Market Outlook - Short Term

Gear up for tough morning today

Posted by : Udayan Mukherjee

Does it help any that there might be a relook at the P-Note situation?

I doubt it very much. The problem right now is not ease of operation or ease of entry into a particular market. The problem is there is no money going for emerging markets. So you cannot do this now and say, “We will make it a bit easier in terms of getting into India and therefore you can come in.” FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investor) are not selling because it’s difficult to enter India because they do not want to be in whatever they consider as risky assets and therefore Participatory Notes will not make an iota of different sets at this point in time.

Also it may send out a bit of a confusing signal on what we are trying to do, because when this policy actually came in the reason which was put up by the regulator was that because we need more transparency in this market and therefore we need to throw out PNs and get FIIs registered directly.

Now if they go back on that and relax it then it would be showing their hand completely that this was nothing but to regulate the flow of money for the rupee. You cannot go about tweaking entry norms of capital into the country that too in market like equities because of what you view on the rupee is. I think it will be shown as a bad regulatory gesture if we were to change the norms now. Not only will it not bring fresh money into this country at this point, I think it will also confuse people about how our regulators are thinking about policy.

We might be buckled under little bit for the Nifty this morning?

We will for sure, 100-points will go quite effortlessly this morning on the Nifty but after that what, traders have got used to buying the breakdowns below 3,800 and then playing for a little bit of bounce back. These bounce backs have become more and more modest over the last few days but they have been happening, so the markets have not been breaking 3,800 on a closing basis quite decisively.

So we could have a slip down this morning may be we get a little bit of a bounce back from there and who knows may be there will be another gulf or wave of selling, which will engulf this pull back again. I think the bears will try and break 3,800 on a closing basis today because they have got a lot of support from global markets, so they may let a pullback happen early in the day after a weak start but in the second half they might come and try and hammer down the market a little bit more to just break that psychological barrier down.

The way this is going for a fifth time and approach at these levels, I doubt whether this level will hold out, it may hold out for a day or two or a week more but it doesn’t appear that this will be a firm bottom, which will hold out for this market, given how things are evolving around us.

-Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor,CNBC TV18

At what Nifty level will you invest fresh money?

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WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : shakal140

Yes, both targets achieved...close the thread
atleast now, pray the markets go up!!

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

Have i ever made money going short at the right time? Never...see how much money one could have made shorting suzlon.. why my fate always fools me from making huge profits i dont know.. its always given me peanuts.

Sensex may hit 10500 levels: Ramesh Damani

Posted by : Amar Harolikar

70% chance of a 12K breach.

If 12K breached, then another 70% chance of a sub 10K Sensex levels.

Slowdown of global and Indian economy remains the key driver.

On the upside , my estimates suggest that Sensex likely to go up to 40K (min 25K) by Sept 2013 and 80K (min 45K) by 2016

In a Nutshell

At best we are looking at a global slowdown and a severe impact to the financial systems of countries – impact varying from country to country

At worst we are looking at a Global recession accompanied with a complete meltdown of major financial systems across the globe

Either ways, the worst is far from over for India and the World ; US economy will be the worst impacted.

Key Factors : Global economic landscape

US : already in a recession and it is likely to continue for another few quarters

Bailout Plan : poorly designed – wont work- at best a confidence building measure even if it gets passed later

US Financial system : high risk of a complete meltdown
Europe / Japan / China : varying degrees of slowdown – slide continues


Key Factors : Indian Landscape

GDP Growth : 5% or lower levels over next two years
Slowdown across all sectors

Factor price correction as the cycle progresses : salaries , land prices, interest rates will come down as the economy recalibirates

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

Have i ever made money going short at the right time? Never...see how much money one could have made shorting suzlon.. why my fate always fools me from making huge profits i dont know.. its always given me peanuts.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : sanjay38000

yes..let us reach 1800 on nifty first...

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : sanjay38000

yes..let us reach 1800 on nifty first...

At what Nifty level will you invest fresh money?

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SENSEX to rally by 2400 pts in 7 days

Posted by : Kalidas

for wbuffet001

I do not want to dispute you. You are paying too much attention on the write up of that Peter Heyward and the figures churned out by him. What is the source of his information. Has he quoted it?

I have already conducted research from the figures of BIS (Bank of INternational Settlement), US treasury, United Nations and IMF. I normally rely on figures that are authenticated by the reliable source.

UAE includes Abu Dhabi, so their funds is over US$ 1.375 trillions which is impossible. Their oil production is very low, and even if you count it for over 1 years, they come no where. Saudi, the major producer, produced 10 Mln barrels per day (mbpd). Even if you take average price of $ 80 for over one year (we are counting average), the monthly earning comes to $24 billions and for entire one year it comes to less than $300 billions. Other emirate countries produce just a fraction of what Saudi does, so their amount of $ 1.3 trillions sound debatable.



Further, China does not have official sovereign funds, their Forex reserve is over $ 1.8 trillions now. The countries like Saudi do not even figure amongs top 20 Forex holders in the world, that is a mystery. Russia has official Forex reserve over $500 billions of dollars and they too do not have Sovereign Funds ( I hope you are not mixing up Sovereign Funds with Forex reserve).

Here are the first top 14 nations holding FOREX reserve (Source IMF)The table may not be reproduced accurately, because this is text only forum

Country/Monetary Authority "FOREX Reserves
(millions of USD)" Figures as of
World (sum of all countries) $7,631,724 --
" People`s Republic of China... $1,808,828 Jun-08
Japan ........................$1,002,000 Jun-08
Russia.........................$ 574,300 Jul-08
" Eurozone .....................$ 563,426 Mar-08
India..........................$ 308,397 Jul-08
Republic of China (Taiwan).....$ 291,400 Jun-08
South Korea....................$ 258,200 May-08
Brazil........................ $ 200,231 Jun-08
Singapore......................$ 175,800 May-08
Hong Kong..................... $ 159,000 May-08
Germany....................... $ 143,942 Apr-08
Algeria........................$ 126,905 Mar-08
Malaysia.......................$ 124,600 Jun-08
France........................ $ 125,311 Feb-08

I do not mind even if some one quotes my article on MMB as itf it is their own. I just write for the benefit of MMB members. Do not forget that US is having prosperity of nearly 200 years. Their economy alone is worth $13 trillions. Americans do have money (their government may not have) just as Indians inspite of being poor, must behaving 30,000 tons of Gold (India imports about 800 tons of Gold every year and some portion may have been exported but very small)

Kalidas, Hong Kong
4-10-2008

At what Nifty level will you invest fresh money?

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See Nifty touching 5K by Oct end: Pranav Sec

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Rajesh Jain of Pranav Securities said he would be surprised if 5,000 is not achieved by October end. "I am fairly positive on markets. I don’t believe there is case yet for a complete breakdown and would continue to recommend that good businesses be picked up on sharp declines."

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : pkk07

What is the remaining portion? Nifty at 7000? LOL

That is not coming for the next three years __at least__.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Oops Dear sp.palo,

If you have HIGH bandwidth connection, then watch that ONLINE!

Else use TORRENTS or some other software technologies to download for FREE from various websites! :)

Do watch that movie! That is a lot better than Saas Bahu and Sensex! :)

Gud luk & happy investing! :)