Offline
| Post a Message | Explore Forums | Browse Stock Messages | Hot Discussions | Top rated Messages | Top Boarders | |
|
|
|
You are here : Moneycontrol  MMB Market View |
| The latest messages in different topics under Market View are displayed on this page |
Market View
Tracked by: 6 Boarders
Dear Kalidas
I would like to congratulate you on the excellent guidance & vision you have provided to the boarders of MMB in the last one year.I have always believed full credit should be given where it is due and MMB has greatly benefitted by your sterling efforts.
May the good work continue.
regards
wbuffett001...
In reply to:
SENSEX to rally by 2400 pts in 7 days
Posted by :
Kalidas
for wbuffet001
I can not believe it. It is hyped up figure. Anyway, let us leave it at that.
Kalidas, Hong kong
6-10-2008 
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Oh ok..I thought it in different way, anyway if your waiting horizon it will all get recovered...Best of luck......
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
hsnmf
Thanks for your concern.Most losses in ULIP scheme of ICICI Prudential Life Insurance and Reliance Golden Year Plan. The other losses are in Mutual Funds.
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
I agree with you pkk07!
That is a BS myth that FIIs make money! :)
Just put yourself in the FIIs`s shoes and feel the LIQUIDITY pressures. :)
Only thing is that those FIIs manage to do ther hedging properly.
In this GAME of BILLION of dollars, removing those Billion of dollars without making any LOSS would sound Strange to me!
For any FRESH investments, I would say instead of waiting for 3400, wait for the time when FIIs start SELLing at dirt cheap prices! 3400 should provide those wonderful opportunities in current situations!
Those FIIs would not like to sell Index stocks heavily as those FIIs would like to maintain the CONTROL on Indian market in longer run!
If those BS FIIs REALLY wish to make an exit, let them do at very, dirt cheap prices! :)
By SELLing Billions of dollars in millions, I am unable to understand how someone can make money! Only thing is that they use lot of leveraged money. For this, one need to understand how much money actually is being used! :)
That is why, GAME has turned interesting today! :)
Let us hope for the best! Those Big PLAYers continue to PLAY Sensible GAMES!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : pkk07
I think it is a myth that FIIs make money. The size of their investments is so big that they can not pull out all their money out quickly when the times look bad.
Another thing: I was looking at a poll in moneycontrol asking people when would they start buying - at 3600, 3500 or 3400? Majority are waiting for 3400. That gives me the clue that we will not go there. Not at least now.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Technical analyst C.J.Mathews Sankarathil,MBA told the media that the fall of market will end by October last.He added that the fall will be limited to 11000 levels.He denied the arguments of falling markets to 10000 levels. He is positive on Indian Market and see an uptrend from November 2008....
Report it Rate Reply ...
In reply to:
Where do you see the Nifty bottoming out?
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear boarders
Sky is USA Land is India!
Regards
aahoo...
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Dear HLN,
This is my first post to you ever.
I have read many of your posts so far.What you have predicted so many months back has come exactly true today. You definitely deserve utmost praise for this prediction.Please accept my heartfelt congratulations. I can say you know your TA and EWT theory quite well.I suggest you to predict only indices levels in future with very very broad time indications ( + or - three to six months )and not commit on the exact time frame which is most difficult to predict as everyone knows.However even this cannot deflect anything away from the credit you richly deserve. I always feel we have to give credit where it is due and between you & Kalidas , MMB has been served well in the last one year.
Coming to the future , please keep up the good work and give us your broad view on when you expect the U turn in the markets.
Personally I have been investing continously since Oct / Nov 2007 and continue to buy even now. By nature and reasoning , I am a very LT investor who normally holds shares for 3 + years at the minimum.
To be frank I have managed to get a tremendous CAGR in the last ten years ( way way out of normal expectations) by asset swapping across asset classes and sectoral rotations inside the stock markets , long term front running in FII investible sectors.Even as a LT investor , I feel that picking shares at lower index levels can be definitely helpful as this will increase the volume of purchase as well giving a better of margin of safety in price.
I still believe sensex 22000 levels are possible in second half of 2009 and even started a thread to that effect sometime back.Your take will be useful.
regards,
wbuffett001...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Hi boarders,
I am very thankful to you for all your messages compimenting
for accurate precition of Nifty hitting 3600.
I am also very grareful to you for making this thread so lively
and so active.
1. 108 prudent boarders tracking it
2. More than 2000 messages posted every month
3. Most active thread of MMB.
THANKS A MILLION BOARDERS, AGAIN AND AGAIN
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
It looks like that nifty will touch 3150-3000 level, if it breaks 3400 level. Smart pullback rally is on the card at any time from now. For upside nifty has to cross 3750-3900 level. Sensex has a very good support at 11500-11300. If it breaks 11300 level, it can go down to 10300-9800 level. The sentiment has been not so good bcoz of USA financial crisis. There is nothing wrong with India....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
greedy_one
OOPS!NOW WILL NIFTY HIT 3300 AND SENSEX TOUCH 10500?
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
treatment for hiccups... Hmmmm
Tell them to start a new East India company here. We will change their hiccups into chronic TB cough. I hate those UK people. Let them get lost of their own.
shakti
...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : pkjattking
I m hearing Royal bank of Scotland is having hiccups now.... suggest them a treatment....
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
I think it is a myth that FIIs make money. The size of their investments is so big that they can not pull out all their money out quickly when the times look bad.
Another thing: I was looking at a poll in moneycontrol asking people when would they start buying - at 3600, 3500 or 3400? Majority are waiting for 3400. That gives me the clue that we will not go there. Not at least now....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
:)
Reading your views sounds like BEARS have given a good HUG to you! :) :)
Quote
i had friend who was a dealer, he always said, when they buy even if the whole markets sits out to sell, they absorb it and when they sell, its the same, it bleeds every DII, HNI and every other person,
UnQuote
Sounds like Horror Lines from that gafla movie! :) :)
Quote
FII`s only look for fundamentals,
Unquote
If FIIs REALLY care about FUNDAMENTALS, then nothing to worry! :)
Btw, Those FIIs themselves do not have any fudnamentals. Strange that they look for fundamentals! :) :)
FIIs only look for making Money ! Those FIIs hardly care what is the name of counter! For them, that is just a counter to make money! :)
90% of traders in that losers list also include many FIIs! :) :)
Anyway, FIIs are just MONEY Hungry. :)
Just for information: Even an NRI or politicians kins can OPEN an account in the name of FIIs! :) So you will never get to know who those FIIs actually are! :)
FIIs is just some loose term given to those who are using the money from outside to bring into India! : ) :)
If that drop from Relianace from 2500 to 1700 is called capitualtion due to some FUNDAMENTAL changes, then I am surprise at the very meaning of that capitulation! :)
Probably, you have not understood REAL capitulation! Real capitulation happened when Lehman went BURST along with other financial companies! :) :)
Indian companies as of now appear to be exist! I hope in the name of those Bears HUGS, you would not start saying that all Indian companies in the market are going for a TOSS! :)
Btw, here is the official definition
--
In the stock market, capitulation is associated with `giving up` any previous gains in stock price as investors sell equities in an effort to get out of the market and into less risky investments. True capitulation involves extremely high volume and sharp declines. It usually is indicated by panic selling.
Investopedia Says... After capitulation selling, it is thought that there are great bargains to be had. The belief is that everyone who wants to get out of a stock, for any reason (including forced selling due to margin calls), has sold. The price should then, theoretically, reverse or bounce off the lows. In other words, some investors believe that true capitulation is the sign of a bottom.
--
Even those FIIs suffer from that capitulation phase and make losses in the GAME! :) Let us use their billions of dollars to make Money! They want to DISTRIBUTE that for free! :) :)
Have fun!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
An interesting article
--
The Challenges of the New World Order
America is no longer up to shouldering the world’s crises. But who is going to take its place? Russia, Brazil, China and India are all rising, but they are also competing with Europe and the US for finite natural resources. Only a common future -- a `change through rapprochement` and not a `clash of futures` can carry us forward.
he Alfred Herrhausen Society, the international forum of Deutsche Bank, is organizing a new project entitled Foresight in order to analyze and compare the future visions of emerging and existing world powers. Through discussion and debate, it hopes to find elements for a common future. The inaugural event held in Moscow brought together participants from Brazil, China, Europe, Japan, India, Russia, the United States and other parts of the world to discuss Russia’s role in a multipolar world. Further symposia are planned in the United States after the presidential elections, Europe, Japan, India, China, and Latin America. These events will also include high-level participants from Africa, the Arab world, and the Asia Pacific countries. One of the main goals of this series is to see the world through the eyes of others, rather than through a purely Eastern or Western lens.
New alliances that set countries against one another will not be able to solve the challenges of the 21st century. New forms of international cooperation, consultation, and compromise will have to play a central role in a multipolar world. It is absurd that Italy belongs to the G-8, but not China or Brazil. And what sort of meaning can a global security council have when India, Brazil, and the European Union are left out, while France and Great Britain are permanent members?
Needed are new forms of international governance: in a world with diminishing resources and accelerating climate change, states might be tempted to pursue their own interests in order to gain short-term advantages. The challenge will be to devise a new international framework and an organized balance of interests. Only a common future -- `change through rapprochement` not a `clash of futures` -- can bring us further.
Certainly, the past ten years provide much cause for pessimism. In order for the next ten years to be a success, we will need to be fortified by a credible, if skeptical, optimism. ...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : pkjattking
Personally I feel as I go around Usa and look around real estate values and compare it to rest of world.... I don`t see them over blown.... expect a few metro areas or in really rich neighborhoods .. so even if us government buys bad debt...with bailout money.. now and if things turn around I think they have pretty good chance of even making a profit on this bail money...... only if the money is used wisely of course.....
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Mr. Karabell is president of River Twice Research. His latest book, "Chimerica: How the United States and China Became One," will be published next year by Simon & Schuster....
In reply to:
A Nation on the Grill
Posted by : sambala
There is no small irony in the fact that state-driven capitalism, which is the norm in the Persian Gulf and China, finds the U.S. too restrictive. Sovereign wealth funds, with enough cash on hand to bail out Wall Street and the U.S. housing market many times over, invested billions a year ago but are now saying no.
Uncertain growth for the United States is one reason. But the nature of the American regulatory regime is also to blame. Sarbanes-Oxley and the Patriot Act -- whose anti-money-laundering provisions had the unintended consequence of repelling legitimate investors -- combined with a tax code that places a heavy burden on corporations doing business in the U.S. has meant that, as the wealth transfer has happened, there is less and less inclination for global institutions to place that capital in the U.S.
This is a fact regardless of whether you believe that a high corporate tax rate is morally and fiscally correct. In truth, because of the differentials between high U.S. corporate taxes and the rates in Europe (lower) and Asia (in places nonexistent), even U.S.-listed companies that operate globally keep their profits outside the U.S., and thereby avoid those high taxes altogether.
In addition, the regulatory requirements of listing a company in the U.S. have led many companies to look to other markets and other exchanges for financing, hence the boom of financial centers such as Hong Kong, Dubai and even London.
This should not be a partisan argument. It is perfectly fair to argue that wealthy corporations should pay a greater share of the tax base than struggling middle-class Americans. Fair, but not realistic. The U.S. government can no longer dictate to global capital. Once, when the U.S. was the engine of global growth, when the world needed Wall Street for funding, capital could be taxed and controlled by the fiat of the U.S. government. No longer. The U.S. may have the will; it does not have the power.
The current debate in Washington gives no indication that this reality is understood. Both sides of the aisle are susceptible to a false sense of American economic sovereignty. Companies and countries flush with cash increasingly view U.S. laws, regulations and attitudes as undue burdens. As consumer activity accelerates outside the U.S. and Europe, and as financial centers spring up elsewhere, there is increasingly less inclination and less need for the world to go either to Wall Street or to Main Street.
For now, even with the breakdown of Wall Street, the U.S. remains vital to the global economy. It is the largest market, with a dynamic consumer culture, innovative companies, and is deeply enmeshed in the international system. But it is not the alpha and the omega; it is not the center; and the crisis hitting Wall Street is leading the rest of the world to form bonds that bypass the U.S.
Not all of this need be an absolute negative. In a truly interconnected world, more affluence and activity globally can be a universal benefit. U.S. companies operating outside the United States and Europe have already been reaping the rewards. But failure to accept the new reality will lead to the worst of all worlds.
As the U.S. government plunges into the markets, we must understand that this is the end of an era, and that attempts to unilaterally force capital to stay here will only lead to its continued flight. We are now one market among many, a huge and affluent one to be sure, but a wise nation recognizes both its strengths and its limitations. A more secure domestic capital base depends on the U.S. being seen as a desirable place for investment, and not as King Lear raging against the storm, alone, deluded and abandoned.
By ZACHARY KARABELL
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
There is no small irony in the fact that state-driven capitalism, which is the norm in the Persian Gulf and China, finds the U.S. too restrictive. Sovereign wealth funds, with enough cash on hand to bail out Wall Street and the U.S. housing market many times over, invested billions a year ago but are now saying no.
Uncertain growth for the United States is one reason. But the nature of the American regulatory regime is also to blame. Sarbanes-Oxley and the Patriot Act -- whose anti-money-laundering provisions had the unintended consequence of repelling legitimate investors -- combined with a tax code that places a heavy burden on corporations doing business in the U.S. has meant that, as the wealth transfer has happened, there is less and less inclination for global institutions to place that capital in the U.S.
This is a fact regardless of whether you believe that a high corporate tax rate is morally and fiscally correct. In truth, because of the differentials between high U.S. corporate taxes and the rates in Europe (lower) and Asia (in places nonexistent), even U.S.-listed companies that operate globally keep their profits outside the U.S., and thereby avoid those high taxes altogether.
In addition, the regulatory requirements of listing a company in the U.S. have led many companies to look to other markets and other exchanges for financing, hence the boom of financial centers such as Hong Kong, Dubai and even London.
This should not be a partisan argument. It is perfectly fair to argue that wealthy corporations should pay a greater share of the tax base than struggling middle-class Americans. Fair, but not realistic. The U.S. government can no longer dictate to global capital. Once, when the U.S. was the engine of global growth, when the world needed Wall Street for funding, capital could be taxed and controlled by the fiat of the U.S. government. No longer. The U.S. may have the will; it does not have the power.
The current debate in Washington gives no indication that this reality is understood. Both sides of the aisle are susceptible to a false sense of American economic sovereignty. Companies and countries flush with cash increasingly view U.S. laws, regulations and attitudes as undue burdens. As consumer activity accelerates outside the U.S. and Europe, and as financial centers spring up elsewhere, there is increasingly less inclination and less need for the world to go either to Wall Street or to Main Street.
For now, even with the breakdown of Wall Street, the U.S. remains vital to the global economy. It is the largest market, with a dynamic consumer culture, innovative companies, and is deeply enmeshed in the international system. But it is not the alpha and the omega; it is not the center; and the crisis hitting Wall Street is leading the rest of the world to form bonds that bypass the U.S.
Not all of this need be an absolute negative. In a truly interconnected world, more affluence and activity globally can be a universal benefit. U.S. companies operating outside the United States and Europe have already been reaping the rewards. But failure to accept the new reality will lead to the worst of all worlds.
As the U.S. government plunges into the markets, we must understand that this is the end of an era, and that attempts to unilaterally force capital to stay here will only lead to its continued flight. We are now one market among many, a huge and affluent one to be sure, but a wise nation recognizes both its strengths and its limitations. A more secure domestic capital base depends on the U.S. being seen as a desirable place for investment, and not as King Lear raging against the storm, alone, deluded and abandoned.
By ZACHARY KARABELL...
In reply to:
A Nation on the Grill
Posted by : sambala
America and the New Financial World
Politicians can make the adjustment more or less painful
Soon enough, America`s financial crisis will wind down -- maybe in a month, maybe in a year. Yet regardless of when, this crisis marks the beginning of a new era for the U.S. For more than six decades, from the end of World War II in 1945 until now, the U.S. was the hub of global capital and capitalism. In the years to come, it will remain a vital center, but not the center.
In 1945, after an exhausting three decades of exertion against Germany, the United Kingdom emerged militarily victorious only to see itself economically exhausted. A year later, it was bankrupt, unable to find capital and on the verge of collapse. It had nowhere to turn but the U.S., which then dictated terms that amounted to a withdrawal of Great Britain from the world stage. The U.S. is not yet in the position of Great Britain, and our creditors in China are not yet as we were then. But absent a more humble and realistic attitude toward capital in Washington, that is the path we`re headed down.
What is happening to finance today is similar to what happened to manufacturing beginning in the 1970s. Until then, U.S. manufacturing accounted for as much as half of all global output. By the 1970s, Germany and Japan began to exert themselves as manufacturing titans. So did Taiwan, Singapore, Korea and others that had benefited from American aid. The globalization of manufacturing continued, and was accelerated by the information technology revolution of the 1990s. While the U.S. today continues to produce a decent share of global manufactured goods, it is one among many and employs only 13 million people (10% of the workforce) in a sector that in the middle of the 20th century accounted for a third of all jobs. The same thing is now happening with finance.
In the past five years, there has been a transfer of wealth from the U.S. and Europe to Asia, the Middle East and Russia of trillions of dollars for oil and raw materials as well as inexpensive manufactured goods. Whether or not that transfer has been positive or negative for the U.S. economy writ large -- and there is considerable debate on that subject -- the outflow of wealth is a fact.
You can argue that the transfer of dollars to goods-producing countries, China above all, has provided American consumers with products that might otherwise be unaffordable but has had a negative effect on the U.S. labor force. The transfer of wealth to oil-producing states and countries rich in base metals has been an economic drain, especially as the price has spiked and the cost has risen.
That wealth transfer occurred just as the U.S. financial system began to expand its exposure to the housing market. The movement of capital away from the U.S. was one reason hungry banks turned to more absurd forms of leverage. That disguised the erosion of real capital.
Even as that was happening, however, American financial institutions still wore the mantle of global leadership. As China, the Gulf region, India, Brazil and other parts of the world have increased in affluence, they relied on the expertise, acumen and advice of Wall Street. Go to any region of the world and you will find central banks and investment banks staffed by people educated at U.S. business schools and graced with resumes that include time at the formerly premier institutions of Wall Street. Few major deals were brokered without involvement from a U.S. bank or access to Wall Street financing. That is now at an end.
It is at an end for two reasons. One is structural. There are now vibrant economies that don`t depend on the U.S., are not heavily levered, and have a burgeoning, confident and ambitious middle class. But it is also at an end because those newly affluent regions of the world do not find the U.S. a welcoming home for capital.
Cont.....
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
OOPS!NOW WILL NIFTY HIT 3300 AND SENSEX TOUCH 10500?...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : greedy_one
Now WILL NIFTY HIT 330 AND SENSEX TOUCH 10500?
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
America and the New Financial World
Politicians can make the adjustment more or less painful
Soon enough, America`s financial crisis will wind down -- maybe in a month, maybe in a year. Yet regardless of when, this crisis marks the beginning of a new era for the U.S. For more than six decades, from the end of World War II in 1945 until now, the U.S. was the hub of global capital and capitalism. In the years to come, it will remain a vital center, but not the center.
In 1945, after an exhausting three decades of exertion against Germany, the United Kingdom emerged militarily victorious only to see itself economically exhausted. A year later, it was bankrupt, unable to find capital and on the verge of collapse. It had nowhere to turn but the U.S., which then dictated terms that amounted to a withdrawal of Great Britain from the world stage. The U.S. is not yet in the position of Great Britain, and our creditors in China are not yet as we were then. But absent a more humble and realistic attitude toward capital in Washington, that is the path we`re headed down.
What is happening to finance today is similar to what happened to manufacturing beginning in the 1970s. Until then, U.S. manufacturing accounted for as much as half of all global output. By the 1970s, Germany and Japan began to exert themselves as manufacturing titans. So did Taiwan, Singapore, Korea and others that had benefited from American aid. The globalization of manufacturing continued, and was accelerated by the information technology revolution of the 1990s. While the U.S. today continues to produce a decent share of global manufactured goods, it is one among many and employs only 13 million people (10% of the workforce) in a sector that in the middle of the 20th century accounted for a third of all jobs. The same thing is now happening with finance.
In the past five years, there has been a transfer of wealth from the U.S. and Europe to Asia, the Middle East and Russia of trillions of dollars for oil and raw materials as well as inexpensive manufactured goods. Whether or not that transfer has been positive or negative for the U.S. economy writ large -- and there is considerable debate on that subject -- the outflow of wealth is a fact.
You can argue that the transfer of dollars to goods-producing countries, China above all, has provided American consumers with products that might otherwise be unaffordable but has had a negative effect on the U.S. labor force. The transfer of wealth to oil-producing states and countries rich in base metals has been an economic drain, especially as the price has spiked and the cost has risen.
That wealth transfer occurred just as the U.S. financial system began to expand its exposure to the housing market. The movement of capital away from the U.S. was one reason hungry banks turned to more absurd forms of leverage. That disguised the erosion of real capital.
Even as that was happening, however, American financial institutions still wore the mantle of global leadership. As China, the Gulf region, India, Brazil and other parts of the world have increased in affluence, they relied on the expertise, acumen and advice of Wall Street. Go to any region of the world and you will find central banks and investment banks staffed by people educated at U.S. business schools and graced with resumes that include time at the formerly premier institutions of Wall Street. Few major deals were brokered without involvement from a U.S. bank or access to Wall Street financing. That is now at an end.
It is at an end for two reasons. One is structural. There are now vibrant economies that don`t depend on the U.S., are not heavily levered, and have a burgeoning, confident and ambitious middle class. But it is also at an end because those newly affluent regions of the world do not find the U.S. a welcoming home for capital.
Cont........
In reply to:
A Nation on the Grill
Posted by : diliphm
Dear Sir, You are a genuis but you tend to jump to extreme conclusions. And in that sense you are a flawed genius. Regarding your above article, have you considered the role of giant US Corporations earning Billions of Dollars from their operations outside USA and not being able to bring in the profits due to US Tax Laws. Also Trillions of Dollars of Drug money earned in USA and Western Europe and taken to Offshore Tax Havens and laundered and then invested in Hedge Funds and Investment Bank Funds.As in India such money tends to get invested in Real Estate. This money has tremendous indirect influence on US Politicians and economy. May be I am entirely wrong in this but you are more qualified to judge.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
With the latest developments in stock markets,on the back drop of poor liquidity, the indian sensex may not get more than 12 pe multiple for the next few months....So,with the expectation of 1000 eps for the next fiscal 09-10,the maximum valued level for the secnsex could be 12000 for the near term.......
