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Market Outlook - Short Term
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
We have been seeing meyhem in the stock market across the globe for the month or so we has accentuted in the last week ,and last week has gone with bad memories for investors across the globe.
Would next few days would bring some respite everyone asking,and no one has the answer.
We must understand that this has not happend in one day ,just 10 months before we were dancing and having feel good factor at Sensex 21000.
Many of us caught at very wrong foot when we presumed at 15500 is fair valuation for the market and bought good quality stock.
Now the most of the bad newses are factored in to the market and down side risk are limited for sure.
that does not give any hope as we are caught even with good stock at bad price now they have fallen so much that they would take very long time to recover and by than Sensex again would be at the level of 15000.
Ultimately it is very bad game going on around where investors are taken up of ride and either it is upward jorney or downward they are caught at the wrong foot.
Story does not end here irrespective of other investment modalities they always suffer,mutual fund NAV is falling ,Gold shows psyschophrenic behavior,commodity we dont understand much,bank deposits fears looms around of bankrupcy even for the bank like ICICI.
Now it is prudent for the people at higher level to the best in the larger interest of more than 2 crores small investors of the country.
How we are caught to give you example
that how the blue chips have fallen in this carnage
TISCO now at 290
Telco 290
Icicibak 360
Aban 1100
TCS 525
RCOM 230
DLF 270
Imagine all these stocks were baught when SEnsex was at 15000
It is very difficlt to predict that even at 15000 in future which may be a year aprt they would reach to same level.
Please share ur experiences....
Tracked by: 1 Boarder
Yes most of investors confidence in equity market is shattered....
In reply to:
Has your confidence in equities been shattered?
Posted by :
MMB Messenger
Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger 
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hey pkjattking,
Even gud to see Gold Prices cracking up slowly and slowly! :)
I am waiting for that BOND Market to crack up soon so that better days can be expected for Equity Market!
That Bond Market is still NOT going for a TOSS! :( :(
It is time to prepare for that BIG Discount Sale coming up in equity market if those FIIs continue with Dirty Game in Indian markets like what they did in other markets.
Ppl who are into the GAME should not get into PANIC and SELL. Just do some HOMEWORK as far as FRESH investments are to be considered into the market!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : pkjattking
As far as I concerned....they who ever they are told us that us dollar was dead..... not true.....look its live n kicking ass...Opec is getting banged both ways oil is loosing ground and there cash reserves on euro have lost at least 25%..... + watch real estate to get hit hard in middle east..... they told me oil will hit 200 +.... not true...top Russian oil stock holders have lost billions... Russian stock market is halted attleast 10 times ....... they are telling me gold is safe haven that will also prove to b wrong ... just like oil gold sellers will not know how to exit......They have bring on a manufactured credit squeeze to force sell equity shares .... and that`s what I will buy only. .... folks its time to defend yourself and not give in to this nonsense...
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Dear googol,
Let us hope we do not see those levels as that would mean the worse possible Dirty Game those BS FIIs can PLAY in Indian markets!
I do agree that many PLAYers are waiting for such Dirt Cheap Prices within these 3 months!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : googol
1203
Dear BSR,
The levels you have indicated are quite possible as the smart have already finished,off loading their holdings and the weak have started the process just now,to enable the smart to re enter
Regards,
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Dear sp.palo,
You are right that this week will be a decisive week.
Let us just hope that DOW does not go below 7400 level in these 3 weeks. That 7400 level is an IMPORTANT level for DOW! As always, once that level is Broken, ppl will be keeping a watch on extreme end point of that BEARish corrections in present conditions.
Retail investors should be cautious about putting any FRESH investments into the market as of now. Such investors should do HOMEWORK before putting any Money into the market.
Those who are prone to heat attack, have complaining attitude or are risk prone should stay away from the market.
Game will continue to take turns going ahead!
If Nifty goes below 3000 even before the expected longer time frame, then expect GAME continue to remain Dirty going ahead.
Gud luk & happy investing! ...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : sp.palo
Dear BSR,
do you feel the global scenario is stabilizing or still worsening.This week will be definitely a decisive week, guided by Monday.
If the Fib Low of 10059 breaks and followed by the second support of 9892 breaks this week, no blood will be there to be shed. More than 40% of retail investors will be out of the market forever.
regards
shakti
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Dear lovemeall26,
If you look at Renuka history before split up, the all low time during the BULLish time was below 200 level. So if someone does a simple mathematical calculation taking into account that split up, it is quite natural to expect Renuka coming below or around 20 level. :) Even technical charts suggest the same over a longer period of time unless some BULL Operator come into picture. So please keep that in mind for Renuka if Dirty Game continues.
Anyway, last week, once I square off some positions around 3600 last week with small pull ups, seeing no desire for taking Bifty UP by those BIG PLAYers, I had no choice but to go SHORT!
GAME has started getting DIRTY ever since those BS FIIs continue with MAD SELLing and Nifty entered that BEAR territory of 3690 value.
As per my BS expectation, these three weeks along with month of Novemeber / December should provide many stocks at very DIRT cheap prices if those FIIs continue with their MAD SELLing.
Meanwhile, I did some TA for a longer time period for various indexes.
If the GAME continues to GO DIRTY, then expect more worse days ahead.
--
If Sensex goes below 8800 or Nifty goes below 2600, then ppl should forget about any recovery in Indian STOCK market for a few months until those BS Big PLAYers are over with their BUYing or over with their BS stories! :)
For DOW, 7400 is the equivalent long term support!
If we look at all those 3 indexes, then we are close to LONG Term support for them all.
That is why, I believe that within 3 months, many stocks should be available at very DIRT Cheap prices. Ppl should do their HOMEWORK before putting any FRESH investments into the market!
--
Now, I read more BS stories all around. for example: IIP number is too low. Pakistan Stock Exchange is planning about CLOSURE for a month.
Gud luk & happy investing!...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : lovemeall26
Hello BSR,
It indeed is scary to see your previus bullish undertones within you die so soon and the same becoming so bearish that you think renuka will come down to 18 rupees level. If all the remaining bulls start thinking the way you are, then this market is surely doomed. There is no doubt that we will sink further , but the rally I was talking about on my homepage is for the coming week and not a permanent one. As per my Open Interest charts, quite a lot of shorts have been covered down at 3200 - 3250 levels because that is the intermediate bottom at present. Wheather that 3200 will hold or not is a different question, but we should be prepared for both sides movements any time now. That is what I have tried to explain.
take care
lovemeall26
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hello pkjattking,
Its simple to calculate then. Udayan must be long in his positions and Mittali must be short. Hence, the respective body language of both of them.
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : pkjattking
I was just watch Mr Udayan it seems like if he is having hard time breathing or his throat is dried up... will some one give him a glass of water plz..... on the other hand Mitali seems to b giggling a bit....lol
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
U r right that confidence in the market has shaken so much that we cannot expect investors to come back to market quickly as many of them hv already lost more than 60-80% of their investment value. It will b only a gradual improvement....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : snvaish
I expect that Sensex will surely touch 9000 till 16.10.2008 and then will start recovery. initially there may be sharp bounce and will retest this level of 9000 , there after may start establizing. Upmove not expected during 2008, however consolidation is expected in Nov & Dec in the range of 9000 -10000. the sentiments has so badly shaken that smart money will not return in the market so early.
Let us see what happens
Tracked by: 3 Boarders
Kalidas:
It seems bear sterns refused to take part in the Long term capital bailout.. so it was the odd mann out.. and it got a fitting reply when it was the weakest..
also the federal reserve is not owned by the united states govt but by the banks.. so there is a vicious circle out here..
=happy investing...
In reply to:
Why US brokers merge with US Banks?
Posted by : Kalidas
for Soumen,
Interesting. I did not investigate what you mentioned, but had some similar inner feeling that something was wrong.
It looks like the firms like Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers were deliberately made bankrupt after transferring all bad assets (some of which you mentioned) by the banks like JPMC, CitiCorp and even Bank of America, so that their balance sheets were cleaned up and bankrupted firms will not have anything to pay the creditors.
Only other day, Financial Service Authority (FSA) in UK demanded Lehman Brothers to get back US$ 8 billions transferred to US Office only hours before declaring bankruptcy in London. The question arises, why did and where Lehman Brothers transferred the $ 8 Billions and what for? Did they buy Bad Assets from some other banks and paid them $ 8 billions in cash to cover up the losses at the original banks? There is a Criminal Conspiracy in what is going on at Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns. How come that Lehman was allowed to fail and rest - Merrill and Morgan Stanley and goldman were allowed to survive by letting them merge with the banks or making them bank themselves. such plan did not become overnight. It was in the air for over months. If that was so, was it a game plan to let only Lehman go bankrupt and save the rest of three?
Kalidas, Hong Kong
23/9/2008
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hello BSR,
It indeed is scary to see your previus bullish undertones within you die so soon and the same becoming so bearish that you think renuka will come down to 18 rupees level. If all the remaining bulls start thinking the way you are, then this market is surely doomed. There is no doubt that we will sink further , but the rally I was talking about on my homepage is for the coming week and not a permanent one. As per my Open Interest charts, quite a lot of shorts have been covered down at 3200 - 3250 levels because that is the intermediate bottom at present. Wheather that 3200 will hold or not is a different question, but we should be prepared for both sides movements any time now. That is what I have tried to explain.
take care
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Dear lovemeall26,
In my BS opinion, You have explained different situations correctly.
Just for info: I am SHORT on Nifty! :)
Over a longer time frame, I expect Nifty continue to come down and stablise under 3000 level unless DOW make some kind of immediate UPTREND above 10000 level.
You may find a bit SCARY to know what kind of level I am looking for building those LT investment portfolio. :) Just to give an idea: IFCI about 12-15 level, Nagarjuna around 12-14 level, Renuka around 18-22 level.
If I do not see those counters coming to my price level target, then I will PLAY as per PLAYers PLAYing the GAME!
This is like I will invest in a new home in real estate only when a flat of 1 crore CRASH to a price of 20 lakhs first and then will see the new developments / situtations! :)
I hope that clears some BS points as far as building those LT investments are concerned!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hi coolboy007,
Its so dangerous trading the way you are doing - I will trade my puts at 2.45 pm ? And what if there is a small gap down in the morning and a huge rally in the afternoon. Can you imagine the condition of your put then. If you cannot follow your trade regularly, its better to avoid it and better to do delivery only. Because in futures and options, we have to wait whole day for that particular two or five minutes in a day when things change radically. That is the point where we day traders strike and make our kill. I am not saying we will surely rally tomorrow, but since we are oversold on the charts, a rally is long overdue. Max I think we can see is 3705 to 3800 this week. take care,
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
coolboy007
Thanks lovemeall sir.
I would come back from school around 2:45pm so whatever rate would be prevailing would have to sell pe at that. So by your guidance i feel that now you are expecting a bounceback in nifty. Thats good for my longs.
Can you give an approx target where i should be booking profits in my longs.
Thanks sir
Rajat.
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hello vam_aru,
Yes its getting worse with two more small banks gone down the drain. Not only that, in Iceland, they have closed down the stock markets and in Italy, they have suspended trading in many stocks due to excessive losses. Next I think Pakistan will also close down its stock exchange. Who would imagine in january this year at the peak of the bull run, that things would come to such a pass in just nine months down the road. trade with caution.
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : vam_aru
Dear Lovemeall26,
Two more snmall banks fail, That brings a total to 15 Banks failure, Let see if this is not playing a dampener again in DOW markets...? and yesterday what a volatility it witnessed, 1000 points volatility from Low to high, ( 7882 to 8900 ).
Investors need to find a way to protect their portfolios...
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
1203
Dear BSR,
The levels you have indicated are quite possible as the smart have already finished,off loading their holdings and the weak have started the process just now,to enable the smart to re enter
Regards,
...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Dear lovemeall26,
In my BS opinion, You have explained different situations correctly.
Just for info: I am SHORT on Nifty! :)
Over a longer time frame, I expect Nifty continue to come down and stablise under 3000 level unless DOW make some kind of immediate UPTREND above 10000 level.
You may find a bit SCARY to know what kind of level I am looking for building those LT investment portfolio. :) Just to give an idea: IFCI about 12-15 level, Nagarjuna around 12-14 level, Renuka around 18-22 level.
If I do not see those counters coming to my price level target, then I will PLAY as per PLAYers PLAYing the GAME!
This is like I will invest in a new home in real estate only when a flat of 1 crore CRASH to a price of 20 lakhs first and then will see the new developments / situtations! :)
I hope that clears some BS points as far as building those LT investments are concerned!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
I expect that Sensex will surely touch 9000 till 16.10.2008 and then will start recovery. initially there may be sharp bounce and will retest this level of 9000 , there after may start establizing. Upmove not expected during 2008, however consolidation is expected in Nov & Dec in the range of 9000 -10000. the sentiments has so badly shaken that smart money will not return in the market so early.
Let us see what happens ...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Dear vam,
Bears have taken their toll. No serious slide in Dow
anymore. It may not fall below 7500. It touched 7883
on Friday.
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Good useful post in ur page.
regrads
shakti...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : vam_aru
Dear Shakti,
Yeah you are right , Even if we try to reach the level of 3800, investors will start booking profits and drag the index lower, so the consolidation activity to occur for 3 to 9 months.
for this I have posted one strategy under "Market Outlook - Medium Term", the Title is "How to play markets for 3 to 9 Months ?" , and the same has been updated in my homepage also.
Please have a look and let me know your views, your suggestions are welcome..
Boarder Circle
