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Tracked by: 110 Boarders
novice1000, Good message, especially - (a) that GDP expansion cant take place without capacity addition in infrastructural facilities like power, surface transportation and water facilities for domestic and industrial usage and,for strange reasons, govt had neglected these things in the past 4 years; and (b) that the relief ( I believe a major one) in the immediate future is the expected commissioning of RIL`s KG basin project. ...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
novice1000
dear hln,
Pls dont compare the corrections in periods between Jan2004 to May 2004 and between May 2006 to June 2006 with the present crisis.
1)Markets excesses in terms of higher valuations were very limited in those preceeding rallies.
2)There was absolutely no liquidity crisis during those periods.The present liquidity crisis is second only to great depression in 1929.
3)There was no slow down fears in 2004 and 2006.
4)Indian economy`s growth engines IT and Realty were in full swing at that time and these two sectors are now on the verge of entering in to deep troubles with no foreseeable respite in the near future.
5)Next growth engine of Indian economy is going to be the spending on infrastructural facilities.But the mounting fiscal deficit is going to play spoiltsport and force the govt to defer spending on infrastructure.
Pls remember that GDP expansion cant take place without capacity addition in infrastructural facilities like power, surface transportation and water facilities for domestic and industrial usage.For strange reasons govt had neglected these things in the past 4 years and nothing can be done in this area over night.
6)And the rapid drying up of liquidity will be another problem for the core economy.
7)post dotcom bust (8 years back), Markets were in dull phase till 2003.The present crisis by any means is more severe than that.
Expecting any sustainable rally before 2010 can safely be ruled out.
But yes.. after that one will see the mother of all rallies which India Inc witnessed so far ,taking the sensex to unforeseen levels by 2016 with one major correction in the intermediate period.
That would be the life time opportunity for any active market participant to mint money.
regards
PS: The only relief in the immediate future is the expected commissioning of RIL`s KG basin project. 
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Negative sentiments have taken their toll but I personally think that there is nothing wrong with Indian market fundamentals. Things will improve one day soon. Those who remain invested and continue to buy with whatever surpluses they can generate will immensely benefit in the long run....
In reply to:
Has your confidence in equities been shattered?
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Hi,
The seeds of a down turn are sown when the markets are at their highest. Companies basking in high growth rates and profits seem to think that the orders will continue to come for ever. Capacity expansions are done with optimistic projections. Normally the down turn comes before the expanded capacity is available.
This story is seen to repeat over years. I was told once that the best time to tighten your belt is during the heights of boom. Retrenching people after down turn and re hiring when next up tun comes is a very bad way. Not only does it demoralise your staff but you loose trained people.
I do not think the economy will collapse. The cycle of economy will be towards slow growth. Companies which hav ebetter financial management, will recover and those who have gambled will close. Better stick to time tested companies in these times. It may be a good time to start investing.
Regards ...
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by : marketman
We have been listening indian growth stories for few years.... our financial markets too witnessed the same trend till recently.... our policy makers repeatedly assuring the investors about the strongness of indian economy.... they are saying india is immune to world financial crisis....
But indian financial markets too collapsing along with the global cues.... almost all investors and many corporates are already in deep troubles.... few are doubting at some pvt sector banks for their suspicious behaviour....
We are also part of globe,india is not from any other planet.... this common logic is ignored by our policy makers and talking nonsenses on daily basis to confuse/mislead the indian investors aswell as indian public....
Atleast the chiefs of global economy taking few steps to control the situation,we havnot seen any types of mesures or useful decisions so far in india.... already stock markets fell more than 50% from their peaks within few months.... banks are struggling for survival,many corporates facing liquidty problem,few companies at the threshold of removing employees from payrolls,experts epecting subprime type issues may occur soon in india too.... interestingly indian rupee is weaken much within short span of time....
By seeing/experiencing all these ill effects,even patriotic indians doubting about the situation of economy in the country.... few people asking questions like Is indian economy too collapsing?!
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
dear hln,
Pls dont compare the corrections in periods between Jan2004 to May 2004 and between May 2006 to June 2006 with the present crisis.
1)Markets excesses in terms of higher valuations were very limited in those preceeding rallies.
2)There was absolutely no liquidity crisis during those periods.The present liquidity crisis is second only to great depression in 1929.
3)There was no slow down fears in 2004 and 2006.
4)Indian economy`s growth engines IT and Realty were in full swing at that time and these two sectors are now on the verge of entering in to deep troubles with no foreseeable respite in the near future.
5)Next growth engine of Indian economy is going to be the spending on infrastructural facilities.But the mounting fiscal deficit is going to play spoiltsport and force the govt to defer spending on infrastructure.
Pls remember that GDP expansion cant take place without capacity addition in infrastructural facilities like power, surface transportation and water facilities for domestic and industrial usage.For strange reasons govt had neglected these things in the past 4 years and nothing can be done in this area over night.
6)And the rapid drying up of liquidity will be another problem for the core economy.
7)post dotcom bust (8 years back), Markets were in dull phase till 2003.The present crisis by any means is more severe than that.
Expecting any sustainable rally before 2010 can safely be ruled out.
But yes.. after that one will see the mother of all rallies which India Inc witnessed so far ,taking the sensex to unforeseen levels by 2016 with one major correction in the intermediate period.
That would be the life time opportunity for any active market participant to mint money.
regards
PS: The only relief in the immediate future is the expected commissioning of RIL`s KG basin project....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Dear pranvpichu,
Your observation that Bear market always runs for 2-3
years seems to have no basis. Look at the following facts
relating to bear markets in India:
April 1992 to April 1993: 12 months, correction 56%
January 2004 to May 2004: 5 months, correction 32%
May 2006 to June 2006: 1 Month, correction 31%
Hope you will re-think about your hope.
Good luck
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Usd gained as much as dow lost how can these two b heading in different direction at same time....... if us economy is so bad one would expect usd to dive with dow...... I don`t under stand this but.... In my portfolio strong usd has wiped off some loses...now if Dow recovers and usd holds its ground it will b win win situation......
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
Atheist
Sir,
Many are trying to paint a positive picture, hoping against hope that the markets may recover. The reason being they are heavily invested in the INDIAN equities....They are clutching on to straws.
But they refuse to see the WRITING ON THE WALL which is as clear as BISLERI water, THE WORLD IS HEADED FOR A RECESSION, A recession caused by EXCESS GREED, greed which had made the investors blind to the actual valuations of the businesses they were investing in, the greed of the investment bankers and other to make a killing by investing others people s money in exotic derivatives, a synonym for WMD, the greed of the Indian corporates like REL COMM to rake in money so as to up stage his KIN,
The reason for the muck that we are all in is PLAIN GREED.
.
The MUCK is not going to disappear just by hoping it will and trying to paint rosy pictures when all that is are DARK CLOUDS that are visible. We all have to suffer for the consequences resulting from EXCESS GREED that we displayed over the years.
.
This GREED results from our own deficiencies like LOW SELF ESTEEM and INFERIORITY COMPLEX, JEALOUSY.
When we see that our neighbour has a car with 100 horse power engine, we feel INFERIOR to him, we want to buy a car with atleast 101 HORSE power. When we see someone sipping a Budweiser, we feel jealous coz we can only afford to have a kingfisher.
These material wants resulting from complexes are the main fodder for the GREED.
Why cant we all learn to be satisfied with what we have!!???
WE ALWAYS WANT MORE THAN WHAT OUR NEIGBOUR HAS....WHY???
Once we learn to control our GREED and learn to BE HAPPY WIH WHAT WE HAVE, we will become immune to such bleak times.
ITS TIME TO INTROSPECT!!!
...SINGH...
Dear bubbu 64, I booked for a plot of land a year back, in AVC Township (kindly visit avchousing dot com and see the route map and location). So far, in two instalments, half of the payment has been made. The plot is yet to be registered in my name. I understand that some final approval from Greater Hyderabad Dev.Authority (some name like that) is yet to be received, which is stalling the final documentation. I would like to have your opinion on the above, especially whether the promoter is of repute, his commitment and also location of the project. Kindly leave personal message in my id....
In reply to:
Americans Common Sense Prevails...
Posted by : bubbu64
Dear Ramesh
I stay in Hyderabad. If u could let me know in which area of Hyd u have purchased this porperty, maybe I can help you. I have a good knowledge of the Hyderabad real estate mkt though I must say honestly I am neither a real broker or a dealer or a developer, But yes I had purchased two properties in Hyd three years back and had done extensive research on the whole city. My first property is purely a self occupied one while the second one is a investment/ extended family/kids option property. Hence I am constantly in touch with the mkt. Do let me know if u want some good advice on the query u have posed above.
PS:- If you want to post any personal details regarding the property which u would not like to reveal on the general msg board, then pls use the pvt msg option in ur ID.
Regards
bubbu64
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dea bull 2008
If India can make it without the help of the FII`s ( which is not possible in reality) and run ahead on its own steam with courage and conviction steadily and without falling pray to the charms of the CDO`s, SIV`s etc. We have the ability ( we threw out the brits without firing a bullet), we have the knowledge ( indian have the best brains in the world and has been proven, I have lost count), we have the perseverance (many have made it from the worst poverty levels and even the middle class i.e NRN ) and finally we have the self control ( we didnt attack pakistan despite Kargil ). All in all we make a great package but we only lack in one aspect very much needed in today`s tough world and that is self confidence ( we tend to get weak kneed at times or even falter when the going gets tough ). You have the confidence then I am sure India can even be the no 1 developed country in the world. Other boarders can make any comments on what I have written.
Regards
bubbu64...
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by : Bull 2008
Dear marketman
It is not India but the US that is going through the worst phase after the 1930 crash it witnessed. This has led the mass exodus of dollars and FII`s from our country too, as is witnessed from rest of the world. The Indian economy stands firm even in this crisis.
The present situation is very tricky and painful for all. But the ones who are on the right side of the fall or the ones who moved out before the fall are the gainers. So the oppourtunity is huge but only for the smart ones.
Secondly this fall of the biggies bring huge oppourtunity for India in the mid and long term. None of our banks went bust, we don`t have a subprime like situation, and also we don`t have to bail out anything. We are steady on our growth path. The Nuke deal get signed soon, also still Indian firms are on the buy mode and acquiring firms from rest of the world, we still have the best GDP growth rate in the world. As and when the world realize these facts we will be the biggest benificary.
So biggest fall also opened the door for biggest gains. This is just the start of Indian emergence into big leaque of developed world.
Regards
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
This may be the fifth and final down wave for Nifty but for S&P it is only the third. And Elliot Wave practitioners are projecting that after a pullback sometimes next month, S&P would again fall for the final time to find its bottom.
Assuming that is true, I would say that Indian markets can not rally with US markets falling. So bottom is still a little distance away....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Hi pkk,
There is absolutely no doubt that it is the FIFTH and FINAL
wave. Bottom is very very near. Dow has hit the bottom today.
It may not fall any more below 7883.
Tracked by: 3 Boarders
Dear Ramesh
I stay in Hyderabad. If u could let me know in which area of Hyd u have purchased this porperty, maybe I can help you. I have a good knowledge of the Hyderabad real estate mkt though I must say honestly I am neither a real broker or a dealer or a developer, But yes I had purchased two properties in Hyd three years back and had done extensive research on the whole city. My first property is purely a self occupied one while the second one is a investment/ extended family/kids option property. Hence I am constantly in touch with the mkt. Do let me know if u want some good advice on the query u have posed above.
PS:- If you want to post any personal details regarding the property which u would not like to reveal on the general msg board, then pls use the pvt msg option in ur ID.
Regards
bubbu64...
In reply to:
Americans Common Sense Prevails...
Posted by :
raneshramesh
thanks very much for your wisdom,unfortunately i did not hold any cash at this time, howver i will try to work out as per your suggestions. Now, i seek another advise from you, recently i have made a aggrement to buy one flat in an appartment in Hyd and i paid 500k INR as advance, and i have to apply for a loan for another 3mil INR..after looking at the global credit situation, is it advisable to apply for loan and buy this plot or i should leave this agrement by loosing 500K to the builder, becoz, there are very less chances to get back my advance money...i am really confused, i am sure even if you staying out side India, your knowledge is wide spread, once again thanks for your time , regards, Ranesh
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Here are some Ur`s Truly earlier predictions
Urs Truly had predicted (20 Dec 2007, then complete U turn)
Dear Friends,
Today on 20 december 2007 we are just 2 weeks away from monthly and quarterly and yearly CLOSE which is VERY important for any share or commodity or index and therefore must not be ignored completely in EUPHORIA.
Larsen and Toubro LNT and BHEL and RIL leading three shares show in their monthly charts POSSIBLE formation of an EVENING STAR - END of BULLRUN SIGNAL- RNRL and RPL etc many monthly charts are showing signs of weakness. Prices have started trading below simple 3 month moving average levels in some shares . If close is below these levels then a possible corrective phase is ALREADY ON which may last 3-5-8-13 months and maybe more.
WISDOM which is rare these days says one must disinvest from leading counters where such chart patterns are appearing which shows weakness and should invest proceeds in fixed income assets
(I say Dear Friends please highlight the Names RIL, RPL, RNRL are said to disinvest over here, now lets see what is in store in the next message)
And well complete U TURN on 28 DEC 07
Dear friend,
It is an ageold practice.
Whenever market rises or drops, people NEED REASON .
Oh, now this is the reason ! like that.
Actual reason is selling and buying by the smart ones.
I am expecting some DRAMATIC move BASED ON CHART PATTERNS in WHOLE RIL - BOTH BROTHERS - GROUP- maybe a gift or tribute from them to their late father - the legendary gujju Dhirubhai Ambani.
Mad possibilities are, RPL 510-558 and RNRL 260-360
Maybe i am wrong but just have a look at their weekly stoch and similar pattern in recent past !
Many had doubts but ,both brothers have proved they are BETTER than their father- look at marketcap of combined group today and compare it with marketcap when Dhirubhai was there !
Their best gift to their late father.
Whatever people may say , i am always proud of fellow GUJARATIS .
warm regards as always
And well on 29 DEC 08
In the year 2008 if any panic selling takes place in rpl or rnrl their panic supports are , Company panic support cmp target 2 years upto 2010
rpl 120 223 510-558
rnrl 81 178 260-360
Now the Complete U Turn on the Whole market
Dear Bearcartel,
My view at present is,
Yearly open of year 2008 - the 1 Jan open will be pivotal point for whole year. For Wipro it is 522 trend is definitely up and target 576 Jan-Mar08 first quarter.
For others, POSSIBILITIES ARE,
SrnoName PivotalPoint Yearly tgt 1stQuarterly tgt Jan08 tgt
1. Bse30index 20325 27838 23010 21268
2. RPL 225 383.6 300.60 242.45
3. RNRL 183 335.35 280.9 206.55
4. RIL 2890 4386 3372 2982
Dear Chartlover friends,
From the data available, astrological formations, announcements, here is what may happen- Indian Stock market-
MONTHLY CHART
1. January 2008 Big bull candle
Reason : Budget anticipations, Decqtr result announcements
2. February 2008 BIG BEAR CANDLE
Reason : FII shorting the market, liquidity requirements, profitbooking at higher levels - prebudget profitbooking-
Usually when february budget is expected to be good, rally begins in nov-dec and ends in Jan end/feb beginning , makes bottom , makes lower top on budget day when actual announcements come, rises again in march .
FII permitted to short from 1 Feb 2008 and if ACTUALLY market comes down from then onwards, BEARS will also join enthusiastically to cover losses made in last 5 years , result will be weak february close. At that timeYEARLY OPEN will act as pivotal point and NOV07 close as stoploss for bulls.
If march 2008 behaves as expected , MAD BULLRUN will take market to absurd levels- as mentioned in my recent messages- bse 30 index 26000-31000 RIL 3400-3800 etc
BE CAREFUL ALL FRIENDS,
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
3. March 2008 Big bull candle
making sandwich pattern, bearish february sandwiched between bullish Jan- Mar.
...
In reply to:
13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall
Posted by : amarakbar
Dear Friends,
Since last few messages i have been trying to tel all my readers that SIGNIFICANT bottom is in the making . Sep End message shows 3 weeks to go.
3 Oct message says 2 week to go.
8 Oct message says 5 trading days to go.
now 2 days out of those 5 days are already over and REMAINING 3 days are, 13 Oct to 15 Oct 2008.
Like that song singh is king, this gujju is master of TURNINGS by now.
Grace of God.
Thus my friends, CURRENT DOWNMOVE IN STOCKS WILL END in 13 to 15 OCT 2008 PERIOD.
Some friends will remember when crude wasat 148 usd yours truly had posted that it will not rise anymore from that level, today it is below 100, around 80-90 range.
SELL GOLD which is at 14000 RS for 10 gram level today.
SELL USD which is at 48.5-49INR level today.
SELL REALESTATE which is at alltime high level and has just started to tumble- in my city AHMEDABAD rates - residential property 3200 Rs per sq ft in my area are still same but no buyers anymore at those rates thus stagnant market waiting for downward price adjustments in coming years.
ENCASH YOUR fixed deposit and switch over to STOCKS NOW.
Oct07 to Jan 08 I had written here to encash from stocks and prefer fixed deposit now that trade MUST BE REVERSED, reenter stocks now as they will yield more than 10 % return from current levels in next one year period. Thus a better choice .
Now coming to EXTENT OF FALL POSSIBLE-
Bse30 can touch 9236 level in panic.
Basis of this target 1980/4546 x 21206 that is theory Vipul Lashkari , comaring 1992 April to 1993 April to Oct 2007 to Oct 2008 price change for bse 30 index will give probable target of 9236 for bse 30 index.
We are at 10525 bse 30 index level as on 10 Oct 2008 friday close.
Thus 12.25 % away from possible and probable bottom.
14 rsi is still pointing south in daily chart but is at very low value, it will make bottom - higher bottom formation during monday 13 oct to wednesday 15 oct 2008 , thus POSITIVE divergence will ENSURE END OF CURRENT DOWNMOVE, stoch will also GIVE BUY SIGNAL by line crossover , indicator cutting moving average line from below.
Whatever you buy now, HOLD TILL FEB 2009 - sell in budget expectation RALLY -15 OCT 2008 to 13 FEB 2009.
I expect 20 % return on investment for one who INVESTS NOW IN STOCKS in this period - conservative estimate, 30 to 40 % return practical estimate and above 50 % return OPERATOR`s estimate.
Stability will return in world markets by 5 to 19 Nov 2008 and then onwards UPMOVE is expected.
Warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
this is avery good article and good analysis...
In reply to:
India must stop relying on global flows: Uday Kotak
Posted by : MMB Messenger
One Uday Kotak, MD and CEO of Kotak Mahindra Bank, expects this global pain to remain for the next three-five years. He strongly feels India has to stop depending on global flows because those economies themselves are in a problem and said that India needs to start relying more on our domestic savings and domestic ability to build our economy.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
One Uday Kotak, MD and CEO of Kotak Mahindra Bank, expects this global pain to remain for the next three-five years. He strongly feels India has to stop depending on global flows because those economies themselves are in a problem and said that India needs to start relying more on our domestic savings and domestic ability to build our economy....
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hi coolboy,
Your father is doing the right way of investing by entering his choice of stocks in a staggered manner. Never invest everything in one go. I am also waiting for some more dip in HDFC and HDFC Bank. Although Hdfc came down to 1641 on friday, my order was for 1600. I know it has a possibility of sinking down to 1400 too wherein I shall pickup more of it. HDFC Bank is still going strong by not breaking 975. Am waiting for it to break 975 as then it can sink badly too. ICICIBank seems to have been oversold, will think about it at 300 levels. And RIL, well, its like buy one get one free. Its a buy at any levels below 1600.
Regarding your options, I would suggest to get out of your 3400 put on monday on a small dip and hold unto your calls and on a good upmove, get out of your 4500 calls coz that is too out of the money. I feel your 3600 call can give you good profits. Hang on. You still have some more time in your hands.
take care
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : coolboy007
Hii lovemeall sir,
Yeah sir i understand you are busy with your work and puja i was all empty this week with school holidays and no work.
The stocks he took werent hammered much , he took 30 HDFC bank on 1011 that day and even today took additional 20 at 106 , his punj lyod he took at 207 bought 100 more today at 192 . Relcap fell heavily he didnt take it this time , waiting for more severe fall and he took adlabsfilm to avg out shares at a higher price of arnd 550.
Sir i never take delivery shares but dad is interested in ICICI bank ( too much rumour fall ) , Aban offshore ( after a long time gave green closing ) , Gujnrecoke ( His avg 1000 shares 85 now 31 he intends to take more ) and RIL.
Do give ur views sir and plz take your time.
I am to long with 3 ce of 3600 4500 and 1 3400 Pe bought it strategically took ce at opening bell and pe when sensex was just down 500 points. Let us see which way we go.
Thanks for your help.
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hello BSR,
Yes technically, we should have a nice bounceback as shortcovering comes to the fore,but that depends when the bears have had their fill and decide that enough is enough because the ball is now in their court and they are making the rules of the game. Yes this rally will be used by stuck up bulls to offload their long positions and when they withdraw their support to further go long, our markets may again sink to 3000 levels. There is increased uncertainty around the globe and the way the dow performed on friday, it was nothing short of a formula one race. I mean traders around the world including India are totally on roller coaster rides. But trading right now is also favouring the brave who do venture out into the killing fields.
take care
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Dear lovemeall26,
Those Gap Downs were good for me! :)
Since Nifty has not not shown similar behaviour as DOW has shown, I would have expected Nifty below 3000 by now resulting in those Dirt Cheap Prices for many stocks! :)
Anyway, technically, we should see some Upward UPMOVES both on DOW and Nifty! Let us see!:)
However, you said correctly that there is no need to hurry now! Ppl need to put some HOMEWORK and go for LT investments in staggered manner!
That last fall should happen within three months! I would put my WILD guess sometime around end of November or beginning of December! Let us see! That is just a BS guess based on past historic data as I expect Dow to do well around US election time!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hello vam_aru,
Yes I agree with you that this volatility has become a day traders nightmare as deep stop losses are also being hit so easily. We need to consolidate for some time down here before a healthy upmove can begin, but yes again, global cues are just unrelenting in their negativeness. Hopefully, we will not have a gap down on monday although the dow sank nearly 700 points at one time on friday. Crude falling below 80 alonthwith emergency measures being taken around the world might stabilize the markets for a day or two, but our IIP figures sure was a dampener. Lets see, where we move from here.
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : vam_aru
I hope 3000 will be a bottom, But going by the global crisis we might have to live with more gap downs, and actually I want the consolidation should take longer with out much volatility, Then we can have a coordinated run up, we should not be seeing the violent short covering rallies, That is always not good, as it will not allow the markets to consolidate.
