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Economy
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A massive figure of Rs 29,000 Cr has been FII's outflow in last 8 months. Before the end game played by FII's , their inflow has been at more than INR/USD at 44. So they pumped more money to bring Rs below 40, so that their long term investment can take more $ on behalf of stronger Rs. So it was all BUMP and RUN case and now Rs is back to 44 level.
Trailing 24 months FII's money was at Rs 115,845 Cr at end of Oct 2007, now it is at less than half at Rs 55,893 Cr. Not a confidence boosting figure for investors....
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The long oil/short dollar bet may be off the table for now as energy prices ease and the US currency rises, but inflation and inherent risks in commodities supply could bring this popular trade back.
For over a year, one of the main themes in currency and commodity markets has been to short -- or sell -- the dollar as US economic health looked suspect, and go long -- or buy -- oil as an insurance against inflation and uncertainties in raw materials supply.
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Even as analysts talk about India continuing to be the second-fastest-growing economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has sought to inject some caution. The central bank has said the resilience of India and other emerging markets cannot be guaranteed and has warned about moderation in growth. In its annual report for 2007-08, the central bank also pointed out that there’s uncertainty on how long the divergence between growth of advanced and emerging economies will continue.
The annual report said outlook on capital flows to the emerging markets remains uncertain. On one hand, a massive injection of liquidity by central banks of developed economies has lead to large capital inflows to emerging markets. On the other hand, a change in global sentiments or monetary policy actions. “While emerging markets have remained resilient so far, there is uncertainty as to how long and to what extent the divergence of growth performance between advanced economies and emerging economy will persist in the future,” said the report.
The central bank has also pointed out that the global slowdown could have its impact on services sector since Indian BPO and IT-enabled services are mainly dependent on external market conditions. On one hand, cost-cutting measures in developed countries might increase outsourcing to India but on the other hand, a reduction in IT spending in these economies might work against BPO and IT-enabled services.
“As the global economy slows down, companies largely from developed economies, in their quest for reducing cost, might outsource a part of their operations to cheaper and efficient markets as India... As global slowdown has hit the financial services industry the most, outsourcing activities to India may decline as the financial services companies reduce their geographical operations,” said RBI in its report.
The central bank has said although the inflation risk continues, given that services constitute the predominant share of GDP, the adverse impact of fuel price pass through on the GDP may be somewhat lower, relative to other emerging markets. Unlike the global economy, which is expected to slowdown significantly, the Indian economy is expected to see slight moderation in growth.
Monetary policy may be tightened to modulate demand due to increasing global concerns on account of inflation and inflationary expectations. But conducting monetary policy is getting complicated by global developments and domestic demand pressures. The central bank has also highlighted the importance of fiscal policy in pushing the demand in the economy. Fiscal concessions in the form of higher tax exemption limits and adjustment of slabs may enhance disposable limits and adjustment of tax slab could enhance spending power.
This may have a positive impact on consumption demand, it said. -ET
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The economic growth moderated to 7.9 per cent in the first quarter of current fiscal, against 9.2 per cent a year ago as rising borrowing costs impacted manufacturing and some other sectors.
However, moderation in the GDP growth was expected as RBI hardened interest rates to control double-digit inflation. If the first quarter GDP growth continues in the remaining months of this fiscal, the economy would expand at the rate more or less proj ected by the Finance Minister Mr P Chidambaram as he projected the economy to grow by close to 8 per cent, compared to 9 per cent in the previous fiscal.
Manufacturing growth almost halved to 5.6 per cent, against 10.9 per cent as rising interest rates impacted their expansion. Even though agriculture grew by lower rate of three per cent, it is quite considerable on the high base of 4.4 per cent.
The other sectors which witnessed considerable decline in growth rate are electricity, gas and water supply, which expanded at the rate of 2.6 per cent against 7.9 per cent. In the services sector, trade, hotels, transport and communication grew by 11.2 per cent, against 13.1 per cent. While, financing, insurance, real estate and business services expanded by 9.3 per cent, against 12.6 per cent.
However, community, social and personal services grew by higher rate of 8.4 per cent, against 5.2 per cent. Construction activities also expanded at higher rate of 11.4 per cent, as compared to 7.7 per cent, while mining and quarrying grew by 4.8 per ce nt, against 1.7 per cent. In absolute terms, India\'s GDP stood at Rs 7,82,357 crore in the first quarter of this fiscal, against 7,24,949 crore in the corresponding period of 2007-08. - PTI
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what is gdp growth and what effect is on share market it is going up and down...
In reply to:
GDP down to 7.9%: Will RBI still hike rates?
Posted by :
MMB Messenger
Q1 FY09 GDP at 7.9% versus 9.2% (YoY). Ila Patnaik, Senior Fellow, NIPFP had expected growth to slowdown a bit. Rajiv Anand of IDFC Mutual Fund had estimated the Q1 FY09 GDP number at 8.50%-8.70% and had said that anything below 8% is a disappointment. Atsi Sheth of Reliance Capital feels the GDP at 7.9% will disappoint the street 
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IKF tech has target of 25 Rs. Within 2 months. Right now its trading at 7 Rs....
In reply to:
GDP down to 7.9%: Will RBI still hike rates?
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Q1 FY09 GDP at 7.9% versus 9.2% (YoY). Ila Patnaik, Senior Fellow, NIPFP had expected growth to slowdown a bit. Rajiv Anand of IDFC Mutual Fund had estimated the Q1 FY09 GDP number at 8.50%-8.70% and had said that anything below 8% is a disappointment. Atsi Sheth of Reliance Capital feels the GDP at 7.9% will disappoint the street
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Q1 FY09 GDP at 7.9% versus 9.2% (YoY). Ila Patnaik, Senior Fellow, NIPFP had expected growth to slowdown a bit. Rajiv Anand of IDFC Mutual Fund had estimated the Q1 FY09 GDP number at 8.50%-8.70% and had said that anything below 8% is a disappointment. Atsi Sheth of Reliance Capital feels the GDP at 7.9% will disappoint the street ...
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Hiking the CRR rate is fine... But why the RBI is not paying interest to the banks on CRR since they were paying it earlier when the CDD was at lower ebb?
naren...
In reply to:
RBI may hike CRR, not repo rate in Oct: Rel Cap
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Atsi Sheth, Chief Economist, Reliance Capital said that the inflation has not peaked yet. She believes that part of marginal decline in inflation is due to lower fuel prices. Sheth expects inflation to inch back up to the 13% mark.
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Atsi Sheth, Chief Economist, Reliance Capital said that the inflation has not peaked yet. She believes that part of marginal decline in inflation is due to lower fuel prices. Sheth expects inflation to inch back up to the 13% mark. ...
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India’s economy expanded by 7.9 per cent in the first quarter of the financial year, its slowest pace in three years, official data showed on Friday.
The figure was far below the previous quarter\'s growth of 8.8 percent and the 9.2 percent expansion logged by Asia\'s third-largest economy in the first quarter of the previous financial year. ...
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MARKETS
Call : Seen up as banks may rush to meet reserve needs in early trade.
CBLOs seen at 8.00-8.50%. 3-day call: 6.50-9.00% vs 6.50-6.75% 1-day Thu.
Bonds : Seen up on fall in inflation rate, improved liquidity and banks\' SLR
demand. 10-year yield: 8.70-8.90% vs 8.77% Thu.
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Rupee :
Up as banks may sell dlrs noting its weakness and on hope of FII inflow
as local shares seen firm. Range: 43.6500-43.8500/$1 vs 43.7800 Thu.
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Stocks:
Likely to rise as inflation below estimate; Apr-Jun GDP data eyed.
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Call at Rs. 44 per dollar. I thing good deal of dollar selling at Rs. 44 will be seen. Oil Importing will be seen drop from major better develeoping countries than India like China. Also, Crude correction is not at all over. Crude will correct till USD 70 per Barrels. So. I see Rs. 40 per dollar revisited in medium term. Long term target for Dollar is Rs. 28-Rs.31....
In reply to:
Re not to touch 46/$ if conditions stay stable: HSBC
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Richard Yetsenga, Regional Forex Strategist, HSBC does not see rupee at 46 to a dollar level unless the environment deteriorates. He feels that dollar should continue to strengthen globally over the next two months.
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it is not the rupees strength but dollars weakness will rule the market. So, let us watch how far dollar will behave after alll negative effects in USA economy and the market....
In reply to:
Rupee tumbles against the dollar
Posted by : MMB Messenger
In what can be termed as important news, rupee has tumbled, with dollar strengthening across Asia; dollar is higher in the NDF (Non-deliverable forward) market as well.
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In what can be termed as important news, rupee has tumbled, with dollar strengthening across Asia; dollar is higher in the NDF (Non-deliverable forward) market as well. ...
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