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MOTHER of all BULL-RUNS is pending- Pranky!! :)
Posted by :
pranky
Boarder Since : 14th Apr 04
Posted 9671 messages to date
..Contd.
This is PART 2 of earlier msg:-
Over-optimistic and Overconfident investors did not pay any heed to the first signs of trouble. They were anchored to the thought that any crisis would blow away.
We had a four-year bull run and now it is foolish to expect that the bear market will end in four months. What is the road ahead for investors? Looking at the above problems how does an investor avoid them?
The most obvious solution is to stop relying on such pointless forecasts. There are plenty of common sense approaches that one can implement without the use of forecasts. Value investing is an idea whose time has come. In the current situation, there are eye popping values available at 6 to 10% dividend yield of good sustainable businesses run by credible management and having a healthy cash flow.
If one is very risk averse and wants to play safe, then equity investment is the best option. Have a two-year view.
You don’t buy life insurance and look at what will happen tomorrow................... Do U??????
Cheers
pranky!!
.
MOTHER of all BULL-RUNS is pending- Pranky!! :)
Posted by : pranky
Boarder Since : 14th Apr 04
Posted 9671 messages to date
Anns
Hi!
thot of sharing this EXCELLENT article with U ll...
KEEP *FORECASTS* FOR THE WEATHER
As an analyst’s job is to analyse and not forecast, it’s time individuals used common sense approaches for picking stocks
We are going through turbulent times and investors have lost heavily as they had based their investment decisions on forecasts of the so-called experts. My experience in the markets has given me the humility to accept that there are no geniuses in the markets. It is the media who makes them (experts) or a short spell of luck.
Let’s go back just six months in time. We had practically most of the brokerage reports recommending an array of stocks with very optimistic price targets. We had mutual fund managers going on marketing trips and giving rosy picture of the economy and the opportunities in the stock markets. Stocks were a fancy.
Now, the same stocks which were recommended as **buys** are recommended as **sells** by the same broking outfits. Their analysts say so. How can an investor hope to make money when he buys when the prices are high and sells when the prices are low??? He would have been better off had the broking outfits recommended them as **sells** six months back and **buys** just now.
This brings us to an important conventional wisdom: can analysts predict the future? Their job is to analyse and not to forecast. However, we have a money-spinning financial industry where lay investors make their decisions based on the forecasts or predictions made by the analysts. Not only that, the sophisticated investors also fall prey to the predictions of the so-called experts or analysts.
The 6th century BC poet Lao Tzu observed, **Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.** How true is this if we look at the state of the financial health of investors today? One would do well to keep in mind these words of wisdom when making investment decisions based on media reports, TV shows, expert seminars and lectures among others.
There have been two strong behavioural biases that have worked in poor forecasting by these so-called experts. One is Over-optimism and the other is Overconfidence. When times were good and the stock markets were rewarding mediocre stock picking, people were very optimistic on the future of the economy and the stock markets. The early gains made them overconfident of the knowledge on the stock markets and the economic fundamentals. It also gave them the overconfidence in their own ability to ride the stock market waves.
These behavioural biases did not even spare the captains of our industry.
India Inc was on an acquisition spree. Take the instance of Tata Steel taking over Corus when the steel prices were at an all-time high, resulting in paying an unduly high price. Similarly, we had Tata Motors acquiring Jaguar and Land Rover at the height of an economic boom. The markets have already started punishing these stocks.
In the last two years, we had Jet Airways acquiring Sahara and Kingfisher Airlines acquiring Deccan. Now, they are in deep losses and are running to the government for help.
Does for one moment anyone doubt the business acumen of the management of these companies?? But then where did they falter? Was there anything wrong with their analysis? Yes. Their analysts were not doing analysis but they were forecasting. They were too optimistic on the future and the good times had made them overly confident of their knowledge and ability.
Another behavioral bias that has played an important role is anchoring. We had been so much anchored to the good times of the last four years that all the forecasts which were made were based on the past performance.
Hence, there was not sufficient adjustment in spite of the evidence that the world economy could be affected by a liquidity crisis. The first ripple of the sub-prime was felt in November 2007
Read for the solutions in d next msg ..To be Contd.
Wake Up MMB Moderator
Posted by :
KintuParantu
Boarder Since : 19th Oct 08
Posted 28 messages to date
Dear Moderator,
Whats goingon on MMB. You are redflagging certain boarders for abusive language, its good. But you are leaving your friend circle like callahan? what moral values you possess? You are totally partial moderator sorry dictator. You find others post as offensive and abusive. Where as the below post, you never find abusive, do you tie balck ribbon around your eyes?.not only below post, but also several post of this offender are still remain intact on various threads. But you pretend un noticed.
Until you RED FLAG callahan, I will keep posting this message.
See below:
18 Nov 2008 15:05
Stop radhika nandlal & nightowl harassment
About MMB
Posted by : Callahan
View full thread (22 messages)
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Arre wah... Its so simple... U just need to walk away... But then u won`t cause u can`t... And the answer is simple... u r a frustrated ass in the hole... Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha... ROFl...
Unquote -
PS: DON`T SIMPLY DELET ABOVE POST. I WANT FULL JUSTICE: redflag callahan.
MOTHER of all BULL-RUNS is pending- Pranky!! :)
Posted by : KotakInvestment
Boarder Since : 14th Apr 06
Posted 2720 messages to date
Dear wish,
If you see Friday closing in red, and Nifty falling below 2700 on closing bases in next three trading days, Recent low of 2252.75 can be broken and next Nifty target within few weeks can be 1981-1831.I hope I prove wrong.
Target for month end looks me difficult to predict. Volatility is at its peak and single negative news causes market to slump. Jan feb sensex closed above 17k,17648 and 17578 respy) while feb below 16k
(15644
Again sensex gained to 17287 at the month end in Apriul-2008 But, after April - 2008,we have seen market never closing above its previous month end figures. below are the data for you. This is not the bottom that market is searching despite Inflation come down to 8.98 and crude at its 4 year low.
Global crises are likely to affect our GDP much much higer than expected. We are Net importer and weak rupee creating burden on fiscal deficits. However it could have boosted exports but global slow down has effected demand for our products. China have to have huge cut on production and dumping at the rate we can not afford.
Al,such factors leads to believe that we shall wait for either side break out before buying long, thinking long, investing long.
Month Sensex High sensex close
___________________________________________________
Jan-2008 21206.77 17648.71
Feb-2008 18895.34 17578.72
Mar-2008 17227.56 15644.44
Apr-2008 17480.74 17287.31
May-2008 17735.70 16415.57
Jun-2008 16632.72 13461.60
Jul-2008 15130.09 14355.75
Aug-2008 15579.78 14002.43
Sep-2008 15107.01 12860.43
Oct-2008 13203.86 9788.06
Nov-2008 ???????? ???????
_______________________________________________
Only october month was enough hard for the traders to think twice before taking fresh entry!!!!!!! This is the market in which no data
can boost the confidence of the investors. It is crises of confidence that has to be restored with solid steps from govt and RBI
just talking about growth story will not work now.
You must have seen most of the statements are comming either from PM himself or from its advisory. FM is behind the curtain most of the time. He has given that much statements that people may take reverse
if he say something !!!!! ( experience)
If we find dust being setteling on global horizon and slow down resting for few weeks, this market with 12.033 PE and 2.57 P/B is good investing opportunity for Global players. However liquidity will play vital roll in next few quarters keeping valuations aside.
Look at 1992, Sensex high 4546 with PE 36.19.
........1993, Sensex high 3459 with PE 31.78.
........1994, Sensex top 4643 with PE 45.45.
It is clear picture of non viable tops!!!!!!
Today at G-20 PM rightly said that current crises is
only due to failure of rating agencies!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
and loop holes in the system........................
he looks true upto this levels. however, sub-prime
was created by US govt only, Do any one know ?????
CHINA, JAPAN and few more countries were given fullest space to export in USA with single condition to retain all such surpluses of export as well as budgetory surplus in USA and invest in US securities.This was to hide jobless claims and supporting spendings.
( Through financial firms and banking system), Thus sub prime is not the eoot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Any way, I still hesitate to say buy for long!!!!!!!
Let us watch 6257 or even more downside before feb-2009.
S K
(4.75)
Ansewer is simple police has become theieves,after all stock is the easy way to earn white money to contest election
MMB Code of conduct
Posted by : WBuffetBlog
Boarder Since : 24th Nov 06
Posted 1520 messages to date
(4.43)
Moderator,
Please see below post by your boarder friend ramge abusing me. Its height of voilation of MMB code of conduct. Don`t you think its high time, you should take action on ramge? Inspite of such filthy and offensive language used by ramge, if you keep mum, then I think, MMB is certainly not a good place any more.
In what way, am I offending him or provocating him? I am neither replying him nor mentioning anywhere his name with any offensive words in my posts. Then, why is this? Its murder of MMB code of conduct, if boarders like ramge are not redflaged.
Hope you will redflag ramge this time as per your promise.
See the post by Ramge on Teledata Board -
Oh God!
Posted by : RAMGE
Manher,
This Wasteful Bloody Bastard or WBB keeps provoking me and crying to the MMB MOD. I am giving this reply so that the MOD will get a feel of this third class specimen doing the begging rounds in MMB taking the name of a legendary investor.
In 2005 -2006 this specimen was advising people not to go near teledata saying it was silverline, it was penta and that he did not have any holdings.
Suddenly in 2008 he says he made a good profit before the demerger and exited. Such gutter living pigs eat and shit in the same place and misuse MMB for their nefarious ends. First of all I will bet my bottom dollar that the only thing he can accumulate is his fart. Look at his photograph and you will see.
MOD: I Have responded to his Wilful provocation. I have a right to respond. This is what has been happening.
Cheers
ramji
MMB Code of conduct
Posted by :
WarburgPincus
Boarder Since : 15th Jul 07
Posted 65 messages to date
(4.33)
Dear Moderator,
Is mmb a place for investment blogs or a fish market? very poor moderation. under your moderation,quality of this site has diminished . The same kind atmosphere prevails its better to shut this site.
Lets welcome the next rally for 2016.
Posted by : googol
Boarder Since : 22nd Apr 06
Posted 3654 messages to date
Dear Sam,
Next bear market is just 14 hrs away and you can be prepared from now on.
You may go to the site Investopedia and study to get good knowledge of the stock trading.
I would strongly urge you to avoid day trading until you know the game fully.If you insist then pl.do paper trading for at least a few weeks and try to understand.The tool generally used is the pivot points for the stocks (Investopedia would explain this)and/or based on the views given by the stock market experts/analysts in the TV/pink paper and by acting EXACTLY OPPOSITE to them.
Q: How to succeed in life?
A: To jump at the right opportunity
Q: How to identify the right opportunity?
A: Keep on jumping!
Hope this answers your query on:
EXIT at right time to avoid BIG LOSSES during bear market +
ENTER at the right time to earn BIG PROFITS in a bull run ?
Before Jan`08,I was replying to such questions as `Avoid shady stocks /pennys and go for only blue chips`
Now I know that the market is color blind and can not differentiate among blue,grey or black chips and so you have to keep 50% of your surplus funds as cash always.
Market has different categories of scrips
Those which go up fast and crash also fast..These are called midcaps/pennys
Those which go up slowly but crash fast..These are called large caps or blue chips
Those which never go up but crash fast..These are what we buy in our first year in stock market
Those which ONLY go up fast but never comedown/crash ..These are what we keep on searching from day 1 to our last day in stock market but NEVER succeed
& there is one special category,
Those which stay put or even slide after we buy but zooms ONLY after we sell them in frustration...These are called Karma stocks
Good Luck!
MMB Code of conduct
Posted by : MMB Moderator
Boarder Since : 24th Dec 02
Posted 1241 messages to date
Hi WBuffetBlog,
Ramge has replied and he said he will not use the language if it upsets you... Sir its sorted without any heated exchanges.. always remember when you appeal to the good in someone you always get the best back in return...
We red-flag boarders after making many appeals to them to stop.. but well meaning boarders can make a truce among themselves.. do let us know if this still upsets you
-MMB Moderator
Keep Marathi Manoos Raj Thackeray Happy !
Posted by : WarburgPincus
Boarder Since : 15th Jul 07
Posted 65 messages to date
We all should support Raj Thackeray and take his initiative
ahead by doing more...
1. We should teach our kids that if he is second in class, don`t study harder.. just beat up the student coming first and throw him out of the school
2. Parliament should have only Delhiites as it is located in Delhi
3. Prime-minister, President and all other leaders should only be from Delhi
4. No Hindi movie should be made in Bombay . Only Marathi.
5. At every state border, buses, trains, flights should be stopped and staff changed to local men
6. All Maharashtrians working abroad or in other states should be sent back as they are SNATCHING employment from Locals
7. Lord Shiva, Ganesha and Parvati should not be worshiped in our state as they belong to north ( Himalayas )
8. Visits to Taj Mahal should be restricted to people from UP only
9. Relief for farmers in Maharashtra should not come from centre because that is the money collected as Tax from whole of India , so why should it be given to someone in Maharashtra ?
10. Let`s support kashmiri Militants because they are right in killing and injuring innocent people for benifit of there state and community.
11. Let`s throw all MNCs out of Maharashtra , why should they earn from us? We will open our own Maharashtra Microsoft, MH Pepsi and MH
Marutis of the world.
12.. Let`s stop using cellphones, emails, TV, foreign Movies and dramas. James Bond should speak Marathi.
13. We should be ready to die hungry or buy food at 10 times higher price but should not accept imports from other states.
14. We should not allow any industry to be setup in Maharashtra because all machinery comes from outside.
15. We should STOP using local trains.... Trains are not manufactured by Marathi manoos and Railway Minister is a Bihari
16. Ensure that all our children are born, grow, live and die without ever stepping out of Maharashtra , then they will become true
Marathi`s.
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