Dear shareviews,

My kind of calculations have worked for me in INDIA till now.
Do you think INVESTORS were responsible for worldmarket fluctuations of 2007 to 2008 period in Metals, USD , stocks , commodities etc !
In ANY market , SPECULATORS and OPERATORS are ALWAYS there.
They make you think what they want to and they trade just in opposite direction.
My view is, Operators are in BUY MODE at present .
Rest is all crap.
They were the ones who had initiated shorts since Oct2007 , they are wise and deserve standing ovation. Now as per my view they have ALREADY covered their shorts, have INCREASED their longs or holdings in the companies they are interested in .
By August 2009 to March 2010 we will have DOUBLE TOP in bse30 index and nifty50 index is VERY PROBABLE POSSIBILITY as per my own personal view based on my limited knowledge on charts.
We may even cross previous tops if enough shorts are created at lower levels by fools.
2 weeks to go now for end of bearish sentiments.
For level crazy readers- 12050, 11600, 11200 for bse 30 index level.
Usually when stocks are available cheap and at attractive rates , and even when there is enough cash available , most investors do not buy anything at all as they are scared.
They buy near tops and then feel sorry.
3 day simple moving average will be good friend who will let you know when you may buy. Any close above 3 day simple moving average now onwards will signal new fresh upmove for the market.
For smart ones - hint- USA and INDIA elections
worst quarterly result announcements will play pivotal and important role.
Thank you all responsible for boarder of the day
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari...

Dear Friends,
The last few messages on tech board like 10 9 8 countdown and does anybody wonder why etc pointed that , for any clear view , waiting till sep 08 quarter end was necessary, TODAY 30 Sep 08 Tuesday is that QUARTERLY CLOSE DAY , thus an important close will be there for anybody interested in charts, that close will be PIVOTAL POINT for OCT to DEC 08 quarter , above this close bullish outlook and below it bearish outlook.
Today morning when i was looking at some charts , namely monthly, weekly and daily charts of selected shares , interesting formations like bullish positive divergence in 14 rsi indictor, multiple bottom zone , stoch about to give buy etc were clearly visible, thus,
MY VIEW is,
In next 3 weeks time that is, by 21 October 2008 current downmove will be over and market will fiercely turn upwards, reason will be shorts created at lower levels by weak bears.
Earliest possible turning can be anytime today onwards, for signal, daily close above its 3 day simple moving average will be good enough for me.
Wish you all profits and peace of mind and HAPPY DIWALI and PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR,
Wishing in advance as my next message may be after diwali around 31 Dec 2008 as now onwards i will be writing only on and around quarterly close days .
Warm regards as always,
Vipul Lashkari...

Dear Excel47,
In next five years i expect it to cross its previous swing top of 220 Rs from which it is trading at 14 Rs at present.
The Fundamentals have remained same or maybe are better today than in the past when its normal price pre-equity reduction was 6 Rs per share.2004 to 2006 period.
Today in sep 2008 it is 14 rs is just 1.4 rs if we want to compare it with its past data for practical chart purpose therefore, 1300 Rs share is now trading at 1.4 Rs per share. Percent erosion in shareholder\\`s worth is just too much at present. Just go to bse website , go to charting link of 500389 stock which is silverline technology and then intraday chart will appear, change time period to 6 dec 2007 to present day and then check monthly, weekly, daily charts with 3 period moving average and stoch indicator and 14 rsi indicator and macd indicator one by one , read about positive divergences on any tech analysis webpage or book.
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
a line from hindi film- kyunki picture abhi khatam nahi hua, in other words it has just begun.
...

Dear people/excel47,
Lowest target for any stock is 0.
Delisting. Company going bust.
If you do not know, it has been trading below 3month moving average since it got relisted, it will trade above it in a month or two.
By the high target is so high, i do not want to write it.
Disclaimer- i am holding it, buying more whenever i can so my view is biased one, do not mimick me or blindly follow me as my and your perspective, intention and time horizon for investment and disinvestment may be VERY different.
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari

...

Dear friend,
whether we like it or not, the mother of all bull run is already on since JULY 2008 lows and now onwards will become fierce if shorts are craeted by weak bears/punters.
check bse30 index monthly chart timeperiod last 10 years macd top is there, lower top yet to be formed , with corresponding higher top in index,think about it .bse30 target29800 by March2010.
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
p.s last message got truncated so i am writing short message...

Dear Goldchest,
As a friend and fellow chartist let me share some of my thoughts with you.

You may remember if you had read my messages from Jan08 onwards that i have been talking about still PENDING \\\\...

Dear Friends,

Every seasoned investor has seen ups and downs in his life.
Periods of FRENZY and periods of panic.

Some LEARN from these periods and use them to make smart profit instead of being too greedy when markets are in frenzy or being too scared when markets crash.

Since alltime high made in Jan 08 we are now in third quarter and ninth month to be precise - in correction /sideways move.

Indian Stockmarket -
Some shares are at 50 % from their recent tops of year 2008 and some are trading at below 50 % of their alltime high.
Just because a share is available at 50 % of its alltime high SHOULD NOT BE THE SOLE REASON for BUYING it. Check its past five years price move, check if there was any stock split or bonus or right issue responsible for its price fluctuations, check announcements made and actual progress of those announcements and its effect on balancesheet of company.

Check what is bookvalue of company, check its networth and especially the DEBT in its balancesheet- higher the debt or socalled leveraging - better stay away from that company as higher interestrates can cause havoc for such high debt companies.

Check assets of company- net assets.

Check last three quarters for GROWTH RATE .

Technically, check its yearly chart, quarterly chart and monthly chart - check simple 3 period and 5 period moving average - check its direction and VALUE.

Always prefer small lots when INVESTING.

Invest over a period of next ONE YEAR till Sep 2009.

When PRICE penetrates simple 3 month moving average from below and closes above it on monthly close basis and 3 month simple moving average which is pointing south at present flattens and then TURNS up, then INVEST REST OF THE FUNDS AT A STROKE as THAT WILL BE SIGN OF NEXT BIG UPMOVE.

Whenever at more than 5 to 10 % profit from your cost of purchase in short span of 1 to 2 months time , book profit in small lots in such rallies and reenter at corrections thereby reducing your cost of purchase.

The political uncertainty is always scary for any bull, thus internationally till 5 Nov 2008 marekts will fluctuate wildly but after that date they will eventually STABILISE and sanity and normal mindsets will once again cause less volatile markets.
In INDIA as mentioned before post election period will be of BOOM in stock market - probable period - Nov 2008 to May 2009 where such QUARTERLY REVERSAL TURNING TOWARDS NEW HIGH can materialise.

Logic of quarterly chart shows in current third quarter from top of Jan08, significant volumes show shorts have been covered considerably thus ONE CAN NOT RULE OUT Oct- Dec 08 RALLY.

If such rally happens, its first target will be 61.8 % level of Jan-Mar08 bearish candle and if that level can be breached, then only new high is possible.

If such Oct- Dec 08 rally does not materialise then in FIFTH quarter from top - that is, in Jan- Mar 2009 quarter market will make its LOW and from that low, rally will begin.

Prudent investors shall not worry, stubborn traders will not keep stoploss at open will be losing heavily in any direction.

Do not play f and o.
Do not overtrade.
Do not borrow funds for investing in stocks.
Learn from your mistakes.

Some friends on this technical analysis board ONLY talk about their trades in f and o market, may GOD save them.

Instead of mimicking any analyst or operator , use your own BRAIN before investing your money.

Do not get carried away by BIG names like LEHMAN, MERRILL, MORGAN STANLEY etc in future - they are more vulnerable than YOU. As they play with OTHER\\\\...

As always, Good advice. I have been increasing my INVESTMENT with every drop in the Indices. And am now starting to make long positions in the Index via spread betting. All are like I said Investments and to emphasize long term. One will only make money if you buy when everybody runs for the door.!!# A Happy Diwali to you and all with a PROSPEROUS YEAR AHEAD!!!....

If the present downward trend continues for some more days, the share of silverline may be delisted from BSE. ...

Dear Vipul, First of all thank you for taking my views in the right spirit. We all wish the market to recover and to be back on track and let it happen at the earliest as you predict. Have a nice day. ...

Silverline Q1 loss is 8.5 crores. I fell that unless performance improves, this stock is not worth to invest. Another identitical stock is Teledata. Feel that Infosys, HCL Tech and NIIT Tech are much better and safer options for the time being. ...

Dear amarakbar, As per me, your kind of calculations will work out only in an investing environment where matured investors dominate. But unfortunately in India we have mere speculation happening all the time and not so knowlegable investors act according to not at all knowledgeable market gossipers who are mainly the operators. Prices of individual stocks may go up and down in cycles based on the operator game. I feel there is not going to be any significant change in the scenario for the next six months. I do not anticipate any improvement in the overall situation in the next 3 weeks time....

Dear amarakbar, I think, by now you would have analysed the outcome of E.G.M. held on 29th August,SILVERLINE. Will you please send your opinion that what Silverline is going to do in the short run. regards. ...

DEar Mr amarakbar request your views on oracle financial services(i-Flex).I AM HOLDING 500 nos . so requst you to study and give your views. thanks sanjay amdavad...