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Moneycontrol.com >> Messageboard >> Category >> Market View >> Market Analysis - Technical View
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22 Nov 2008 09:08

Dear Radhika,
Good Morning.
Have the seen the bull installed in front of BSE. It looks like a donkey these days. Hahahahah... LOL
What you think about this sucker rally which is going to last for 2-3 days more ?

regards
shakti...

In reply to:

12th November

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

Thanks a lot coolboy i bet u will be india`s WHO IS WHO in terms of wealth one of these days... way to go. keep it up.. start early for that edge..

22 Nov 2008 09:03

Birdie,

I hope u dont mind this personal question..your FIL is IIT kanpur wizard? He is still as active in financial markets... btw you said u have tasted power and wealth both... ur a business family or ur hubby is in a regular job?...

In reply to:

12th November

Posted by : nightowl

still the same... rn.. or thats what i think... ive never really calculated the way you have....
my F IL IS the math wizzard.. iit kanput types..
rittz

22 Nov 2008 09:02

yea sanju,
its nearly a sucker rally. the atmosphere has not stabilized yet. Nifty touching the Oct lows and even lower cannot be denied.

so trading carefree and thinking that the bulls are in frontline would be like a child playing happily in the lawn while his house is burning behind him.

regards
shakti...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : SANJU786


ONCE AGAIN IT WILL / MAY BE THE ACTION REPLAY OF WHAT HAPPENED TO NIFTY ON 5TH NOV 2008, NIFTY WAS NOT ABLE TO TRADE ABOVE 3260 AND NIFTY EXPESS STARTED ITS DOWNWARD JOURNEY.

THIS MONDAY/TUESDAY IT MAY TRY TO TOUCH 2860 AND NIFTY EXPRESS MAY START ITS JOURNEY TOWARDS SUB 2500 LEVELS.

SANJU :)

22 Nov 2008 09:02

Thanks a lot coolboy i bet u will be india`s WHO IS WHO in terms of wealth one of these days... way to go. keep it up.. start early for that edge.....

In reply to:

12th November

Posted by : coolboy007

Radhikaji ,

Thanks once more for ur TRIN analysis , i read ur page and went long today after coming back frm school at 3:00 , DOW has closed 500 points up.I still rem the quote " i wont short Dow either " which u posted yesterday. Just hope we take cues and bounce back sharply on monday.

22 Nov 2008 08:59

Raj,

You dint answer my question why ICICIDIRECT says margin for one lot of UNITECH futures is Rs 26k when i can buy 900 shares for Rs 25k..?? lol Shouldnt margin be lower.. how does one calculate margin for icici...

Another doubt is i am planning to hold my unitech futures for sometimes at least, say 6 months lol lol... so if the price of unitech goes up from 28 to 38 say in this period, does the margin i keep for my unitech increase proporionately meaning i cannto siphon off my profits coz margin money to be kept has increased... so many doubts...if i remember one thing about finance, i forget the next, the same with tax also.. these two things dont stick in my head... sorry for such dumb queries....

In reply to:

12th November

Posted by : raj_tibs

Ha Ha Rittu, a good one indeed.

This post does appear on my page twice.

Have a good day

-r

22 Nov 2008 08:42

dear HLN sir,

thanks for the NAV information. i have been a bit active only last 15 days are so. I joined in here to blow whistle to avoid a few scrips.

I dont blame luck or do if`s and buts throughout my life.

I was away during the fall for over three months in USA.

Though i am an IT tech amn for 30 long years i do not like
sending financial trx over nett. Also i do not like to have Demat / banking broking accounts at same company same place.

Nor i like handing out Power of attorney.

Hence i did n`t look at what happened in jan. even if the fall happens and goes to zero it does not affect me as i have well spread investments to take care of rainy days.

This is just another one investment for me and i do know i can realise my values when i need them.

I would definitely be watching your Tech Analysis and guidance.
at appropriate time i amy even call for your services.

May be we can even communicate over personal mail id`s.

Thanks sir. i would be away from the net emails blogs etc for a week on a short vacation , a small trekking expedition.

Regards

honestytrack



...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : hindlevernet

Dear honestytrack,

It is purely upto mutual fund buyer when to sell and when to
switch. Fund manager cannot do anything to stop the NAV from
falling. They have no authority to switch on their own will.

I had been posting messages here since january 2008 that I see
a serious market crash and Nifty may fall by 40%. Even the name
of the thread above: WILL NIFTY HIT 3600............. started by
me tells the whole story.

Hope I have made myself clear.

Best luck next time

22 Nov 2008 08:35

Hahah... lol... thats a polar bear.....did you notice any color change..lol...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : Nish

As I was watching the `freak bear` video, every now and then the bear was getting replaced by Shankar Sharma.

22 Nov 2008 08:30

One thing is sure... Indians have out smarted...fools in west... they saw what was coming this time.... I agree............

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : vtycoon

DOW 500 book profits...per lot profit *580 .. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 8000 is crossed wow wow wow ! dats it INDIA has won :)..dow is takin +ve cues frm india :D


DOW pls get CLOSED,...we would be gr8ful :)
+ anotha thing

FTSE will open 150 points up. n it may go 200++ during intra day ..accc 2 my guess ! lets see...nw

22 Nov 2008 08:12

Dear BSR,

For me the more important was the FII selling... Expect them to turn net buyers on Monday.

Mad christmas selling will happen for sure, and that is why the index needs to move up to 3300-3500, so the selling can happen at a decent price :-)

Recall the CNBC poll earlier this month - will nov series close above 3000.. 75% said no... The recent poll -will nifty retest the previous lows - 75% said yes :-)

So the writing is on the wall... 3000 will be crossed before expiry in all likelihood... And expect the "bullishness" to return back to the market for the first couple of sessions in the dec series before the mad selling starts.

Regards

...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Dear raj_tibs,

Let us hope for the best!

Let us hope no more X-mas MAD SELLing happens from FIIs now and DIIs continue to BUY more! It is interesting to observe that although there was no support from those DIIs, still the index rose!

FII 21-Nov-2008 1081.08 1786.64 -705.56

DII 21-Nov-2008 814.41 768.19 46.22

Still, Be careful and cautious! A slight miscalculation about those POINTS would result in HEAVY Damages resulting in Nifty around 1750 values!

Gud luk & happy investing! :)...

22 Nov 2008 08:06

Ha Ha Rittu, a good one indeed.

This post does appear on my page twice.

Have a good day

-r...

In reply to:

12th November

Posted by : nightowl

i sent this post earlier too, dont know why it dint show up on your reply page...
anyway... BETTER NEWS STILL TO ADD TO MY EARLIER MESSAGE.

barack obama has named the future fed sec. by monday his whole team will be out in the open.. the uncertainities caused by his silence now gone.. we will go forward now.. i dont say the problems are over, but hank paulson will be going soon,and transition period will be in effect for the president elect.. there is much to rejoice over...
regards
Rittu


heres to you raj,
cheers .... hip hip hurray.. i hope you are abs right... everybody start accumalating... NOW...
raj here is a piece i got from a friend ... you,ll find this very interesting...
rittu


It was autumn, and the Red Indians on the remote reservation asked their new chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild. Since he was a Red Indian chief in a modern society, he couldn`t tell what the weather was going to be.

Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect wood to be prepared.

But being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea.

He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked "Is the coming winter going to be cold?"
"It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed," the meteorologist at the weather service responded.

So the chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood.

A week later, he called the National Weather Service again. "Is it going to be a very cold winter?"
"Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied, "It`s definitely going to be a very cold winter. "

The chief again went back to his people and told them to collect every scrap of wood they could find.

Two weeks later, he called the National Weather Service again. "Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?"

"Absolutely" , the man replied. "It`s going to be one of the coldest winters ever. "
"How can you be so sure?" the chief asked.
The weatherman replied, "The Red Indians are collecting wood like crazy."


This is how stock market works!!!

22 Nov 2008 08:04

RN,

all wrong.. you dont plan to square off the calls you have sold unless you are making decent profits on it. So if Unitech goes above 47.5, only then is there a chance of the option getting exercised, in which case you sell your shares/future at the market price immediately. So, your upside is capped to the option strike price + the premium you get for selling hte option.

So if you bought future at 32, and sold Dec 45 call at 2.5.. If the future goes to 40, your profit is (40-32) + 2.5 * 900 = 9900, less transaction costs (about 100).

If the share goes to 50, your net profit is (50-32) + (45-50+2.5) *900 = 13950 less transaction costs (about 100).

Of course, if you are looking for only a 4 re gain, then selling options doesnt make sense.

Still think that if the intention is hold for long term, it is better to buy stocks - ultimately it is the stock price which governs the futures price... And all hedge funds first build positions in stocks before using F&O trades... It also opens up a lot of arbitrage opportunities. e.g. if the future goes into a deep discount, you can sell all your shares and buy the future. And shares allow you get the margin required to sell a call/future (note that it does cost an insititution margin on selling a call if they hold a future.. only retail does!).






...

In reply to:

12th November

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

Wrong!

1.5 x 900 = 1350 loss in options

4 x 900 = 3600 profit in future

Brokerage would be say Rs 600

So net profit is

3600 - 1350 -600 = 1650.

If i continue to keep margin and wait until unitech rises it would make more sense coz the margin may not be worthless one day like options can. LOL

22 Nov 2008 07:27


ONCE AGAIN IT WILL / MAY BE THE ACTION REPLAY OF WHAT HAPPENED TO NIFTY ON 5TH NOV 2008, NIFTY WAS NOT ABLE TO TRADE ABOVE 3260 AND NIFTY EXPESS STARTED ITS DOWNWARD JOURNEY.

THIS MONDAY/TUESDAY IT MAY TRY TO TOUCH 2860 AND NIFTY EXPRESS MAY START ITS JOURNEY TOWARDS SUB 2500 LEVELS.

SANJU :)...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : sp.palo

yea BSR,
Good Morning. Instead of your green spots its a green patch in DOW. The currency ratio is improving. In both DOW and NIFty its the last hour trade that boomed.

regards
shakti

22 Nov 2008 07:17

yea BSR,
Good Morning. Instead of your green spots its a green patch in DOW. The currency ratio is improving. In both DOW and NIFty its the last hour trade that boomed.

regards
shakti...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

BS point: For any shift in the GAME, DOW needs to go above 8100-8200 level!

YEN DOLLAR ratio needs to go above 99!

Gud luk & happy investing! :)

22 Nov 2008 07:09

Dear HLN,
Thanks a lot and you are honestly right that none is perfect. But in trendy markets, analysis works.

regards
shakti ...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : hindlevernet

Dear shakti,

Every analyst uses his own method of calculation. I don`t use
candlestick charting. So no point of shadow or body. There are
so many ways and none is perfect. But I use Fibonacci retracement
all the time between various levels of resistance and support,
intra-day, short and medium and long term. In fact FIBO numbers
are heart and soul of ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLE

22 Nov 2008 07:04

Mr. Singh, a former economics professor, wants India to play a bigger role in shoring-up the current global financial system to prevent future crises. At the Group of 20 Summit last week, Prime Minister Singh said he argued for a global safety net that would protect the poor, but he also joined with other countries in discouraging protectionist trade barriers to shield markets from the crisis. That, he said, would be the "worst response."

By PETER WONACOTT...

In reply to:

India to Focus on Growth, Poverty ...

Posted by : sambala

NEW DELHI--With the global economy darkening and a general election months away, two of India`s top leaders pledged government action to sustain growth and protect the poor.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, at a conference Friday, said India would be able to maintain 8% annual economic growth a rate that represents a slowdown from 9% last year but is still above the near-term forecasts of many economists. While the Indian prime minister didn`t offer specific policy prescriptions, he suggested the response to the gathering economic troubles would be aggressive.

No instrument of public policy will be spared," he said.

India is investing heavily in infrastructure, and has raised salaries for government employees and offered emergency loan relief for farmers. More public spending carries risks, namely a government deficit that has expanded well-beyond targets. But India`s leaders must also shepherd a poverty-ridden country through a global economic crisis and avoid political upheaval.

In a speech that followed the prime minister, Sonia Gandhi, the leader of the ruling Congress party, said concerns for the poor would guide the government`s future economic decisions. Liberalization would be accompanied by "sensible but not heavy-handed regulation," she said.

In a jab to the crowd of business leaders, Ms. Gandhi praised the nationalization of the country`s banks under her mother-in-law and former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. Critics cite the move, four decades ago, as an example of the government`s heavy-handed intervention that shielded the country from private competition and dragged down the country`s growth. Defenders say it reassured depositors and stabilized the financial sector. "Every passing day bears out the wisdom of that decision," Ms. Gandhi said.

Until recently, India`s government officials were forecasting double-digit economic growth and the gradual further opening of sheltered sectors, such as retail, to foreign investors. But the remarks of the two Indian leaders reflect the new economic as well as political realities. Economic trouble in India poses risks to the Congress party, which heads a coalition government, and openings for its opponents.

Six state elections will be held by the end of the year and a national parliamentary vote -- which installs a new government and prime minister -- is expected early next year. The Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, is hoping to unseat its Congress by cobbling together a majority in the national Parliament.

"One thing is very clear among voters," said Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, a BJP spokesman. "The general mood is to change the present regime."

The BJP confronts its own challenges. As it governs in three of the states where votes are being held, it faces anti-incumbency pressures, too. The BJP`s declared prime ministerial candidate could also cloud its message of change. L.K. Advani, an 81-year old Hindu nationalist and former government minister, has been a steadfast fixture of Indian politics.

Mr. Advani, in his speech to the same conference, accused the Congress party of being in "denial mode" -- trying to shift blame for India`s economic distress to global forces from its own mismanagement. The current government, he noted, allowed food prices to rise sharply before excessive credit-tightening measures stanched lending and caused new economic pain. He said the BJP management of the economy would be "radically different" and it would crack down on rampant corruption.

"India can`t afford a weak government with a failed leadership," he said.

Aside from the Congress Party and BJP, there are scores of smaller regional parties vying for space in a changed political landscape. Many have coalesced around local economic issues as well as concerns of religion and caste. One of the most powerful of the new parties, Bahujan Samaj Party, is led by a Dalit -- those on the lowest rung of India`s caste ladder. The BSP leader, Mayawati, who goes by a single name, is chief minister of the country`s largest province, Uttar Pradesh, in northern India. She has enlarged her party`s base to include politicians disaffected with India`s two biggest parties, Congress and BJP.

The expansive nature of India`s democracy also has exposed national and state governments to new pressures. Many Indian and overseas investors complain of political roadblocks to business and growth that don`t exist in other countries, like China. But Mr. Singh countered that India offered the world its own model of development. "We may have paid a price in terms of economic growth and efficiency, but we have gained as a free people," he said. "Let us never belittle our achievements."

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