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Market Outlook - Short Term
Tracked by: 77 Boarders
If all investors are abhimanyu\\`s then what is the use of chakra Vyooh. Only retailers are abhimanyu\\`s....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
vam_aru
Stock markets like Chakra Vyooh ( Mahabharat ), and we ( all investors )are like Abhimanyu's , we know how to enter it, but we don't know how to come out of it......lol 
Tracked by: 77 Boarders
Stock markets like Chakra Vyooh ( Mahabharat ), and we ( all investors )are like Abhimanyu's , we know how to enter it, but we don't know how to come out of it......lol...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
Could be coz the TRIN gave enough indications the past few days thats somethign was amiss.. next time i see a rally for 3 days in a row with an oversold TRIN for 3 days i will be very cautious... how come the markets demand fresh tution fees everytime... i think gurudakshina lapses on our part in previous births attract us towards this gambling den called stockmarkets...
Tracked by: 77 Boarders
Dear Raj,
quote
In the longer term though, Indian markets are likely to outperform.
unquote
this particular dialogue is bit overdone, every one on street says this statement. sick and tired of it..
point is be it short term medium term or long term, if one knows where to go long he/she will win in this mkt.
Unlike some idiots who were so adamant to give short calls at 3800, they go for quick money and shorting always gives quick money but it also ensures everything earned vanishes in 2 session (like the one we saw in UPA rally)
Positive mind with a plan will always benefit in mkt. Mkt from 3800 - 4500 is sheer outperformance
Take care...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : raj_tibs
Dea pkk,
In the medium term, underperformance is more likely - given the high-beta nature of our markets. Also, barring crude tanking to sub-90 levels, there are not likely to be any immediate triggers for an upmove. The game was played well, and the market falls under its own weight, despite crude correcting so much.
In the longer term though, Indian markets are likely to outperform. Will wait patiently till the post elections crash to take any major long positions.
-r
Tracked by: 77 Boarders
Dear Bullsheetrules,
Bovespa almost kissed 50k today on oil weakness.
If Dow starts moving up towards 12k from Monday , we should have a good week ahead.
Negative outcome of NSG meeting may be easily discounted.
Hedge funds r Long USD at present, they will start pumping money into equities from oct onwards.
By the grace of GOD i could forsee, as early as May, the Big Boys going Short commodities n Long USD from july to sep period.
Regards....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Dear jonas,
DOW going below 11080 will signify that short term weakness else SMART money will again start moving into DOW and other markets including indian market! :) :) Money made from oil, gold, silver etc will eventually move to equity market. :)
Gud luk & happy investing!
Tracked by: 77 Boarders
Could be coz the TRIN gave enough indications the past few days thats somethign was amiss.. next time i see a rally for 3 days in a row with an oversold TRIN for 3 days i will be very cautious... how come the markets demand fresh tution fees everytime... i think gurudakshina lapses on our part in previous births attract us towards this gambling den called stockmarkets......
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Dear Rahika,
Technical Analysis, I think is ultimate tool
to see the levels of Resistance and Support. It
can be equally applied in short and long term.
Yesterday I was wondering that how Nifty will
behave today on 05 September. Inflation numbers
were acceptable. Nifty graph was indicating
strong rally. In the evening Dow collapsed. I
was not able to comprehend how Nifty should behave.
But even after following global cues, Technical
Analysis was stil in place. Nifty support of 4320
was not violated. It still did not fall below
peak of first minute wave of this present rally
that began on 28 August. Mastery of TA is the
mastery of the stockmarket.
I cannot help posting the names of great boarders
here:
RADHIKA
COLUMBUS
GURUPADA
KALIDAS
AMARAKBAR
I must have missed some names here for which I
apologise.
SURESH MITTAL
Tracked by: 77 Boarders
Lovemeall,
The TRIN did indicate something fisy.. when we had a 500 point rally that day it was oversold at 1.6, and was oversold all three days this week when we rallied or were resilient.. but then since we dint fall i thought i was reading too much into the bearish TRIN and on an impulse let go my PUTS for a song.... too bad....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : lovemeall26
Yes radkhikaji,
After seeing nifty do a topsy turn inspite of the charts showing something else for the past two days, I too feel like throwing TA into the dustbin. Sheer madness going on these days worldwide.
After such a strong rally on tuesday, all TA was showing a higher trajectory, but nope, nifty had other plans. Seems , we will have to overlook TA for a few days and see the market sentiments which are taking more centrestage these days.
lovemeall26
Tracked by: 77 Boarders
I mean the points collected in contributing to this forum, once you collected 500 points you will be upgraded to platinum....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : nightowl
WHAT 500 POINTS???? i8 not understand.......
Tracked by: 77 Boarders
Dea pkk,
In the medium term, underperformance is more likely - given the high-beta nature of our markets. Also, barring crude tanking to sub-90 levels, there are not likely to be any immediate triggers for an upmove. The game was played well, and the market falls under its own weight, despite crude correcting so much.
In the longer term though, Indian markets are likely to outperform. Will wait patiently till the post elections crash to take any major long positions.
-r...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
pkk07
Seems like India is all set to NOT get the waiver at NSG. This effectively means that this govt. has to not just go out with a red face, its the end of political career of Mr. Manmohan Singh.
Worse than that, it shows India its place in world matters. However proud we may be of our resurgent nation, the world still thinks we are shit.
Wonder how would the stock markets react on Monday. Are we staring at another black Monday on back of more sell off in Europe and US and NSG failure?
Tracked by: 77 Boarders
0518
which typo????? i did not notice any... methinks my typos are becoming the joke of the board...lols
ritts...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : googol
0518
Yeah I know you would jump at the word and say 'look googol what do you say for this typo?'
M'am in all humility all I can say is that the typo was by design!
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Just read another interesting article from the same BS advisor Lehman for its own SAD story to UNFOLD soon... Part 1
--
Last Call: Lehman hurt by worries over financials
Associated Press 09.04.08, 3:45 PM ET
NEW YORK -
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. was among the hardest hit stocks in the financial sector Thursday as investors who are worried about the fallout from bad mortgage debt focused on the company.
Wall Street has been worried about the nation\\`s fourth-largest investment bank because of its exposure to mortgage-backed securities.
Lehman shares fell .55, or 9.2 percent, to .39. The stock has traded between .02 and .73 in the past 12 months.
The day before, Lehman stock climbed on reports that the troubled investment bank might find a fresh source of capital, including a possible investment by state-owned Korea Development Bank and partners.
Investors have speculated in recent weeks that Lehman strike a deal to obtain a capital injection.
Wall Street suffered from widespread selling Thursday as worries about the economy and the well-being of corporate balance sheets roiled investors.
Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed
...
In reply to:
India stock investors should buy :Lehman
Posted by : BullSheetRules
An interesting news item:
---
India stock investors should buy on dips: Lehman
5 Sep, 2008, 1948 hrs IST, REUTERS
MUMBAI: Indian stock markets may fall by 10-15 percent in the short-term, but index levels between 12,500 and 13,000 can be viewed as buying opportunities in the coming year as inflation has peaked, Lehman Brothers said in a report.
The benchmark BSE index may trade between 14,000 and 19,685 in the next 12 months, Lehman said in the report dated Sept. 3 and released to the media on Friday.
Investors should consider buying shares in auto, media, consumer, telecom, real estate and pharma companies as well as banks, the research house said. Capital goods, non-ferrous metals and cement companies can be avoided, it added.
Double-digit inflation and subsequent monetary tightening by the central bank fuelled concerns of an economic slowdown and send the benchmark BSE index down 28.6 percent this year.
Inflation, which rose to 12.63 percent in August, was mostly driven by commodities and is likely to abate in the second half of current fiscal year on easing crude oil prices, Lehman said.
However, the central bank may continue with its tight monetary policy because of fiscal deficit concerns, Lehman said. With federal elections due early next year, the government is likely to boost spending, the research house added.
The government\\`s expenses will likely balloon on higher subsidies to fertiliser companies, oil bonds, farm loan waivers and wage increases for government employees, said Lehman.
Interest rates to consumers and companies may remain high in the next three-six months and 10-year yields will likely stay firm in coming months, the research house added.
Corporate earnings have been affected by higher interest rates, rising raw material costs and high yields, but margins are likely to stabilise in coming quarters in a deflationary commodity environment, Lehman added.
Tracked by: 77 Boarders
Seems like India is all set to NOT get the waiver at NSG. This effectively means that this govt. has to not just go out with a red face, its the end of political career of Mr. Manmohan Singh.
Worse than that, it shows India its place in world matters. However proud we may be of our resurgent nation, the world still thinks we are shit.
Wonder how would the stock markets react on Monday. Are we staring at another black Monday on back of more sell off in Europe and US and NSG failure?...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : lovemeall26
Yes radkhikaji,
After seeing nifty do a topsy turn inspite of the charts showing something else for the past two days, I too feel like throwing TA into the dustbin. Sheer madness going on these days worldwide.
After such a strong rally on tuesday, all TA was showing a higher trajectory, but nope, nifty had other plans. Seems , we will have to overlook TA for a few days and see the market sentiments which are taking more centrestage these days.
lovemeall26
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
UPDATE 2-Lehman credit spreads widen amid KDB speculation
Fri Sep 5, 2008 9:55am EDT
(Updates with quote, stock moves)
NEW YORK, Sept 5 (Reuters) - The cost to insure debt of Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) rose on Friday amid doubts about the likelihood of an acquisition of the investment bank by state-controlled Korea Development Bank [KDB.UL].
KDB has declined to give any details of negotiations and other Korean banks touted as being part of a consortium have denied interest. For details see [ID:nSP115462].
Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) also said this week it has no plans to invest in Lehman, denying a media report that it may bid for a stake in the subprime mortgage-hit U.S. investment bank. [ID:nT164730]
In addition, analysts said Lehman management may be considering plans other than a deal with KDB to shore up the faltering company, including spinning off its commercial mortgage securities into a new company. [ID:nBNG260574]
'Such a move would require the company to attract fresh capital, as the firm would inject one quarter of the equity directly and the remainder would come from debt provided by Lehman and other investors,' Barclays Capital said in a report on Friday.
Lehman's credit default swaps rose 20 basis points to 345 basis points, or $345,000 per year for five years to insure $10 million in debt, from 325 basis points on Thursday, according to Phoenix Partners Group.
Shares in Lehman edged down about 0.6 percent in early trading to $15.10. (Reporting by Walden Siew; Editing by Jonathan Oatis) ...
In reply to:
India stock investors should buy :Lehman
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Just read another interesting article from the same BS advisor Lehman for its own SAD story to UNFOLD soon... Part 2
--
Lehman Weighs Split to Shed Troubling Loans
Article Tools Sponsored By
By BEN WHITE and JENNY ANDERSON
Published: September 4, 2008
'Everybody got paid back and there was money left over for shareholders,” said Michael Bleier, a lawyer with Reed Smith in Pittsburgh, and former general counsel at Mellon Bank. 'Mellon got the assets off its balance sheet and that improved the quality of the portfolio over all and the quality of the good bank,” he said.
David Trone, an analyst with Fox-Pitt Kelton, endorsed the idea of Lehman spinning off its commercial real estate for shareholders.
In a research note on Thursday, Mr. Trone said the issue for Lehman management was not so much one of troubled assets, but rather the fact that uncertainty surrounding the portfolio was weighing down Lehman’s stock.
'Management is in a quandary — the commercial mortgage is performing too well to be dumped in a fire sale but, yet on the other hand, the equity market appears to want it gone,” he wrote.
Creating the separate company, the thinking goes, would strengthen the confidence of people who do business with Lehman every day — other banks, hedge funds and institutions like pension funds — thereby encouraging them to continue doing business with the firm. Shareholders, who would own shares of both the real e
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Just read another interesting article from the same BS advisor Lehman for its own SAD story to UNFOLD soon... Part 2
--
Lehman Weighs Split to Shed Troubling Loans
Article Tools Sponsored By
By BEN WHITE and JENNY ANDERSON
Published: September 4, 2008
'Everybody got paid back and there was money left over for shareholders,” said Michael Bleier, a lawyer with Reed Smith in Pittsburgh, and former general counsel at Mellon Bank. 'Mellon got the assets off its balance sheet and that improved the quality of the portfolio over all and the quality of the good bank,” he said.
David Trone, an analyst with Fox-Pitt Kelton, endorsed the idea of Lehman spinning off its commercial real estate for shareholders.
In a research note on Thursday, Mr. Trone said the issue for Lehman management was not so much one of troubled assets, but rather the fact that uncertainty surrounding the portfolio was weighing down Lehman’s stock.
'Management is in a quandary — the commercial mortgage is performing too well to be dumped in a fire sale but, yet on the other hand, the equity market appears to want it gone,” he wrote.
Creating the separate company, the thinking goes, would strengthen the confidence of people who do business with Lehman every day — other banks, hedge funds and institutions like pension funds — thereby encouraging them to continue doing business with the firm. Shareholders, who would own shares of both the real e...
In reply to:
India stock investors should buy :Lehman
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Just read another interesting article from the same BS advisor Lehman for its own SAD story to UNFOLD soon... Part 1
--
Lehman Weighs Split to Shed Troubling Loans
Article Tools Sponsored By
By BEN WHITE and JENNY ANDERSON
Published: September 4, 2008
Lehman Brothers, the ailing Wall Street bank, is working toward a radical solution in its fight for survival: Splitting itself into a 'good” bank and a 'bad” one.
Lehman, which has been searching for a financial lifeline from outside investors, is contemplating placing about $30 billion of troublesome commercial mortgages and real estate that it owns into a new publicly traded company — the 'bad” bank. The rest of Lehman — the 'good” one — would then be able to carry on with the help of a cash infusion from one or more investors.
The move is one of several under consideration as Lehman prepares to report what could be grim third-quarter results this month. But the good bank/bad bank idea is hardly new. Several troubled financial institutions took similar steps in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
If Lehman goes through with the plan, the firm itself would probably inject $6 billion to $8 billion in equity into the new company, people briefed on the matter said Thursday. Lehman would also provide debt financing for the company and could raise additional money from outside investors, who would benefit from any recovery in the market for commercial and residential real estate assets. A spokeswoman for Lehman declined to comment.
The fate of Lehman is one of the biggest questions hanging over Wall Street, where concern about the health of the financial industry and the broader economy sent the Dow Jones industrial average into a 345-point tailspin on Thursday.
Lehman, among the largest underwriters of mortgage-backed securities, has been brought to its knees by the running credit crisis. The firm’s hard-charging leader, Richard S. Fuld Jr., has been trying to sell some of the bank’s troubled commercial mortgage holdings, but has failed to find enough buyers.
Lehman’s next results are likely to underscore its precarious position. Analysts expect the firm to write-down as much as $5 billion of commercial real estate holdings and to post a loss of $2.49 a share.
Splitting off troubled assets would help Lehman attract new investors, many of whom have been reluctant to put money into the troubled financial industry.
Lehman has been negotiating to sell part of itself to the government-owned Korea Development Bank or other investors in Asia. While no deal has been reached, many analysts think one will materialize soon. Lehman is also considering selling its prized investment management arm, which includes Neuberger Berman, for about $7 billion, possibly to a private equity group like Apollo or Kohlberg Kravis Roberts.
If Lehman were to create a good/bad bank structure it would probably need to raise fresh capital to replace the money it would inject into the bad bank.
In June, Lehman tapped a group of American institutional investors for $6 billion when it announced second-quarter results. But its shares have dropped 44 percent since then, making another similar capital-raising unlikely. Shares of Lehman fell $1.77, or 10.5 percent, to close at $15.17 on Thursday.
In 1988, Mellon Bank, weighed down by bad real estate loans, created Grant Street National Bank to offload troubled loans. Mellon sold 191 loans, once worth about $1.4 billion, for $640 million to the new entity and took a one-time, pretax charge of about $200 million.
Every Mellon shareholder was given one share in the new entity. To finance the entity, Mellon put in about $125 million and Grant Street tapped the markets for an additional $513 million in junk bonds. The notes were paid off before they matured and the entity was shut down in 1995.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Just read another interesting article from the same BS advisor Lehman for its own SAD story to UNFOLD soon... Part 1
--
Lehman Weighs Split to Shed Troubling Loans
Article Tools Sponsored By
By BEN WHITE and JENNY ANDERSON
Published: September 4, 2008
Lehman Brothers, the ailing Wall Street bank, is working toward a radical solution in its fight for survival: Splitting itself into a 'good” bank and a 'bad” one.
Lehman, which has been searching for a financial lifeline from outside investors, is contemplating placing about $30 billion of troublesome commercial mortgages and real estate that it owns into a new publicly traded company — the 'bad” bank. The rest of Lehman — the 'good” one — would then be able to carry on with the help of a cash infusion from one or more investors.
The move is one of several under consideration as Lehman prepares to report what could be grim third-quarter results this month. But the good bank/bad bank idea is hardly new. Several troubled financial institutions took similar steps in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
If Lehman goes through with the plan, the firm itself would probably inject $6 billion to $8 billion in equity into the new company, people briefed on the matter said Thursday. Lehman would also provide debt financing for the company and could raise additional money from outside investors, who would benefit from any recovery in the market for commercial and residential real estate assets. A spokeswoman for Lehman declined to comment.
The fate of Lehman is one of the biggest questions hanging over Wall Street, where concern about the health of the financial industry and the broader economy sent the Dow Jones industrial average into a 345-point tailspin on Thursday.
Lehman, among the largest underwriters of mortgage-backed securities, has been brought to its knees by the running credit crisis. The firm’s hard-charging leader, Richard S. Fuld Jr., has been trying to sell some of the bank’s troubled commercial mortgage holdings, but has failed to find enough buyers.
Lehman’s next results are likely to underscore its precarious position. Analysts expect the firm to write-down as much as $5 billion of commercial real estate holdings and to post a loss of $2.49 a share.
Splitting off troubled assets would help Lehman attract new investors, many of whom have been reluctant to put money into the troubled financial industry.
Lehman has been negotiating to sell part of itself to the government-owned Korea Development Bank or other investors in Asia. While no deal has been reached, many analysts think one will materialize soon. Lehman is also considering selling its prized investment management arm, which includes Neuberger Berman, for about $7 billion, possibly to a private equity group like Apollo or Kohlberg Kravis Roberts.
If Lehman were to create a good/bad bank structure it would probably need to raise fresh capital to replace the money it would inject into the bad bank.
In June, Lehman tapped a group of American institutional investors for $6 billion when it announced second-quarter results. But its shares have dropped 44 percent since then, making another similar capital-raising unlikely. Shares of Lehman fell $1.77, or 10.5 percent, to close at $15.17 on Thursday.
In 1988, Mellon Bank, weighed down by bad real estate loans, created Grant Street National Bank to offload troubled loans. Mellon sold 191 loans, once worth about $1.4 billion, for $640 million to the new entity and took a one-time, pretax charge of about $200 million.
Every Mellon shareholder was given one share in the new entity. To finance the entity, Mellon put in about $125 million and Grant Street tapped the markets for an additional $513 million in junk bonds. The notes were paid off before they matured and the entity was shut down in 1995.
...
In reply to:
India stock investors should buy :Lehman
Posted by : BullSheetRules
An interesting news item:
---
India stock investors should buy on dips: Lehman
5 Sep, 2008, 1948 hrs IST, REUTERS
MUMBAI: Indian stock markets may fall by 10-15 percent in the short-term, but index levels between 12,500 and 13,000 can be viewed as buying opportunities in the coming year as inflation has peaked, Lehman Brothers said in a report.
The benchmark BSE index may trade between 14,000 and 19,685 in the next 12 months, Lehman said in the report dated Sept. 3 and released to the media on Friday.
Investors should consider buying shares in auto, media, consumer, telecom, real estate and pharma companies as well as banks, the research house said. Capital goods, non-ferrous metals and cement companies can be avoided, it added.
Double-digit inflation and subsequent monetary tightening by the central bank fuelled concerns of an economic slowdown and send the benchmark BSE index down 28.6 percent this year.
Inflation, which rose to 12.63 percent in August, was mostly driven by commodities and is likely to abate in the second half of current fiscal year on easing crude oil prices, Lehman said.
However, the central bank may continue with its tight monetary policy because of fiscal deficit concerns, Lehman said. With federal elections due early next year, the government is likely to boost spending, the research house added.
The government\\`s expenses will likely balloon on higher subsidies to fertiliser companies, oil bonds, farm loan waivers and wage increases for government employees, said Lehman.
Interest rates to consumers and companies may remain high in the next three-six months and 10-year yields will likely stay firm in coming months, the research house added.
Corporate earnings have been affected by higher interest rates, rising raw material costs and high yields, but margins are likely to stabilise in coming quarters in a deflationary commodity environment, Lehman added.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
An interesting news item:
---
India stock investors should buy on dips: Lehman
5 Sep, 2008, 1948 hrs IST, REUTERS
MUMBAI: Indian stock markets may fall by 10-15 percent in the short-term, but index levels between 12,500 and 13,000 can be viewed as buying opportunities in the coming year as inflation has peaked, Lehman Brothers said in a report.
The benchmark BSE index may trade between 14,000 and 19,685 in the next 12 months, Lehman said in the report dated Sept. 3 and released to the media on Friday.
Investors should consider buying shares in auto, media, consumer, telecom, real estate and pharma companies as well as banks, the research house said. Capital goods, non-ferrous metals and cement companies can be avoided, it added.
Double-digit inflation and subsequent monetary tightening by the central bank fuelled concerns of an economic slowdown and send the benchmark BSE index down 28.6 percent this year.
Inflation, which rose to 12.63 percent in August, was mostly driven by commodities and is likely to abate in the second half of current fiscal year on easing crude oil prices, Lehman said.
However, the central bank may continue with its tight monetary policy because of fiscal deficit concerns, Lehman said. With federal elections due early next year, the government is likely to boost spending, the research house added.
The government\\`s expenses will likely balloon on higher subsidies to fertiliser companies, oil bonds, farm loan waivers and wage increases for government employees, said Lehman.
Interest rates to consumers and companies may remain high in the next three-six months and 10-year yields will likely stay firm in coming months, the research house added.
Corporate earnings have been affected by higher interest rates, rising raw material costs and high yields, but margins are likely to stabilise in coming quarters in a deflationary commodity environment, Lehman added. ...
