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Commodities & Currencies
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Indian rupee falls to lowest since Dec 2002 AT 48.003 rs with Dollar....
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Rupee trading against US Dollar above 48 level....
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Gold just now before 15 minutes has spiked almost Rs400 per 10 gms led by bank speculation. Its good opportunity to exit for tarpped as Gold`s technical target has lowered before some days back to Rs. 5500 to Rs. 6500 per 10 gms....
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Today`s heavy correction in equity would have tremendous pressure on gold today also. Gold might correct 3-5% in today or tomorrow`s session. Fall more than equity can also be seen. Liquidity crunch, No relief from Equity correction & day to day cash would create sharp falls in gold. If not tomorrow then surely in some days gold fall would be unavoidable....
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State banks sell dollars around 47.43...
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Rupee weakening wouldn\`t continue much. Dollar wouldn\`t get stronger above Rs. 48.1-Rs.49. I think its hardly 1-2 % upside in dollar would be seen. & its good position to halt dollar buying. I think cycle for rupee weakening is almost done. Wise to sell dollar now. However, long term rupee strength would continue. Would not be surprised even if Dollar touches Rs40-Rs.41 once again....
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Gold selling continues on commodity exchanges. If credit crisis dont stop in short term then see gold much below Rs.9000 per 10 gms level. Today also there might be heavy selling of gold. Gold recovery would take almost 5-6 years from hereon. Large players seen exiting....
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Fears of global economic slowdown are beginning to take a toll on commodity prices. Apprehensions of slowing world growth have combined with appreciation of the dollar (against the euro) to drag commodity prices lower. As is well known, a rising dollar pushes dollar-denominated commodity prices down.
The recent economic data from the world’s largest economy the US (ISM manufacturing index and auto sales) are far from encouraging. The leading indicators for Eurozone and Japan point to a sharp downturn. China too has disappointed many who anticipated a post-Olympics bounce in Chinese economic activity; but growth has been tepid, if any.
The oil market has fallen back in response to firmer dollar and genuine concerns over demand destruction in the wake of continued high energy prices and inflation. NYMEX light sweet crude (November contract) went under $95 a barrel.
Financial turmoil
Gold also may have fallen out of favour with investors, at least for the time being. Despite the financial market turmoil, the yellow metal did not perform as attractively as many would have anticipated. With things a lot more clear on the financial market and rescue package, and the greenback gaining strength, investors will have a tough call to make.
On Thursday, prices slipped sharply following selling provoked by firmer dollar and lower oil prices out-weighing safe haven related demand. There has been no change in the underlying demand and supply fundamentals. So, going forward, investor interest holds the key to gold prices.
The market is still digesting the implications of the bailout package and its impact on the dollar. The currency may gain further strength if the eurozone continues to perform poorly. This should depress gold prices. On the other hand, gold may be favoured by those who believe there is more pain left in banking and financial markets as risks may not have completely evaporated.
So, gold prices have the potential to swing both ways wildly over the next few days and even weeks. Speculators are holding large net-long positions and this creates downside risk. Caution is necessary in taking large exposure to this market. In India, a weaker rupee makes imports expensive and leads to demand compression.
Crude
The market is increasingly focussed on demand, although supply concerns continue to weigh heavily. Non-OPEC supplies are weak. Oil demand appears to be declining and the overall global demand growth in 2008 may be on par with other weak years in the past. In other words, the market is going to be torn between demand weakness and supply concerns. Demand weakness may not allow the market to stay considerably above $100 a barrel for too long and may pull prices towards the $90 a barrel mark; but supply concerns may prevent the market going down for long. It may be reasonable to expect that the crude market may be range bound, trading between $90 and $110 a barrel in the near future.
Even at these rates, imports are going to be expensive for India because of a weak rupee. Energy related inflation is unlikely to moderate anytime soon.
General
Market perceptions of the international economic outlook are particularly fluid at this point of time. Sharp movements in commodity and equity markets can be expected to continue. Overall, the markets could trade in a range broader than hitherto. If the world economy does experience a severe downturn, the market has the potential to collapse
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Rupee falls to lowest since early april 2003...
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Gold down on oil and dollar, trading at $830.90 an ounce...
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Amidst slumping commodities, copper headed for the biggest weekly decline in two years on London metal Exchange (LME). This came in the wake of growing a concern of shortage of funds forcing manufacturers and money managers to reduce investments in sight of a deepening economic recession in US.
The metal slumped 12% this week, the worst week since at least 1988. “Copper, the best-performing industrial metal in 2007, may end this year as a loser for the first time since 2001,” said Navneet Damani, analyst, Anand Rathi Commodities. People realise that even after the bailout plan has passed our worst fears about the economy are true, and there’s going to be very little demand for copper, he added.
In domestic markets, it crashed during the week finally closing at Rs 277.95 for the November contract on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).
Other metals posted losses as well. Aluminium October contract lost by 2.73% to Rs 112.05 per kg, copper November contract by 8.88% to Rs 289.45 per kg, nickel November contract lost by 5.33% to Rs 767.30 per kg and zinc October contract went down by 6.22% to Rs 78.35 per kg.
Analysts believe copper will probably continue to follow the treacherous downward path. Inventories of copper in warehouses monitored by the LME jumped 62% in the third quarter, reaching an 18-month high on September 19.
The US economy, the world’s largest, expanded at a 2.8% annual rate in the second quarter, less than first estimated by the Commerce Department. Sales of new US homes fell to a 17-year low last month.
Besides, copper demand could come down, and that will probably continue. Analysts say the outlook for base metals does not look promising going forward and a “global synchronised slowdown” will not be a conducive backdrop for commodities to thrive in....
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Production of Kharif pulses, including tur and urad, may dip up to 30 per cent this year due to inadequate rainfall after the sowing, says an expert.
Lack of rainfall in Maharashtra, north Karnataka and north Andhra Pradesh, the major producing areas of pulses, during June-July, just after the sowing, damaged the early seedlings, according to Karvy Comtrade`s Chowda Reddy. This early damage will affect the final output by 25-30 per cent, he added.
According to government data, the production for tur, which is grown during Kharif season, is expected to be 2.37 million tonnes (MT), against 3.09 MT last year, down 23.3 per cent.
Urad output for 2008-09 is likely to be 0.82 MT, against 1.15 MT last year, a fall of 28.69 per cent. Moong output is expected to decline to 0.77 MT from 1.26 MT last season.
In 2008-09, total production of kharif pulses, including moong, is estimated at 4.72 MT, against 6.45 MT last year. The government, which had set a target of 5.94 MT production of kharif pulses, hopes that production will go up this year by the time the final output comes next year.
By the time the fourth advance estimates is released, the impression is that the production will improve. The first advance estimates are always little provisional, Agriculture Secretary T Nanda Kumar had said recently.
Till September 25, sowing areas for urad declined this season to 21.56 lakh hectares (LH), compared to 27.53 LH in the same period last year. The arhar acreage dipped to 34.34 LH from 38.54 LH in the review period.
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Gold extending its losses again. yesterday it slipped by almost USD 43 per ounce i.e. Rs.670 per 10gms almost days low. & today also its quite a lot down by Rs. 80 per 10gms. & US market yet to start. I think gold target has been lowered to much lower level. If at all equity or crude like correection occur in Gold then it should touch Rs. 6500-Rs.6800 per 10 gms. & correction & heavy profit booking in gold is unavoidable as not equity, not real estate, not MFs, not any other investment like crude or ferrous-non-ferrous metals giving profit in system. Ultimately, gold will surely see pressure on it.
So, Gold technically as well as fundamental demand wise is into unsafe terrain....
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Indian Banks Unable To Sell 20 Tonnes Gold Stocks As Price Rise Dents Demand - Trade Body
R M India courtesy --...
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GOLD hit by DOLLAR, trading at $830.70 an ounce...
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