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Economic crisis-Dos and don’ts ...........
Posted by :
latikav
Boarder Since : 23rd Oct 06
Posted 1135 messages to date
Dos and don’ts
• Economic crisis. market meltdown. rising interest rates. rising inflation... times are, indeed, tough. Here are 10 recommendations on what you should and shouldn`t do to keep your financial health on track.
What you should do
• Follow the news. Swinging markets and new regulatory initiatives... things are changing quickly. Each development affects different sectors differently. Follow the financial media-and Business Today`s Money section, for instance-to keep abreast of the latest developments in India Inc. and for advice on how to profit from them.
• Get your finances in order. There has never been a better time to make a budget and start paying off your debt and credit cards, personal loans, etc. If possible, transfer your loans from a bank that`s charging a higher rate of interest to one that promises a cheaper rate.
• Rethink your plans to retire. If you`re expecting to retire soon, consider holding off for a while, if possible, until things calm down. That will give you time to reassess and, if need be, modify your plans.
• Call your financial adviser. With end-of-the-year tax planning an annual ritual, now is a good time to make an appointment with your tax adviser, no matter what the economic outlook. He or she may have some advice on how to tweak your finances as you ride out the current storm.
What you shouldn`t do
• Bail out. Dumping your stocks or equity mutual funds now, when values are especially low, will guarantee that you turn paper losses into real ones. Even if there`s more downside to come, staying on course often pays off during times of economic uncertainty.
• Stop saving. Those regular contributions you`ve been making to your savings or retirement accounts are an important part of good financial discipline, and there`s no reason to stop them now. We`ve long recommended the virtue of making regular, monthly savings. Continue this habit, even if it means cutting down on other things. like the weekly family outing, or that after-office drink with friends.
• Speculate. While lower prices of shares, create opportunities, speculation can get you into big financial trouble. Avoid it.
• Take on new debt. Be careful about acquiring new debt. Economic downturns can affect job stability and investment incomes, making it difficult to determine how much debt you can handle. If you must borrow, say, to put a child through college or to buy a house, be doubly sure that you`ve examined all the options and risks.
• Stop living. Although these times demand extra caution, there`s such a thing as over-reacting. So, don`t overreact. Reflect carefully and, where necessary, adjust. But don`t stop enjoying the little things of life. You`ll only make yourself sad.
Business Today..........
(4.21)
Dear Moderator, Sorry to bother you but this message does not appear in your inbox hence I am posting it again.
Dear Moderator,
My message on the thread “ Reliance 1650” on Reliance board is missing. Till yesterday it was top rated message today it is gone! Vanished! Is it due to any technical reason?
The Big Debate....................
Market Analysis - Technical View
Posted by :
Nooresh
Boarder Since : 19th May 06
Posted 288 messages to date
The above levels are the biggest debate between all types of technical analysts be it Elliot, Classical, Wave or whatever.
Although I am mainly stock specific so prefer to go with the Classical patterns but do tend to have a look into various theories for index calculations.
Now let’s see the points of debate based on primary assumptions of technical analysis.
1) Bullish or Bearish in the long term.
2) Historical Comparisons.
3) Time Period.
4) Price Target.
5) Miscellaneous Observations
6) Observations and Conclusions.
1) Bullish or Bearish
There is hardly any technical analysis theory or analyst who would give a 6k Sensex and 2k Nifty target and consider the indices to be in a major bear trend and we may not go above 21k in the coming decade and continue to be in a range of 6k-21k as we did in 1990-2000.
Majority of the technical theories and analysts continue to maintain that Sensex is in a long term bull market and may knock new highs in the next decade or say 3-5 years.
2) Historical Comparisons.
Let’s start with bear markets in India.
Although there is no hard and fast rule about what could be termed a bear markets. I would consider any fall of 20-50 % from peak in absolute terms and spans for more then 5 months to 2-3 years.
I have still not understood why every analyst thinks it was only 2000 to 2003 was the only bear market but that could be because all have been tracking Nifty only which started in 1994.
Sensex corrected 40 % in 1986 -1988, 1991, 1992-1993. The important one would be 1986-1988 and 1992-1993 as they lasted for more then 8-13 months and can be used for the comparisons.
Although if one is looking at a structural bull market then the most important one to be considered would be the 1986-1988 bear phase. As this goes well with the multi-year breakout which happened in 2005.
Comparing current bear market phase to 1992-1993 and 2000-2003 Sensex has one concern that during the period of 1990-2003 Sensex continued to range between 2k-6k. And all through after a bull run market ended up touching the lower side range of 2k. So in such a comparison it would imply a testing of the breakout of 6k in 2005 for current index and then make a new range of 6k-21k which may last for another decade ??? !.So definitely there are questions on both sides whether to consider 1992-1993 , 2000-2003 or consider the 1986-1988 corrections.
Charts for reference:
Sensex 1986-1988 correction
Sensex 1992-1993 correction
Sensex 2000-2003 correction.
USA – Dow Jones
This is the oldest available index in the world and also the biggest economy so it makes sense to compare a highly mature market for any part of technical analysis.
Here again the structural bull runs were seen in 1930s and 1980s. So 1937-1942 and 1987 would be important ones to watch for comparison as these corrections led to the major bull rallies. I have been comparing the US economic scenario of 1980s to India of 2000s. And the pattern of multi-year breakout seems to be very similar on both cases. Have extensively included the same in our come look into the future presentation.
Also one more observation is that October is a Bear Killer month for Dow Jones. According to the Stock Traders Almanac (which is the authority on seasonal trends), October crashes took place during 1929 and 1987. October downturns also took place in 1978, 1979, 1989, and 1997. October, however, is also known as a "bear killer". Bear markets ended during October in 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, and 2002. Charts 2, 3, and 4 show October bottoms in 1987, 1998, and 2002. October also saw big gains after bad Septembers in the five years from 1999-2003. We have to consider October month importantly as US backed recession is leading to financial crisis all over the world.
for more search Nooresh on google....
A Profitable Way Out Of The Market.......
Posted by : latikav
Boarder Since : 23rd Oct 06
Posted 1135 messages to date
(3.85)
What areBuybacks & Open Offers??
The stockmarket gives shareholders opportunities to increase their wealth even during periods when volumes go down, as is the case now. These come from the promoters or prospective promoters, either by way of buyback offers or open offers.
Such activities tend to increase when share prices are down. Presently, there are 83 companies that have either announced opening dates or plans for a buyback. More than 50 companies have announced their opening dates for takeover open offers.
WHAT ARE BUYBACKS?
A company’s offer to purchase its own shares issued earlier is termed as buyback. It usually does not affect the company’s operations or its stability. Its objective is to reduce the company’s share capital as, typically, these shares are extinguished.
Types of buyback. A company buys back its shares by sending a letter of offer to shareholders. It fixes a price, generally higher than the prevailing market price. Companies can also fix a range of prices in which it is willing to buy the shares.
Companies also buy shares in the open market through brokers.
How to evaluate a buyback. In theory, a company goes for a buyback when it has surplus cash and few investment opportunities. In such a situation, companies reward their shareholders by offering them cash for the shares.
However, a developing economy like India, which has many investment opportunities, there are very few companies that can give this reason for a buyback.
Investors should be aware of any manipulation or inaccurate information that a company may give to explain why it opted for a buyback.
A buyback reduces the number of shares in the market and, thus, the earning per share increases. As a result, the price earning multiple (PE) falls and the valuations become attractive, which leads to more demand for the stock pushing prices up.
At times, the management uses this to put a gloss to their financial statements. Investors should note that prices cannot be sustained until the profitability of the company improves.
WHAT ARE OPEN OFFERS?
An open offer is a way in which the acquirer tries to take control of the target company. The acquirer makes a public announcement in the newspapers disclosing his intentions to acquire the shares of the target company.
How to evaluate an open offer? Investors have the discretion to accept or reject the open offer. The offer price can be a major criterion for deciding. If the investors feel the offer is underpriced, they may hold on to their shares. Also, if indications point towards competitive bids by other acquirers, investors can also wait for these bids, which might be more attractive than the present one.
If investors feel that the stock has the potential to perform better than the present open offer, even then they might not put up their shares for sale. Otherwise, at the right price, an open offer is a good exit opportunity, especially in a turbulent market like the present one.
Buybacks and open offers give investors a chance to exit the market and also get a handsome reward for being a shareholder. However, investors should evaluate buybacks and open offers on a case-to-case basis before taking a decision.
OutLooK...................
Reliance is ready for bouncing back
Posted by : nadhi
Boarder Since : 6th Feb 07
Posted 1900 messages to date
Dear sharad,
I find it painful to note that good boarders are quitting. I know that you will do only the proper thing. Thanks for your affection in me all along and marking a copy of your messages always. Please send me your mail ID thro PM. I want to keep in touch with a true well wisher.
Kind regards
Nadhi
Reliance is ready for bouncing back
Posted by : JAGDISH GABA
Boarder Since : 6th Oct 06
Posted 1145 messages to date
kotakinvestment,
dear sir,i happened to go through your profile n find the efforts you have put in to come to this level
But may i know,are we working for any rewards here on MMB?I feel no not at all but on the other hand we share our experiences with other boarders and get knowledge fron them to
In all this is a knowledge sharing forum n we should not bother for any psychological rewards in the shape of :message of the day: or boarder of the day"After all whats there in it?More over we write here under a nic only
Yes if we work here for some financial or business gains,then the story is different n i suppose you are not one of them
Its therefore requested to see these things from a larger interests and be magnanomous to forget all these small things and be with the board
If at all you have taken a decision thn fine and there will be hardly any one to call you back too
Moderator favouring any community or a person is not true and we dont find any of such happening so for
Please review your decision in the larger interest
Bye n take care-jagdish gaba
Hinduism : Perfect way of life.
Posted by : KotakInvestment
Boarder Since : 14th Apr 06
Posted 2434 messages to date
What people say about Hinduism ??
(1) Arthur Bashman ( Historian of Australia):
" In India , I found a race of mortals living upon the Earth, but not adhering to it,inhabitingcities,but not being fixed to them, possessing everything, but possessed by nothing.
(2)Apollonius Tyanaeus:
( Greek Traveller in 1st century CE):
'If there is one place on the face of this earth where all the dreams of living men have found a home from the very earlier days when man began the dream of exixtance, it isIndia."
(3) Romain Rolland ( french Philosopher. ( 1886-1944):
"In religion , India is the only millionaire......
The One land that all men desire to see,
and having seen once,by even a glimpse,
would not give that glimpse for all the shows
of all the rest of the globe combined."
(4) Mark wain ( american Author. 1835-1910):
" It is already becoming clear taht a chapter which had a Western beginning will have to have an Indian ending if it is not to end in the self-destruction of the human race......
At this supremely dangerous moment in history , the only way of salvation for mankind is the Indian Way."
(5)Dr.Arnold Toynbee ( British Historian-1889-1975)
Hinduism, though its heroes and history,relays the real values of life.AS George bernard Shaw confirmed:
"The Indian way of life provides the vision of the natural , real way of life.We veil ourselves with unnatural masks.On the face of India are the tender expressions which carry the mark of the Creator's hand."
These devine expressions are values of service, love, sacrifice,humility,duty,devotion,fidelity, tolerance and others that help perfect the individual.........
I am proud of being Hindu.
SK
(6)
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : lovemeall26
Boarder Since : 16th Jun 07
Posted 773 messages to date
Hello HLN,
It feels so nice to get a simple post from your end. I am always open to technical discussions on the nifty,but am against taking a stubborn stance any side on it as trends change very fast. I have learnt my lessons the hard way, hence , keep my options open on both sides.
As per charts,as of today, the right shoulder seems to have been formed at 4558 yesterday, it does not matter if it is a shade above or lower than 4539, the left shoulder. Volumes are a very important factor in this head and shoulder pattern. I will give you a full explanation of the head and shoulder pattern hereunder -
The head and shoulders pattern is generally regarded as a reversal pattern and it is most often seen in uptrends. It is also most reliable when found in an uptrend as well. Eventually, the market begins to slow down and the forces of supply and demand are generally considered in balance. Sellers come in at the highs (left shoulder) and the downside is probed (beginning neckline.) Buyers soon return to the market and ultimately push through to new highs (head.) However, the new highs are quickly turned back and the downside is tested again (continuing neckline.) Tentative buying re-emerges and the market rallies once more, but fails to take out the previous high. (This last top is considered the right shoulder.) Buying dries up and the market tests the downside yet again. Your trendline for this pattern should be drawn from the beginning neckline to the continuing neckline. (Volume has a greater importance in the head and shoulders pattern in comparison to other patterns. Volume generally follows the price higher on the left shoulder. However, the head is formed on diminished volume indicating the buyers aren\`t as aggressive as they once were. And on the last rallying attempt-the left shoulder-volume is even lighter than on the head, signaling that the buyers may have exhausted themselves.) New selling comes in and previous buyers get out. The pattern is complete when the market breaks the neckline. (Volume should increase on the breakout.)
So you see, the above explanation explains it all. Technically speaking, nifty can still go higher as Oil has broken important supports of 106 and will soon test 102 and also the NSG hangover still might not be over yet. So nifty can easily cross 4600 within a day or two. The first resistance still stands at 4578, the 100 weeks moving average which ofcourse is higher than the left shoulder. Next resistance comes straight up at 4650 which ofcourse is the head. Now after this as per charts as of today, I cannot comment where nifty will go after that as I do not believe in shooting arrows in the sky. As of now, nifty is not showing enough volumes as it moves up, showing total lack of conviction at higher levels. The smart players have understood that this may finally be just a bear market rally after all. I will suggest you not to quote that you are very sure nifty may never cross 4650 the head. I too feel it is going to be tough for nifty to cross 4650 and will be shorting heavily there with stop loss of 4700. But, imagine a scenario wherein OPEC tonight takes such a decision which is bad for the oil producing countries as a result of which nymex falls below 100 dollars per barrel or inflation falls nicely on thursday, then it will easily push the nifty past 4650 too taking it to first 4800 and 4900 too. Hence, my suggestion, please do not take anything as final for this market, any surprise can spring up anytime failing all technicals and stubborn views.
Finally, I repeat , for the head and shoulders pattern to play out fully, nifty first must fall from anywhere between here and 4650 and break the neckline at 4240, otherwise this pattern stands nullified.
regards
lovemeall26
Reliance is ready for bouncing back
Posted by : KotakInvestment
Boarder Since : 14th Apr 06
Posted 2434 messages to date
Dear Friends,ashu, loreal, nadhi, and many more,
Since last 12 months moderators have restricted my legitimate right of
AUTO POSTING without any reason
RIGHT OF ATING MESSGES
RIGHT OF MAKING MESSAGE OFFENSIVE ON MY BOARD!!!!!
AND FINLLY Tey have restricted me to up date my HOME page.
This is what ???????
Reson Is simple :
I was used o post my calls late night, which were never aproved within reasonal time of market start trading. I finally found way out and was posting my calls on my home page( You can see) so that peole can know calls in time and act upon on that.
Now finally MMB Moderators have snached this last tool from me so that I can not approach to viewers in time. This is what ?? shall I put in WORDS?????
It will look offensive to MMB Moderators.!!!!!!
This is nothing but INSULTING to any JUNIOR BOARDER.
WHAT ISTHE USE OF POSTING CALLS HERE wen They are restricted by MODERATORS ?? What is the reason ?????
They know better than all of us.
Thanks
Thanks
Thanks for the love of ou all.
The IAEA´s key findings as of the end of 2006 were:
1. There were 435 operating nuclear reactors around the world, and 29 more were under construction. The US had the most with 103 operating units. France was next with 59. Japan followed with 55, plus one more under construction, and Russia had 31 operating, and seven more under construction.
2. Of the 30 countries with nuclear power, the percentage of electricity supplied by nuclear ranged widely: from a high of 78 percent in France; to 54 percent in Belgium; 39 percent in Republic of Korea; 37 percent in Switzerland; 30 percent in Japan; 19 percent in the USA; 16 percent in Russia; 4 percent in South Africa; and 2 percent in China.
3. Present nuclear power plant expansion is centred in Asia: 15 of the 29 units under construction at the end of 2006 were in Asia. And 26 of the last 36 reactors to have been connected to the grid were in Asia. India currently gets less than 3% of its electricity from nuclear, but at the end of 2006 it had one-quarter of the nuclear construction - 7 of the world´s 29 reactors that were under construction. India´s plans are even more impressive: an 8-fold increase by 2022 to 10 percent of the electricity supply and a 75-fold increase by 2052 to reach 26 percent of the electricity supply. A 75-fold increase works out to an average of 9.4 percent/yr, about the same as average global nuclear growth from 1970 through 2004. So it´s hardly unprecedented.
4. China is experiencing huge energy growth and is trying to expand every source it can, including nuclear power. It has four reactors under construction and plans a nearly five-fold expansion by just 2020. Because China is growing so fast this would still amount to only 4 percent of total electricity.
5. Russia had 31 operating reactors, five under construction and significant expansion plans. There´s a lot of discussion in Russia of becoming a full fuel-service provider, including services like leasing fuel, reprocessing spent fuel for countries that are interested, and even leasing reactors.
6. Japan, [the only country to have experienced the hazards of uncontrolled nuclear reactions], had 55 reactors in operation, one under construction, and plans to increase nuclear power´s share of electricity from 30 percent in 2006 to more than 40 percent within the next decade.
7. South Korea connected its 20th reactor just last year, has another under construction and has broken ground to start building two more. Nuclear power already supplies 39 percent of its electricity.
8. Europe is a good example of "one size does not fit all." Altogether it had 166 reactors in operation and six under construction. But there are several nuclear prohibition countries like Austria, Italy, Denmark and Ireland. And there are nuclear phase-out countries like Germany and Belgium.
9. There are also nuclear expansion programmes in Finland, France, Bulgaria and Ukraine. Finland started construction in 2005 on Olkiluoto-3, which is the first new Western European construction since 1991. France plans to start its next plant in 2007.
SARVAM KRISHNARPANAM
Bhavani
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Ramesh Damani
Member BSE ,
(07 Oct- 16:30hrs)
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