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Market Outlook - Short Term
Tracked by: 141 Boarders
Analysis: Obama Treasury choice could calm markets
WASHINGTON – Why aren`t the government bailouts working?
The presidential transition may be adding to the uncertainty roiling the financial markets. In fact, knowing the names on President-elect Barack Obama`s economic team may prove more helpful in calming those stormy markets in the short term than bailout packages that so far haven`t had much payoff.
After two days of steep declines, stocks rallied strongly on Friday — with the Dow Jones industrials surging nearly 500 points — on news that Obama planned to name New York Federal Reserve chief Timothy Geithner to be treasury secretary.
But that came at the end of another very tough week for the economy.
While Obama likes to say there can be but one president at a time, Americans need to know one is fully on the job. While many different things have contributed to the economic panic spreading worldwide, it doesn`t help that the crisis is being played out in the muddled political wilderness of a lame-duck Congress, a departing president and an incoming administration that hasn`t yet been formed.
William Galston, who was a White House domestic policy assistant in President Bill Clinton`s first term, said Obama is likely to "name the economic team together as a package, so people can see how the pieces fit together and how people are likely to work together."
That could come early next week. It could help bring some clarity to the economic strategy picture, and alleviate what markets hate most: uncertainty.
Geithner has been a top player in the current economic crisis — helping Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and his team manage the Wall Street bailout.
"Having a new administration come in with new faces and new ideas and with a Congress which is firmly behind it could restore confidence as quickly as it has evaporated," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody`s Economy . com
"The Bush administration is winding things down and the Obama administration is trying to gear things up. And in the middle of all this, we`ve got this complete collapse of confidence. And there is a vacuum," said Zandi.
Even with the late-day rally, stock market gains of the past decade have been essentially erased. Credit markets that had thawed briefly have frozen again amid widespread fears of a deep and long recession.
Congress, the administration and the Federal Reserve have hurled well over a trillion dollars at the problem. But while Paulson told Congress this week the U.S. had "turned the corner" in averting a financial collapse, there is little evidence that the economy`s downward spiral has been broken.
Obama told CBS` "60 Minutes" in an interview aired last Sunday that, while the government`s big financial bailout program may not have worked as hoped, "things could be worse." But, unless Geithner`s selection can work wonders, there`s little evidence things will be getting much better soon.
Among the mistakes and other reasons cited by economists and financial analysts for why bold steps haven`t had much apparent impact so far:
• Initial market satisfaction with the $700 billion financial bailout passed in October soured after Paulson abandoned his original plan to buy troubled assets from financial institutions and moved to use most of the money instead to invest directly in banks and firms that issue auto, student and credit-card loans. His statement this week that he would leave the final $350 billion of the bailout money for the Obama administration in January raised further uncertainties about the Bush administration`s commitment.
• The steps taken so far have provided little in the way of direct aid to homeowners facing foreclosure or who have lost their homes.
...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
sambala
Obama to Pick Geithner as Treasury Secretary
New York Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy F. Geithner is to be nominated as President-elect Barack Obama`s Treasury secretary, according to a person close to the transition process.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation began calling Geithner confidants this week, starting a vetting process of getting Fed veteran in place almost as soon as Mr. Obama is inaugurated the 44th president.
Mr. Obama plans to introduce his entire economic team early next week, hoping to sooth the roiling financial markets and answer rising pressure on the president-elect to become more involved.
Picking Mr. Geithner gives the new administration someone with a deep, personal experience of handling the crisis. He was central to the government-backed sale of Bear Stearns Cos. in March, the talks before the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September, and the rescue of American International Group Inc. days later. For some, that also may be grounds for criticism.
The decision for the Obama administration rested partly on the question of what the new president wants from his Treasury secretary, and also how much the appointment needs to represent the campaign`s promised "change." Mr. Geithner, young and relatively little-known, in some ways is a break from the recent past. But his role in this year`s bailout complicates that picture.
Other potential candidates included former Clinton Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker and New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executive and former U.S. senator.
Tracked by: 141 Boarders
yea sanju,
its nearly a sucker rally. the atmosphere has not stabilized yet. Nifty touching the Oct lows and even lower cannot be denied.
so trading carefree and thinking that the bulls are in frontline would be like a child playing happily in the lawn while his house is burning behind him.
regards
shakti...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
SANJU786
ONCE AGAIN IT WILL / MAY BE THE ACTION REPLAY OF WHAT HAPPENED TO NIFTY ON 5TH NOV 2008, NIFTY WAS NOT ABLE TO TRADE ABOVE 3260 AND NIFTY EXPESS STARTED ITS DOWNWARD JOURNEY.
THIS MONDAY/TUESDAY IT MAY TRY TO TOUCH 2860 AND NIFTY EXPRESS MAY START ITS JOURNEY TOWARDS SUB 2500 LEVELS.
SANJU :)
Tracked by: 141 Boarders
dear HLN sir,
thanks for the NAV information. i have been a bit active only last 15 days are so. I joined in here to blow whistle to avoid a few scrips.
I dont blame luck or do if`s and buts throughout my life.
I was away during the fall for over three months in USA.
Though i am an IT tech amn for 30 long years i do not like
sending financial trx over nett. Also i do not like to have Demat / banking broking accounts at same company same place.
Nor i like handing out Power of attorney.
Hence i did n`t look at what happened in jan. even if the fall happens and goes to zero it does not affect me as i have well spread investments to take care of rainy days.
This is just another one investment for me and i do know i can realise my values when i need them.
I would definitely be watching your Tech Analysis and guidance.
at appropriate time i amy even call for your services.
May be we can even communicate over personal mail id`s.
Thanks sir. i would be away from the net emails blogs etc for a week on a short vacation , a small trekking expedition.
Regards
honestytrack
...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Dear honestytrack,
It is purely upto mutual fund buyer when to sell and when to
switch. Fund manager cannot do anything to stop the NAV from
falling. They have no authority to switch on their own will.
I had been posting messages here since january 2008 that I see
a serious market crash and Nifty may fall by 40%. Even the name
of the thread above: WILL NIFTY HIT 3600............. started by
me tells the whole story.
Hope I have made myself clear.
Best luck next time
Tracked by: 141 Boarders
Hahah... lol... thats a polar bear.....did you notice any color change..lol...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
Nish
As I was watching the `freak bear` video, every now and then the bear was getting replaced by Shankar Sharma.
Tracked by: 141 Boarders
One thing is sure... Indians have out smarted...fools in west... they saw what was coming this time.... I agree............
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : vtycoon
DOW 500 book profits...per lot profit *580 .. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 8000 is crossed wow wow wow ! dats it INDIA has won :)..dow is takin +ve cues frm india :D
DOW pls get CLOSED,...we would be gr8ful :)
+ anotha thing
FTSE will open 150 points up. n it may go 200++ during intra day ..accc 2 my guess ! lets see...nw
Tracked by: 141 Boarders
Dear BSR,
For me the more important was the FII selling... Expect them to turn net buyers on Monday.
Mad christmas selling will happen for sure, and that is why the index needs to move up to 3300-3500, so the selling can happen at a decent price :-)
Recall the CNBC poll earlier this month - will nov series close above 3000.. 75% said no... The recent poll -will nifty retest the previous lows - 75% said yes :-)
So the writing is on the wall... 3000 will be crossed before expiry in all likelihood... And expect the "bullishness" to return back to the market for the first couple of sessions in the dec series before the mad selling starts.
Regards
...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Dear raj_tibs,
Let us hope for the best!
Let us hope no more X-mas MAD SELLing happens from FIIs now and DIIs continue to BUY more! It is interesting to observe that although there was no support from those DIIs, still the index rose!
FII 21-Nov-2008 1081.08 1786.64 -705.56
DII 21-Nov-2008 814.41 768.19 46.22
Still, Be careful and cautious! A slight miscalculation about those POINTS would result in HEAVY Damages resulting in Nifty around 1750 values!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)...
Tracked by: 141 Boarders
ONCE AGAIN IT WILL / MAY BE THE ACTION REPLAY OF WHAT HAPPENED TO NIFTY ON 5TH NOV 2008, NIFTY WAS NOT ABLE TO TRADE ABOVE 3260 AND NIFTY EXPESS STARTED ITS DOWNWARD JOURNEY.
THIS MONDAY/TUESDAY IT MAY TRY TO TOUCH 2860 AND NIFTY EXPRESS MAY START ITS JOURNEY TOWARDS SUB 2500 LEVELS.
SANJU :)...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : sp.palo
yea BSR,
Good Morning. Instead of your green spots its a green patch in DOW. The currency ratio is improving. In both DOW and NIFty its the last hour trade that boomed.
regards
shakti
Tracked by: 141 Boarders
yea BSR,
Good Morning. Instead of your green spots its a green patch in DOW. The currency ratio is improving. In both DOW and NIFty its the last hour trade that boomed.
regards
shakti...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
BS point: For any shift in the GAME, DOW needs to go above 8100-8200 level!
YEN DOLLAR ratio needs to go above 99!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
Tracked by: 141 Boarders
Dear HLN,
Thanks a lot and you are honestly right that none is perfect. But in trendy markets, analysis works.
regards
shakti ...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Dear shakti,
Every analyst uses his own method of calculation. I don`t use
candlestick charting. So no point of shadow or body. There are
so many ways and none is perfect. But I use Fibonacci retracement
all the time between various levels of resistance and support,
intra-day, short and medium and long term. In fact FIBO numbers
are heart and soul of ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLE
Tracked by: 141 Boarders
As I was watching the `freak bear` video, every now and then the bear was getting replaced by Shankar Sharma. ...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : pkjattking
This is to all you bears out there ...""" sit down now """".... and watch n enjoy this clip on you tube you guys have done enough damage........just type....((((freak Bear in zoo ))))...,,in you tube...ok...lol
Tracked by: 141 Boarders
Obama to Pick Geithner as Treasury Secretary
New York Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy F. Geithner is to be nominated as President-elect Barack Obama`s Treasury secretary, according to a person close to the transition process.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation began calling Geithner confidants this week, starting a vetting process of getting Fed veteran in place almost as soon as Mr. Obama is inaugurated the 44th president.
Mr. Obama plans to introduce his entire economic team early next week, hoping to sooth the roiling financial markets and answer rising pressure on the president-elect to become more involved.
Picking Mr. Geithner gives the new administration someone with a deep, personal experience of handling the crisis. He was central to the government-backed sale of Bear Stearns Cos. in March, the talks before the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September, and the rescue of American International Group Inc. days later. For some, that also may be grounds for criticism.
The decision for the Obama administration rested partly on the question of what the new president wants from his Treasury secretary, and also how much the appointment needs to represent the campaign`s promised "change." Mr. Geithner, young and relatively little-known, in some ways is a break from the recent past. But his role in this year`s bailout complicates that picture.
Other potential candidates included former Clinton Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker and New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executive and former U.S. senator.
...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : sambala
He said worries about marquee companies from General Motors Corp. to Citigroup Inc. are unnerving investors.
"What we`re seeing is these symbols of American business history really suffering and prompting investors to call into question the viability of the system," Ablin said, referring to the functioning of the broader economy.
Investors have grown increasingly anxious this week that losses from souring debt will swamp banks, even those given financial support through the government`s $700 billion rescue plan. Citigroup, in particular, is a concern for Wall Street because the company hasn`t booked a profit in the past four quarters.
As the banking giant`s shares slid below $4, analysts said Friday it may be forced to merge or sell some of its prized businesses. Citigroup has already raised $75 billion in capital this year, including a $25 billion cash investment from the government — and none of it has been enough to muster confidence.
Investors have also worried about the fate of GM, Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC. The heads of the companies, warning that automakers are perilously low on cash, have been asking Washington for $25 billion in loans. But lawmakers have likely put off a vote on whether to extend a lifeline until next month and have asked the automakers for detailed plans about how they would use the money. The prospect of a bankruptcy filing by one or more of the companies has added to Wall Street`s worries about the state of the economy.
Bond prices fell Friday as credit markets eased somewhat following a freeze-up Thursday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, jumped to 3.19 percent from 3.00 percent late Thursday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, rose to 0.02 percent from 0.01 percent late Thursday.
Light, sweet crude for January delivery rose 51 cents to settle at $49.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The dollar fell against other major currencies, while gold prices rose.
Overseas, Japan`s Nikkei stock average jumped 2.70 percent. In European trading, Britain`s FTSE 100 fell 2.43 percent, while Germany`s DAX index fell 2.20 percent, and France`s CAC-40 fell 3.33 percent.
Tracked by: 141 Boarders
He said worries about marquee companies from General Motors Corp. to Citigroup Inc. are unnerving investors.
"What we`re seeing is these symbols of American business history really suffering and prompting investors to call into question the viability of the system," Ablin said, referring to the functioning of the broader economy.
Investors have grown increasingly anxious this week that losses from souring debt will swamp banks, even those given financial support through the government`s $700 billion rescue plan. Citigroup, in particular, is a concern for Wall Street because the company hasn`t booked a profit in the past four quarters.
As the banking giant`s shares slid below $4, analysts said Friday it may be forced to merge or sell some of its prized businesses. Citigroup has already raised $75 billion in capital this year, including a $25 billion cash investment from the government — and none of it has been enough to muster confidence.
Investors have also worried about the fate of GM, Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC. The heads of the companies, warning that automakers are perilously low on cash, have been asking Washington for $25 billion in loans. But lawmakers have likely put off a vote on whether to extend a lifeline until next month and have asked the automakers for detailed plans about how they would use the money. The prospect of a bankruptcy filing by one or more of the companies has added to Wall Street`s worries about the state of the economy.
Bond prices fell Friday as credit markets eased somewhat following a freeze-up Thursday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, jumped to 3.19 percent from 3.00 percent late Thursday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, rose to 0.02 percent from 0.01 percent late Thursday.
Light, sweet crude for January delivery rose 51 cents to settle at $49.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The dollar fell against other major currencies, while gold prices rose.
Overseas, Japan`s Nikkei stock average jumped 2.70 percent. In European trading, Britain`s FTSE 100 fell 2.43 percent, while Germany`s DAX index fell 2.20 percent, and France`s CAC-40 fell 3.33 percent.
...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : sambala
Dow ends up nearly 500 on Geithner treasury report
NEW YORK – Wall Street staged a comeback Friday, with the major indexes jumping more than 5 percent and the Dow Jones industrials surging nearly 500 points. The late afternoon rally ended another volatile week that saw stocks reach six-year lows. Stocks erased about half of the steep losses from Wednesday and Thursday, as investors got an unexpected jolt of confidence following an NBC News report that President-elect Barack Obama plans to name New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geithner as Treasury secretary.
Investors have been looking for a clear message from Obama on who will lead his economic brain trust at a time when the country is facing its biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression. In addition, some on Wall Street have grown frustrated with outgoing Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson over his handling of the government`s effort to rescue the banking system.
"Something needed to be done on the economy," said Ben Halliburton, chief investment officer at Tradition Capital Management. "The fact that they`ve got the team together, maybe that is going to shorten the period of indecision."
A senior Democratic official familiar with the deliberations confirmed to The Associated Press that Geithner is likely to be named as Treasury secretary. The official requested anonymity because the nomination hasn`t been formally announced.
The advance in stocks also came as the FDIC said it would guarantee up to $1.4 trillion in U.S. banks` debt for more than three years as part of the government`s financial rescue plan. The directors of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. voted Friday to approve the plan, which is meant to break the crippling logjam in bank-to-bank lending.
Stocks fluctuated throughout most of trading Friday, as fresh concerns over the stability of the financial sector prevented the market from establishing any sustainable gains. But stocks moved sharply higher in the final half hour after the report on Geithner.
The Dow rose 494.13 points, or 6.54 percent, to settle at 8,046.42. The Standard & Poor`s 500 index jumped 47.59, or 6.32 percent, to 800.03, and the Nasdaq composite advanced 68.23, or 5.18 percent, to 1,384.35.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 21.23, or 5.51 percent, to 406.54.
Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 2.37 billion shares.
With the steep pullbacks earlier this week, the Dow began Friday`s session down 43.1 percent this year, while the S&P 500 index — a benchmark for the overall U.S. stock market — was down 48.8 percent. The Nasdaq composite index had lost 50.4 percent this year.
And despite Friday`s gains, stocks are still down sharply for the week. The Dow has lost 5.31 percent, while the S&P 500 fell 8.39 percent and the Nasdaq lost 8.74 percent. Paper losses for the week in U.S. stocks came to $1 trillion, according to the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index, which reflects nearly all stocks traded in America.
In the two previous days, the Dow had lost a staggering 873 points, more than 10 percent of its value, and the broader Standard & Poor`s 500 index had sunk to its lowest level since 1997.
Still, Friday`s rally sets up the potential for more gains going forward, analysts said.
"I think we`re clearly set up for some sort of relief rally," Halliburton said. "People have been holding their breath for a relief rally for weeks. Unfortunately, most of the rallies have been short-lived."
But while the cloud of uncertainty surrounding Obama`s economic team has been removed, there are still plenty of unknowns facing the market.
As a result, volatility will remain a major force on Wall Street for some time to come, said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago.
CONT.....
Tracked by: 141 Boarders
Dow ends up nearly 500 on Geithner treasury report
NEW YORK – Wall Street staged a comeback Friday, with the major indexes jumping more than 5 percent and the Dow Jones industrials surging nearly 500 points. The late afternoon rally ended another volatile week that saw stocks reach six-year lows. Stocks erased about half of the steep losses from Wednesday and Thursday, as investors got an unexpected jolt of confidence following an NBC News report that President-elect Barack Obama plans to name New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geithner as Treasury secretary.
Investors have been looking for a clear message from Obama on who will lead his economic brain trust at a time when the country is facing its biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression. In addition, some on Wall Street have grown frustrated with outgoing Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson over his handling of the government`s effort to rescue the banking system.
"Something needed to be done on the economy," said Ben Halliburton, chief investment officer at Tradition Capital Management. "The fact that they`ve got the team together, maybe that is going to shorten the period of indecision."
A senior Democratic official familiar with the deliberations confirmed to The Associated Press that Geithner is likely to be named as Treasury secretary. The official requested anonymity because the nomination hasn`t been formally announced.
The advance in stocks also came as the FDIC said it would guarantee up to $1.4 trillion in U.S. banks` debt for more than three years as part of the government`s financial rescue plan. The directors of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. voted Friday to approve the plan, which is meant to break the crippling logjam in bank-to-bank lending.
Stocks fluctuated throughout most of trading Friday, as fresh concerns over the stability of the financial sector prevented the market from establishing any sustainable gains. But stocks moved sharply higher in the final half hour after the report on Geithner.
The Dow rose 494.13 points, or 6.54 percent, to settle at 8,046.42. The Standard & Poor`s 500 index jumped 47.59, or 6.32 percent, to 800.03, and the Nasdaq composite advanced 68.23, or 5.18 percent, to 1,384.35.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 21.23, or 5.51 percent, to 406.54.
Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 2.37 billion shares.
With the steep pullbacks earlier this week, the Dow began Friday`s session down 43.1 percent this year, while the S&P 500 index — a benchmark for the overall U.S. stock market — was down 48.8 percent. The Nasdaq composite index had lost 50.4 percent this year.
And despite Friday`s gains, stocks are still down sharply for the week. The Dow has lost 5.31 percent, while the S&P 500 fell 8.39 percent and the Nasdaq lost 8.74 percent. Paper losses for the week in U.S. stocks came to $1 trillion, according to the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index, which reflects nearly all stocks traded in America.
In the two previous days, the Dow had lost a staggering 873 points, more than 10 percent of its value, and the broader Standard & Poor`s 500 index had sunk to its lowest level since 1997.
Still, Friday`s rally sets up the potential for more gains going forward, analysts said.
"I think we`re clearly set up for some sort of relief rally," Halliburton said. "People have been holding their breath for a relief rally for weeks. Unfortunately, most of the rallies have been short-lived."
But while the cloud of uncertainty surrounding Obama`s economic team has been removed, there are still plenty of unknowns facing the market.
As a result, volatility will remain a major force on Wall Street for some time to come, said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago.
CONT.....
...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : sambala
Stocks rally on Treasury Secretary report
Wall Streeters hail reports that Barack Obama has chosen Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary.
NEW YORK -- Stocks rallied Friday, with the Dow industrials jumping as much as 493 points on reports that President-elect Barack Obama has picked NY Fed Bank president Timothy Geithner as his new Treasury Secretary.
Tracked by: 141 Boarders
Vtycoon ,
Absoultely right. FTSE will go higher as it fell and closed down 2% as Dow was struggling. Now Dow soared so they will recover that 2% and + the cues frm us fut on monday and asia.
8k achived HURRAYYYYYYYY...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : vtycoon
DOW 500 book profits...per lot profit *580 .. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 8000 is crossed wow wow wow ! dats it INDIA has won :)..dow is takin +ve cues frm india :D
DOW pls get CLOSED,...we would be gr8ful :)
+ anotha thing
FTSE will open 150 points up. n it may go 200++ during intra day ..accc 2 my guess ! lets see...nw
Tracked by: 141 Boarders
Stocks rally on Treasury Secretary report
Wall Streeters hail reports that Barack Obama has chosen Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary.
NEW YORK -- Stocks rallied Friday, with the Dow industrials jumping as much as 493 points on reports that President-elect Barack Obama has picked NY Fed Bank president Timothy Geithner as his new Treasury Secretary.
...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : sambala
Major U.S. indexes up 3%-4%
Bulls light up Wall St.
473 POINTS
