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Reliance Natural Resources
RNRL - what the heck?
Posted by :
rahul_khTracked by: 0 Boarder
I agree with you on the fact that we should invest in a company with existing revenues but the problem here is that there are hundreds of thousands of investors who bought RNRL just based on the momentum it has shown in the past i.e. from 20 to 250. But now it has come down to a level where one can think of averaging it out at right price because there is no point in booking heavy losses.
...
In reply to:
RNRL - what the heck?
Posted by :
bzeebuzz
This piece of info I found on the net and thought worth sharing with fellow boarders. Earlier also I posted the same message but dont know why the MMB moderator didn`t allow to published it.
I have been searching the internet for weeks to find a valuation of the gas that RNRL will be getting.
No analyst has ever bothered to publish a figure about it.
Everybody just seems to a speculating about it. No one has even bothered to calculate the valuations.
Thus I have decided to do a rough estimation.
There are lot of unresolved issues, but still no harm in doing a rough estimation.
Lets starts with the basics.
How much gas is RIL going to give?
According to initial agreement RIL has to give 28 mmscmd for 17 years.
The rate in the initial agreement was fixed at $2.34 per mmbtu.
This may go up to 40 mmscmd under certain conditions.
=================================
mmscmd is "Million Standard Cubic Meter Per Day".
mmbtu is "Million British Thermal Units".
I have explained the terms later in the post.
=================================
Now comes the first uncertainty.
RIL says it cannot supply 28 mmscmd at $2.34 per mmbtu.
This is the main dispute in the court case.
The reasons that RIL gives is
- RIL has only 4.4 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of certified proven reserves (CPR).
So how much is 4.4 TCF?
1 cubic meter = 35.3 cubic feet.
This CPR of RIL reserves = 4400/35.3 billion cubic meter.
= 4400000/35.3 million cubic meter.
= 124645 million cubic meter.
At 28 mmscmd, the reserves will last 4451 days. (12 years).
However, please not that RIL will be supplying to other companies too.
25 mmscmd will be used for RIL`s own use and 12 mmscmd is supposed to go to NTPC.
Thus if RIL has an output of 28+25+12 mmscmd = 65 mmscmd, the reserves will get exhausted in 1917 days (little over 5 years).
So if 4.4 TCF figure is correct, there is no way RIL can supply gas to RNRL for 17 years.
=================================
What is RNRL`s argument?
RNRL has stated that...
=================================
RNRL has applied for gas distribution licenses for Mumbai and NCR.
However, there is a clause in the RIL - RNRL agreement, which does not allow RNRLto use the gas bought for RIL, for any other purpose, except power generation.
I really don`t understand why markets have got excited by RNRL`s gas distribution plans. There is no way Mukesh Ambani will permit RIL`s gas to be used for gas distribution. Even if RNRL has to distribute gas, it will have buy gas from sources other than RIL.
Quote:
The court has observed that the gas supplied by RIL can only be used for power generation, which rules out the gas being used for ADAG`s city gas venture. The court has also observed that RNRL has not indicated any consumption details of the gas.
=================================
there is a very famous proverb..."don`t count your chickens before they hatch..."
I am not interested in paying a price for paper plans.
mining and oil exploration are not easy businesses.
it is not that one can start digging and start selling products from day 1.
these businesses carry a substantial risk of failure. many companies have had to abandon their alloted land/exploration blocks after not finding enough resources to sustain commercial production.
RNRL has not even got any land/exploration block.
RNRL will need lot of cash for acquiring these assets and also for setting up of its gas distribution network. where is all that cash going to come from? the company has near 0 revenues right now. this means it will either have to raise debt and dilute its equity.
I would prefer to bet on businesses with existing revenues and earnings visibility. 
Rnrl 500 rs worth
Posted by :
GuestTracked by: 1 Boarder
ya good, reliance industries unable to find anything and as per Mr.Guest RNRL will explore lot of white petrol from the land allocated.. who r u ?...
In reply to:
Rnrl 500 rs worth
Posted by : Guest
Buy RNRL at this price. Strong company that has wide future plans for its business. Everything will change soon. There are some great news that RNRL will explore petrol and oil from its allocated land.
RNRL - what the heck?
Posted by : bzeebuzzTracked by: 0 Boarder
As I have mentioned earlier, why to invest in paper plans and a company whose fortune depends on court judgment? Better you go for other quality stocks. I have nothing personal against this stock or Ambanis, this are my personal views, you are free to overlook my views and proceed the way you want. In this tough time, we need earnings visibility and in this case I see no near future earnings for RNRL apart from speculative manipulation
FYI - I have no shares of RNRL in my portfolio, neither have any plans to acquire
...
In reply to:
RNRL - what the heck?
Posted by : Guest
thanks. RNRL is Rs. 5 face value - just what would be right price to enter - I think it can go to 20-30 level as it has everything in sir - plans for long-term - there is nothing in the near term. Moreover if the gas issue does not go in favour (which is unlikely as mentioned by you) then what will hold its price up.
Rnrl 500 rs worth
Posted by : GuestTracked by: 1 Boarder
Buy RNRL at this price. Strong company that has wide future plans for its business. Everything will change soon. There are some great news that RNRL will explore petrol and oil from its allocated land.
...
BSE Announcements on Reliance Natura
Posted by : MMB MessengerTracked by: 0 Boarder
Reliance Natural Resources Ltd (RNRL) has informed BSE that a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company will be held on October 21, 2008, inter alia, to consider and approve the Unaudited Financial Results of the Company for the quarter ended September 30, 2008 (Q2).
...
nayankahar
Posted by : nayankaharTracked by: 0 Boarder
what is the near future of RNRL,and indiabulls securities price of which had become one fifth , if market becomes stable say in one month will they fetch
that much liqidity?????????????????????? ...
Exit RNRL, says Agarwal
Posted by : vrp07Tracked by: 0 Boarder
hi friend
any news on core project
stock down 80% last two day...
In reply to:
Exit RNRL, says Agarwal
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Exit RNRL, says Agarwal
Posted by : MMB MessengerTracked by: 0 Boarder
...
Support-Resistance LEVELS for TODAY ! !
Posted by : DUstocksTracked by: 1 Boarder
R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3
65.16 61.58 57.16 53.58 49.16 45.58 41.16
...
RIL 40tcf reserves of gas
Posted by : GuestTracked by: 0 Boarder
Reliance gas block has 40 Tcf gas reserves
10 Oct, 2008, 1711 hrs IST, PTI
Print EMail Discuss Share Save Comment Text:
NEW DELHI: Reliance Industries` prolific D6 block in Krishna Godavari basin off the east coast contains in-place reserves of 40 Trillion cubic feet,
said the firm`s junior partner Niko Resources.
The company has made 20 gas and one oil discovery in the 7,645 sqkm KG-DWN-98/3 or D6 block in deep-sea of Bay of Bengal, said Edward S Sampson, Chairman of Board, President and CEO of Niko in analyst calls.
These discoveries have resulted "in 40 Tcf gas in-place," he said.
Reliance is the operator of the block with 90 per cent stake, while Niko has the remaining 10 per cent.
Dhirubhai-1 and 3 gas finds, the two discoveries that are being put into production in the first phase, would start pumping gas by December/January and by 2010 would almost double availability of gas in the country.
The two fields would by mid-2009 produce 40 million standard cubic meters per day of gas, which would be doubled by 2010.
Development plan has been submitted for nine out of the 15 satellite discoveries in the block, Sampson said. "40 additional exploration prospects are being targeted."
Reliance is investing USD 5.2 billion in developing Dhirubhai-1 and 3 discoveries and would pump in an additional USD 3.5 billion to extend the peak output to 7-8 years.
The satellite fields would produce about 25 mmscmd, while another 9 mmscmd gas would be produced from the MA oil field in the same block.
Reliance, last month started producing oil from the MA field and the output is expected to reach 20,000 barrels per day in one month from the current 5,500 bpd. Gas flowing along with the oil is currently being re-injected into the wells and this gas would flow together with Dhirubhai-1 and 3 gas.
Peak oil output of 40,000 bpd from MA would be achieved in 6-8 quarters, he said
...
ril has 40 trillion cubic feet of gas
Posted by : GuestTracked by: 0 Boarder
SOME FEW PEOPLE ARE MISGUIDING ABOUT THE GAS RESERVES that RIL HAS ONLY 4.4 TRILLION CFT BUT THAT IS NOT TRUE, THE CORRECT NEWS IS:---
Reliance gas block has 40 Tcf gas reserves
Sat. October 11, 2008; Posted: 02:51 AM
Do you want to trade professionally? Click here.
New Delhi, Oct 10, 2008 (Asia Pulse Data Source via COMTEX) -- RELDA | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating -- Reliance Industries` prolific D6 block in Krishna Godavari basin off the east coast contains an in-place reserves of 40 Trillion cubic feet, said the firm`s junior partner Niko Resources.
The company has made 20 gas and one oil discovery in the 7,645 sqkm KG-DWN-98/3 or D6 block in deep-sea of Bay of Bengal, said Edward S Sampson, Chairman of Board, President and CEO of Niko in analyst calls.
These discoveries have resulted ...
buy now
Posted by : GuestTracked by: 0 Boarder
i think good time for buy...
RNRL - what the heck?
Posted by : GuestTracked by: 0 Boarder
thanks. RNRL is Rs. 5 face value - just what would be right price to enter - I think it can go to 20-30 level as it has everything in sir - plans for long-term - there is nothing in the near term. Moreover if the gas issue does not go in favour (which is unlikely as mentioned by you) then what will hold its price up....
In reply to:
RNRL - what the heck?
Posted by : bzeebuzz
This piece of info I found on the net and thought worth sharing with fellow boarders. Earlier also I posted the same message but dont know why the MMB moderator didn`t allow to published it.
I have been searching the internet for weeks to find a valuation of the gas that RNRL will be getting.
No analyst has ever bothered to publish a figure about it.
Everybody just seems to a speculating about it. No one has even bothered to calculate the valuations.
Thus I have decided to do a rough estimation.
There are lot of unresolved issues, but still no harm in doing a rough estimation.
Lets starts with the basics.
How much gas is RIL going to give?
According to initial agreement RIL has to give 28 mmscmd for 17 years.
The rate in the initial agreement was fixed at $2.34 per mmbtu.
This may go up to 40 mmscmd under certain conditions.
=================================
mmscmd is "Million Standard Cubic Meter Per Day".
mmbtu is "Million British Thermal Units".
I have explained the terms later in the post.
=================================
Now comes the first uncertainty.
RIL says it cannot supply 28 mmscmd at $2.34 per mmbtu.
This is the main dispute in the court case.
The reasons that RIL gives is
- RIL has only 4.4 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of certified proven reserves (CPR).
So how much is 4.4 TCF?
1 cubic meter = 35.3 cubic feet.
This CPR of RIL reserves = 4400/35.3 billion cubic meter.
= 4400000/35.3 million cubic meter.
= 124645 million cubic meter.
At 28 mmscmd, the reserves will last 4451 days. (12 years).
However, please not that RIL will be supplying to other companies too.
25 mmscmd will be used for RIL`s own use and 12 mmscmd is supposed to go to NTPC.
Thus if RIL has an output of 28+25+12 mmscmd = 65 mmscmd, the reserves will get exhausted in 1917 days (little over 5 years).
So if 4.4 TCF figure is correct, there is no way RIL can supply gas to RNRL for 17 years.
=================================
What is RNRL`s argument?
RNRL has stated that...
=================================
RNRL has applied for gas distribution licenses for Mumbai and NCR.
However, there is a clause in the RIL - RNRL agreement, which does not allow RNRLto use the gas bought for RIL, for any other purpose, except power generation.
I really don`t understand why markets have got excited by RNRL`s gas distribution plans. There is no way Mukesh Ambani will permit RIL`s gas to be used for gas distribution. Even if RNRL has to distribute gas, it will have buy gas from sources other than RIL.
Quote:
The court has observed that the gas supplied by RIL can only be used for power generation, which rules out the gas being used for ADAG`s city gas venture. The court has also observed that RNRL has not indicated any consumption details of the gas.
=================================
there is a very famous proverb..."don`t count your chickens before they hatch..."
I am not interested in paying a price for paper plans.
mining and oil exploration are not easy businesses.
it is not that one can start digging and start selling products from day 1.
these businesses carry a substantial risk of failure. many companies have had to abandon their alloted land/exploration blocks after not finding enough resources to sustain commercial production.
RNRL has not even got any land/exploration block.
RNRL will need lot of cash for acquiring these assets and also for setting up of its gas distribution network. where is all that cash going to come from? the company has near 0 revenues right now. this means it will either have to raise debt and dilute its equity.
I would prefer to bet on businesses with existing revenues and earnings visibility.
RNRL - what the heck?
Posted by : vkk43Tracked by: 0 Boarder
A nice analysis about a share must always be encouraged. Keep it up....
In reply to:
RNRL - what the heck?
Posted by : bzeebuzz
Hello vkk43, thanks for your encouraging words
RNRL - what the heck?
Posted by : bzeebuzzTracked by: 0 Boarder
Hello vkk43, thanks for your encouraging words
...
In reply to:
RNRL - what the heck?
Posted by : vkk43
Very nicely analysed. I agree with your views.
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