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NIFTY future now 3500 call givent at 3410
courtesy stoxandmore...
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Dear Aru,
Thanks for info.So you think one can still wait for some more time for taking posn in puts if any?Regards...
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by :
vam_aru
I think Markets may be bouncing little more, as DOW jones suggesting 330 point upmove, and SGX might have already closed.. but it will very close to our nifty rate. even tomorrow we might bounce.
http: //stquote. sgx. com/live/dt/DTFuture.asp?INFE
Dow jones futures and other european markets
http: //money.cnn. com/data/premarket/index.html
( remove the space and open these links )
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
HI
DID ANY ONE TOOK RISK AND BUYED CALLS IN THE MORNING !!!!!
HLN, I HOPE U HAVING UR BLOODBATH.
Posted by: SANJU786 on (12-Oct-08 19:04 )
CONFIRMED INFORMATION
FROM A STOCK OPERATOR AND ALSO FROM A FAMOUS ASTROLOGER.
NIFTY WILL BE ABOVE 3800 AND SENSEX ABOVE 12500 BY OCTOBER END.
TRADE ON UR OWN RISK !!!
REGARDS
SANJU
...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Dear Sanju786,
Technically, that is possible close to the FED Meeting at the end of October!
Let us hope for the best!
I myself do not like this Dirty Game PLAYed by those BIG PLAyers resulting in those RED spots everywhere!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
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Market Observations and Thoughts :
Crude no more seems a consideration for market moves like before as it has already gone below and achieved a tgt of 85 which was our consistent view so no more updates on it unless something unusual comes in.
Gold :
Gold technically had been seeing good resistance around 920 + zones and has taken a quick beating as money seems to be coming out of it. On the lower side 815-820 is an important range zone if it breaks could lead to 780 also.
The glossary of economics,inter-relations, coupling is just getting huge in size .
Can CRR cuts of 50 and 150 bps be followed by a repo rate cut ?? , Crude staying below 80s for months impact GDP ?? , Inflation to dip quickly by next year , Lower GDP growth targets , Are IIP nos conclusive, MFs ,Pension Funds , long term stable FIIs waiting for stability to pump money, Low delivery volumes but high M2M settlements in FNO why so , Futures still not settled by delivery in India , Bailout for Airlines and other industries , Real estate market to see a major meltdown and freebies already given, FD rates will soon peak make some for long term etc etc ... Long list for India.
US ,UK , Europe , IMF to take unusual steps to increase liqudity , unfreeze credit , Inter-Bank rates zooming can they be cooled of , collateral damage to be insured , capital injections in return of equity , Shorting malpractices found , De-leveraging of high positions in Gold to pull out cash , Scams to be found etc etc Longer list for world .
Randomn Sunday Thoughts :
The markets have tanked heavily in the last one week and suddenly there are many economists who are predicting an economic depression and some who prefer a 12-18 months recession. I am not a good judge of economics though but the view of Sept/Oct to see all skeletons out was biased with technicals and we have seen that happen to an extent more then what we thought. I do read a bit on global economic views but all the time the economist come out with excellent views but timing dont seem to match with market movements and appear prophetic in hindsight. 2006-2007 saw lot of critics of credit scenario and the boom is over but we saw the market continue to boom to get over months or a year later and then came the slowdown. Crude was a blockbuster at 120-140s with tgts of 250 and super spikes which actually got finished at 150 as per price and at 80-100s tgts of 50 as demand drop came up so maybe a demand drop is almost getting over .
Now suddenly am reading a lot of economists speaking on recession is in place and a recovery may take 12-18 months but not many give a starting point so havent understood when the rough weather ends. Can we say that the recession in market prices is almost over as the lag or early view by economists seen historically. But we may see effects of the slowddown in the industry , economy , jobs and other scenarios as generally markets factor in things before they happen. Although we are not looking from a depression point of view coz i havent seen it in my lifetime and neither know anything about it so cant discuss on it or whether we should even think about it. But yes in a slowdown or recession the best way to stay comfortable to live prudently, make contigency provisions and be ready for some temporary consequences like job layoffs, salary cuts or other difficulties which may or may not be seen but precaution helps.
Markets are a great indicator of the economic scenario is what i feel. Just looking back when markets corrected in Jan we saw corporates like ICICI and others cut bonuses , promotions in March later on further drops we saw mid cap IT cos go on a layoff mode and pink slips. So at a further correction now can we see salary cuts, layoffs in other industries, lesser job options ?? ( things to ponder on )to stabilize the over growth of opportunities we had before and then we can embark on much better times after this normalization and faster if India gets a much softer landing into this rough weather .
Although such a scenario could be beneficial for IT cos and other Manpower businesses with high attrition rate as that may slowdown and man power costs may get in control to stem business downfall. Also historically in such normalizations we do see better and bigger growth opportunities i remember in 2001-2003 IT engineers saw huge probs in job opportunities and placements ( engineering time personal experience of seniors ). But later we saw super-placements in 2004-2008. Can this cycle happen for MBAs/CAs or some other professions who got high growth ?? coz of financial boom and see a little dip then bigger growth ?? ( things to ponder on) .
All above thoughts are randomn thoughts which just came out without adequate research and could be highly amateurish and may not be conclusive enough.
for more search Nooresh on google.....
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Sensex Technical View :
The preferred technical view that Sensex may take a bounce back from 10900-11500 has not gone in tandem with market moves. The next important technical levels are 9700-9500 which is the 61.8% correction which was a scenario taken in case there is much more selling seen and possibly we could give a bounce before going there. Sensex has touched 10200 almost and needs to be seen whether it goes to 9500-9700 or lower zones or gives a bounce from here and then consolidate at lower levels. On the long term charts 8799 the low made around 2006 and 2600 on Nifty are of supreme importance for the long term bull run. Continue to watch these levels and reactions.Once we see a bottom formation or hints of it we can cover views on how recovery periods were historically.
Although the timing of buying must have not been appropriate at 11k-12k levels, but as being repeated we have confined our investments to 50-60 % max which does leave us a good scope to buy on lower side in bargains or reduce investments at bounce backs for more comfort. Many stocks picked up would be down 10-30 % from acquisition pricce as buying has been looked in a staggered manner,small lots and we still do have some more apetite to buy and have strictly avoided real estate , pvt banks, capital goods in our preferred stocks and the selected ones do have the more chances of participating well in any bounce backs.
Majority of the value erosion has been seen in Real estate down 80-95 % , Pvt Banks and Capital goods have also seen major erosions. I have been very strict on avoiding these as these stocks may take lot of time to even give decent bounce backs and in real estate stocks total value erosion. In other stocks invested at sub 13k levels investors maybe seeing notional losses for the partial quantities but these stocks have good chances of coming back in stable times. But in real estate stocks the risk is going the 2000-2003 IT way. But high risk investors can take a risk buy 3-5 stocks of real estate companies like DLF,HDIL,Unitech,JP Associates etc at 15-5 % of peak slowly as somehow i feel these companies remain in business in next 2-4 years at least one or two may end up giving such returns to sidetrack losses of those who dont , and yes it will require patience and Risk.
For more search Nooresh on Google.....
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Today i spotted one more volatility stock, that is Core projects & technologies, on friday it was down around 43 %, and today already 48 % down, Just imagine This is F & O traded scribe, from 300 to 74 in one and a half trading session, Imagine the persons who would have bought at 300 in F&O, and imagine the persons who would have sold the F & O contarct at 300 on friday ( the lot size is 750 ), They would have made 225 * 750 = 170000 rs in one lot...
what a voltility, the stock now is at 74....
one should keep away from this stock, as this might be operator driven like Akruti nirman..
...
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
I have 2 4200 CE at Rs 48... thats a loss of Rs 4800 and in the beginnign of october i played intraday and lost some money... so i am waiting for the right put or call after market direction becomes clear to make good these losses... until then i cannot touch the rest of my capital.... lets see if i can get some cheap calls or puts if i have a strong hunch about market direction.. right now i feel at best it will consolidate and at worst it can fall, but going up i doubt.
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dear vam,
u were right in ur calculations.many many thanx,i wud never hav had the guts to buy nifty call if u had not suggested,can i buy another call of 3700 or3800.
regds rashmi...
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by : vam_aru
I think today one can go long for the 100 point upmove, Europe and USA futures show a significant upmove.. now..
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Tata Teleservices has started restructuring its capital by writing off
51.41 bln rupees in losses and unabsorbed depreciation. (Mint)
...
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Axis Bk up 11%; Q2 net 4.03 bln rupees vs 2.28 bln..........
Nifty fut tgt 1 achived call give at 3410 now 3454 Axis bank and Icici Bank calls are doing very well and achieved target ....
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Worldwide crisis plans face acid test in Asian markets...
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by : sambala
Coordinated plans on bank crisis should work, IMF head says
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Leading economies now have coordinated, detailed and comprehensive plans to resolve the severe credit crisis that has put the financial system on the brink of a meltdown, said Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund. Speaking at a press conference Sunday following two days of intense talks on two continents, Strauss-Kahn said almost all of the affected nations now have taken strong actions to shore up their financial sectors. He said moves by the euro zone leaders in Paris were "exactly the type of action" that is needed to reassure very jittery markets. "We will see tomorrow" what the market reaction is, but "I am confident," he said.
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I think Markets may be bouncing little more, as DOW jones suggesting 330 point upmove, and SGX might have already closed.. but it will very close to our nifty rate. even tomorrow we might bounce.
http: //stquote. sgx. com/live/dt/DTFuture.asp?INFE
Dow jones futures and other european markets
http: //money.cnn. com/data/premarket/index.html
( remove the space and open these links )
...
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by :
mohanji
Dear Aru,
Any link for SGX NIfty live quotes? Any lataest changes in your recommendations for posn to be taken today.? I am quite confused. Market may get sold off also.Regards
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Dear Aru,
Any link for SGX NIfty live quotes? Any lataest changes in your recommendations for posn to be taken today.? I am quite confused. Market may get sold off also.Regards...
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by : vam_aru
US Markets futures are at 296 points higher,
Check out the link below.
http: //money.cnn. com/data/premarket/index.html
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British govt to take control of two major banks: reports
LONDON (AFP) - The British government will on Monday announce plans to take controlling shares in HBOS and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), two of the banks worst affected by the global financial crisis, media reports said.
...
In reply to:
No one is too big not to fall
Posted by : sambala
Barclays, RBS in debt double whammy
HSBC Holdings Plc, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and the biggest UK banks face the most debt coming due in at least 10 years as the credit market seizure raises borrowing costs to the highest on record.
The six largest British banks have 54 billion pounds ($95 billion) of debt to refinance by April, triple the amount of the year-ago period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. HSBC, the U.K.’s biggest bank, and RBS each have about 11.5 billion pounds of debt due, while Barclays Plc has 15.9 billion pounds maturing, the data show.
Financing costs are soaring as banks hoard cash after the credit crunch triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis a year ago. The three-month London interbank offered rate in dollars rose to 4.52% from 2.64% in March, while the equivalent rate for euros increased to a record 5.39%, from 4.74% six months ago. “The banks have no idea how they are going to manage rolling over their debt,” Kornelius Purps, a Munich-based bond strategist at UniCredit SpA, said before Wednesday’s coordinated interest-rate cuts. “The central banks will have to intervene.”
The Bank of England was among central banks to lower rates today in a worldwide action to stave off a recession. Bank borrowing costs rose this month even as the UK announced a cash injection to the banking system, Europe’s policy makers provided emergency funding and US President George W Bush approved a $700 billion rescue plan. Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s government will invest about 50 billion pounds in the UK’s banks, the Treasury said.
HSBC and Standard Chartered Plc said they have no current plans to take government capital to bolster their reserves.
RBS and Barclays will be taking up aspects of the plan, they said in statements. Lloyds TSB Group Plc, which has about 512 million pounds of bonds to refinance by the end of March, said it will make a futher announcement about the plan “in due course.”
Banks need more capital after the worst US housing slump since the great depression and $593 billion in worldwide losses and writedowns caused their stocks to tumble, forced Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc into bankruptcy and pushed the UK government to nationalise Bradford & Bingley Plc.
The UK bank debt includes bonds, commercial paper and equity-linked notes and compares with 18 billion pounds repaid in the year-earlier period.
—Bloomberg
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I would agree with that .. for most of the punters out there who still are looking for 50% returns over 1 month time frame ..its END OF DAYS :) ...
In reply to:
welguj
Posted by : souravkundu
Dear nebucanazza,
Its all perspective... One school of thought suggests buying in smaller quantities over a long period of time, while the other school of thought suggests buying in one shot and forgetting about it till your target timeline.
I believe in the second approach... and yes in the short term it hurts, but I do not get affected by such cuts. The business is growing, the conditions are favourable.. company is expanding.. what else are you worried about?
Dividends would come on time as well...
I my vision is much beyond a few months and I have taken my share of shares... and now its time for me to search somewhere else.
Do not worry about Welspun Gujarat at all... its a business you have invested in and 250 is not at all a bad price... infact if you ask me any buy price close to 20 times earnings is considered good... you were getting this below 20 times when it was at 250.. be glad that you bought it at that valuations... 5-7 years down the line people would envy you when you`d tell them that you bought Welspun Gujarat at 250..
Go long is my approach...
I have a list of companies which I find are fundamentally strong and have excellent growth potential going forward... they will reward the shareholders in the long term.
Regards,
Sourav
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its that the global leaders are trying to do whatever takes as fast as possible to see that some calm is returned. this kind of action only going to lead to more unimaginable imbalances causing the huge hot liquidity to evaporate without any trace see unprecedented rise in interest rates globally. theres going to be no respite from the global downfall in the markets with the big economys already in a recession only to make the developing, asian emerging the china, india which have seen more of a credit bubble growth in the past years than any real internal growth no matter what several people advocate. these asian, emerging the china, india are highly susceptible to the effects of global crisis and with the thing of good internal market is highly irrational and in reality only see huge deterioration with ripple effects on the whole of the region. ...
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