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Market Analysis - Fundamental View
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8th September, 2008:
stoxand more news
Sensex (14483) & Nifty (4352)
Last weekend, US markets received a big relief in the form of US Govt. taking over the mortgage giants Frennie and Fraddie which has already boosted the DOW futures by a good 2% + at present and all the Asian markets trading between 3-5% up and this is making us see green across the board. Lehman Brothers probably would get split into two companies with Korean Bank most probably getting larger control in one of them. This will be addressing the financial concern to a great extent. ECB after tremendous expectations for a rate cut maintained the interest rates steady but still the slowdown in the Euro Zone is making the Euro touch its year low and is looking for more downside from here on. Though, Our target of 1.4200 has finally been almost achieved after being given about a month and a half ago. Crude Oil is staying around 110 dollars at present owing to the hurricanes in US but we believe very soon we are going to see a crash towards 100 dollars if it is not able to cross 113 dollars level.
USD-JPY though is facing consistent pressure around 110 mark and will consistently do so till we do not see improvement visible in the US economy. USD INR is moving in the direction in line with the Indian economy facing good amount of fiscal deficits.
For Indian markets, NSG event was a very important event, now since we have clinched it, it will act as a big sentiment booster and a trigger; Also, US Govt. takeover of mortgage giants, Frannie and Freddie is the biggest event of the weekend in terms of global events as this is going to bring about a great degree of relief across the financial domain in the world. The amount of uncertainty revolving around will somewhat get removed. Inflation is expected to come lower this week than last week due to price cuts across many sectors and high base effect of the last year. We should expect a gap up of around 500 points + in Sensex.
We expect equity markets to bounce back to 15500 levels soon, citing easing inflation and absence of major negative triggers. On sectors, Banking, Capital Goods could be good opportunities.
S&P CNX NIFTY
Close: 4352
The current trend is up and all orders on the long side may be considered for today.
If already holding long positions, be prepared to face resistance around 4530 and 4650. We would look to book partial profits on 4530 and 4650.
Suggested standing placement of fail-safe stops...
If Long -- exit all contracts at ... 4,200
If Short -- exit all contracts at ... 4,530
I had recommended in my last article about Sun Pharma & United Phos. Sun Pharma gave very good upmove of 3% returns from the level recommended while United was rated as strong buy gave about 5% returns from the buy levels recommended. I congratulate to all friends who paid heed to this daily article.
I recommended GHCL and Indiabulls Real estate on Friday. Inspite of the volatility both stocks did extremely well with GHCL 5 % from the 82 levels recommended & Indiabulls real estate short call given at 293 and now trading at 261.
Stocks to watch out will be Axis Bank, L & T and IDBI Bank.
...
Tracked by: 4 Boarders
Tau ji, programming could not satisfy me in 15 years, so I am rehearsing to pick stocks taking help from nursery rhymes. Here it is one for you :
One two buckle my shoe
Three, four, knock at the door
Five, six, pick up sticks
Seven, eight, lay them straight
Nine, ten, a big fat hen
Eleven, twelve, dig and delve
Thirteen, fourteen, maids a-courting
Fifteen, sixteen, maids in the kitchen
Seventeen, eighteen, maids in waiting
Nineteen, twenty, my plate's empty.
regards
TC
...
In reply to:
Are you a Long Term Investor ??
Posted by :
keerthi
You can find good investment stocks from the computer programmed stock picks from less strain and more gain. If you have internet connection it is added benefit for learning from other sources. 
Tracked by: 4 Boarders
You can find good investment stocks from the computer programmed stock picks from less strain and more gain. If you have internet connection it is added benefit for learning from other sources....
In reply to:
Are you a Long Term Investor ??
Posted by : TrueCompanion
But this does not seem to fit anywhere in food, habit & shelter chain. Atleast I am not aware of any computer based picking.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
All assets typically overshoot on the way up amid investor euphoria and greed, and equally plunge in extreme terms when the primary trend reverses as gloom and fear prevail.
This might be the last shoe to drop for world markets ahead of a major bottom sometime in early 2009. But the -last shoe- usually drops the hardest and investors are scrambling to government bonds this week ahead of more pain for equities and commodities. The bad news is that history strongly suggests we are not even close to the bottom.
Global stock markets are now deep in a bear market since last fall.From its peak in October 2007, the MSCI World Index of major economies has plunged 23% or its lowest level in more than two years.The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, all the rage for global investors until earlier this year, has crashed 28% in 2008 and is now over 32% off its all-time high. Emerging market corporate earnings are highly correlated to commodities. And that rally is over.
Since July, investors have gone from an inflation obsession to one of deflation, or an environment of falling prices.Its truly ugly.
Finally, in terms of historical bear market declines and duration, we are still not at the point of maximum pessimism.
According to Ned Davis Research, since 1960 the average bear market has lasted about 14 months and has taken stocks down about 31% before hitting bottom.
This suggests we can easily decline another 10% from these levels as more bad news filters out from USA earnings, bank losses and fears of recession.
If you are looking for a place to hide theres only Treasury bonds. Everything else is down hard except on Monday 08 Sep.2008!!!!! ...
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Markets likely to bounce back as oil and inflation went on slide and NSG positive response with new business and new developments and positive mood to economy will lead this market back to surge.
Next week sensex as well Nifty will be on new level.
...
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Dated: 7th September, 2008 {Estimation of National (Nifty Index) and International scenario}
The last week, the movement of the Sensex & Nifty on one day has been going up by about 500 points in Sensex and 200 points in Nifty on Tuesday but from the very next day till Friday, the above game in Sensex and Nifty was lost as market went down and remains under pressure.
Now on Monday, the next trading week is going to start positively with a gap up opening of 150-200 points in Sensex and 50-70 points in Nifty. Thereafter, throughout the week from Tuesday to Friday, overall trend of Sensex & Nifty will remain positive. It is possible that the inflation data for the week may also come down from the last week data of 12.34which will also be positive for the stock market.
In the very short period, the above positive trend in the market may take Sensex to at least 1500 points above from current level (4352) and the Nifty may touch 5100 mark.
The positive trend in the market may also continue till October end and both the Sensex and Nifty may go further up. The expected target of Nifty looks 5400-5500 and for Sensex around 16700.
You are welcome to join:
scservice (Nifty Index Analysis) at Yahoo Finance Group
For Saraswati Consultancy Services,
Vivek Verma,
Ashok Kapoor
...
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NSG Meeting outcome would be crucial to lift the sentiments of the market in short term along with the continuing decline in the crude oil prices. ...
Tracked by: 19 Boarders
Hi,
Kalidasaji will be back from US in the middle of September and resume posting messages around 15th September...
In reply to:
INFLATION and STOCK MARKETS
Posted by :
neeraj_mod
dear sir kalidas
where are you, we are missing your post
neeraj
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Hi ALL,
Kalidasaji will be back from US in the middle of September and resume posting messages around 15th September
rgds
Shiva
...
Tracked by: 19 Boarders
Hi Kalidasaji will be back from US in the middle of September and resume posting messages around 15th September
rgds
Shiva
...
In reply to:
INFLATION and STOCK MARKETS
Posted by : wipro
Hello Anil sir,
Plz come back as we really need your guidance in this time.Please start posting again.With interest and enthusiasm every i visit your message board for new topic but i will go away with sadness as there no new topic from you.
Sir, Can you please share with us u r new book name and cost so that i too can purchase and how about developing one new b l o g on your name.
Thanks
Wipro
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Thank You. Our Nifty call was for wealth creation for all investors like you. ...
In reply to:
Kheloo India
Posted by : Guest
Kheloo India Kheloo. Good call.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Kheloo India Kheloo. Good call....
In reply to:
Kheloo India
Posted by : 9975797577
Buy Nifty Fut cmp 4370 for 4500 ......positional buy sl 4270
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Buy Nifty Fut cmp 4370 for 4500 ......positional buy sl 4270...
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somebody needs to stop this otherwise innocent investors will loose heavily in this new ipo like resurge,austral,akruti nirman etc which are been operated by ahmd group which is also known as raj kapoor exchange who do big volumes in scrip and atrract people by upper or lower circuit.,it seems their is no inquiry or either investigation in this scrips which seems that exchanges are also involved in this manipulation with this groups, sebi shold act fast just by impounding the entire money for this scrips and deposit this money in investor protection fund ., raise your voice for your fellow investors just to safeguard them...
Tracked by: 1 Boarder
O * O... why the figures didnt appear...???
I said am waiting 4 it settle around the 85 to 100 dollars band.......
In reply to:
Wil Crude at help our cause?-Pranky!!
Posted by : pranky
Hmmmmm...... Well what about my predictions, Mrs.Doubtfire...??? :)
I said this long back, when crude was at 130 plus:-- That it will go below 100 $, once again.... Hmmmmm..... Now, waiting for it to settle at - 0 zone, so that an all-new, fully & completely fresh bull run begins.... Thats the way..AHA..! :) :)
A Toast on that note..!!! :)
...Cheers!!
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