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Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Dear sp.palo,
Green looks so good to eyes after so many days!
Let us hope we see that Green at the end of day!
Gud luk & happy investing! ...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
sp.palo
Dear BSR,
how long this greenery will remain ?
regards
shakti 
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
This is the time to separate men from boys. I mean good versus bad stocks.
Its the time to enter good stocks. Remember that all stocks will not bottom out at the same time as Sensex or Nifty.
Banks seems like they bottomed out in July. They will not go below that. Sugar may have bottomed out now. Realty may take even longer.
This is the time to enter the right stocks and be rich.
Nifty will sure go to 2800-3200 but that does not mean all the stocks will get 25% cheaper from now on.
Time to start LT investing......
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : lovemeall26
Hi pradesh,
Arre buy anything, its like buy one, get two free. I have entered sugar - like renuka and triveni apart from other sectors.
lovemeall26
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
At 50% correction from the high of 21000 may bottom out at 10500....
In reply to:
Where do you see the Nifty bottoming out?
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
its the reality one must can see all the available channels possible to extract cash, whether from quitting fund units, taking out totally cash from all bankings. its slow death from the global equities. only see world markets experience the recession aggravating further taking into a similar depression of 30s. save the pennies leftout rather again becoming party to the millions going penniless already globally with high expectation of unprecedented unemployment following soon with the thing of bubbles bursting only started in the largest economy, also seeing signs in the asia,emerging india, china which are very high risky economy`s only to see a total collapse of big banking financials of india, china other emerging markets....
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I have a stock which is currently trading in CnC category at Rs. 640/- and in the F & O at Rs. 944/- for 29-10-08 date. What does these figures mean?...
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One can understand what Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is trying to do and you don’t fault that. Things are difficult they are doing whatever they can. It is not difficult to go back on a decision which was taken less than a year back with great fanfare saying, “We want more transparency in our market therefore P-notes must go and you have to register yourself as FIIs. Then 11-months down the line to eat humble pie and come back and say it was never about transparency, it was only about flows. At that point we didn’t want flows because the Finance Minister told us that the rupee is getting completely out of whack and therefore Sebi should then press for transparency and close the P-note window.”
Now that there is no liquidity in the system now Sebi does not require transparency as much as dollars and therefore we close that door. It’s not an easy move for a regulator to take and their cover to a certain extent is blown on the intention of this P-note move to begin with but having said that if it helps the market then we don’t complain. If it brings in money then we don’t complain, we say okay what is good for the market is fine, we sacrifice principle for the sake of that quite easily.
It is good for the market? - I am not quite sure because there are a few technical things I don’t think that 40% of Assets Under Management (AUM) limit, which was there and which was the guiding principle or the operative principle works anymore because there is plenty of headroom in the system in any case. So removing that 40% cap will not get the dollars in. Also the whole Assets under Management has come down so dramatically that 40% of what your calculating has also changed quite a bit, so all of this is becoming a bit meaningless.
The only one technical point where it might actually help is that people want to shift away some P-notes from a few large investment banks to a few other large investment banks. That shift might be facilitated to a certain extent. I don’t want to mention names but a couple of global investment banks you know the names you are not exactly in the pink of health right now and there are a couple others who are a little better off. So the guys who are a bit better off might be closer to that 40% limit. But that aside, I don’t think this is big news. FIIs still continue to be on the sell side and that won’t change for a while.
-Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor,CNBC TV18 ...
In reply to:
Difficult to predict market direction
Posted by : Udayan Mukherjee
Also what will happen right now because everybody is panicking is that all countries will start cutting interest rates because regulators have only few things they can do to stem the panic; they can either throw money at the system or they can start cutting interest rates. I suspect before the week is out you will probably see all the Central Banks in the world putting their heads together and saying, “Everybody is panicking, our markets are just collapsing everyday. We have to do something to lend some kind of emotional supports so let’s all start cutting rates.” So I suspect that will happen in the US and Europe and everywhere that you can imagine perhaps in large parts of Asia as well and that in the near-term might provide a bit of a relief for a market which is oversold.
Right now there is complete panic in the medium-term, which is the next few quarters you have a very bad situation to muddle through globally in terms of basic economic conditions and there is no getting away from that whether rates come down 50-100 bps or not the damage is done. But in the near-term I think you will probably get a pullback and it could be a significant pullback as well because the damage is being extremely hard and many markets have ground down to five year lows. So you could get a pullback and I think the chances of getting a pullback at some point of this week are fairly high.
But these are difficult to time; it could happen today, tomorrow or could happen next Monday but its coming because there is too much panic visible and that doesn’t last very much long.
We were whacked out of shape yesterday:
Yes and 3,800 has gone but we have some policy action, so at least sentimentally the first signal of a possible monetary easing though I am not sure about. But that plus some emotional relief on the FII front for a market which has fallen 300 Nifty points in the last two days could be a trigger for a bit of a pullback. In any case 3,600 was one target for the traders and that has come about rather too quickly.
So is it conceivable that the market pulls back a little bit? - I think it’s possible but the flow situation is still very bad. So from 3,600 can we pull back to 3,800? - It is conceivable, likely not impossible. Could we go to slightly higher levels? – That is also not implausible but 4,000 plus is very difficult for the moment. We could get a 5-7 to 8 % kind of a bounce depending on how strong the global action is and over a period of time you will go back and retest 3,600 and the way things are I won’t be surprised if it breaks and we go and test a new low. But we have already come off quite a bit and formed a new low and therefore one could expect a bit of a trading bounce but trading bounce is all that there is.
Is it an irony of the times that this Participatory-note (P-note) opening up has actually got people sulking rather than cheering?
It is the first reaction, it is a bear market, so when you open up capacities and say will people come and short right now and that’s the first reaction that you open up the window now at this kind of a time, then people will come and hammer your market because that’s where they see the market going - down. So its possible that there could be some shorting and fresh shorting is probably easier now on futures because of the overseas- derivative instruments (ODI) rules but that aside if the purpose of this move is to attract more capital into this country, I doubt that will happen right now because the problem is not regulatory ease of capital flowing in, the problem is there is no money in the world to put into any emerging market or any asset class indeed. So when there is no money, what’s the point of opening the door?
-Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor,CNBC TV18
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Also what will happen right now because everybody is panicking is that all countries will start cutting interest rates because regulators have only few things they can do to stem the panic; they can either throw money at the system or they can start cutting interest rates. I suspect before the week is out you will probably see all the Central Banks in the world putting their heads together and saying, “Everybody is panicking, our markets are just collapsing everyday. We have to do something to lend some kind of emotional supports so let’s all start cutting rates.” So I suspect that will happen in the US and Europe and everywhere that you can imagine perhaps in large parts of Asia as well and that in the near-term might provide a bit of a relief for a market which is oversold.
Right now there is complete panic in the medium-term, which is the next few quarters you have a very bad situation to muddle through globally in terms of basic economic conditions and there is no getting away from that whether rates come down 50-100 bps or not the damage is done. But in the near-term I think you will probably get a pullback and it could be a significant pullback as well because the damage is being extremely hard and many markets have ground down to five year lows. So you could get a pullback and I think the chances of getting a pullback at some point of this week are fairly high.
But these are difficult to time; it could happen today, tomorrow or could happen next Monday but its coming because there is too much panic visible and that doesn’t last very much long.
We were whacked out of shape yesterday:
Yes and 3,800 has gone but we have some policy action, so at least sentimentally the first signal of a possible monetary easing though I am not sure about. But that plus some emotional relief on the FII front for a market which has fallen 300 Nifty points in the last two days could be a trigger for a bit of a pullback. In any case 3,600 was one target for the traders and that has come about rather too quickly.
So is it conceivable that the market pulls back a little bit? - I think it’s possible but the flow situation is still very bad. So from 3,600 can we pull back to 3,800? - It is conceivable, likely not impossible. Could we go to slightly higher levels? – That is also not implausible but 4,000 plus is very difficult for the moment. We could get a 5-7 to 8 % kind of a bounce depending on how strong the global action is and over a period of time you will go back and retest 3,600 and the way things are I won’t be surprised if it breaks and we go and test a new low. But we have already come off quite a bit and formed a new low and therefore one could expect a bit of a trading bounce but trading bounce is all that there is.
Is it an irony of the times that this Participatory-note (P-note) opening up has actually got people sulking rather than cheering?
It is the first reaction, it is a bear market, so when you open up capacities and say will people come and short right now and that’s the first reaction that you open up the window now at this kind of a time, then people will come and hammer your market because that’s where they see the market going - down. So its possible that there could be some shorting and fresh shorting is probably easier now on futures because of the overseas- derivative instruments (ODI) rules but that aside if the purpose of this move is to attract more capital into this country, I doubt that will happen right now because the problem is not regulatory ease of capital flowing in, the problem is there is no money in the world to put into any emerging market or any asset class indeed. So when there is no money, what’s the point of opening the door?
-Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor,CNBC TV18 ...
In reply to:
Difficult to predict market direction
Posted by : Udayan Mukherjee
The world keeps changing every night and we come back with a completely fresh perspective - so much has changed since the markets closed last evening or yesterday afternoon. The Participatory-note (P-note) regulations have changed; the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has surprisingly cut cash reserve ratio (CRR), global markets continue to tumble though Asia is weathering it a little bit better this morning. So global turmoil, lots of policy changes - it will all go into the melting pot today, who knows what will win; policy action or global turmoil.
On global markets:
These are difficult times, unprecedented times in the global markets and therefore the kind of action that we are seeing is also quite unprecedented. Things are very fluid at this point in time. You do not know what the market will react to this morning, it could easily snap back because of the concerted regulatory action, which is happening or it could continue to drift down along with global markets. So it is a tough call.
We are seeing history unfold in front of our eyes. This is something that we do not see in a decade or a couple of decades, the kind of action that we are seeing in global markets and the way regulators across the world are forced to respond to it to at least keep the patient alive. There is absolutely history unfolding and therefore the less you take in terms of big directional calls in the market, the better because we have no clue of where the situation might land us in finally. It is tough times and absolutely historic times for financial markets around us.
For many markets, it is almost like the hemorrhaging right now?
It is and I suspect that will continue because this is not about small interest rate change and it is not about throwing a little bit money at the system or anything like that. We are probably hurtling towards the global recession not just the US recession at this point in time and the kind of economic distress, which might unfold over the next few quarters, is making everybody very nervous and justifiably so.
So right now you don’t want to get into that, okay inflation at 11.99 so we are fine, Cash reserve Ratio (CRR) down more 50-bps, so we are fine or to get extremely bearish between points and say now the market will go to 8,000 Sensex and the Dow will plunge to 5,000. None of us know what is going to happen. Could any of us have predicted the events that have unfolded in the last 4-5 weeks? The biggest analyst in the world couldn’t have seen of what is going to happen.
We are in unprecedented times and none of us know how things will shape up over the next few weeks and months. It is best to say I don’t understand what is going on; it’s beyond my comprehension completely. I don’t want to stick money into assets and all right now, if I could I would dig it under the ground and sit on it since I can’t do that I just need to be in cash at this point and not be brave trying to fool myself by thinking that I am the best analyst in the world who knows exactly how this thing will pan out. When in doubt just keep your money under the mattress that is always worked in history and that is going to work right now.
Asian Indices:
Asia is okay this morning it is not such a bad picture the Nikkei is down about 2%, Straits Times is actually up 1.5%, China is down 1.5%, so mixed bag but no great sell-off as you have seen across the US market things are little bit calmer out here though they started negatively, the most Asian markets seem to have come-off the morning’s lows.
It’s almost like a vortex situation everyday?
It is and the way things are now capitulating in the West is quite alarming because yesterday Europe was down 8-9% apiece. I do not remember in my memory when European markets fell 8-9% a day, Russia was down 19%. These are indices for large markets which are falling 18-19% a day; it’s not a single midcap stock. So it’s very scary, but the pace at which these markets are falling right now lead you to believe that for the near-term you are probably headed to another intermediate bottom because things do not fall 20% a day for very long. So its getting completely overdone right now, you are seeing the absolute peak of panic, it could last for a day or two sure or maybe in the next 48 hours you will probably see a spike back in the global markets. I know not the best morning to suggest that but it inevitably happens when market falls 7-8% a day.
-Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor,CNBC TV18
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Rumours in the market that Balasore is planning a Bonus or buyback of shares....
Can take a risk fo good gains......
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In a bid to inject liquidity in the cash-starved market, the Federal Reserve offered to provide USD 900 billion in cash loans to the squeezed banks. The Fed tried to ease Wall Street’s pain by saying that the 28-day and 84-day cash loans being made available to banks will be boosted to USD 150 billion apiece, effective Monday....
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Dont expect markets to zoom around one will get chances of going short at higher levels
-stox andmore ...
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We can say with CRR cut, it is positive sign as far as growth targets of the year are concerned. With CRR cut, Auto, Banks, Realty sectors would have major impact & the sectors have bottomed out actually to their lowest levels of lifetime.
However, CRR cut of 50 BPS shouldnt be taken as free rate cut cycles. I think inflation is still near 11.99%. So I dont expect many CRR cuts in short span. I think rates unchanged could also remain for some months. rate cut would not have positive impacts on commodities for next 6-9 months. Seeing good pressure remain on commodity on account of chinese import demand cut on crude, metals, precious metals, also food which would come in great force coming months. ...
In reply to:
Mkts rebound sharply on CRR cut; Sensex back above 12K
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Markets have bounced back sharply and have managed to recover half of yesterday's loss. Benchmark indices have taken Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) cut positively, where RBI has cut CRR by 50 bps to 8.5% in late evening yesterday.
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Markets have bounced back sharply and have managed to recover half of yesterday's loss. Benchmark indices have taken Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) cut positively, where RBI has cut CRR by 50 bps to 8.5% in late evening yesterday....
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Now that nifty has hit 3602 and sensex touched 11800 ,we should start a new bearish thread headed``Will nifty hit 3300 and sensex touch 10500?``
This is what seems logical in current situation....
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Large order powers Thermax , it has bagged an order worth Rs 450 crore for setting up a 60 megawatt captive power plant on turnkey basis in Andhra Pradesh.
The company manufactures and distributes industrial equipment. The group operates in two segments, energy and environment.
...
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Buy Kotak bank tgt 515...
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Udayan's Market Outlook
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Difficult to predict market direction | |
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| Udayan Mukherjee, Stocks Editor, TV18 | ||
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