Online
| Post a Message | Explore Forums | Browse Stock Messages | Hot Discussions | Top rated Messages | Top Boarders | |
|
|
|
You are here : Moneycontrol  MMB Market View |
| The latest messages in different topics under Market View are displayed on this page |
Market View
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
As suggested in my previous writings, the government has gone ahead and reduced the CRR.
However, it will not work – at best it will result in relief rally in stock exchanges.
This kind of piece meal approach will not work. It did not work with US government for the last one year.
The government needs to do the following SIMULTANEOUSLY :-
- Reduce CRR to 4%.
- Cut bank bank rates 7%
- Cut SLR to 22% now and to 20% in another 4 weeks
- Unlimited protection to bank deposit for next 3 years.
- Increase spending in infrastructure - start announcing projects and start talking about upcoming spending
- Guarantee interbank loans - otherwise CRR cut will not work.
- Be ready to provide finance to private companies in trouble, using one of the many government arms
- We are at two more risk - in terms of flight of capital :-
a) Current account deficit - our creditors worldwide are facing a liquidity crunch - likely to call in the money or not roll over the debt – this kind of thing has had lead to massive crisis in the past in countries across the world.
b) Developed economies will withdraw cash parked in India in equities and other assets - if not tackled properly this will lead to a asset/ securities meltdown in India
This flow of capital will need to to be managed (more thoughts on this later)
Government has to launch a massive co-ordinated and sustained attack on the problem facing our economy and not throw one pebble at a time if it`s measures are to have any impact.
Irrespective of the Government does, we are very likely to hit 5% GDP. If the government acts fast and decisively, sub 5% levels can be avoided....
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Vam,
The nifty trin is quite healthy at 0.3, but i wont trade now coz of my losses in the recent past. This is just for ur information. THE TRIN is healthy for us... but i am not taking cues solely from TRIN. So this rally is being bought not sold into. Please dont take any cues from my post coz my trades went wrong last four times and i lost 20K. Good luck....
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by :
radhika_nandlal
I have 2 4200 CE at Rs 48... thats a loss of Rs 4800 and in the beginnign of october i played intraday and lost some money... so i am waiting for the right put or call after market direction becomes clear to make good these losses... until then i cannot touch the rest of my capital.... lets see if i can get some cheap calls or puts if i have a strong hunch about market direction.. right now i feel at best it will consolidate and at worst it can fall, but going up i doubt. 
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
next turn will of indian economy and it will definitely go into slowdown and it will be severe slowdown and can last long if it happens. Thus despite having assurances from finance ministry, there is no certainty of GDP growth remaining higher. These finance ministers remains dishonest to the common people. Slowdown in the growth is visible. It may come little later. But it will definitely come in India also. Next question mark will be on indian property market which on the brink of collapse. And in such collapse which bank will loose, obviously ICICI Bank which will be exposed to the reality crack as they have given agressive home loans which will not be adequately secured. Customers whose loan outstanding exceed the market value of the property will stop repaying the loan and give the property to the bank for reposession which will not give good market price for bank because rates in such senario will crack further because of oversupply and it will be worst for banking stocks. Thus banking stocks are most dangerous in case of slowdown ans there will not be any downward limit for these stocks. If anything is wrong in the above assessment, please point out
regards...
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by : marketman
We have been listening indian growth stories for few years.... our financial markets too witnessed the same trend till recently.... our policy makers repeatedly assuring the investors about the strongness of indian economy.... they are saying india is immune to world financial crisis....
But indian financial markets too collapsing along with the global cues.... almost all investors and many corporates are already in deep troubles.... few are doubting at some pvt sector banks for their suspicious behaviour....
We are also part of globe,india is not from any other planet.... this common logic is ignored by our policy makers and talking nonsenses on daily basis to confuse/mislead the indian investors aswell as indian public....
Atleast the chiefs of global economy taking few steps to control the situation,we havnot seen any types of mesures or useful decisions so far in india.... already stock markets fell more than 50% from their peaks within few months.... banks are struggling for survival,many corporates facing liquidty problem,few companies at the threshold of removing employees from payrolls,experts epecting subprime type issues may occur soon in india too.... interestingly indian rupee is weaken much within short span of time....
By seeing/experiencing all these ill effects,even patriotic indians doubting about the situation of economy in the country.... few people asking questions like Is indian economy too collapsing?!
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
As suggested in my previous writings, the government has gone ahead and reduced the CRR.
However, it will not work – at best it will result in relief rally in stock exchanges.
This kind of piece meal approach will not work. It did not work with US government for the last one year.
The government needs to do the following SIMULTANEOUSLY :-
- Reduce CRR to 4%.
- Cut bank bank rates 7%
- Cut SLR to 22% now and to 20% in another 4 weeks
- Unlimited protection to bank deposit for next 3 years.
- Increase spending in infrastructure - start announcing projects and start talking about upcoming spending
- Guarantee interbank loans - otherwise CRR cut will not work.
- Be ready to provide finance to private companies in trouble, using one of the many government arms
- We are at two more risk - in terms of flight of capital :-
a) Current account deficit - our creditors worldwide are facing a liquidity crunch - likely to call in the money or not roll over the debt – this kind of thing has had lead to massive crisis in the past in countries across the world.
b) Developed economies will withdraw cash parked in India in equities and other assets - if not tackled properly this will lead to a asset/ securities meltdown in India
This flow of capital will need to to be managed (more thoughts on this later)
Government has to launch a massive co-ordinated and sustained attack on the problem facing our economy and not throw one pebble at a time if it`s measures are to have any impact.
Irrespective of the Government does, we are very likely to hit 5% GDP. If the government acts fast and decisively, sub 5% levels can be avoided....
In reply to:
Markets to be volatile yet flat today
Posted by : Udayan Mukherjee
The global markets are tepid. The Indian markets maybe volatile yet flat today. The weekend was quite with no major news and there may be a slight bounce in the market today. If there s no bounce back this week things will get worse going forward.
Here is a verbatim transcript of Udayan's comments on CNBC TV18. Also see the accompanying video
This is an important week. Last week was a disaster 15% down that’s how much our markets lost. Over the weekend there have been some rumblings from the G7 countries on a bigger package, which could be coming and this week you’ll look forward to that. In any case the global markets are somewhat more tepid, the US cut some of its intra-day losses on Friday and this morning Asia is a bit of a mixed bag, some markets are down, some markets are up so you don’t know what quite to make of it. But over the next few days it might still be quite volatile and jerky depending on policy action that we see, so big one coming up.
No taking away from the fact that last week was a whitewash and psychologically probably pushed a lot of people against the wall?
Pushed against the wall is right. It was really such a terrible week for the market. This week is going to be important one, I don’t know how trade starts off today because you have the baggage of the Friday closing not too much happened over the weekend. I don’t know whether the market will focus on the kind of mixed mood that is prevailing in global markets today or it will focus on the fact that we had a big bounce back from the lows of the day on the Dow indicating that there is some more help which is coming from global markets.
It is a little difficult to decipher; today it might be one of those volatile, yet flattish kind of day, all over the place but eventually not going anywhere significant, it could play out like that. But again you want to believe that after a 15% fall last week given the prospect of more regulatory action this week, you probably could see a little bit of a bounce. I have difficulty saying or pronouncing the word ’bounce’ nowadays but one lives on hope.
What makes it so important, the fact that the market got so oversold almost or is it that we might be prime for everything that can be done, will be done sort of regulatory action?
The later I suspect, I think over the weekend the kind of noise that one heard from the regulators in the West is they have pretty much come around to accepting the situation as it is, which is to say if we don’t something we have had it. So basically just go out, don’t think about moral hazards and tax payers money just get the credit market working once again, and I think you have seen the first signs of that coming in from Australia. I suspect you will see much more of that over the next 24 to 48 hours; it has to happen. They cannot delay this any longer and you could almost sense that they have got a sense of urgency right now. I think the concerted regulatory action, much that you can scoff it by saying, “Big deal, they did a bailout package first and then they cut rates again, precious little it did for the stock markets.”
But at some point they have got to do something, which get the credit markets working and I suspect you will see some material moves along those lines in the next 24 to 48 hours, which will probably drive home the message that in the near-term the panic needs to ebb a little bit. That may be the starting point of a little bit of a rebound in the market. Still remain extremely cautious about the medium-term, because this will not fix a lot of world’s problems.
In the near-term, I suspect that it could lift the mood. But that makes it a really big week for the market. If by the end of this week you don’t have a rebound in global markets, then I suspect we are in for a really bad time going forward. As in you will probably see things that you have never expected to see, if you haven’t already. But I think in the next five days you will see some action, which will come as a bit of a succor to the market.
Asian Indices:
Asia is a bit mixed this morning some are down, some are up. A couple of markets like Hang Seng and Korea have moved up a couple of percentage points, it’s China which is in difficulty and Taiwan is not looking particularly strong either.
-Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor,CNBC TV18
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
As suggested in my previous writings, the government has gone ahead and reduced the CRR.
However, it will not work – at best it will result in relief rally in stock exchanges.
This kind of piece meal approach will not work. It did not work with US government for the last one year.
The government needs to do the following SIMULTANEOUSLY :-
- Reduce CRR to 4%.
- Cut bank bank rates 7%
- Cut SLR to 22% now and to 20% in another 4 weeks
- Unlimited protection to bank deposit for next 3 years.
- Increase spending in infrastructure - start announcing projects and start talking about upcoming spending
- Guarantee interbank loans - otherwise CRR cut will not work.
- Be ready to provide finance to private companies in trouble, using one of the many government arms
- We are at two more risk - in terms of flight of capital :-
a) Current account deficit - our creditors worldwide are facing a liquidity crunch - likely to call in the money or not roll over the debt – this kind of thing has had lead to massive crisis in the past in countries across the world.
b) Developed economies will withdraw cash parked in India in equities and other assets - if not tackled properly this will lead to a asset/ securities meltdown in India
This flow of capital will need to to be managed (more thoughts on this later)
Government has to launch a massive co-ordinated and sustained attack on the problem facing our economy and not throw one pebble at a time if it`s measures are to have any impact.
Irrespective of the Government does, we are very likely to hit 5% GDP. If the government acts fast and decisively, sub 5% levels can be avoided.
...
In reply to:
Will the government bite the bullet?
Posted by :
Amar Harolikar
Will the government bite the bullet
-----------------------------------
India is following US with a 6 month lag. Fortunately we don`t have the kind of credit crisis that US is facing now .
Nevertheless, growth would be significantly impacted across sectors. GDP to go down to sub 5% levels. Profit hit for nearly all Nifty scrips, with some going into losses.
However., we do have a liquidity crunch similar to the US, though not so bad. Unless the government acts fast, Indian credit markets risk a shutdown and the economy risks going into a recession/ near recession.
US Government stayed on the sidelines for too long. The bailout and the rate cuts should have come around beginning of this year.
Though we have very competent economist at the helm (and I have a great personal regards for them) , still the Indian government is also doing exactly the same thing as the US government did 6 months back - stay on the sidelines , take half hearted measures and provide optimistic sound bytes.
Government to immediately do the following if we are to avoid a recession / near recession (significant slowdown is now certain) :-
Immediate cut in CRR to 6% and to 4% in a months time. Will infuse liquidity. Also cut bank rates by 2% to 7% and SLR by 5% to 20% in a staggered fashion over 4 to 6 weeks.
Unlimited protection of savings in banks for the next two years without limit. Will create confidence for account holders and avoid a run on banks
Increase spending in Infrastructure. To boost incomes, GDP and keep economy in track
Yes, inflation will increase, but a recession/ near recession will be staved of.
Will the government bit the bullet with elections not so far away. US government did not do it 6 months back. Now with its back to the wall, election or no elections , it has just no choice.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
I have 2 4200 CE at Rs 48... thats a loss of Rs 4800 and in the beginnign of october i played intraday and lost some money... so i am waiting for the right put or call after market direction becomes clear to make good these losses... until then i cannot touch the rest of my capital.... lets see if i can get some cheap calls or puts if i have a strong hunch about market direction.. right now i feel at best it will consolidate and at worst it can fall, but going up i doubt....
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by : vam_aru
Dear RN,
Yes I have Bajaj Hindustan ( 900 at 130 rs ), I think i will take another 1000 baj hin by next week. where did you lost 20 K, I thought you were with PUTS
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Oct.13)
Nifty Future FMP 3410, first support 3390 ......... below 3380 one may expect 3350-3310 on
the downside. Upside it faces resistance at 3490 levels ............ regards flashstock05
...
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear RN,
Yes I have Bajaj Hindustan ( 900 at 130 rs ), I think i will take another 1000 baj hin by next week. where did you lost 20 K, I thought you were with PUTS...
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
I lost 20K in the last four trades and have now become impotent as far as trading goes.. dont want to lose again.. even alex says if you lose as a trader keep out for sometime... these markets are difficult to play.. did u buy bajaj hindustan?
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
US Markets futures are at 296 points higher,
Check out the link below.
http: //money.cnn. com/data/premarket/index.html...
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
BUT US market futures one can see only at 12:30 pm where did u find it.. i thought those futures begin quoting at 12:30 pm....can u give the link
REMEMBER NYSE TRIN is at 17... thats very bearish.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
CHIDAMBARAM:
We Don`t Take A View On Rupee, Rupee Will Find Its Own Level
Coordinated Action Will Yield Results
Govt, Rbi And Sebi Are Coordinating On An Hourly Basis
Confident Economy Will Emerge Stronger
If Necesssary Will Make Further Statement Today
Deposits In Banks Are Safe
He Said Working On More Measures To Improve Liquidity
Will Respond Swiftly According To Needs Of Situation
Crude, Commodity Price Fall To Have Beneficial Impact On Inflation
Services Sector Growing At Brisk Rate
Ratio Of Investment To Gdp Remains High Above 35 Pct Q1 2008/09
...
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
The global markets are tepid. The Indian markets maybe volatile yet flat today. The weekend was quite with no major news and there may be a slight bounce in the market today. If there s no bounce back this week things will get worse going forward.
Here is a verbatim transcript of Udayan's comments on CNBC TV18. Also see the accompanying video
This is an important week. Last week was a disaster 15% down that’s how much our markets lost. Over the weekend there have been some rumblings from the G7 countries on a bigger package, which could be coming and this week you’ll look forward to that. In any case the global markets are somewhat more tepid, the US cut some of its intra-day losses on Friday and this morning Asia is a bit of a mixed bag, some markets are down, some markets are up so you don’t know what quite to make of it. But over the next few days it might still be quite volatile and jerky depending on policy action that we see, so big one coming up.
No taking away from the fact that last week was a whitewash and psychologically probably pushed a lot of people against the wall?
Pushed against the wall is right. It was really such a terrible week for the market. This week is going to be important one, I don’t know how trade starts off today because you have the baggage of the Friday closing not too much happened over the weekend. I don’t know whether the market will focus on the kind of mixed mood that is prevailing in global markets today or it will focus on the fact that we had a big bounce back from the lows of the day on the Dow indicating that there is some more help which is coming from global markets.
It is a little difficult to decipher; today it might be one of those volatile, yet flattish kind of day, all over the place but eventually not going anywhere significant, it could play out like that. But again you want to believe that after a 15% fall last week given the prospect of more regulatory action this week, you probably could see a little bit of a bounce. I have difficulty saying or pronouncing the word ’bounce’ nowadays but one lives on hope.
What makes it so important, the fact that the market got so oversold almost or is it that we might be prime for everything that can be done, will be done sort of regulatory action?
The later I suspect, I think over the weekend the kind of noise that one heard from the regulators in the West is they have pretty much come around to accepting the situation as it is, which is to say if we don’t something we have had it. So basically just go out, don’t think about moral hazards and tax payers money just get the credit market working once again, and I think you have seen the first signs of that coming in from Australia. I suspect you will see much more of that over the next 24 to 48 hours; it has to happen. They cannot delay this any longer and you could almost sense that they have got a sense of urgency right now. I think the concerted regulatory action, much that you can scoff it by saying, “Big deal, they did a bailout package first and then they cut rates again, precious little it did for the stock markets.”
But at some point they have got to do something, which get the credit markets working and I suspect you will see some material moves along those lines in the next 24 to 48 hours, which will probably drive home the message that in the near-term the panic needs to ebb a little bit. That may be the starting point of a little bit of a rebound in the market. Still remain extremely cautious about the medium-term, because this will not fix a lot of world’s problems.
In the near-term, I suspect that it could lift the mood. But that makes it a really big week for the market. If by the end of this week you don’t have a rebound in global markets, then I suspect we are in for a really bad time going forward. As in you will probably see things that you have never expected to see, if you haven’t already. But I think in the next five days you will see some action, which will come as a bit of a succor to the market.
Asian Indices:
Asia is a bit mixed this morning some are down, some are up. A couple of markets like Hang Seng and Korea have moved up a couple of percentage points, it’s China which is in difficulty and Taiwan is not looking particularly strong either.
-Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor,CNBC TV18...
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
I lost 20K in the last four trades and have now become impotent as far as trading goes.. dont want to lose again.. even alex says if you lose as a trader keep out for sometime... these markets are difficult to play.. did u buy bajaj hindustan?...
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by : vam_aru
I think today one can go long for the 100 point upmove, Europe and USA futures show a significant upmove.. now..
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
BUT US market futures one can see only at 12:30 pm where did u find it.. i thought those futures begin quoting at 12:30 pm....can u give the link
REMEMBER NYSE TRIN is at 17... thats very bearish....
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by : vam_aru
I think today one can go long for the 100 point upmove, Europe and USA futures show a significant upmove.. now..
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
I think today one can go long for the 100 point upmove, Europe and USA futures show a significant upmove.. now.....
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
Vam,
Not such a convincingly great opening isnt it? I mean is there any strength in the market? lol
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Stock-picking, or even deciding whether to stick with equities or not, has never been more difficult. However, if you are still looking at stocks, there are four things you have to avoid. In fact, these can come handy at all times:
(1) Don’t give in to market moods
Stocks are not about growth and profits of corporates alone. They also reflect the mood of the economy and investors. Due to this, markets have a tendency to slip into the extremes of both downside and upside.
When the Sensex was at 21,000, ‘value’ was the least significant factor for many investors as they wanted to be part of the euphoria. As a result, many invested in stocks which had three-digit PE (price to earnings) ratio. The situation now is completely different with few stocks commanding PE ratios of more than 20.
Still, if you have invested in equity with a long-term perspective, and if you are not in need of funds, don’t resort to selling in line with market mood. Stay calm and focused.
(2) Don’t drop long-term goals
The phrase ‘long-term’ has been acquiring a new meaning these days. Investors who entered equity to build corpus over the long-term have changed tracks just because the markets have come under pressure.
If you are an investor with a pre-defined asset allocation towards equity, stick to your portfolio.
Also, remember that equity may have provided 40-50 per cent returns at regular intervals, but the returns actually average out to 15-18 per cent over the long-term due to intermittent corrections.
Still, annualised returns of more than 15 per cent over a period of 10-20 years help beat inflation and build a corpus for long-term needs.
3) Don’t just buy to ‘average’
A lot of people around you must be talking about this being an opportunity to ‘average’ out your share price. But you can’t afford to fall in love with a stock.
If you have invested in a momentum stock hoping to get quick returns, and if that stock has fallen below your purchase price, booking losses may be a better option than going in for additional purchases.
Reducing the average price through fresh purchase may be a good strategy under normal circumstances, but not in the present bear market.
(4) Don’t take stocks for short-term
Equity should never be an option for short-term goals, irrespective of the market mood. The stock markets are always volatile and can wipe away a good portion of capital in the short-term.
Besides capital, equity requires a staying power and, hence, is not the best option if you are dependent on the corpus in the short-term.
Courtesy: Mumbai Mirror
...
