Market View

Retail investors exiting on rallies

Posted by : TrueCompanion

A lucky and determined few should be carrying with them a good lot of companies, once the Nifty crosses 3000.

Market to see carnage worse than Oct ???

Posted by : investor11

Shankar Sharma the most accurate projector analyst of thais year and the biggest bear does it again
In cnbc channel he has repoerted saying late dec and jan market to see very big fall bigger than what we have seen in oct
This he attributed this to expected poor earning by corporate
Please put your valuable opinion on this to help boarders to save their hard earn money

Market to see carnage worse than Oct ???

Posted by : technoway

hi marketbear im technoway, has the nifty f topped today or still it can come up n break the top. ig yes any hight for nifty f ur predicting. also some one has told me abt great volatility on monday any range for nifty futrs 4 today n monday

Market to see carnage worse than Oct ???

Posted by : technoway

hi marketbear im technoway, has the nifty f topped today or still it can come up n break the top. ig yes any hight for nifty f ur predicting. also some one has told me abt great volatility on monday any range for nifty futrs 4 today n monday

NIFTY = 4750 & SENSEX = 15000

Posted by : MALAYALI

Both RBI`s & Govt`s stimulus packages WILL impact market sentiment 100% positively. Its a SURE call. Next week... the climax of BULL RUN. MALAYALI

Retail investors exiting on rallies

Posted by : alokvarshney52

well said. If any person, like Shankar Sharma, who predicts the market trend with 100% accuracy, must have contacts with some groups which are controlling the markets for last few months. I think nobody can predict with such accuracy that too every time. It is a serious matter. SEBI should take a note of it.

Market to see carnage worse than Oct ???

Posted by : marketbear

you are right. But this time whatever he is talking is absolutely right as market have negatives more than positives this month. One is uncertain global markets. Second is assembly poll results and third is uncertainty of stimulus package. Thus we can safely assume that market will not go up sharply from here but can easily come down from these levels. It will be better to buy stocks if sold at these level at lower levels later. This is the right strategy in the current market. Your strategy of selling part quantity is also right so that bus could not be missed if their is a rally. But certain times if there is full conviction about the fall then entire quantities should be sold. I have saved my portfolio in a great way by cutting the portfolio at level of 19000. Even markets touched 21000, I didn`t worried and bought as many puts in options segment and rest of the things happened in january itself. Our market has yet not bottomed out but may soon bottom out within some months. At those times stocks with sound fundamentals should be definitely added into portfolio.

best regards

Anybody??

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

Folks,

ALl indicators are bullish and naturally so coz we had a such a big rally.

But remember the TRIN is overbought at 0.16... of course i have seen TRINS of 0.01 too...but remember such overbought TRINs would mean profit booking when the rally is sufficiently good... So a 300 point rally may induce a sell off...so should we sell 3000 calls?

Also is it wise to short AUTO HC both look bearish

HC = health care

In view of GM going bankrupt and an overbought TRIN would the first sell off happen in Auto???

NIFTY = 4750 & SENSEX = 15000

Posted by : MALAYALI

Profit Booking from BUY positions, & Fresh (intraday) SHORTING visible. I think this FRESH SHORTERS may cover it, today itself at 2.30 PM. MALAYALI : next monday 8/12/2008 = BULLISH

NIFTY = 4750 & SENSEX = 15000

Posted by : Guest

I dont see Nifty breaching 3250/2500 on a closing basis. But u are completely wrong on the S&P predictions. S&P will go below 700 (like Shankar Sharma is predicting as well) in 2009, but certainly NOT in JAN 2009. If you have been watching the history of US markets, bear markets always have counter trend rallies. Rite now, US market is in the grips of a counter trend rally that is possibly going to take the S&P to 965 odd levels and the Dow to 10007. Beyond this is anybody`s guess, if S&P manages to overcome the 965 resistance (Honestly, I personally do not subscibe to the view that S&P will break this resistance) then Dow and the S&P may go all the way to its 200 day EMA.

So in all likelihood, the US market is expected to rally to 965 levels some time in Jan/Feb/Mar. That is a sold move of 14% from yesterday`s closing of 845. Then, sometime next Spring/Summer, the US market will create the lows for 2009 - I am guessing around 666, while the likes of Shankar Sharma and a few others as well feel it is 600.

Since Asia and India tends to be tag in line with the Dow/S&P, there is no possibility of the 2008 lows breaking until the Summer of 2009. So your predictions of 2200 is very unlikely to happen in this expiry. Chances are that the Nifty may trend higher to the 3200 levels and depending on the Dow/S&P breaking 10007/965, it may move even higher.

Mkts to trade volatile; Nifty may touch 2,850

Posted by : Udayan Mukherjee

Today, will pave the way for an eventful weekend. There are expectations of policy changes both on the fiscal as well as on the monetary front. Indian markets are focusing more on the internal issues. There is a meltdown in commodities as well.

Markets may witness a touch of volatility today as well because traders will adjust positions going into what could be an important weekend. It could reach the previous resistance levels of 2,850 and move from there.

Asian Indices:

Asia is mixed but a couple of markets are doing very well like the Hang Seng which is up 2%, the Korean market is up a couple of percentage point as well. The others are a bit mixed, China is down somewhat, the Nikkei has not made a big stride. So it is mixed but there are a couple of markets, which have not done too badly.


On rate cuts, packages:

In a confusing kind of a global equity situation, there are suddenly a lot of triggers in a quiet December. There is rate cuts happening then there will be some kind of a bailout with the auto companies and the US market has been just tossing and turning. I don’t think you can make much sense of what the next big move is for the next three weeks or so. At least the S&P 500’s moves are a bit confusing for the last few days.

We keep talking about the US data, the interesting take away like we were talking about China yesterday - is a very slight bit of divergence which is creeping in between Asia and the US. If you look at the last six days - you just get a sense of a trading drift now. The MSCI-Asia index in the last six days has actually upped 1% while the S&P 500 is down 5% in that period.

It is not conclusive or a huge data point or anything but once the Asian markets have gone up 1% on average, the US is down 5%, so you can see that the moves are not strictly correlated and Asia is trying to put in slightly better performance over the last few days. I don’t know whether that will last very long but you can see the effort.

Now I don’t know whether this is because some of the long only kind of money is beginning to seek value in emerging markets across the board in Asia and whether that buying or the absence of deleverage or that kind of panic redemption led selling, that has subsided a bit across Asia, which is why stocks are not falling quite so much. It is difficult to ascertain what could be leading to this show of resilience in Asia but it is there for you to see the way China is moving, how some of the other Asian markets are sometimes not falling with their US cues. So it is interesting to keep an eye out there and see what is going on but otherwise it is a bit confusing I must concede.

On commodities:

Commodities are falling not because of any large currency moves, the dollar has also been in a tight range these last few days, and it is not like the dollar is going on a huge rally spree or is collapsing. So, the dollar-euro is relatively tight, the dollar-yen is also 93-95 relatively tight. So, commodities are falling because of underlying demand and economic assumptions.

What is interesting in the last few days is that commodities and stocks are not quite moving in the same direction, as they have been for the last few weeks and months. So, when you have big commodity collapses the markets also gets equally worried and both of them fall at the same time. But you can see on many of these days today is a example, where commodities have sold off completely but Asia is putting up a bit of a fight that the US fell, so there are interesting divergences which are emerging between different equity markets between different asset classes, which makes the picture a bit more confusing for sure.

As an equity investor, I don’t think you can take a whole lot of relief away from it the way commodities are collapsing because that is telling you what a lot of these investors feel about how economic things will pan out over the next few months and quarters and I think that inference cannot be comforting for even equity market participants. Of course commodity consuming market etc can derive some comfort from it, but generally the cause if you focus on that makes you a bit nervous.

We were super-divergent yesterday does it seem like the Nifty is set for higher levels?

The internals are interesting because you have got once again – on one hand you have got quite a bit of buying on the Nifty futures, which has happened from the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and that probably tells you that they are also playing for this package kind of a trigger so in the next couple of days we might see some kind of an upside. So, yesterday almost 800 crore of Nifty futures buying happened from the FIIs, which tells you that they are also warming up to that trade. I think shorts are in a bit of a corner right now because of the events, which lie ahead hopefully.

-Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor,CNBC TV18

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : sd3

ICIC is the barometer Sanju .

observer how it behaves around 384 and we can get idea on overall plan for the index .

sd3

NIFTY = 4750 & SENSEX = 15000

Posted by : MALAYALI

Support 2660 Nifty spot Levels. MALAYALI recommending for partial profit booking from BUY position. MALAYALI

NIFTY = 4750 & SENSEX = 15000

Posted by : MALAYALI

Support 2660 Nifty spot Levels. MALAYALI recommending for partial profit booking from BUY position. MALAYALI