Offline
| Post a Message | Explore Forums | Browse Stock Messages | Hot Discussions | Top rated Messages | Top Boarders | |
|
|
|
gajabhau
Gold
Last visited by:
Guest, khairnar_sandee, Climax, sandeep_thakkar, ramyadarshni, s.maneesh, amit9765, imuwithash, gainagain, ashok_5n, ravisalunkhe07, saurisen, piyugandhi, pradhansingh, renikamo,
Not Specified
Also see gajabhau’s rated messages
02 Oct 2008 14:00
View full thread (12 messages)
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
01 Oct 2008 19:24
View full thread (6 messages)
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
i dont hv the balance sheet but i think they hv issud fccb n now they wont be converted at high price so either they hv to return the dollars they raised or convert them at ridiculous low price so that eq goes up.
we hv no option but to hold on tight n wait for recovery in mkt so some sanity returns.
REMENBER EQ IS RISK N MIGHTY CO HV FALLEN IN THE PAST THE LIST IS LONG---GEN MOT,AT N T, RECENT BUST IN US FINANCIALS. N U DONT KNOW WHERE ICICI WILL TAKE INVESTORS THOUGH THEY ARE assuring .same assurance came from fed n us presidents.
invest only wh u dont neeed in near future.all the best....
we hv no option but to hold on tight n wait for recovery in mkt so some sanity returns.
REMENBER EQ IS RISK N MIGHTY CO HV FALLEN IN THE PAST THE LIST IS LONG---GEN MOT,AT N T, RECENT BUST IN US FINANCIALS. N U DONT KNOW WHERE ICICI WILL TAKE INVESTORS THOUGH THEY ARE assuring .same assurance came from fed n us presidents.
invest only wh u dont neeed in near future.all the best....
28 Sep 2008 20:23
View full thread (6 messages)
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
good q.will try to answer to my best capacity n what i know.
1. warrants are for the hard work promoters do for the co.9its their baby only but raised with peoples money too.)
2. shareholders get tiny div out of cos profits(that is if they dont sell at right time)
3. since mgmt is aware n hv first hand info of co business they keep these warrants handy to sell in rising mkt,if the price has fallen like now they will not convert the warrants.
4. fii also get lured (or hand in glove with mgmt) n invest in warrants or fccb to prop the confidence among retail investors.
5. THIS IS WHERE PROMOTERS INTEGRITY COMES IN PICTURE.THATS WHY INFY WAS DARLING OF INVESTORS AS THEY WERE MOST TRANSPARENT DURING BAD OR GOOD TIMES.
6. as warrants n conversion dts can be found from old bse ann. or from the balance sheet(wh we dont chk) small investors get trapped as eq cap of co suddenly zooms,price crashes n one day u find mgmt hv sold n lacs of shrares in last 6 mths--eps comes down n pe wh looked very cheap some days back shoots up.
u n me become long term investors n sell in despair wh again promoters only pick for the nxt boom time to offload it u.
very simple game THE STOCK MKT, DEAR
READY TO PLAY?
UR NAME IS INTERESTING ,ARE U MAHARASHTRIAN N FROM WHERE(THAT IS IF U WANT TO DISCLOSE)...BY...
1. warrants are for the hard work promoters do for the co.9its their baby only but raised with peoples money too.)
2. shareholders get tiny div out of cos profits(that is if they dont sell at right time)
3. since mgmt is aware n hv first hand info of co business they keep these warrants handy to sell in rising mkt,if the price has fallen like now they will not convert the warrants.
4. fii also get lured (or hand in glove with mgmt) n invest in warrants or fccb to prop the confidence among retail investors.
5. THIS IS WHERE PROMOTERS INTEGRITY COMES IN PICTURE.THATS WHY INFY WAS DARLING OF INVESTORS AS THEY WERE MOST TRANSPARENT DURING BAD OR GOOD TIMES.
6. as warrants n conversion dts can be found from old bse ann. or from the balance sheet(wh we dont chk) small investors get trapped as eq cap of co suddenly zooms,price crashes n one day u find mgmt hv sold n lacs of shrares in last 6 mths--eps comes down n pe wh looked very cheap some days back shoots up.
u n me become long term investors n sell in despair wh again promoters only pick for the nxt boom time to offload it u.
very simple game THE STOCK MKT, DEAR
READY TO PLAY?
UR NAME IS INTERESTING ,ARE U MAHARASHTRIAN N FROM WHERE(THAT IS IF U WANT TO DISCLOSE)...BY...
25 Sep 2008 01:51
View full thread (1 messages)
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Studying capitulation
GUEST COLUMN
Mukul Pal
Sentiment, negative or positive, is contagious and triggers a sequential response in bourses across the world.
We have an index of phone calls at Orpheus. This is an internal sentiment index that we use. Higher the number of calls received in a certain week, stronger the market sentiment. The week that went started with frantic calls regarding market volatility.
“I am long on the market after markets fell 10 per cent, but they don’t seem to stop falling, and now Dow is down too, what should I do?” Another query was, “When will this fall stop. How low can it go?” Another one involved Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Merrill. “What was their future?”
Another was regarding the ban on short selling and how it would modify market behaviour? “What else will the regulator do? Open interest has increased in the market, what does it mean? I am still in doubt regarding the bottom. Does doubt about a bottom make it a better bottom?”
Of course, once in a while we also have the regular confessions regarding leverage and need for vacations and detachment. Markets do take a toll on human psyche, and, more the emotional maturity better it gets for the investor, trader or speculator.
On the first impression, the frantic call index spiking to near panic lows, or capitulation bottoms might look like a strange phenomenon. But a deeper thought and you can start seeing a cycle. We at Orpheus monitor market sentiment.
The need to understand sentiment is so strong that whenever we conduct a conference with more than 50-100 people, we do a survey. We did one in Dec 2006, weeks before Romania was to enter the European Union. I raised my hand and asked the large group, how many think markets will become half from here. Not even one hand rose. Jan 2007 saw a collapse of 30 per cent after Romanians celebrated the EU entry and went across the Hungarian border to have coffee without being asked for visa or passport details.
On another occasion in 2007, the same question saw another hand raised along with mine. This time it was a research head of an institutional brokerage company. But we were still in a minority, two loners who believed markets can halve in value.
Market sentiment is like this, lonely at tops and overwhelming at bottoms. Tops we are kings and bottoms scared prisoners of war, searching for survival trenches to hide in. Capitulations are chaotic while euphoric upmoves are celebrations. Tops are when we celebrate and dine with our broker and bottoms are when we fire and sue him.
This is the reason the frantic call sentiment index never spikes at a market top. It is only after markets start falling that the bells start ringing. This is human nature. We pay more for put options in a market collapse, than we pay for calls in a euphoric rise. Fear remains a stronger motivator than greed.
This is why capitulations can be measured easily compared to euphoric tops. There are also more signals near a bottom than there are exhaustion signs at a top. Above this, price rockets can push the markets higher, but the market has a limit to where it can fall to, 50 per cent, 60 per cent, 90 per cent are clear limits on the downside. But upside is technically unlimited, till the moon.
There are of course other problems linked with capitulations. Even if we hit or identify a capitulation bottom, prices take more time to rise than to fall. We take more time to build than we take to destroy. We move from margin lending schemes at market tops to banning short sales at lows. There is a complete history of short sale bans and revokes.
The proponents of globalisation have also contributed to this capitulation. They just made it global. There are cycles of liberalisation and protectionism. We open up and build walls cyclically. Globalisation brought free trade, economic growth, and consumerism. Along with all this came speculation and global capitulation where contagions happen together around the world. We talked about one such impending capitulation in The October low article.
Global contagions and capitulations have group power. When many countries fall at the same time, it creates a stronger sentiment than what a single market collapse would have evoked. Group power hence has more signal power. If we have 10 sectors in the market and all of them are in gear, that’s just the turnaround signal one needs, everything falling and negative at the same time. What happened now was a global contagion. Year to date, Russia is down 50 per cent, Shanghai composite is down 60 per cent, Brazil BVSP and Indian Sensex are down 30 per cent. And along with this if you hear about bankruptcies and bailouts, the panic is bound to be global.
Capitulation, the sentiment tool, works differently for stocks and indices. It is more of a market wide tool than for stock specific. It is like comparing a large degree cycle with a small degree cycle. Both degrees work, but the larger degree is more impactful. Above this Indices can be reconstructed, this is why Dow Index after the 1929 collapse of 90 per cent survived, as new industries, sectors and components took over.
But when stocks collapse 90 per cent there is not much study that can be done. All the 90 per cent collapses look the same. The market signal for the company is clear and revivals or resurrections are potential miracles. What happened to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, Lehman and Merrill leaves not much to say.
Capitulation cycles can also be linked with simplicity cycles. Markets wake up and ask, “Why we made it all so complex?” There is a strong need to simplify things again. The need for affiliation increases and need for achievement decreases. It is a clear move from the conscious to the subconscious, and introspection.
Market knowledge also moves from short term to long term memory. The bigger the crisis, the deeper it gets into market memory. Capitulation is like grieving and mourning. It is a five stage process - anger and intense emotion, denial, guilt, depression and sorrow and finally acceptance.
Sentiment in terms of news also reaches historic proportions when market hits capitulation lows. The bulls thanked the Federal Reserve while the bears blamed and cursed the bailouts.
We are in historic times and such high number of capitulations for us may make the stock study redundant, but as a panic extreme, such extreme sentiments still favours potential impending bottoms rather than continued precipitating declines.
We just need to work on timing more, did it happen already or is it coming in October? A smarter investor, on the other hand would wonder “What capitulation?” His green stocks like Vestas Wind, ITT Corp, First Solar are still positive for the year.
The author is CEO, Orpheus CAPITALS, a global alternative research firm
COURTESY--BUSI STD
...
GUEST COLUMN
Mukul Pal
Sentiment, negative or positive, is contagious and triggers a sequential response in bourses across the world.
We have an index of phone calls at Orpheus. This is an internal sentiment index that we use. Higher the number of calls received in a certain week, stronger the market sentiment. The week that went started with frantic calls regarding market volatility.
“I am long on the market after markets fell 10 per cent, but they don’t seem to stop falling, and now Dow is down too, what should I do?” Another query was, “When will this fall stop. How low can it go?” Another one involved Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Merrill. “What was their future?”
Another was regarding the ban on short selling and how it would modify market behaviour? “What else will the regulator do? Open interest has increased in the market, what does it mean? I am still in doubt regarding the bottom. Does doubt about a bottom make it a better bottom?”
Of course, once in a while we also have the regular confessions regarding leverage and need for vacations and detachment. Markets do take a toll on human psyche, and, more the emotional maturity better it gets for the investor, trader or speculator.
On the first impression, the frantic call index spiking to near panic lows, or capitulation bottoms might look like a strange phenomenon. But a deeper thought and you can start seeing a cycle. We at Orpheus monitor market sentiment.
The need to understand sentiment is so strong that whenever we conduct a conference with more than 50-100 people, we do a survey. We did one in Dec 2006, weeks before Romania was to enter the European Union. I raised my hand and asked the large group, how many think markets will become half from here. Not even one hand rose. Jan 2007 saw a collapse of 30 per cent after Romanians celebrated the EU entry and went across the Hungarian border to have coffee without being asked for visa or passport details.
On another occasion in 2007, the same question saw another hand raised along with mine. This time it was a research head of an institutional brokerage company. But we were still in a minority, two loners who believed markets can halve in value.
Market sentiment is like this, lonely at tops and overwhelming at bottoms. Tops we are kings and bottoms scared prisoners of war, searching for survival trenches to hide in. Capitulations are chaotic while euphoric upmoves are celebrations. Tops are when we celebrate and dine with our broker and bottoms are when we fire and sue him.
This is the reason the frantic call sentiment index never spikes at a market top. It is only after markets start falling that the bells start ringing. This is human nature. We pay more for put options in a market collapse, than we pay for calls in a euphoric rise. Fear remains a stronger motivator than greed.
This is why capitulations can be measured easily compared to euphoric tops. There are also more signals near a bottom than there are exhaustion signs at a top. Above this, price rockets can push the markets higher, but the market has a limit to where it can fall to, 50 per cent, 60 per cent, 90 per cent are clear limits on the downside. But upside is technically unlimited, till the moon.
There are of course other problems linked with capitulations. Even if we hit or identify a capitulation bottom, prices take more time to rise than to fall. We take more time to build than we take to destroy. We move from margin lending schemes at market tops to banning short sales at lows. There is a complete history of short sale bans and revokes.
The proponents of globalisation have also contributed to this capitulation. They just made it global. There are cycles of liberalisation and protectionism. We open up and build walls cyclically. Globalisation brought free trade, economic growth, and consumerism. Along with all this came speculation and global capitulation where contagions happen together around the world. We talked about one such impending capitulation in The October low article.
Global contagions and capitulations have group power. When many countries fall at the same time, it creates a stronger sentiment than what a single market collapse would have evoked. Group power hence has more signal power. If we have 10 sectors in the market and all of them are in gear, that’s just the turnaround signal one needs, everything falling and negative at the same time. What happened now was a global contagion. Year to date, Russia is down 50 per cent, Shanghai composite is down 60 per cent, Brazil BVSP and Indian Sensex are down 30 per cent. And along with this if you hear about bankruptcies and bailouts, the panic is bound to be global.
Capitulation, the sentiment tool, works differently for stocks and indices. It is more of a market wide tool than for stock specific. It is like comparing a large degree cycle with a small degree cycle. Both degrees work, but the larger degree is more impactful. Above this Indices can be reconstructed, this is why Dow Index after the 1929 collapse of 90 per cent survived, as new industries, sectors and components took over.
But when stocks collapse 90 per cent there is not much study that can be done. All the 90 per cent collapses look the same. The market signal for the company is clear and revivals or resurrections are potential miracles. What happened to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, Lehman and Merrill leaves not much to say.
Capitulation cycles can also be linked with simplicity cycles. Markets wake up and ask, “Why we made it all so complex?” There is a strong need to simplify things again. The need for affiliation increases and need for achievement decreases. It is a clear move from the conscious to the subconscious, and introspection.
Market knowledge also moves from short term to long term memory. The bigger the crisis, the deeper it gets into market memory. Capitulation is like grieving and mourning. It is a five stage process - anger and intense emotion, denial, guilt, depression and sorrow and finally acceptance.
Sentiment in terms of news also reaches historic proportions when market hits capitulation lows. The bulls thanked the Federal Reserve while the bears blamed and cursed the bailouts.
We are in historic times and such high number of capitulations for us may make the stock study redundant, but as a panic extreme, such extreme sentiments still favours potential impending bottoms rather than continued precipitating declines.
We just need to work on timing more, did it happen already or is it coming in October? A smarter investor, on the other hand would wonder “What capitulation?” His green stocks like Vestas Wind, ITT Corp, First Solar are still positive for the year.
The author is CEO, Orpheus CAPITALS, a global alternative research firm
COURTESY--BUSI STD
...
25 Sep 2008 01:42
View full thread (1 messages)
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
1. IS IT already? or it will flow more before election?
2. india onle country left in the world barring china to hv GDP growth of 7 pc plus.
3. but unless FII invest our mkts wont go up
4. will FII hv money aftr the bailout plan?
5. oil rich countries flush with recent 147 $ oil were supposed to invest in india -where is that money?
6. is this bottom?
7. public memory is short but how long before investors find these prices attractive?
8. ril at 1700, t steel at 500 ,bhar airtel at 700-800,icici at 600,hdfc bank at 1200---LIFE TIME CHANCE TO BUY?
9. IS THIS SITUATION AKIN TO 2003-4 AFTR THE BUST-IDEAL TIME TO BUY?!!!
10. nostradamus predictions coming true of grt civilisation going bust???
11. many questions n no answers
12. so far i met only 2 persons who actually SOLD shares in dec/jan
13. 9 losers n ONE WINNER IN THIS GAME.
14. ITS TRUE DERIVATIVES ARE MASS WEAPONS OF DESTRUCTIONS.
15. IM EXHAUSTED..........
2. india onle country left in the world barring china to hv GDP growth of 7 pc plus.
3. but unless FII invest our mkts wont go up
4. will FII hv money aftr the bailout plan?
5. oil rich countries flush with recent 147 $ oil were supposed to invest in india -where is that money?
6. is this bottom?
7. public memory is short but how long before investors find these prices attractive?
8. ril at 1700, t steel at 500 ,bhar airtel at 700-800,icici at 600,hdfc bank at 1200---LIFE TIME CHANCE TO BUY?
9. IS THIS SITUATION AKIN TO 2003-4 AFTR THE BUST-IDEAL TIME TO BUY?!!!
10. nostradamus predictions coming true of grt civilisation going bust???
11. many questions n no answers
12. so far i met only 2 persons who actually SOLD shares in dec/jan
13. 9 losers n ONE WINNER IN THIS GAME.
14. ITS TRUE DERIVATIVES ARE MASS WEAPONS OF DESTRUCTIONS.
15. IM EXHAUSTED..........
25 Sep 2008 01:28
View full thread (11 messages)
Tracked by: 1 Boarder
first co takes close to 3 months to declare annual results,then postpones on some pretexts as if co has to finish books of corus size subsidiary.
strange are the ways how cos operate in india.!!!
lie mr bangera says hope there are no negative surprises like DERIVATIVES LOSSES. VOH HAI TO INVESTORS FINISHED.GOD SAVE US....
strange are the ways how cos operate in india.!!!
lie mr bangera says hope there are no negative surprises like DERIVATIVES LOSSES. VOH HAI TO INVESTORS FINISHED.GOD SAVE US....
25 Sep 2008 01:25
View full thread (4 messages)
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
more
gajabhau’s Network
gajabhau’s Interest Area
Tracked Topics
Tracked Threads (4)
Kohinoor Broard : Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd has informed...
place
7th-Feb-2008 by
MMB Messenger
place
7th-Feb-2008 by
MMB Messenger
Explore Moneycontrol
STOCKS A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | Others
MUTUAL FUNDS A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z 172.31.1.223
News |
Markets |
IPO |
Technicals |
Mutual Fund |
Commodities |
Best Portfolio Manager |
Moneybhai |
Budgeting |
Insurance |
Tax |
Retirement |
Property |
Stocks & Funds |
Fixed Income |
Credit Cards |
Loans |
Salary and negotiation |
Entrepreneurship |
Tools and Calculators |
Advertising & Marketing |
Message Board |
Site Map |
About Us | Feedback |
Contact Us |
Advertise |
Bookmark |
Disclaimer |
Privacy Statement |
Terms of Use |
Careers
Copyright © e-Eighteen.com Ltd. All rights reserved. Reproduction of news articles, photos, videos or any other content in whole or in part in any form or medium without express written permission of moneycontrol.com is prohibited.