Market View

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : hindlevernet

Dear pranvpichu,

Your observation that Bear market always runs for 2-3
years seems to have no basis. Look at the following facts
relating to bear markets in India:

April 1992 to April 1993: 12 months, correction 56%
January 2004 to May 2004: 5 months, correction 32%
May 2006 to June 2006: 1 Month, correction 31%

Hope you will re-think about your hope.

Good luck

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : Atheist

Sir,
Many are trying to paint a positive picture, hoping against hope that the markets may recover. The reason being they are heavily invested in the INDIAN equities....They are clutching on to straws.
But they refuse to see the WRITING ON THE WALL which is as clear as BISLERI water, THE WORLD IS HEADED FOR A RECESSION, A recession caused by EXCESS GREED, greed which had made the investors blind to the actual valuations of the businesses they were investing in, the greed of the investment bankers and other to make a killing by investing others people s money in exotic derivatives, a synonym for WMD, the greed of the Indian corporates like REL COMM to rake in money so as to up stage his KIN,
The reason for the muck that we are all in is PLAIN GREED.
.
The MUCK is not going to disappear just by hoping it will and trying to paint rosy pictures when all that is are DARK CLOUDS that are visible. We all have to suffer for the consequences resulting from EXCESS GREED that we displayed over the years.
.
This GREED results from our own deficiencies like LOW SELF ESTEEM and INFERIORITY COMPLEX, JEALOUSY.
When we see that our neighbour has a car with 100 horse power engine, we feel INFERIOR to him, we want to buy a car with atleast 101 HORSE power. When we see someone sipping a Budweiser, we feel jealous coz we can only afford to have a kingfisher.
These material wants resulting from complexes are the main fodder for the GREED.
Why cant we all learn to be satisfied with what we have!!???
WE ALWAYS WANT MORE THAN WHAT OUR NEIGBOUR HAS....WHY???
Once we learn to control our GREED and learn to BE HAPPY WIH WHAT WE HAVE, we will become immune to such bleak times.
ITS TIME TO INTROSPECT!!!
...SINGH...

Americans Common Sense Prevails...

Posted by : bubbu64

Dear Ramesh

I stay in Hyderabad. If u could let me know in which area of Hyd u have purchased this porperty, maybe I can help you. I have a good knowledge of the Hyderabad real estate mkt though I must say honestly I am neither a real broker or a dealer or a developer, But yes I had purchased two properties in Hyd three years back and had done extensive research on the whole city. My first property is purely a self occupied one while the second one is a investment/ extended family/kids option property. Hence I am constantly in touch with the mkt. Do let me know if u want some good advice on the query u have posed above.

PS:- If you want to post any personal details regarding the property which u would not like to reveal on the general msg board, then pls use the pvt msg option in ur ID.

Regards

bubbu64

Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!

Posted by : Bull 2008

Dear marketman

It is not India but the US that is going through the worst phase after the 1930 crash it witnessed. This has led the mass exodus of dollars and FII`s from our country too, as is witnessed from rest of the world. The Indian economy stands firm even in this crisis.

The present situation is very tricky and painful for all. But the ones who are on the right side of the fall or the ones who moved out before the fall are the gainers. So the oppourtunity is huge but only for the smart ones.

Secondly this fall of the biggies bring huge oppourtunity for India in the mid and long term. None of our banks went bust, we don`t have a subprime like situation, and also we don`t have to bail out anything. We are steady on our growth path. The Nuke deal get signed soon, also still Indian firms are on the buy mode and acquiring firms from rest of the world, we still have the best GDP growth rate in the world. As and when the world realize these facts we will be the biggest benificary.

So biggest fall also opened the door for biggest gains. This is just the start of Indian emergence into big leaque of developed world.

Regards

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : hindlevernet

Hi pkk,

There is absolutely no doubt that it is the FIFTH and FINAL
wave. Bottom is very very near. Dow has hit the bottom today.
It may not fall any more below 7883.

Americans Common Sense Prevails...

Posted by : raneshramesh

thanks very much for your wisdom,unfortunately i did not hold any cash at this time, howver i will try to work out as per your suggestions. Now, i seek another advise from you, recently i have made a aggrement to buy one flat in an appartment in Hyd and i paid 500k INR as advance, and i have to apply for a loan for another 3mil INR..after looking at the global credit situation, is it advisable to apply for loan and buy this plot or i should leave this agrement by loosing 500K to the builder, becoz, there are very less chances to get back my advance money...i am really confused, i am sure even if you staying out side India, your knowledge is wide spread, once again thanks for your time , regards, Ranesh

13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall

Posted by : amarakbar

Dear Friends,
Since last few messages i have been trying to tel all my readers that SIGNIFICANT bottom is in the making . Sep End message shows 3 weeks to go.
3 Oct message says 2 week to go.
8 Oct message says 5 trading days to go.
now 2 days out of those 5 days are already over and REMAINING 3 days are, 13 Oct to 15 Oct 2008.
Like that song singh is king, this gujju is master of TURNINGS by now.
Grace of God.
Thus my friends, CURRENT DOWNMOVE IN STOCKS WILL END in 13 to 15 OCT 2008 PERIOD.
Some friends will remember when crude wasat 148 usd yours truly had posted that it will not rise anymore from that level, today it is below 100, around 80-90 range.
SELL GOLD which is at 14000 RS for 10 gram level today.
SELL USD which is at 48.5-49INR level today.
SELL REALESTATE which is at alltime high level and has just started to tumble- in my city AHMEDABAD rates - residential property 3200 Rs per sq ft in my area are still same but no buyers anymore at those rates thus stagnant market waiting for downward price adjustments in coming years.
ENCASH YOUR fixed deposit and switch over to STOCKS NOW.
Oct07 to Jan 08 I had written here to encash from stocks and prefer fixed deposit now that trade MUST BE REVERSED, reenter stocks now as they will yield more than 10 % return from current levels in next one year period. Thus a better choice .
Now coming to EXTENT OF FALL POSSIBLE-
Bse30 can touch 9236 level in panic.
Basis of this target 1980/4546 x 21206 that is theory Vipul Lashkari , comaring 1992 April to 1993 April to Oct 2007 to Oct 2008 price change for bse 30 index will give probable target of 9236 for bse 30 index.
We are at 10525 bse 30 index level as on 10 Oct 2008 friday close.
Thus 12.25 % away from possible and probable bottom.
14 rsi is still pointing south in daily chart but is at very low value, it will make bottom - higher bottom formation during monday 13 oct to wednesday 15 oct 2008 , thus POSITIVE divergence will ENSURE END OF CURRENT DOWNMOVE, stoch will also GIVE BUY SIGNAL by line crossover , indicator cutting moving average line from below.
Whatever you buy now, HOLD TILL FEB 2009 - sell in budget expectation RALLY -15 OCT 2008 to 13 FEB 2009.
I expect 20 % return on investment for one who INVESTS NOW IN STOCKS in this period - conservative estimate, 30 to 40 % return practical estimate and above 50 % return OPERATOR`s estimate.
Stability will return in world markets by 5 to 19 Nov 2008 and then onwards UPMOVE is expected.
Warm regards
Vipul Lashkari

India must stop relying on global flows: Uday Kotak

Posted by : MMB Messenger

One Uday Kotak, MD and CEO of Kotak Mahindra Bank, expects this global pain to remain for the next three-five years. He strongly feels India has to stop depending on global flows because those economies themselves are in a problem and said that India needs to start relying more on our domestic savings and domestic ability to build our economy.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : coolboy007

Hii lovemeall sir,

Yeah sir i understand you are busy with your work and puja i was all empty this week with school holidays and no work.

The stocks he took werent hammered much , he took 30 HDFC bank on 1011 that day and even today took additional 20 at 106 , his punj lyod he took at 207 bought 100 more today at 192 . Relcap fell heavily he didnt take it this time , waiting for more severe fall and he took adlabsfilm to avg out shares at a higher price of arnd 550.

Sir i never take delivery shares but dad is interested in ICICI bank ( too much rumour fall ) , Aban offshore ( after a long time gave green closing ) , Gujnrecoke ( His avg 1000 shares 85 now 31 he intends to take more ) and RIL.

Do give ur views sir and plz take your time.
I am to long with 3 ce of 3600 4500 and 1 3400 Pe bought it strategically took ce at opening bell and pe when sensex was just down 500 points. Let us see which way we go.

Thanks for your help.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Dear lovemeall26,

Those Gap Downs were good for me! :)

Since Nifty has not not shown similar behaviour as DOW has shown, I would have expected Nifty below 3000 by now resulting in those Dirt Cheap Prices for many stocks! :)

Anyway, technically, we should see some Upward UPMOVES both on DOW and Nifty! Let us see!:)

However, you said correctly that there is no need to hurry now! Ppl need to put some HOMEWORK and go for LT investments in staggered manner!

That last fall should happen within three months! I would put my WILD guess sometime around end of November or beginning of December! Let us see! That is just a BS guess based on past historic data as I expect Dow to do well around US election time!

Gud luk & happy investing! :)

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : vam_aru

I hope 3000 will be a bottom, But going by the global crisis we might have to live with more gap downs, and actually I want the consolidation should take longer with out much volatility, Then we can have a coordinated run up, we should not be seeing the violent short covering rallies, That is always not good, as it will not allow the markets to consolidate.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : hindlevernet

Hi sp.palo,

3000 is minor support for Nifty. But I feel Nifty
is more likely to slip to 2800 level within next few
days.

I use manual charts for TA. I do not have any software.

Kalidas’ Practical Rule for Stocks, Bonds, and Indices

Posted by : Kalidas

Dear Boarders,

I had casually mentioned once, but it would be interest to many Investors if they carefully follow my practical rule that was tested by me for over 21 years.

For INDICES – 200:800 rule and 30:70 rule

Once I mentioned in this forum that indices usually follow the repeat pattern of 200:800. That is index movement usually moves as under:

Example:
7800 – 8200 – 8800 – 9200 – 9800 – 10,200 – 10,800 – 11,200 – 11,800 – 12200 – 12,800 – 13,200 – 13800 – 14,200 – 14,800 – 15,200 – 15,800 – 16,200 – 16,800 – 17,200 – 17,800 – 18,200 – 18,800 etc.

This applies to all indices in the world. Look at SENSEX and also DOW recently. Dow was always jumping up from 11,200 to 11,800 and once went to 12,200. When it fell from 11,200, it dropped to previous level 10,800 (-400) and then to 10,200 (-600), then to 9,800 (-400) and then again 9,200 (-600)

Because this is Text only format, I can not make table which is easy to read and follow. In my website I will post this article fully re-written with tables.

In India too, the same pattern was followed, so also in Hong Kong and Japan.

How to read this Kalidas Rule?
If the index is rising say from 9200, it will go to 9800 in rising trend. If it is a falling trend, then it will go down to 8800. Right now, the Dow is trading at 9200 level and following downward trend, so it will go down to 8800 first, then if not stabilizes, to 8200. If it breaks 8000, then hell will break loose. Whenever, the magic figures of 8000 (or multiple or division by 10 that is, 8,80,800, 8000 etc), it will drop by 40% to go to 5000 or multiple/division by 10 level ,that is 8 will go down to 5, 80 to 50, 800 to 500, 8000 to 5000 etc. It reverses in same fashion.

30:70 SUB-RULE FOR INDICES
This is particularly useful to Traders of indices. The index rises above critical level by 30 (to 8230 for 8200; 8830 for 8800, 9230 for 9200 etc. similarly when it falls, deduct 30 points way down for support level. For instance if it is falling 8200 will test to 8170, 8800 will test 8770, 9200 will test 9170 etc.

For example, you find the Sensex falling below 11,800. It will test the support of 11,770. If it does not hold, it will go down all the way to 11,200 (with one minor stop at 11400) where it will first test the level of 11230. If it does not hold, it will be forced down to 11170 in less than few minutes. If it does not hold the support at 11170, then it will go down to less than 11000 to all the way down to 10,800 (halting at 10,830 or 835 and then testing the support at 10,770. If the daily fall is more, then after hitting say, 10,770 it will recover to over 11200 by testing upper resistance of 11,230/235 level. This is what happened on SENSEX a few days ago.

You can work out the exact point easily using Excel spreadsheet by inputting the formula properly.

Example: in rising trend
Index rising from say, 10,100 – it will go to 10,170 where it will test the downward support level, if it holds above 10,170 and in rising trend (because it has already advanced from 10100), it will test the level of 10,230/235 level, where it will consolidate for longer time. If it passes this hurdle, then it will rise very fast and may rise to 10,400 level (if it can pass 10,370 level fast) and may in fact test 10,430/435 level and then retrace for correction, but will not fall below 10,370 if the trend is strong, news is positive and other Asian markets are firm, with UK also opening stronger.

The above rules are not absolute but they usually hold well in more than 80% to 90% cases. So if the index is in downtrend, and it is at 10,230, then sell short if the trend is downward, and within minutes it will test the support of 10,170 when you can buy back, making 60 points in less than a minute.

Use it as Demo exercise first, If it suits you it is fine, but do not come back like Kalidas, you told us 2400 rally in 7 days and it lost 2400 points without reading my entire post with preconditions. This is a practical rule from experience. Try it at your risk.

Kalidas, Hong Kong
9-10-2008

ALL Stocks of Nifty May close in Green today,

Posted by : subasu

You may be partially right. Some valuations are indeed mouthwatering. But no one is able to even guess what is the bottom. And, do not forget, Governments all over the world have started worrying about the financial markets in their countries. When the Governments themselves are worried, we should tread cautiously. Did you ever hear of 8%+ fall in DOW in a single day? It happened yesterday (Thursday) here in US.

A country like Iceland is on the verge of bankruptcy. So, everyone is naturally concerned about his investments. Market has not yet found the bottom, I personally feel. Anyway, caution should be the watchword for every investor. (I am keeping traders out of this discussion, because, they can hope to make money by moving with the trends, shorting or other known trading tricks.)