT July - Sep 08 is DEFINITELY BULLISH - we are above open of July 08 in many stocks thus it says - POSSIBILITY of FRESH UPMOVE is VERY MUCH THERE in the offing -
As a chartist , wait for sep 08 close for confirmation is best strategy at present.
If July- Sep 08 is doji with lower leg then a GOOD probability of OCT - DEC 08 Bullish candle resulting into quarterly morning star pattern will arise .

Zoom in further into monthly charts-
Chechout simple 3 month moving average of most leading stocks and you will find that for Sep 08 a bull candle above 3 month simple moving average showing bullish breakout is very EASY as 3 month moving average is very VULNERABLE / POISED for yielding in favour of bulls.

Weekly and daily chart suggest such breakout is JUST AROUND THE CORNER and countdown is already on for probable MOTHER OF ALL BULL RUNS,
Targets RIL 4500
Relcap 5000
RPL 480
RNRL 350
and many more for many other stocks.

Prepare yourselves for new top.

Experience says Operators are long , Morons are short.


Disclaimer-
I hold RNRL and RPL and plan to buy more any stock i like for investment- do your own homework before taking any decision - these are pure personal views - MANY FRIENDS KNOW their MEANING-

warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
This message is my ADVANCE return gift to you all friends and wellwishers as today-
Shitla saptami - vad saptami of shravan is my BIRTHDAY .
Born on a day before LORD Krishna- Jai Shree Krishna- Pranam to Elder friends- Love to younger friends- Jaadu ki zappi to all-
Wish you all profits and peace of mind.

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

oops is that so Nightowl.. i better check my nifty rightaway then.. i have a short position though.. but why u feel that way is it intutive or is it market movement.. is it a hunch or ticker tape reading? Let me update my excel then straight away.

28th July

Posted by : nightowl

RN
have you studied the pattern???
somthing tells me we are heading for a major fall... what does your research show.... i caant really put my finger on it.. its just a gut feel... and when i get these feels im normally right.. though i hope im not... do get back to me..
oove
rits

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

NIFTY: Bearish as far as trend following indicators MACD, ADX go, but the immediate term indicator Elder Ray's bull power and bear says Nifty is bullish and thats something becoz we lost considerably during the last hour of trade. The TRIN is oversold at 0.9 and even if it reflects some shorts, they may not get covered immediately becoz global cues are tepid. We could be volatile and rangebound, lackluster for most part of the day but could spurt anytime becoz of the elder ray indications. I would go long at lows. The MACD buy divergence disappeared with the 3:30 data based on which i bought one 5300 CE but it was present with the 3:15 data.

DOWJONES:Looks bullish per trend following indicators MACD and ADX. The Elder Ray too indicates bullishness as the bull power has increased as compared to 26th July and the bear power has a less negative value indicating bearishness fizzling out. The TRINS are in keeping with the rise and fall from highs. Nothing much to rea off the TRIN

CRUDE: Very very mixed and so could be volatile. For one the ADX has ticked up massively which is scary and very bullish. The MACD too says buy crude, so trend following indicators are bullish on crude. The Elder Ray too is bullish. But the RSI for the second day in a row says SELL CRUDE and there is distribution for the second day in a row which is bearish. Selling on rallies will be the trend in crude today.

FNO Cues: Only september FNO cues are worth tracking now but i need two more days of data to get study the pattern. Give fno cues a miss during expiry and in the first few days of the new contract.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600

Posted by : jonas

NIFTY to take a u turn from monday n reach 4760 by friday the 29th august.

10....9....8....Countdown on for.CRUCIAL

Posted by : amarakbar

dear nightowl,
as you know i never recommend any stock, just [post what i feel or what my view is at any given point of time based on chart, experience or astrology or just plain intuition - mundra is good stock to hold- it is asset based co - will yield results when at full bloom 3 years from today - 2011-12 period.
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari

28th July

Posted by : BearCartel

I dint short but booked profit at last moment of nifty as I thought charts were showing minor distribution...