Dear vkk, IN my view next trigger for the market will be commercial production by RPL and commencement of crude/natural gas production at D-6 basin in Oct08. ...

There is nothing to suggest that Sensex should come down to 10000-12000. Crude prices had maximum adverse effect on Indian economy. If the prices fall below $100 the economy can only have benefitial effect. I have been maintained for very long time that lower crude prices can even ensure 9% GDP growth for 08-09. All other parameters remain healthy. Good monsoons will have benovolent effect, notwithstanding devestating floods in Bihar. We all must help Bihar to overcome this disaster. Fertile soil and moisture due to massive floods will give a bumper crop to Bihar during winter(Rabi Crop). If four wheel sale has droped slightly, two wheeler has picked up. There is nothing to show drop in demand. As a matter of fact all consumer items have shown healthy growth. Even our inflation rate has shown downward treand and will come down to acceptable level sooner than later. We must remember that we have been extreemly sucessful in containing inflation compared with many other developing nations. Our inflation rate measured at consumer level has not been more than 8% during this period of high inflation. All indicators bode well for economy. Tax collections are robest. Industry has made necessary adjustments in view of higher interest rates. Once inflation is controlled the interest rates will drop. There is no chance of our going to war. Even if the present Govt falls it is time for fresh elections. Why will Sensex fall to level of 10000-12000? I SEE MARKET RALLY TO CONTINUE AND SENSEX TOUCHING CLOSE TO 20000 BY THE END OF THE YEAR....

I have held the view that crude has to come down below $100. Demand supply equation does not support the high prices of crude. It may even come down to $80 or so. Stable prices at $80 will also be good for world economy....

ET Investor's Guide of 01/09/08 calls IGL a safe and a hidden gem. It states "The delhi based supplier of gas to 1.25 lakh house holds & 2.25 automobiles-which is sure to result in growth--- over the past five years, it has always generated around 45% RoCE and paid out a third of its profits by way of dividends. In view of its sound financials and nature of business IGL can be considered a safe bet in difficult times". Indraprastha Gas remains an investment buy. ...

RIL can easily touch Rs4600/ withen time period of less than one year....

Dear nightowl, you have put across a very beautiful and amazingly sensitive thought. May I add insensitive part -"nothing is indispensable in our life"...

Indraprastha Gas the sole disributer of CNG & PNG in NCR Delhi has done a good job for past many years. It has excellent financials and its boottom line has increased consistently by more than 25% a year. With the increase in diesel and petrol price, many vehicles are converting to CNG DUE TO SAVING OF ALMOST 70-75%. There are serpentine queues at any IGL distribution station and the management is taking steps to increase the supply to meet ever increasing demand. CNG is also becoming popular due to pollution concerns. Approximately 5000 vehicles are converting to CNG in NCR Delhi per month. EPS for the year 07-08 was Rs 12.5 and likely to increase to Rs 16-17 during the year 08-09. I consider IGL a strong investment buy with a target price of Rs 190-200 withen next six to nine months....

Shanker Sharma is very bearish on crude and still says 10000-12500 on sensex. who is funding him to go short for such a level?...

Dear tally, A very reasonable message. We all know Shankar sharma. He talks bearish when ho goes short and talks bullish when he goes long. Now a days I dont even look at the analyst's versions as they are almost biased. It is better to do according to our own observations. I see nothing negative considering the levels of valuation. I am confident that crude is the only obstacle and it cannot fly high for so long. If one has to list the reasons for being bullish or bearish, there are plenty on both the sides. The only difference is that the angle from which one look at it. The reasons they attribute for bearish are the same ones they said when the index was at 21000. There lies the difference. I am of the opinion that value of a stock that counts. If the business is good then the economy follows it. I would like to quote from the legend Buffett on the present trend. " I am not an expert on the economy. I could not make any money predicting the course of the economy for 6 months or a year. BUT I DO BELIEVE THAT WE ARE ALREADY UNDER RECESSION. IT WILL BE DEEPER AND LAST LONGER THAN ANY BELIEVE. But my buisnees models are not based on current forecasts. Even if the world went under, I would still be buying companies." You might have noticed that the media were quoting only the ones I have typed in capitals but not the full text. It would have confirmed the real motive behind it. Bears are having a long stay and they naturally dont want to lose their grip. But market has it's own way and say finally. regards nadhi regards nadhi ...

Yes you are absolutely right. These could be possible triggers for the present market. However, refining margin has come down substantially at present and keeping that thing in view, how much this trigger would work, has to be seen. Thanks....

Thanks for your detailed analysis on market. Yes market will show sign of strength with occasional profit booking. Worst seems to be over....

hi tally actually, intuitively i had wanted to buy igl today, but had forgotten to do so......my idea was based on its dividend of 40%, which at cmp should translate to a good yield.... shall be tracking the scrip with renewed interest!...

Yes, RIL is going to lead the stock market but your targets seems to be too optimistic, but is definetely a buy at the current levels for the investers....

agreed tally, nothing is indespensible totally in agreement... but then even tho not indespensible,somthings are certainly missed.. whats says???...