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Reliance may not fall below 1700 in 2008
Posted by :
sridharan_dusiPrice when posted : BSE: Rs 2079.40 ( -3.40 % ), NSE: Rs. 2080.90 ( -3.32 % )
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Dear emkay stocks
I am happy and thankful for your detaled post and shall take note of your views.
Sridharan...
In reply to:
Reliance may not fall below 1700 in 2008
Posted by :
emkay_stocks
Dear Mr.Sridharan, I agree gustav has subdued, so as crude oil and am very thankful to god. Not because markets withstand but coz there will be less calamity in the world. With respsect to markets I strongly believe that market at some point can fall massively which means can correct upto 25-30% even from current levels, which tantamounts to 9900(approx) on the sensex. But when can this happen is alsmost getting impossible to predict esp in the recent times market became very very tricky. Some series of bad news may give u a weak technical pattern and suddenly due to other good factors all technicals get changed and bull pattern may emerge. But at some point based on what i feel is 9900 is imminent. If you look at china as well the index fell by more than 60-65%% and not necessary that india has to fall the same and infact some of the fii's say that india may not fall as much as china. if that is true that 12671 is the bottom already formed and may get retested in between. Else the bottom could be 8800-9900 for sure. There will be capitulation from many HNI's and stock prices will go haywire. So my logic in claiming that reliance industries can fall is if market has to fall so much then already some great stocks have corrected a lot, hence reliance will be shorted heavily and also reliance capital. I am expecting reliance to touch 1600-1650 levels and reliance capital to touch 750. Both are highly vulnerable in coming weeks. But next time when somebody sees markets correcting by 20% please go ahead and blindly buy for serious long term investments as markets can test patience for 1-2 years, but bottoms will be formed in that chaotic correction. Listen to what people/analysts say but understand the realities as well by reading financial magazines and noticing what is happening around the world and where india is heading in the next 15-20 years. I am giving list of 10 stocks based on my expertise and choice and am sure will be wealth creators. I have also given the price range where they have to bought because in markets are much smarter than we are. In some cases, stocks bottom first and then market may bottom and opposite could happen too. The choice of companies goes to show what kind of person i am. I love companies emerging into top league. I am very bullish on capital goods for the next 5 years easily and more than that. Hence my list consists of lot of capital goods companies.
L&T - 1800
PUNJ LLOYD - 180-200
BGR ENERGY - 200-225
RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE - 600-650
SIEMENS - 360-375
PRAJ INDUSTRIES - 100-110
ELECON ENGG - 75-90
PATEL ENGINEERING - 300-325
RELIANCE CAPITAL - 750-775
KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK - 450-500
I personally against crazy valuations of gmr infra and also ksk energy, reliance power. The real value stock in the power sector is CESC with power, retail, realestate play in it. Good luck. 
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
PLS BE AWARE AREAVA WH HOLDS NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY IS separately listed co in france ,indian ops is only abt t and d.
where co can score is more orders of transmission, transformer new facility can get more prder etc.
THAT TOO OVER NXT 8-10 YRS....
In reply to:
N-DEAL
Posted by : raajan03
NSG clearance should augur well for Areva and we could see some positive development on the stock on monday (this could also a positive impact on some others like L & T, Punj Lloyd, BHEL etc) Although Areva, India will not be directly involved with the nuclear reactors there would be definitely some positive fallout from the parent to the Indian subsidiary.
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Sorry details given in your msg are not correct. As per my knowledge and information the company has declared dividend of Rs. 2 per share for which bookclosure date is from 16th sep to 19th Sep. AGM will be held of 25th Sep. Dividend will be paid only it is approved by shareholders in AGM....
In reply to:
3.8 Rupees dividend this month
Posted by :
vikiitd
Spanco tele
first dividend is Rs 2.00 Ex date 12 Sept.
Next dividend is 1.8 Ex Date 25 September
Total 3.8 Rs dividend this month from this stock. (Source BSE)
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
see the later part abt wis.
ABG Shipyard, the largest private shipyard, has been the key beneficiary of the higher demand for support vessels (SV) or ships used in oil exploration and other activities. Its current order book of Rs 8,985 crore, which is almost 8.1 times its FY08 revenue, provides revenue visibility for the next four to five years.
While the growth in order book has largely been driven by demand from the oil and gas sector, the company has also benefited from demand for small and specialised vessels such as cost guard, pollution control and short sea trade vessels used in different activities by corporate and government agencies, which accounts for over 25 per cent of its order book.
The critical part is the expansion of capacities, which will help in timely execution of existing orders and to tap the upcoming opportunities in the sector.
ABG is expanding its capacities through organic and inorganic initiatives. It acquired Vipul Shipyard to expand its Surat facility, which is expected to be operational by FY09 and will result in an increase of about 40 per cent in capacity to 44 vessels.
The company’s Dahej facility will be fully commissioned by the end of FY2010, which will have capacity to produce four off-shore rigs and ships up to 1,20,000 dwt. Notably, the company is setting up its biggest shipyard on a 300 acre land in South Gujarat at an investment of Rs 1,200 crore.
However, this facility will become operational in about three years and will build only 6-8 large vessels (annual revenue potential of around Rs 2,000 crore). In ship repairing, which is a growing and high margin business, ABG is in the process of acquiring Western India Shipyard Company (WIS).
In FY08, WIS reported revenues of Rs 43.66 crore and net loss of Rs 28.73 crore. WIS currently has capabilities to repair vessels up to 60,000 dwt. Post restructuring and integration with ABG, prospects for WIS also look good. Overall, the prospects look good and the strong order book and expansion plans should see ABG grow at 35-40 per cent annually over the next three years.
Bharati Shipyard
Bharati Shipyard, the second largest private shipyard in the domestic shipbuilding industry, manufactures different kind of ships such as cargo and tankers with focus on offshore vessels, which account for 70 per cent of its order book.
Increasing E&P expenditure along and ageing of offshore vessels augur well for Bharati. The company’s foray into manufacture of off-shore rigs will reap benefits in the longer term. It is currently manufacturing one off shore rig for Great Offshore.
In the near term, the company’s order book of Rs 4,870 crore (seven times its FY08 revenues) provides good visibility; revenues should grow at 35-40 per cent annually for the next three years.
Its ongoing two greenfield projects at Dabhol and Mangalore with total investment of Rs 1,050 crore are expected to be completed by FY11.
The company believes, post commissioning of these facilities, it would be able to generate business which would be about 5-6 times its current turnover at 100 per cent capacity utilisation.
These capacities will help increase revenues and also facilitate faster execution of orders. In light of these developments, Bharati should show healthy growth.
Shipbuilding capacity
The current order book at the end of May 2008 is about 523.3 million dead weight tonnage or cargo weight. This is more than 50 per cent of the current capacity and is expected to be delivered over the next 4 years.
The reason for such a high percentage? Higher freight rates. Says Revati Kasture, head, Industry Research, CARE Research, "The shipping freight rates remained buoyant in 2004, 2005, 2006 resulting in an ordering spree among the shipping companies."
If a major part of this comes onstream there will be a large overcapacity at a time when growth numbers are muted. However, Citibank research report on yard capacity in key centres such as Korea and China shows that slippages in delivery due to shortage of slots (capacity) at the shipyards will mean that shipbuilders will fall short by 17-18 per cent and 35-37 per cent in 2008 and 2009 deliveries keeping the demand supply situation tight.
China has overcommitted and orders were cancelled as they could not scale up capacity to meet the influx of fresh orders. Additional yard supply is coming in from China, Vietnam, India and Korea in that order.
Says Sharma, "In addition to the lack of capacity at shipyards, reasons for the slippage are the shortage of components.” Despite the talk of a slowdown and excess capacity, the ship building sector industry could see two years of robust growth backed by strong charter rates and overflowing order books.
While the shipbuilding industry is dominated by Korea, China and Japan accounting for 87 per cent of supply, Indian ship builders such as Bharati Shipyard and ABG Shipyard could pose a threat over the next decade on the back of a engineering talent pool, cheap labour and tying up of their component supply chain.
...
prospects?def BETTER
Posted by : gajabhauPrice when posted : BSE: Rs 235.90 ( 1.01 % ), NSE: Rs. 236.40 ( 1.76 % )
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
sir hv sent private msg.do chk ,tks. by...
In reply to:
prospects?def BETTER
Posted by : vkk43
I know him personally since more than 20 years.
prospects?def BETTER
Posted by : gajabhauPrice when posted : BSE: Rs 235.90 ( 1.01 % ), NSE: Rs. 236.40 ( 1.76 % )
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
NO WONDER UR A PLATINUM BOARDER,say hi to him from his fan who bombards him with so many mails. n he will know who u r atlking abt.
but he has declined to be his friend on facebook.
any recent ideas from him?
PLS POST ON WEBEL ONLY TKS...
In reply to:
prospects?def BETTER
Posted by : vkk43
I know him personally since more than 20 years.
prospects?def BETTER
Posted by : vkk43Price when posted : BSE: Rs 235.90 ( 1.01 % ), NSE: Rs. 236.40 ( 1.76 % )
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
I know him personally since more than 20 years....
In reply to:
prospects?def BETTER
Posted by : gajabhau
TKS HE WAS THE FIRST TO notice selan,repro,icsa n so many of smaller cap stocks.
his vision to see beyond nos n 5 yrs after very good. track him in busi std newspaper on mondays smart investor where he wites as guest columnist.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Investment can be considered in this share at around current market rate for LT....
prospects?def BETTER
Posted by : gajabhauPrice when posted : BSE: Rs 235.90 ( 1.01 % ), NSE: Rs. 236.40 ( 1.76 % )
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
TKS HE WAS THE FIRST TO notice selan,repro,icsa n so many of smaller cap stocks.
his vision to see beyond nos n 5 yrs after very good. track him in busi std newspaper on mondays smart investor where he wites as guest columnist....
In reply to:
prospects?def BETTER
Posted by : vkk43
Mr Mudar Patherya is a great analyst. His views are always respected.
Buy on dip
Posted by : vkk43Price when posted : BSE: Rs 34.05 ( -2.30 % ), NSE: Rs. 34.05 ( -1.87 % )
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
This is a great stock for reasonable appreciation over a period. Buy on dip for LT....
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Buy this share for MT as it is looking quite good at current market rate. ...
BHEL, HEC form JV to manufacture castings and forgings
Posted by : zoombusinessPrice when posted : BSE: Rs 1731.75 ( -1.90 % ), NSE: Rs. 1732.25 ( -1.92 % )
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
State-run Bharat Heavy Electricals today said it has formed a 50:50 joint venture with Heavy Engineering Corporation to manufacture castings and forgings.
The companies signed the memorandum of understanding at Ranchi in Jharkhand today. Minister of State for Power Jairam Ramesh and Jharkhand Chief Minister Shibu Soren were also present at the occasion, it said.
The new JV company would manufacture castings and forgings required by the two units of HEC -- Heavy Machine Building Plant and Heavy Machine Tools Plant.
-BS
...
Good buying
Posted by : vkk43Price when posted : BSE: Rs 167.50 ( -5.23 % ), NSE: Rs. 167.65 ( -5.23 % )
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Jai Prakash should do well next week....
In reply to:
Good buying
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prospects?def BETTER
Posted by : vkk43Price when posted : BSE: Rs 235.90 ( 1.01 % ), NSE: Rs. 236.40 ( 1.76 % )
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Mr Mudar Patherya is a great analyst. His views are always respected....
In reply to:
prospects?def BETTER
Posted by : gajabhau
THIS IS WHAT ONE SR ANALYST (PATHERYA) WROTE IN MONEY TODAY ABT THE PROSPECTS OF WEBEL.
no futher argument.
There is a certain buzz about green businesses today. That’s where the Kolkata-based solar photovoltaic cell manufacturer Webel-SL Energy Systems comes in. It has gradually graduated in respect for the following reasons:
• It mastered the monocrystalline technology used for the manufacture of solar photovoltaic cells, which essentially requires the company to use recycled silicon wafers
• Its use of the recycled stuff resulted in a more efficient raw material use over peer companies
• As production stabilised, it widened its marketing footprint and enhanced installed capacity—from 2.5 MW to 10 MW—through declining capital cost per MW Webel-SL was a fair company with reasonable fundamentals—revenues of Rs 106.8 crore and profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 7.69 crore in 2006-7—until the game changed. Moser Baer announced its entry with a capacity that was multiples of Webel-SL’s; Reliance recently announced an industry entry that is multiples of Moser Baer’s.
So where does that leave Webel-SL?
• One, given the global priority to invest in renewable energy, nobody is crying “overcapacity” just yet
• Webel-SL has formally announced an expansion to 40 MW (cost Rs 180 crore) and thereafter to 100 MW
• The result is that it took Webel-SL 12 years to get to 10MW; it will take the company a mere two years to tenfold this growth
• As an equity picker, I sniff the following opportunity:
• The company is probably undercapitalised at around 10 million equity shares (face value Rs 10 each) and a market capitalisation of around Rs 300 crore (based on fully diluted equity)
• The company has mobilised Rs 120 crore of debt at 350 basis points above London Interbank Offered Rate against a net worth of Rs 85 crore
• At 80% of the company’s 40 MW capacity—expected to be fully commissioned by December 2008—the company can potentially generate more than Rs 500 crore in revenues
• Prevailing surface photovoltage realisations are around $3.8 per watt peak; the management indicates that at $3.5 per watt peak, it can potentially generate an earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin of 22-24%
• The company has indicated that it expects to leverage cash flow and debt to fund the next round of capacity growth to 100 MW, no equity dilution; that should translate into a revenue potential of around Rs 1,300 crore (assuming 80% utilisation) on a mere Rs 10 crore of equity
• The company has covered all its requirement of scarce silicon wafers for three years but has an open book for the end product
• Its products are sold across 22 countries with the developed ones accounting for the principal share
• The expansion will derive SEZ advantages and hence save on tax Looks attractive for an interesting play once its expansion goes on stream.
Disclosure: The writer holds stocks in Webel-SL Energy
prospects?def BETTER
Posted by : gajabhauPrice when posted : BSE: Rs 235.90 ( 1.01 % ), NSE: Rs. 236.40 ( 1.76 % )
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
THIS IS WHAT ONE SR ANALYST (PATHERYA) WROTE IN MONEY TODAY ABT THE PROSPECTS OF WEBEL.
no futher argument.
There is a certain buzz about green businesses today. That’s where the Kolkata-based solar photovoltaic cell manufacturer Webel-SL Energy Systems comes in. It has gradually graduated in respect for the following reasons:
• It mastered the monocrystalline technology used for the manufacture of solar photovoltaic cells, which essentially requires the company to use recycled silicon wafers
• Its use of the recycled stuff resulted in a more efficient raw material use over peer companies
• As production stabilised, it widened its marketing footprint and enhanced installed capacity—from 2.5 MW to 10 MW—through declining capital cost per MW Webel-SL was a fair company with reasonable fundamentals—revenues of Rs 106.8 crore and profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 7.69 crore in 2006-7—until the game changed. Moser Baer announced its entry with a capacity that was multiples of Webel-SL’s; Reliance recently announced an industry entry that is multiples of Moser Baer’s.
So where does that leave Webel-SL?
• One, given the global priority to invest in renewable energy, nobody is crying “overcapacity” just yet
• Webel-SL has formally announced an expansion to 40 MW (cost Rs 180 crore) and thereafter to 100 MW
• The result is that it took Webel-SL 12 years to get to 10MW; it will take the company a mere two years to tenfold this growth
• As an equity picker, I sniff the following opportunity:
• The company is probably undercapitalised at around 10 million equity shares (face value Rs 10 each) and a market capitalisation of around Rs 300 crore (based on fully diluted equity)
• The company has mobilised Rs 120 crore of debt at 350 basis points above London Interbank Offered Rate against a net worth of Rs 85 crore
• At 80% of the company’s 40 MW capacity—expected to be fully commissioned by December 2008—the company can potentially generate more than Rs 500 crore in revenues
• Prevailing surface photovoltage realisations are around $3.8 per watt peak; the management indicates that at $3.5 per watt peak, it can potentially generate an earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin of 22-24%
• The company has indicated that it expects to leverage cash flow and debt to fund the next round of capacity growth to 100 MW, no equity dilution; that should translate into a revenue potential of around Rs 1,300 crore (assuming 80% utilisation) on a mere Rs 10 crore of equity
• The company has covered all its requirement of scarce silicon wafers for three years but has an open book for the end product
• Its products are sold across 22 countries with the developed ones accounting for the principal share
• The expansion will derive SEZ advantages and hence save on tax Looks attractive for an interesting play once its expansion goes on stream.
Disclosure: The writer holds stocks in Webel-SL Energy
...
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