Week 1-5 september 2008

Last week ended almost as per our estimates and stocks in power, metals and Reliance tumbled on the pressure of expiry week. Reliance tumbled below 2100 whitin just half an hour on the day of expiry which was supposed to happen. Stocks like Reliance, Rcom, Reliance Infra, Reliance Power, SBI, ICICI Bank, Nalco almost achieved the targets mentioned. After heavy unwinding of F&O position thursday, weak hands have moved out of the market and market is likely to go into strong hands and it can easily drive up nifty towards 4650 levels where stiff resistance exists. Next week will be the week of laggards who were unable to move up in the past. Sectors to perform next week (bullish) are Banking & Finance, PSU's, Cement, Steel, Oil and heavy industries. Till thursday next week above sectors will outperform the overall market. Stocks to be bullish are as follows

ICICI Bank
PNB
SBI
HDFC Bank
HDFC
Bank of India
ACC
Ambuja Cements
Grasim
Tata Steel
SAIL
Sesa Goa
ONGC
Reliance Energy
Reliance Power
BHEL
Larsen
ABB
Siemens
Jaiprakash Associates

Following stocks will be neutral to bearish next week

Satyam
Infosys
Wipro
TCS
HCL Tech
Reliance
Reliance Petro
Ranbaxy
(above stocks need not fall immediately but will not go up with the market. Investors should not short above stocks. They should go long on bullish stocks in sectors like banking, cement, Steel etc and should stay away from Tech and mukesh ambani group as mentioned above).

Market can become shaky as it reach it's strong resistance levels going forward which are placed at 4650-4800-4950 levels. Investors and traders should partially book profits at above levels to cut their positions and wait for corrections which will imminent at those resistance levels. Nifty will not cross 5000 levels in immediate term. Resistance for monday will be 4393 levels which will not be very strong and it will be broken.

Wish all of you a happy trading week. I will not be available to all the boarders from 2-10 september on the occassion of Ganesh Festival. Again wish you happy trading day

Note : US market fell sharply on friday. But if there is any reaction in indian markets then it will be short-term buying opportunity rather than selling.




Week 25-29 august 2008

Market closed weak for the week and nifty touched level of 4250 level. As mentioned by in previous message market broke on the downside and closed to the level 4327. Market is still not out of woods as it enters in the expiry week of August 2008 series which expires on 28/08/2008. Market may find new range in the next week. Resistance for nifty for next week is revised to around 4393 level which is very crucial. On the downward side support exists at around 4165 level and it may not break in a hurry. But any negative news can dampen the market and nifty can fall upto 4050 level where strong support exists. Investors can start buying around these levels for short term. Stocks can give attractive returns from these levels. As mentioned last week banking, reality except auto stocks underperformed the overall market sentiments. Cairn India recovered from lower level of around 238.

Next week the market range will be 4165-4393 levels and market will try touch the level of 4165 being a lower band of the range. Next week there is no positive sector except bank (only if RBI does not take any action on rate hike front). Government is still sleeping on the inflation front and is proving how dormant it has. If government failed to control inflation then equities will not survive in the near term. Warfooting steps are required to control inflation and for that government has to compromise on the growth rate. If it is able to control inflation then growth at 5% can be even good which can provide good support for further development of indian market.

For next week market will be bearish and power and capital goods stocks will correct as NSG meet had proved inconclusive as we have mentioned in our most of the messages. Following stocks will be most weak next week.

Reliance Energy
Tata Power
Suzlon Energy
Power Grid
Reliance Power
BHEL
ABB
Larsen
Siemens
Jaiprakash Associates
Reliance Comm
Idea
Reliance
Reliance Petro

Following stocks will be neutral to bullish next week
ICICI Bank
SBI
PNB
HDFC Bank
HDFC
Maruti
Tata Motors
Ranbaxy

Investors should stay from reality stocks like DLF, Unitech, Parshvanath, Purvankara etc.

Wish you happy trading week. Suggestions from all of you are welcome to improve the homepage


Week 18-22 august 2008
Marketemained almost in the range mentioned of 4450-4600 with little breakout on the both the sides. Nifty went up at around 4650 and then sliped immediately. Nifty also broke the lower band and now had closed at 4430. Thus market will head start lower next week on the back of not so great cues on global front. Domestic developments will dominate market and fear of further rate hike / CRR hike will be on the minds of most of the traders. Market may open down on monday and may recover little bit and will fail to sustain the recovery and selling can come at higher levels. 4165 level is crucial from technical point of view. Traders should keep stop at around these level to avoid further losses. Next week banking, reality and auto stocks may face drubbing from traders. Metals may recover a bit but will succumb to the selling pressure and loose in the later part of the week. Cautious market with negative bias may weigh on the sentiments. Market also may face the negative rollovers to the next series of F&O. Thus further shorting may drag the stocks lower levels.
Cement, Oil, Mining, heavy goods sectors may outperform the market and may inch up.

21/08/2008

Market had closed on 20/08/2008 on positive note but rally was lacking conviction as it was on the base of low volumes, This rally will fizzle out tommorow and on days to come and market will fall sharply towards 4165 nand then 4000 levels. Thus buying should be postponed to next week to avoid more losses.


Following are the stocks which can be bullish or bearish according to us.

Bullish
ACC
Ambuja Cements
Grasim
Infosys
Satyam
Cairn

Bearish
ICICI Bank
SBI
PNB
Tata steel
SAIL
Maruti
Tata Motors
RNRL
IFCI
Reliance Comm.
Bharti
Idea
Reliance Energy
Tata Power
Power Grid
NTPC
Reliance Power
BHEL
Thus market must sustain above 4165. If it fails to remain above this level then it can head towards 3950 and then 3800-3850 levels where strong support exists. These movements can come within short span time as market has became heavy on the bull side and this can prompt unwinding of the positions in most of momentum stocks which can provide opportunity for the short term. These Stocks are RNRL, IFCI, Nagarjuna Fert, Chambal,Oswal, Ispat,Arvind Mills, Ashok Leyland.

Wish all of the traders and investors a happy trading week