Sir,
More and More Europe and UK banks are coming up with some or the other bad news . You have not written great analysis on Europe or UK as you write on US. I know they don’t’ reveal much as US does .. But you will know every thing.
. Please give some insight in to European and UK financial market scenarios in next couple of months also future of the currency markets. You know London was ruling financial market once and even now it has great influence . How things are going to look like in future. Just curious
...

Sp Palo,
I doubt any Indian IT companies have invested in American Mortgages except HCL Tech as Kalidasaji sir says.. So companies may not show any loses due to derivative market collapse.
They may loose money as most of them have hedged money for the appreciating rupee @41 or 42 . But rupee depreciated so much which was unexpected. This would be compensated by the Rs deprecation as most of IT billings are in $s. Going down the line q3 will be good . q4 may be a hit. Q1 09 and q2 09 may see reduced volume. As Kalidasji says there may be great businesses coming down the line due to total new framework for the financial market . Looks like financial market may have to come up with new rules and regulations which needs to be incorporated in the IT. Other businesses like Manufacturing or telcocom /HiTech IT business may see some decline coming down the line . This may start showing later part of 09 or early 2010.
I feel IT will have great days coming by 2010 . But till then it will be pain

Rgds
shiva
...

Sir,
Please check ,Your all latest messages are deleted.I have read thoguse messages yesterday when you posted .But now they are not appearing..

rgd
shiva...

For Guest.
That was not realistic. That day Brokers like Goldman Sachs dumped shares in last 3to 5 minutes of trade just to scare the public and senators. Kalidasji has reported this. Whole day it was around 500points down suddnly at the end 200 more points down, when buyers are more or less out. That is the reason next day there was huge rallay..

rgds
shiva...

Sir,
Please don`t respond to any of the false allegation. Let them read your old messages in sequnce ,completely and understand the facts. I hope you dont` loose your energy and waste your time for such things.
We are all waiting for your book

rgds
shiva
...

Sir ,

Looks like even market is becoming more realistic and behaving like having commonsense which is lacked in US politicians. Today’s declines appeared to reflect the realization that the plan would not be a medicine for the US`s broad economic and banking woes. Only financial stocks gained, nothing else in US market. Those stocks may continue to do so for few more days.
Job reports in US shows lot of layoffs which only is expected to grow in coming month. US is in recession which actually might have started few months back.(Greenspan may even now say that 70% chances of recession:-). Couple of months back it was 50%:-)).
Few months back you had said "Forget inflation we might be in depression. All commodities prices will go down so is gold".
Now my question is depression a prolonged recession? What are the indicators for depression and for the recession. Because prices of everything and any thing fall down in both cases. Except for the secrecy in your forthcoming book all indicators are for he Gold prices to go down. Whole world except few countries like India are in deep financial crises where money has evaporated . Assuming that prices of Gold going down to what minimum it can go?? 400$ PerOunce??

Rgds
Shiva
...

635,585 are all prices Kalidasaji was refereing to Quantum Gold ETF traded in NSE. Its one unit is half gram value. So Double it it will give you the 1 gram value
Shiva...

for shia, I have written in the past that nothing would have happened to Europe had they not bought the useless CDO/CDS papers from US banks and brokers who created this parallel economy. ` Once I have mentioned that there was fundamental difference between the mortgage as practiced in Europe, Hong Kong, Asia, India AND the one practiced in USA. It was presumed by European and British banks that mortgage type of finance is always secured and with little risk, without realizing that practices were different across the continents. They thought that the mortgage in USA is similar to one in UK and Europe. they looked only at the financial part of the product, not the legal part where they made the most serious mistake. It may be noted that even in USA, the fall in property prices is still not over 15% in most of locations. The real trouble came not from primary lender side, but from derivative side which were having only second lien, that is, their debt was subordinated to Primary Lenders. So the losses in UK and Europe is not related to the weakness in mortgage in primary market but in instruments purchased by them from the flamboyant brokers and banks from USA. Further, Europe is not English speaking, so information flow from there is very slow and inaccurate. There are many languages from French, German, Italian, Spanish, Italian, Polish, and host of smaller countries, similar to India where we have more than 50 languages across 26 to 28 states. But Hindi is a common language which is not the case in Europe All of us listen and educate ourselves in USA, UK, Australia, India, Pakistan, Sri lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal etc because the English is the common link language and almost all communications from TV media to Newspapers are bilingual. We therefore know more about these countries than others. Europe made a mistake in not having common language. It is more like monetary union than political or social. this will fail in course of time. Kalidas, Hong Kong 9-10-2008...

Dear shiva, The total new framework which you and Kalidasji are talking about will take years before they trully come into action. The will be more job cuts this year in IT sector. The IT companies in India will have to face serious problems due to lack of projects and maintenance work in BFS segment which were coming from outside for next 2-3 years. The domestic market for software development is almost saturated for new projects. regards shakti...

for shia I know some messages have disappeared. I do not know who deleted them. May be some interested quarters or some one else - I have no idea. Let it be that way - why to waste time on the past. Let us look to the future. Kalidas, Hong Kong 5-10-2008...

Then why do you think it lost more then 700 points on last Monday when the bill failed first time ? Do you think its realistic ? ...

for shia, When the patient is admitted to the hospital, he is screened, x-rayed, cardiogrammed. CT Scanned, and all tests. The doctor then try to determine what could have been wrong, by which time the disease has deteriorated. Last week, I entered the Indian market, considering myself smart, that I was buying back same stocks 15% to 70% cheaper - only to find next two days that ... I was a bit early to enter. I did not control my inner urge after months of discipline. If I say anything about Warren Buffet, people will bounce on me. It is a tremendous risk for me to go against. I took the risk for the first time a few years ago, when Mr. Buffer bought General Re - the re insurer. One of my best client told me, Anilbhai, you should have been careful. The people will begin to put you off. I said that I have loyalty to my client, and tell them what I feel, what the world feel is already known to you through various media - Print, TV, Radio etc. I earn commission from my client giving me business, so I owe to them what should I tell them. The situation is repeated again today. You are asking me to take extra ordinary risk in telling you what I feel. There are many boarders who named themselves after Warren Buffet ( they have disappeared now, that I am proved correct again after a few months) Here is what I feel about legendary Mr. Warren Buffet: 1. He is 78 and does not wait too long for seizing Investment. 2. He has abandoned his eternal virtue - Patience and Avoiding sycophancy or adulation (what you call, maska baji). 3. Too much adulation in the press from every quarter has go to his head and therefore began to falter. 4. He has stopped being an investor. He has become a money lender. Wants 10% interest on all his investment, and invests into Preferred shares, which are riskier than Convertible debt. The debt always have preference over equity, common stock or preferred stock. He has therefore become a "Multani Hundi holder" like many Marwari, Chettyar, Jew, Agarwals or Katchhi Gujaratis. He looks for any yield and not the associated risks. 5. He is too early to enter. His patience are wearing thin. He is entering at beginning of the end. He is entering at a time when Dow has corrected by just 18% from the top (not bottom). 6. He says that he is investing into best managed companies, blue chips etc. In that case, why so called best companies are willing to give him 10% interest for next 5 years, not collateral securities (Warrants are paper and will be worthless if the company goes under). Just position yourself in Indian market with over 1000 crores with you. If you find that potential buyer has lost thousands of crores in recent past, will you give him real hard cash against his paper and promises to pay in future - 5 years later, when the industry? 7. I said against GE almost 11 years ago for the first time, 11 months ago in this column and only perhaps 11 days ago that GE may be next to follow in ... SEC imposed short selling ban, because GE stock is held by almost all pension funds and 401K plan holders. GE has been selling all major assets, has extremely large exposure to derivatives, higher than the people imagine, and huge debt compared to revenue. its Debt level is nearly 3 times the revenue, whereas the healthy company is having revenue 6 times the debt level. I heard on the street comments only yesterday that GE has capital of just $18 billions compared to over $250 billions (or even more) of the debt. GE has lots of interest rate swaps where it will lose most. The market rates today is over 20% (when GE pays 10% how much ordinary corporation will pay?) I hope the time does not come when Warren Buffet has to depend on his own charity money during his last prime days, which are nearly over if we go by his attitude, and investment pattern. Kalidas, Hong Kong 2-10-2008...

Sir what exactly I meant was GE may survive because of Goldman's manipulations not by its core competency. Sir, I also saw news of US SEC extending the Short selling ban till Bill is passed. WHAT A MANIPULATION? US is just acting no way different that than china's way. Free market economy like US is just acting like core socialists/Communist country. After so many years we are coming to the point Socialism or capitalism no clear winner. Two faces of same coin. One needs other. I read some philosopher saying “ I love capitalism because ultimately socialists come and save capitalists” ....

Overview: Fear grips global markets By Michael MacKenzie and David Oakley/ ft . com The failure of US lawmakers to gather enough votes to pass the $700bn bail-out package sparked a dramatic plunge on Wall Street and accelerated the buying of SAFE haven assets including Treasuries and GOLD on Monday. The House of Representatives was unable to produce the 218 votes needed to send the Troubled Asset Relief Program legislation to the Senate for approval. ...