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Reliance Industries
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by :
marketmanTracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear bhus, everything is ok in your message.... but market is not sparing any counter at the moment.... this is one of the very few counters that fiis are still sitting on huge prfits.... to meet commitments at their home,fiis may continue to be selling this scrip for realisation of cash.... pl note that in counter like reliance,money can be realised very easily.......
In reply to:
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by :
bhusbhac
Dear marketman - Reliance facts and figures for the last 5 quarters with EPS every quarter with turnover in brackets.
23.41 (29,453)Q1 2007-08
27.53 (33,402)Q2 2007-08
55.66 (35,880)Q3 2007-08
26.91 (38,697)Q4 2007-08 = Rs 133.51
28.27 (43,050)Q1 2008-09
Now assuming that the advance tax YOY has gone upo by 5% indicates that the earning per share for the next quarter will be close to Rs 30.00 per share. So cannot see the EPS YOY for 2008-09 to be less than Rs 120/- per share. So your assumptions appear to be out by at least 20% since you are assuming a LOSS of over 30% for Reliance!
Also the turnover has gone up to an impressive 43,000 crores.
Also predictions witnessed on this board of Reliance at 1800 then 1650 then 1500 and then 1000 based on DELIVERED PE of 10 (ie Rs 100 EPS x 10) are quite baseless and based on GREAT PESSIMISM. The problem is that when experts and experienced boarders on this MMB make statements without relying on fundamentals can drag down the markets and then the pessimism could become reality. One can see the way the ineterviews on CNBC-TV18 can drag the market down on news based reactions. This is since bringing the markets down will enable for the perople in the KNOW to buy cheaply at a time of their choosing. Due to FIIs exitting it is easy to play on sentiments of the Indian investors as if something is horribly wrong with our fundamentals.
One fine day when the voices become positive the retail investors out there are not going to get a chance since the market will shoot up by 10% - 15% or even 20% when these guys are going to tell you to buy and then after the RETAIL investors have boutght at this level they will call it a RELIEF rally in a BEAR market and the market will tumble again to the extent of bad news global as well as domestic and or both are overplayed!
Dear marketman I sincerely request you to explain why you think the EPS will be only Rs 100 (DELIVERED) and even if so why it cannot be at least 135 going forward in 2008-09. My WORST case scenario is that the EPS will remain at Rs 133 provided the gas production gets further delayed and the next year the stock should cover MINIMUM Rs 180 to a max of Rs 250 due to oil and gas production. In growth terms the stock must rise phenomenally!
That is why I keep saying that the pessimism ingrained in individual Indians clearly show lack of courage, entrepreuship and leadership. On ground zero I dont see much of slowdown as much as the market is reacting. If you are in business assess your OWN business to come to an educated conclusion. Example the REAL estate prices are in reality at the most stagnant only large projects where heavy capital has been borrowed by major companies appear to be in problems which now appear to be short term. Finance Ministry first announced that increase in interest rates going forward is ruled out, then thay have reduced the CRR Rate. Seeing that the commodity markets are crashing all over RBI may soon take a bold step in cutting interest rates drastically as a show of leadeship which I keep talking about.
All markets have been peculiar. Oil crashed from 147 to 87 in relatively less time than our markets crashed 44%. Same is with other commodities. Now the US$ vs INR is high due to FIIs exitting our markets but once this stops Rupee will start appreciating and FII inflows are bound to restart.
We would all have been inconvenienced by 9 to 12 months and for that small inconvenience we are taking out vengeance on ourselves by selling stocks at such cheap prices! Let the FIIs exit at a loss why should we.
If we have confidence and faith in our own markets so will the FIIs and they will be back for sure once they stabilise and now that almost all the bad news imaginable is out in the open we all can take appropriate calls.
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : bhusbhacTracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear marketman - Reliance facts and figures for the last 5 quarters with EPS every quarter with turnover in brackets.
23.41 (29,453)Q1 2007-08
27.53 (33,402)Q2 2007-08
55.66 (35,880)Q3 2007-08
26.91 (38,697)Q4 2007-08 = Rs 133.51
28.27 (43,050)Q1 2008-09
Now assuming that the advance tax YOY has gone upo by 5% indicates that the earning per share for the next quarter will be close to Rs 30.00 per share. So cannot see the EPS YOY for 2008-09 to be less than Rs 120/- per share. So your assumptions appear to be out by at least 20% since you are assuming a LOSS of over 30% for Reliance!
Also the turnover has gone up to an impressive 43,000 crores.
Also predictions witnessed on this board of Reliance at 1800 then 1650 then 1500 and then 1000 based on DELIVERED PE of 10 (ie Rs 100 EPS x 10) are quite baseless and based on GREAT PESSIMISM. The problem is that when experts and experienced boarders on this MMB make statements without relying on fundamentals can drag down the markets and then the pessimism could become reality. One can see the way the ineterviews on CNBC-TV18 can drag the market down on news based reactions. This is since bringing the markets down will enable for the perople in the KNOW to buy cheaply at a time of their choosing. Due to FIIs exitting it is easy to play on sentiments of the Indian investors as if something is horribly wrong with our fundamentals.
One fine day when the voices become positive the retail investors out there are not going to get a chance since the market will shoot up by 10% - 15% or even 20% when these guys are going to tell you to buy and then after the RETAIL investors have boutght at this level they will call it a RELIEF rally in a BEAR market and the market will tumble again to the extent of bad news global as well as domestic and or both are overplayed!
Dear marketman I sincerely request you to explain why you think the EPS will be only Rs 100 (DELIVERED) and even if so why it cannot be at least 135 going forward in 2008-09. My WORST case scenario is that the EPS will remain at Rs 133 provided the gas production gets further delayed and the next year the stock should cover MINIMUM Rs 180 to a max of Rs 250 due to oil and gas production. In growth terms the stock must rise phenomenally!
That is why I keep saying that the pessimism ingrained in individual Indians clearly show lack of courage, entrepreuship and leadership. On ground zero I dont see much of slowdown as much as the market is reacting. If you are in business assess your OWN business to come to an educated conclusion. Example the REAL estate prices are in reality at the most stagnant only large projects where heavy capital has been borrowed by major companies appear to be in problems which now appear to be short term. Finance Ministry first announced that increase in interest rates going forward is ruled out, then thay have reduced the CRR Rate. Seeing that the commodity markets are crashing all over RBI may soon take a bold step in cutting interest rates drastically as a show of leadeship which I keep talking about.
All markets have been peculiar. Oil crashed from 147 to 87 in relatively less time than our markets crashed 44%. Same is with other commodities. Now the US$ vs INR is high due to FIIs exitting our markets but once this stops Rupee will start appreciating and FII inflows are bound to restart.
We would all have been inconvenienced by 9 to 12 months and for that small inconvenience we are taking out vengeance on ourselves by selling stocks at such cheap prices! Let the FIIs exit at a loss why should we.
If we have confidence and faith in our own markets so will the FIIs and they will be back for sure once they stabilise and now that almost all the bad news imaginable is out in the open we all can take appropriate calls.
...
In reply to:
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : marketman
Kg basin gas is positive for the stock in the long run.... it can be bought for investment at around 10 pe multiple.... with the expected eps of 100 for this fiscal and may not have negative growth i profits for the next fiscal,the scrip can be bought at around 10 pe multiple....
So,this pvt sector gas major may not fal below 1000 even if fiis completely exit from the counter....
RIL story
Posted by : investor11Tracked by: 0 Boarder
RIL is sound and robust company,but we must remeber one this before split it was trading at 350 a few years before after having unlocked various buissnesses between two brother,RNRL RPL and INfra it has moved almost 8 times and combined valuation around 15 times so still downside is not unexpected,though there buissness has also grwn up but not in praportion to yhe valuation....
Down side limited - Start LT investment.
Posted by :
BoyplungerTracked by: 0 Boarder
Down side looks limited now.
Reliance Low 1509
Nifty Low 3329
Time to start shopping....
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : yagneswarTracked by: 0 Boarder
Rpl is shortly to commence operations. RPL is a subsidiary to RIL doing business where the management is different Funding for RPL infused by RIL, Chevron and Public to that extent only its a burden. Contribution is only a capex which may be merged to RIL to RIL`S advantage at a later stage when RPL commence operations burden will naturally come down RIL is also doing something like Godavari basin operations, Retail venture etc which will improve PE faster....
In reply to:
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : marketman
In bear markets,these types of just stories do not work.... rpl is a big burden to ril.... it is better if they merge it immediately to the ril....
Reliance new resistance level=1600....
Posted by :
MilindKTracked by: 0 Boarder
Well in my opinion, it can come down to Rs.1200 due to global crises and FIIs taking out their money. But definitely not due to the bad business of Reliance or the reasons that you have given.n most of the new projects the model was novel. Reliance had ties up with vendors/ partners for investment. e.g. in one of my friend`s Reliance petrol outlet, all invenstment was done by him and not reliance. Reliance simply stopped the non-proit business. Thus a few partners may have been hit temporarily but a large section of investors are protected. In case of SEZ, if one SEZ is closed (and I support the farmers and environmentalists on this); another two may open. For every sustainable/ attractive business proposals there are govts. laying red carpets for the industries as we saw in case of nano. As in case of retail, it is a long term story. They have just started. In the long run, and in the backdrop of the financial crisis, instead of FDA or tie up we are more likely to see Reliance taking over a global retail giant. So forget retail failure or anything. While Anil D Ambani is producing hollywood movies, Mukesh opening Reliance marts/ Reliance fresh stores by the side of Wall Marts in the USA won`t be a laughable idea anymore.
So Reliance is not in any big crisis, in fact the global financial crises are going to open many oppportunities to Indian companies.
But we can not predict the short term share prices. That will be stupid. In fact for every major fall we should but more for a long long term...( in my case lifetime)....
In reply to:
Reliance new resistance level=1600....
Posted by : gdd
1200 IS THE NEXT LEVEL FOR THIS STOCK = in next 16 weeks at the most
Most projects are faltering, brother are fighting, SEZ ????, retail boomrangs, so where to hide?
Sell even now- the company is doomed becuase of pettyness of the promoter.
Reliance would be rangebound .........
Posted by : harishkrsharmaTracked by: 0 Boarder
RIL would consolidate for quite sometime and would not go into 3 figures. good buy below 1450 for long term.
Gas & oil production will give boost in the next couple of months....
Tomorrow`s PROJECTIONS for this STOCK
Posted by : DUstocksTracked by: 0 Boarder
At the current Speed Of Trend (SOT), RELIANCE will become OVERSOLD on 10th October, 2008 at Rs. 1591.02.
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS for TOMORROW, Friday, 10th October, 2008 :
R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3
1863.66 1764.78 1706.66 1607.78 1549.66 1450.78 1392.66
NIFTY SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS for TOMORROW, Friday, 10th October, 2008 :
R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3
3910.50 3757.45 3635.55 3482.50 3360.60 3207.55 3085.65
Please don`t interpret SOT figures in ABSOLUTE terms for setting up your trades, use them only for general directional guidance - all at your risk & responsibility of course. If you do not understand what SOT projections are all about, just ignore this post, rather than setting up your trade upon something you know nothing about.
...
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : marketmanTracked by: 0 Boarder
In bear markets,these types of just stories do not work.... rpl is a big burden to ril.... it is better if they merge it immediately to the ril.......
In reply to:
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : yagneswar
with Rpl storey round the corner RIL is a safe pet
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : yagneswarTracked by: 0 Boarder
with Rpl storey round the corner RIL is a safe pet...
In reply to:
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : marketman
Kg basin gas is positive for the stock in the long run.... it can be bought for investment at around 10 pe multiple.... with the expected eps of 100 for this fiscal and may not have negative growth i profits for the next fiscal,the scrip can be bought at around 10 pe multiple....
So,this pvt sector gas major may not fal below 1000 even if fiis completely exit from the counter....
reliance industries downside
Posted by : bhavesh ozaTracked by: 0 Boarder
reliance industries market heavy weighted stock. reliance promotor app. 6% share sell. between global market effect reliance down side. reliance down targate 1300/1400....
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : marketmanTracked by: 0 Boarder
Kg basin gas is positive for the stock in the long run.... it can be bought for investment at around 10 pe multiple.... with the expected eps of 100 for this fiscal and may not have negative growth i profits for the next fiscal,the scrip can be bought at around 10 pe multiple....
So,this pvt sector gas major may not fal below 1000 even if fiis completely exit from the counter.......
Reliance 1650
Posted by : BoyplungerTracked by: 5 Boarders
Congratulations fmcgbites. Keep up the good work...
In reply to:
Reliance 1650
Posted by : fmcgbites
Dear Boyplunger, hurting was seen in ril not in you and me, my first target of 1500 was done with ease, i am out from reliance,be back when take new position in ril.its over to you.
Reliance 1650
Posted by : fmcgbitesTracked by: 5 Boarders
Dear Boyplunger, hurting was seen in ril not in you and me, my first target of 1500 was done with ease, i am out from reliance,be back when take new position in ril.its over to you....
In reply to:
Reliance 1650
Posted by : Boyplunger
Dear fmcgbites, who wants to save reliance? I know what is hurting you.
Nifty can rally to 4400 in the short term.
Posted by : panasonicTracked by: 0 Boarder
Ready to inject more cash into mkts:FM NEW DELHI: The government is ready to pump more cash into jittery financial markets, the finance minister said on Wednesday, after stocks slumped to a two-year trough and the rupee fell to its lowest in more than six years.
"If need be, we will take further measures to infuse liquidity in the market," Palaniappan Chidambaram told reporters, referring to measures taken this week to ease cash flows.
Panic gripped the stock and foreign exchange markets on Wednesday as a global financial turmoil intensified worries of a recession and sent stocks reeling worldwide.
The BSE Sensex fell more than 8% at one stage to its lowest in two years, but recouped partly to be down 3.87% at 1505 hrs.
Foreign funds have pulled out a net $9.9 billion from Indian shares this year, after ploughing in a record $17.4 billion in 2007.
"I am hopeful investors will start coming to the market," Chidambaram said.
On Monday, the Reserve Bank of India announced a surprise half a percentage point cut in the proportion of deposits that banks must keep with the central bank. The reduction, which is expected to release 200 billion rupees ($4.1 billion) into the banking system, was intended to alleviate pressures on local markets due to the global financial crisis, the central bank said.
The government eased norms for foreign borrowings by companies, while the capital market regulator relaxed rules for indirect investments by foreign institutions in stocks.
...
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