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Market View
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
latikav-Right now there is a fear complex!!So far no Banks/Financial Institutions/Insurance Companies have failed!!The Bond Market borrowers are paying on time!!Hope no reversal takes place in this position as it would lead to panic and a Run on Banks(ICICI Style)!!As a bear market really gets rolling, fear turns to desperation, desperation turns to panic, panic turns to capitulation, and capitulation turns to despondency.Finally, despondency morphs into depression, just as the market begins to turn higher. We think it is clear that we have seen panic and capitulation over the last couple of weeks.So in last few weeks,there was a look of despondency and depression on the faces of Equity Investors!!So now we are likely to get into a very interesting phase,in which no one can predict which ways the Markets are headed to!!India still has internal consumption and growth story!!But the constant FII Selling,rising dollar,low liquidity,high interest rates,inflation & loss of investor confidence are playing topsy turvy with Indian Markets,setting them up for a"Roller Coaster"ride!!...
In reply to:
Economic crisis-Dos and don’ts ...........
Posted by :
latikav
Dos and don’ts
• Economic crisis. market meltdown. rising interest rates. rising inflation... times are, indeed, tough. Here are 10 recommendations on what you should and shouldn`t do to keep your financial health on track.
What you should do
• Follow the news. Swinging markets and new regulatory initiatives... things are changing quickly. Each development affects different sectors differently. Follow the financial media-and Business Today`s Money section, for instance-to keep abreast of the latest developments in India Inc. and for advice on how to profit from them.
• Get your finances in order. There has never been a better time to make a budget and start paying off your debt and credit cards, personal loans, etc. If possible, transfer your loans from a bank that`s charging a higher rate of interest to one that promises a cheaper rate.
• Rethink your plans to retire. If you`re expecting to retire soon, consider holding off for a while, if possible, until things calm down. That will give you time to reassess and, if need be, modify your plans.
• Call your financial adviser. With end-of-the-year tax planning an annual ritual, now is a good time to make an appointment with your tax adviser, no matter what the economic outlook. He or she may have some advice on how to tweak your finances as you ride out the current storm.
What you shouldn`t do
• Bail out. Dumping your stocks or equity mutual funds now, when values are especially low, will guarantee that you turn paper losses into real ones. Even if there`s more downside to come, staying on course often pays off during times of economic uncertainty.
• Stop saving. Those regular contributions you`ve been making to your savings or retirement accounts are an important part of good financial discipline, and there`s no reason to stop them now. We`ve long recommended the virtue of making regular, monthly savings. Continue this habit, even if it means cutting down on other things. like the weekly family outing, or that after-office drink with friends.
• Speculate. While lower prices of shares, create opportunities, speculation can get you into big financial trouble. Avoid it.
• Take on new debt. Be careful about acquiring new debt. Economic downturns can affect job stability and investment incomes, making it difficult to determine how much debt you can handle. If you must borrow, say, to put a child through college or to buy a house, be doubly sure that you`ve examined all the options and risks.
• Stop living. Although these times demand extra caution, there`s such a thing as over-reacting. So, don`t overreact. Reflect carefully and, where necessary, adjust. But don`t stop enjoying the little things of life. You`ll only make yourself sad.
Business Today.......... 
Tracked by: 109 Boarders
Yes dear hindlevernet ur absolutely right. Bcoz technically if nifty not bounce back from 3483 level, it may go down 3260 and 3000 level within couple of days/months. Downside target of sensex is 9000-7500. Everyone is waiting for some miracle now. Bcoz almost 60 to 70 percent loss from capital investment in direct equity market. Nobody was expecting these level from 21000 level....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Hi ank,
Thinking in terms of Nifty at 2750 and Sensex at 9000
will be more realistic.
Think of shorting. Think of Put Options in the climate of
doom and gloom
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Our markets and outflows:
Yesterday’s Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) figure was not so bad, it was just Rs 680 crore. My sense is though that it is far from drying out it would be folly to think that FIIs are selling. You could have expected given this panic for them to sell half a billion a day but they are selling a couple of USD 100 million because I believe they can’t sell any more. There is nobody standing to absorb the paper, which they are putting into the market. Therefore, they can only sell that much. There is nobody standing at the other end anymore.
If you look at the internals and the futures and options, the most distressing sign is that there is a huge amount of bear hammering which is beginning to happen not reflected in the Nifty futures but if you look at individual stocks, the way Infrastructure Development Finance Company Ltd ( IDFC), National Thermal Power Corporation Limited (NTPC), Hindalco Industries Limited and Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals Limited (Chambal Fertilisers) etc. adding open interest, I think it is just suggesting that the bears know that the bulls don’t have a hope in hell against them at this point in time and that might add a lot of pressure to individual stocks. It doesn’t matter what the Nifty does or whether the Nifty remains at a premium because of the cash market selling but individual stocks are seeing a huge amount of bear hammering at this point.
For the Nifty, we have already started most active option yesterday was 3,400 put, so the market has probably moved around to the view that in the near-term that’s the level to play for. So 3,400 could come sooner than later.
Should we be braced for worst?
I have been talking about a pullback rally this week but so far it’s not come. It seems terribly oversold to me but with the Dow falling at 5% a day, I hope in the next two days there will be a bounce back. But it’s conceivable that the earlier pattern that I was hoping would play out that we go to 3,600-3,500 at least pullback once to 3,800-3,900 and then if we have to fall, we will fall again to lower levels. That pullback also may not materialise; it looks like we maybe headed one way down to 3,400-3,300. So it’s surprising this continuous intensity of the fall.
This morning we start probably at 3,500 sub-3,500 level so you will see 3,400 something on the screen flashing which is a stuff you do not want to see in this kind of sentiment. From there I do not know whether the shorts will take profits etc but its difficult to even predicts this pullback rallies or modest pullbacks in the market. I hope sincerely for the market sake that in the next two days there will be a global pullback from extremely oversold levels but I do not know. We could be headed towards 3,300 first or 3,400 first before any kind of a pullback materialises.
Everything is turning on its head -whether it is volatility etc is just getting thrown up in the air?
As I said it is the bear market in full flow, one should expect to see all of these things happen. For people who have seen, have been around 3-4 years I don’t think this will surprise them because this is exactly the same things that happened in the last bear market. We have just forgotten about it. We had a five years of a roaring bull market and we told ourselves that this will continue forever, this time it is for real and the next 20 years we will have a structural bull market in India but it is a reminder that things don’t quite work like that. This is nothing but just a bear market in full flow and all things will come to head. One will keep talking about value but nobody will buy, so it’s a tough situation.
What one worries about right now is while our financial system is not too bad whether there could be some small accidents happening because some scalps are always claimed in a bear market and it doesn’t pass with everybody standing a the end of it. You have started hearing the first rumblings of Fixed Maturity Plans (FMP) defaults and stuff and I think you will probably see more along those lines.
There could be some problems in real estate and I think you will hear about a couple of accidents there as well. Infact I wouldn’t be surprised if a few brokers’ even prominent brokers go bust. I am sure lots of jobs are being lost already on the street but I suspect that some of the prop books will also be out on the street right now. So some of the smallcap, midcap bleeding that you are seeing, some of it is because of Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) selling but some of it is because a few of the brokers who owned these stocks, are going belly up. So brokers going bust, jobs getting lost, FMPs probably are seeing some defaults, real estate accidents. I don’t think we will come to banks but I think a few scalps will be claimed by the time this is done.
-Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor,CNBC TV18...
In reply to:
Situation grim for Indian markets
Posted by : Udayan Mukherjee
Another day, same story - the Dow plunged 5% overnight, the S&P was down nearly 6% -percentage point. There is complete mayhem across global markets; Asia is plunging, no resilience here today; all markets are down between 3-5%. So we are waking up to another difficult morning across global markets, chances are hard too in the Indian markets.
The CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio) cut, the P-Note changes have come and gone not made much of a difference to the market.
Today is the last day of the sun outage. So after today, trade will end the regular time but the sun seems to have gone out of our market. We seem to be living in permanent sun outage nowadays in any case.
Asia hasn’t shown anything by way of resilience?
One can understand the pattern when the Dow sells off 300-400 points, Asia tries to think that next year there will be a bounce and in the evening it figures out that the Dow fell 5% more. So the continuous and respite free fall in the US market is now beginning to worry Asia very much. So don’t expect any kind of near-term decoupling happening but things are too bad across the US and you heard what the Fed chief was saying yesterday, short of saying that, “we have had it.” He said it all. We will probably fall some more and you can see that no levels are being held out by the Nifty.
The thing is this is the bear market in full flow; we have seen stops and starts in the bear market over the last few months now it’s flowing like a river. It reminds you of October to December last year for the bull market where it was just a classic bull market in full flow; it was like a flood and now we are seeing the bear market in full flow. Stock prices know no bottom; developed markets are falling 5-7% a day. This is classic bear market stuff. I hope at some point this will end because you are seeing the classic signs of the panic play out but who knows when it will stop.
Asian Indices:
Asia is not a good picture today. The Nikkei is down 5% and Japan has been actually falling much more than some of the other Asian markets of late. China is down 3%, Hang Seng is down nearly 6%, other markets are not a whole lot better; let us say average 4% cuts across Asia.
On global news:
I think what the Fed said last night would have injected a fair amount of panic into the system again because when Ben Bernanke says that growth outlook has worsened and now the problems will spillover to next year, we are just prolonging the problem. I do not think the Fed anymore is saying that we are working and therefore the financial crisis is close to an end. The pain is close to an end for bottoming out, none of those kind of statements reassuring to the market are coming in anymore.
Conversely what is actually happening is that they are painting a fairly dire picture for the next few quarters and no longer just the next few weeks and months. The financial news continues to be unequivocally bad, Bank of America problems, Morgan Stanley in problems so that is also not ebbing while the economic news continues to get worst.
The kind of damage that we are seeing is also quite unprecedented. People do not panic or freak-out only because they are seeing bad economic news. What the screen is telling them everyday must be worrying them the most because it is a free fall. When was the last time you woke up every morning to see 4-5% cuts on the Dow? Since the bailout package got broached, the Dow was down 15% i.e. 15% in the Dow Jones index in just a few days after a bailout package gets proposed and passed. That is the kind of damage.
I do not think anybody, any market forecaster even a month back was talking about a sub-1,000 S&P. we are at 996 on the S&P. That is extremely disturbing and distressing for everybody across the world. 9,500 on the Dow is here. That is leading to a fair amount of panic in the system.
The bigger fear now is that even if rate cuts do happen, which is now a foregone conclusion-let us not kid ourselves that the Fed may or may not cut rates, the Fed will have to cut rates there is no other option. The market may just spend lip service for a day celebrating and then fall once again because it just ignored everything positive which has been thrown at it, bailout package included and it is not making any difference because the market has got into a state where it has convinced itself that this situation has to play itself out overtime. There is no short fix for it; there is no short-term band-aid repair which any regulator can do. At best they can throw stuff to just revive sentiment temporarily but this will not go away in a week or two weeks or a month given regulatory action. That is the big fear that even after Europe and US cut rates; we may still continue to fall from market perspective.
-Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor,CNBC TV18
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Where are the experts? where are supprot levels? Can anybody answer please? Its time fin services organisations get wiser and stop predicting or giving tips.
Let us look at some axioms of wise investment parameter for minimising losses and making money in good times
1 Axiom1: PE more than 20 is risk
2 Axiom2 : market cap more than turnover is risk
3.Axiom3 :dividend payout less than 2.5% of market value is to viewed as risk
4. Axiom4: non profit earning compamies should not have market valuation more than Par/book value
5. Axiom5: Future discounting of earning is ridiculous- should not be more than 20 of present discounting
6. Axiom6: IPO should be at PAR vlue or book value, not a premium
If this Axioms are followed, then your investment is safe,Atleast follow 75& of these axioms for sound investment decision.
You will see that evetually the markets will come down to this level for future growth....
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Crude is trading at USD 89.71 per barrel down USD 0.35 after Tuesday’s gain following the slump in equity markets and demand concerns. ...
Capitulation!! Buying Opportunity Galore!!!
Market Analysis - Technical View
Posted by : chief_kamaniTracked by: 0 Boarder
hembhat-I feel that"Fear Complex"is slowly building up!!Lets hope that we are slowly coming to the end of this process!!Lets hope that the Sun will shine brightly tomorrow!!Roping in FII`s seems t be the biggest mistake ever committed!!So when no one(Indians)have money,these opportunusts(FII`s and Hedge Funds)will scoop in to take the bacon home(Quick and Easy Money)!!...
In reply to:
Capitulation!! Buying Opportunity Galore!!!
Posted by : hembhat
You described it correctly. But we are yet to see capitualtion of index heavy weights. Midcaps & small caps have been cut to size, so downside is not so great as compared to hwat heavy weights have in store. Nifty has to touch 3000. This will be gradual process, like slowly killing medicine. The survivors will see the light at the end of tunnel.
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India Considering Further Easing Overseas Borrowing Rules For Firms
India Has No Plans For Sovereign Bond Issue - Fin Min Official
...
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear amar,
markets may touch 3200. so wait for some more time before entering. Anyways small buys are advisable.
shakti...
In reply to:
BUY NOW WITH ALL CASH 8 oct 08
Posted by : amarakbar
Dear Friends,
11 am 8 October 2008 bse 30 is at 10838 and nifty 50 at 3360.
NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY WITH ALL THE STRENGTH , instead of being scared or too greedy or too oversmart.
Logic says after such swift downmoves , bottom is very near and may be now in less than 5 trading days market will start its recovery.
wish all my readers profits, peace of mind and happy diwali.
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
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HDFC BANK DROPS 9.73 PCT, AXIS BANK TUMBLES 13.45 PCT, SBI DOWN 5.33 % As Banking Shares Fall On Global Financial Crisis...
Tracked by: 109 Boarders
Dear sp.palo,
Not sure as of now.
YEN DOLLAR ratio is below 100 now!
let us hope for the best!
Those who are risk prone or prone to heart attack should stay away from the market!
Gud luk & happy investing! ...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : sp.palo
BSR,
you know what ? The supports of Sept will act as Resistances in Nov.
The markets are really bleeding.
Where is the end ?
Shakti
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Hi
As the markets are witnessing new lows,I think it is the best time to Invest.So,which are the best picks fundamentally,if I have an investment of 1-1.5 lacs for a 3-5 year horizon?
Regards
GS...
Tracked by: 109 Boarders
BSR,
you know what ? The supports of Sept will act as Resistances in Nov.
The markets are really bleeding.
Where is the end ?
Shakti...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Dear sp.palo,
Let us hope that those BIG PLAYers PLAY the GAME sensibly!
Certain stocks in certain sectors have started becoming Dirt Cheap.
YEN DOLLAR ratio is below 101 now.
Let us hope for the best!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
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Punita Kumar Sinha of Blackstonefeels that the curbs on Participatory-Notes is a good move but there are certain risks attached to it as well. She, thus, feels that the long-term players will use this route in a substantive way.
...
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The support for the Sensex is 11150 and the resistance to the up move is at 12152- 12352....
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50-Share NSE Index Trading Well Below 3400 Mark, Down 235 Points On Concerns Of Foreign Withdrawals As A Looming Global Recession Sent Overseas Markets Reeling.
-R M India courtesy ...
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