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Aban Offshore
Buy Aban Offshore, target of Rs 5555: Hem
Posted by :
lion-&-tigerTracked by: 1 Boarder
Hi Jagpreet, The following informations are for your knowledge.. please keep in mind they were gathered during May 2008. That time the value was Rs.4131... now it down by more than 44.75% - Keeping this also in mind please read the report =
CMP Rs. 4131.00 CMP to-day (21.08.2008): Rs.2282.50 (Loss 44.75%)
At CMP of Rs 4,131 the stock is trading at a P/E multiple of around 8.1x and 6.9x FY09E and FY10E respectively compared to international average of 12.6x and 10.5x on CY08E and CY09E. We believe the stock should trade at 9x FY10 estimated earnings of Rs583. We recommend a BUY with a target price of Rs 5,247, an upside of 29.6%.
Aban well poised to leverage on industry dynamics:
Aban Offshore Ltd (Aban) has been a key player in the Indian offshore rig market. With the acquisition of Sinvest, it has entered into the big league of international players and will now have a global presence. Along with Sinvest, it will have 22 rigs by the end of FY09. Recently, Aban has been able to take substantial hikes in day rates and six more assets are due for renewal in the next 10 months. Also, addition of assets to the fleet will fuel volume growth.
Valuation summary:
Period to FY07 FY08E FY09E FY10E
(Rs mn) (12) (12) (12) (12)
Revenues 7,187 25,788 49,827 57,205
yoy growth (%) 46.6 258.8 93.2 14.8
Oper.Pro 3,474 16,183 35,209 39,428
OPM (%) 48.3 62.8 70.7 68.9
PAT -344 4,065 19,123 22,386
yoy growth (%) - - 370.4 17.1
EPS (Rs) -9.3 105.9 498 583
P/E (x) - 38.2 8.1 6.9
P/BV (x) 28.1 17.9 5.9 3.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 70.4 15.9 6.7 5.5
ROE (%) - 46.8 73.1 48.2
ROCE (%) 1.4 7.1 20.2 21.5
Global peer comparison:
OPM (%) P/E EV/EBIDTA
CY08E CY09E CY08E CY09E CY08E CY09E
Diamond Offshore 64 65.3 13.6 11.3 7.2 6
Noble Corp 63 64.3 11.2 9.5 5.9 5.1
Ensco International 65.2 63.8 9.5 8.9 5.4 5.1
Pride International 46.7 47.3 13.1 11.4 5.7 5
Hercules Offshore 46.3 49.8 18.6 12.7 6.8 4.7
Rowan Companies 39.7 40.6 10.1 8.8 5.3 4.6
Transocean 56.8 58.2 11.4 9.7 8.1 7.1
Nabros Industries 34.2 35.5 13.2 11.5 7 6
Average 52 53.1 12.6 10.5 6.4 5.4
Aban Offshore # 70.7 68.9 7.9 6.8 6.6 5.4
===========================================================
My dear friend, We cannot compare ONGC with ABAN - ONGC is suffering from the huge loss due subsidised petro products - this is not in ABAN.
ONGC is oil company - ABAN is rig operator.
Many other differences are there.
Regards.
...
In reply to:
Buy Aban Offshore, target of Rs 5555: Hem
Posted by :
jagpreet
i agree that this stock is available at 52 week low as compared to all other peers like ongc and ril whose price is near to 3/4 th of 52 week high and i was also thinking of putting it in pocket with long term view ,but my dear friend if ongc market cap,profit,sales is 1000 times more than aban and is now available at discount below (1000 rs)that means we will be able to accumulate 2.2 shares of ongc against 1 of aban ,and if ongc shoots on increasing oil price the profit will be double on each share ,moreover the aban is going on rights issue of 1000 cr which will again decrease its share price so kindly have a relook over this share 
Buy Aban Offshore, target of Rs 5555: Hem
Posted by : jagpreetTracked by: 1 Boarder
i agree that this stock is available at 52 week low as compared to all other peers like ongc and ril whose price is near to 3/4 th of 52 week high and i was also thinking of putting it in pocket with long term view ,but my dear friend if ongc market cap,profit,sales is 1000 times more than aban and is now available at discount below (1000 rs)that means we will be able to accumulate 2.2 shares of ongc against 1 of aban ,and if ongc shoots on increasing oil price the profit will be double on each share ,moreover the aban is going on rights issue of 1000 cr which will again decrease its share price so kindly have a relook over this share ...
In reply to:
Buy Aban Offshore, target of Rs 5555: Hem
Posted by : lion-&-tiger
Dear Girn,
I understand your position - even to me, it is not possible to accumulate beyond certain limit. But, I am convinced that with some reliable information that some one is accumulating. And the brokers using the market trend to hammer it and buy it at cheap. Tell who is ready to sell this gem below 2300??? The transactions you are seeing may be just circular trades to create shock in the minds of small investors. I am a longterm investor as for as this stock is concerned. A good stock available at throw away price. Compare PE multiples of this stock, with it's peers.Therefore I never mind if its market value is temporarily down. It does not make any difference to me. Morever, I take very nominal risk which is manageable to me.
Another stock I am watching SUVEN life sciences. It is another Glenmark in the making. I will buy it once it is available at Rs.22 or below.
These are value buying transactions.
Regards
Buy Aban Offshore, target of Rs 5555: Hem
Posted by : lion-&-tigerTracked by: 1 Boarder
Dear Girn,
I understand your position - even to me, it is not possible to accumulate beyond certain limit. But, I am convinced that with some reliable information that some one is accumulating. And the brokers using the market trend to hammer it and buy it at cheap. Tell who is ready to sell this gem below 2300??? The transactions you are seeing may be just circular trades to create shock in the minds of small investors. I am a longterm investor as for as this stock is concerned. A good stock available at throw away price. Compare PE multiples of this stock, with it's peers.Therefore I never mind if its market value is temporarily down. It does not make any difference to me. Morever, I take very nominal risk which is manageable to me.
Another stock I am watching SUVEN life sciences. It is another Glenmark in the making. I will buy it once it is available at Rs.22 or below.
These are value buying transactions.
Regards...
In reply to:
Buy Aban Offshore, target of Rs 5555: Hem
Posted by :
girin
If a person has deep pocket then he can keep buying at every dip.....not for folks like me... Today it has touched another landmark of less than 2300...wait for the crash... it is hitting 1900 for SURE !!!! ....BUY the stock then....
Buy Aban Offshore, target of Rs 5555: Hem
Posted by : krmanish007Tracked by: 1 Boarder
Aban Offshore Ltd., formerly Aban Loyd Chiles Offshore Limited, is an offshore oil and gas drilling company. During the fiscal year ended March 31, 2007 (fiscal 2007), the Company owned and operated 19 offshore drilling assets and one floating production unit (including two bare boat charters). The Company has two business segments: Offshore Oil Drilling and Production services, and Wind Power generation. Drilling services cover the drilling of exploration wells, appraisal wells and production wells. The Company�s customer�s include ONGC, Royal Dutch Shell, Hardy Exploration and Production, Oriental Oil Co(Dubai), Petronas, Hindustan Oil Exploration Company, Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation, Exxon Mobil, Addax Petroleum and Pioneer Natural Resources etc. The Company has installed and operates 165 wind energy generators at Nagercoil, Tamil Nadu, India. During fiscal 2007, the Company acquired Sinvest ASA. Aban offshore`s Q1FY09 excellent performance was overshadowed by the negative surprises in the FY2008 consolidated numbers. The FY2008 preexceptional consolidated net profit after minority interest of Rs 3.8 billion was 17% lower than broking houses expectation of Rs 4.5 billion. The reported net profit of Rs 1.2 billion includes Rs 1.9 billion of exchange differences on reinstatement of foreign currency debt and Rs 600 million impairment of assets. Both these items are one time in nature and broking house have treated this as extraordinary. The consolidated revenues at Rs 20.2 billion though recording a 181% yoy growth, was below broking houses expectation primarily because of delay in operationalisation of some rigs. Consolidated EBIDTA was 22% lower than broking houses expectation on account of higher than expected employee cost and also other expenditure. Consolidated balance sheet shows a total Debt of Rs 130 billion which is significantly higher than broking house expectations. Q1FY09 standalone net profit at Rs 715 million is ahead of expectations of Rs 652 million mainly driven by lower interest charge and higher other income.We advise you to accumulate the stock with a long term view....
In reply to:
Buy Aban Offshore, target of Rs 5555: Hem
Posted by : christo.invest
Aban Offshore - Oil drilling & Exploration
Go ahead and invest in it...
detailed post: financialhub(dot)in/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=1652
Is Aban is Going Down to 2100? :(
Posted by : girinTracked by: 2 Boarders
You have bought at good price ???....I doubt...buy when the stock touches 1900...
In reply to:
Is Aban is Going Down to 2100? :(
Posted by :
Guest
You have already bought 50 shares at a very good price so i would suggest you to wait before taking fresh exposure. There were couple of bad news related with Aban Offshore but that has already been taken into account due to which it took the beating and was hitting all time lows.
I believe that the downside now is pretty much restricted however if the market crashes and goes down substantially you may see 2000-2100 level and that would again be a good time to accumulate more shares.
It\\`s just matter of time before it will start moving up and as suggested by analysts the first target is 2900 and then 3700 is also a possibility.
About bonus I am not sure but I think it is a strong contender looking at the price at which it is trading so I will not rule out the possibility but can\\`t say when, though it will boost the share price for sure.
Hope above comment helps !!.
Buy Aban Offshore, target of Rs 5555: Hem
Posted by : girinTracked by: 1 Boarder
If a person has deep pocket then he can keep buying at every dip.....not for folks like me... Today it has touched another landmark of less than 2300...wait for the crash... it is hitting 1900 for SURE !!!! ....BUY the stock then.......
In reply to:
Buy Aban Offshore, target of Rs 5555: Hem
Posted by : lion-&-tiger
Hi girin, tnx fr yr msg. I know aban "MAY" test 2100 lvl. But it is just "MAY" only. To my information some brokers / operators are hammering it down to this level. What ever be the reason.. it is good for us also to accumulate. It is one of the best stock available at the cheapest PE.. I don't care even if I have to pay another 10% more at this present rate. I am planning to buy 10 shares on every 3% dip from here.
I am expecting it to touch more than 3300 when it starts running ahead.
Best Regards
Buy Aban Offshore: S Kedia
Posted by : MMB MessengerTracked by: 0 Boarder
Sushil Kedia of K&A Securities is of the view that one can buy Aban Offshore with an immediate upside target of close to 2,900....
will L&T go 3000 or more
Posted by : GuestTracked by: 0 Boarder
i have 9 shares of L&T of 2950, will it touch 3000 or more in near future. Is L&T giving bonus share, wht about the record date for bonus shares....
Is Aban is Going Down to 2100? :(
Posted by : papyaTracked by: 2 Boarders
Thanque very much, I Found a knowledgeable answer. :)
Once Again Thanks..
Satheesh K
...
In reply to:
Is Aban is Going Down to 2100? :(
Posted by : Guest
You have already bought 50 shares at a very good price so i would suggest you to wait before taking fresh exposure. There were couple of bad news related with Aban Offshore but that has already been taken into account due to which it took the beating and was hitting all time lows.
I believe that the downside now is pretty much restricted however if the market crashes and goes down substantially you may see 2000-2100 level and that would again be a good time to accumulate more shares.
It\\`s just matter of time before it will start moving up and as suggested by analysts the first target is 2900 and then 3700 is also a possibility.
About bonus I am not sure but I think it is a strong contender looking at the price at which it is trading so I will not rule out the possibility but can\\`t say when, though it will boost the share price for sure.
Hope above comment helps !!.
dividend
Posted by : snehadesai22Tracked by: 0 Boarder
I bought aban offshore yesterday,am i eligible for dividend?...
Hemant from Pune
Posted by : hemant.patilTracked by: 0 Boarder
Is it good time to buy this share? Can hold for 1 year...
Buy Aban Offshore, target of Rs 5555: Hem
Posted by : christo.investTracked by: 1 Boarder
Aban Offshore - Oil drilling & Exploration
Go ahead and invest in it...
detailed post: financialhub(dot)in/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=1652...
In reply to:
Buy Aban Offshore, target of Rs 5555: Hem
Posted by : girin
Aban is going to go down further to 2100 by Sep 1st week or earlier for SURE in short term. Do not buy now or take long positions. Do not get misled by research reports those are valid only for long term
Market Players like ABAN
Posted by : sf18Tracked by: 0 Boarder
The down hill journey is over. The only thing left with this stock is the uphill journey and it is clearly evident. So all those who have bought this stock just sit back and enjoy the journey...
In reply to:
Market Players like ABAN
Posted by : girin
This is going down the hill journey.....Pls invest in some other stock like Dolphin Offshore
Buy Aban Offshore, target of Rs 5555: Hem
Posted by : lion-&-tigerTracked by: 1 Boarder
Hi girin, tnx fr yr msg. I know aban "MAY" test 2100 lvl. But it is just "MAY" only. To my information some brokers / operators are hammering it down to this level. What ever be the reason.. it is good for us also to accumulate. It is one of the best stock available at the cheapest PE.. I don't care even if I have to pay another 10% more at this present rate. I am planning to buy 10 shares on every 3% dip from here.
I am expecting it to touch more than 3300 when it starts running ahead.
Best Regards...
In reply to:
Buy Aban Offshore, target of Rs 5555: Hem
Posted by : girin
Aban is going to go down further to 2100 by Sep 1st week or earlier for SURE in short term. Do not buy now or take long positions. Do not get misled by research reports those are valid only for long term
Buy Aban Offshore, target of Rs 5555: Hem
Posted by : krmanish007Tracked by: 1 Boarder
HDFC Sec has also recommended this scrip from medium to term....
In reply to:
Buy Aban Offshore, target of Rs 5555: Hem
Posted by : girin
Aban is going to go down further to 2100 by Sep 1st week or earlier for SURE in short term. Do not buy now or take long positions. Do not get misled by research reports those are valid only for long term
Boarders Outlook on Aban Offshore
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