KOTAK INVESTMENTS DLF short call in News letter ( 268 close)Open 263.. We covered short around 245 ( read msg posted ) We again bought fresh at 145... ( read Msg )and now 260.. again book profits.. Huge profits.. Cheers....... KOTAK INVESTMENTS...

Dear friends, Due to the global crises Asian equity markets are hit and now we are facing acute volatility in the market. I just was reading one report on the issue.We are familier with the term IV-Implied Volatility and its usage to gage the trend.Simple measure of the level of volatility ( Standard deviation )shows that the Japanes indice Nikkie to be at 1186 in October as compared to 426 in September, almost three fold.Many of the Asian countries` volatility measures doubled compared to that of September. Credit Default Swap spread ( An indicator of how risky companies/countries are perceived to be) are reaching new peaks.The malaise has started to extend into the real economy with industrial production numbers falling in recent months. Therefore ,one will ask what next ? If we take one by one point, those countries which are export dependent will be hit hard. China is the best example. Slowdown in USA and Europe will hit China The most. There are some others reasons apart slow down, but will not touch here. GDP growth of China will be sudued for next couple of years. IMF has release GDP growth forecast for the year 2009, given hereinbelow, may have to be lowered at the end of the year. _______________________________________ Country 2007 2008 2009 _______________________________________ Australia 4.16 2.50 2.24 China 11.9 9.74 9.25 India 9.34 7.92 6.94 Japan 2.08 0.69 0.47 Korea 4.97 4.11 3.49 Malaysia 6.35 5.75 4.75 Philipines 7.19 4.40 3.80 Singapore 7.71 3.62 3.45 UK 3.03 0.99 -0.13 USA 2.02 1.57 0.06 ________________________________ We have handy 2007 GDP data of the countries and we have taken projections from IMF.Now my point is following countries may have to be lowered GDP growth percentage by IMF considering current crises of confidence. China, India, UK and USA along with some countries like Malaysia, singapore may find it difficult to match with IMF projections. Those who have studied economy know it well that Once slow down cremp in the economy, most of the measures taken by govt and central banks are fall short. We have past history to prove this. Now, if we focus to India only, India was hailed as being a paragon of good, sustainable economic growth oriented of heaven for the investors . It had an image of being sure to become economic super power along with China.Now several challenges are poping up after failure of decouppiling theory.The first alam bell that went off the double digit inflation we had since june this year which reached a peak of 12.91 % in August but since reduced slightly. Still it is well in danger zone and till first quarter of 2009 , it may not fall in a single digit. Bigest shock treatment to our economy was given by IIP data in August 2008. Industrial production grew at 1.3 % compared to 7.4 in immediate previous month.The number may well be an aberration but it reflects problem in the real economic growth.We should not forget that after the release of IIP data only, analyst cut the 2008 growth forecast to around 7.7 %. from 7.9 % Stock market have taken fall sharply . 40 % down in just one month!!!! and if we count from the peak to the recent bottom, 63.70 % fall in just 10 months. FIIS have left in droves and their net investment by in the first 24 days of Octobner was -3.3 billion USD. Exit of FIIS had a devastating effect on INR went around 50/1-USD lowest in many years.Though, it should have created blessing for exporters, no one is buyer across the globe. One more point here to be noted is that India is a net importer,falling currency will worsen the trade deficit. ---------Conti-on page -2 GDP forecast for the year 2008 and 2009 are IMF projections. ...

Kotak Investments: Bottom target: ________________________________ taken from E-copy of the economicrevolution. article from Kotak investments . page no-4. he gives next top above 30211 Once consolidation and correction is over. Time frame 7-8 years, Consolidation may last till february-2009....

Nifty Nov-fut now 2958 very near to my target. Cover short and enjoy.....................We covered 50 % @2980............... S Kotak...

Dear Friends, Please read my message dated 25-10-2008, wherein I had given Nifty low target of 2300-2347.....and then resistance level of 3117-3217 , conditionally fresh rally only on sustaining above 3217. Today Nifty crossed 3217 in opening trade. we expect profit bookings on ups today............ Flashstocks05, We have advised all to watch 3217 level for profit booking. I had also given this level in my article last week. Nifty has crossed this level but will not sustain. This level of Nifty suggest weekly profit booking . We have huge prtofits to book. At some levels every one needs to book profits and wait for re-entry.Please read my last message of Nifty projection low 2300-2347 around on 25 th October and resistance around 3117-3217. Those who folllowed our board have gain of 900 points.................... Cheersssssssssssssssss S Kotak...