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Market View
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CHIDAMBARAM:
We Don`t Take A View On Rupee, Rupee Will Find Its Own Level
Coordinated Action Will Yield Results
Govt, Rbi And Sebi Are Coordinating On An Hourly Basis
Confident Economy Will Emerge Stronger
If Necesssary Will Make Further Statement Today
Deposits In Banks Are Safe
He Said Working On More Measures To Improve Liquidity
Will Respond Swiftly According To Needs Of Situation
Crude, Commodity Price Fall To Have Beneficial Impact On Inflation
Services Sector Growing At Brisk Rate
Ratio Of Investment To Gdp Remains High Above 35 Pct Q1 2008/09
...
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The global markets are tepid. The Indian markets maybe volatile yet flat today. The weekend was quite with no major news and there may be a slight bounce in the market today. If there s no bounce back this week things will get worse going forward.
Here is a verbatim transcript of Udayan's comments on CNBC TV18. Also see the accompanying video
This is an important week. Last week was a disaster 15% down that’s how much our markets lost. Over the weekend there have been some rumblings from the G7 countries on a bigger package, which could be coming and this week you’ll look forward to that. In any case the global markets are somewhat more tepid, the US cut some of its intra-day losses on Friday and this morning Asia is a bit of a mixed bag, some markets are down, some markets are up so you don’t know what quite to make of it. But over the next few days it might still be quite volatile and jerky depending on policy action that we see, so big one coming up.
No taking away from the fact that last week was a whitewash and psychologically probably pushed a lot of people against the wall?
Pushed against the wall is right. It was really such a terrible week for the market. This week is going to be important one, I don’t know how trade starts off today because you have the baggage of the Friday closing not too much happened over the weekend. I don’t know whether the market will focus on the kind of mixed mood that is prevailing in global markets today or it will focus on the fact that we had a big bounce back from the lows of the day on the Dow indicating that there is some more help which is coming from global markets.
It is a little difficult to decipher; today it might be one of those volatile, yet flattish kind of day, all over the place but eventually not going anywhere significant, it could play out like that. But again you want to believe that after a 15% fall last week given the prospect of more regulatory action this week, you probably could see a little bit of a bounce. I have difficulty saying or pronouncing the word ’bounce’ nowadays but one lives on hope.
What makes it so important, the fact that the market got so oversold almost or is it that we might be prime for everything that can be done, will be done sort of regulatory action?
The later I suspect, I think over the weekend the kind of noise that one heard from the regulators in the West is they have pretty much come around to accepting the situation as it is, which is to say if we don’t something we have had it. So basically just go out, don’t think about moral hazards and tax payers money just get the credit market working once again, and I think you have seen the first signs of that coming in from Australia. I suspect you will see much more of that over the next 24 to 48 hours; it has to happen. They cannot delay this any longer and you could almost sense that they have got a sense of urgency right now. I think the concerted regulatory action, much that you can scoff it by saying, “Big deal, they did a bailout package first and then they cut rates again, precious little it did for the stock markets.”
But at some point they have got to do something, which get the credit markets working and I suspect you will see some material moves along those lines in the next 24 to 48 hours, which will probably drive home the message that in the near-term the panic needs to ebb a little bit. That may be the starting point of a little bit of a rebound in the market. Still remain extremely cautious about the medium-term, because this will not fix a lot of world’s problems.
In the near-term, I suspect that it could lift the mood. But that makes it a really big week for the market. If by the end of this week you don’t have a rebound in global markets, then I suspect we are in for a really bad time going forward. As in you will probably see things that you have never expected to see, if you haven’t already. But I think in the next five days you will see some action, which will come as a bit of a succor to the market.
Asian Indices:
Asia is a bit mixed this morning some are down, some are up. A couple of markets like Hang Seng and Korea have moved up a couple of percentage points, it’s China which is in difficulty and Taiwan is not looking particularly strong either.
-Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor,CNBC TV18...
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I lost 20K in the last four trades and have now become impotent as far as trading goes.. dont want to lose again.. even alex says if you lose as a trader keep out for sometime... these markets are difficult to play.. did u buy bajaj hindustan?...
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by :
vam_aru
I think today one can go long for the 100 point upmove, Europe and USA futures show a significant upmove.. now.. 
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
BUT US market futures one can see only at 12:30 pm where did u find it.. i thought those futures begin quoting at 12:30 pm....can u give the link
REMEMBER NYSE TRIN is at 17... thats very bearish....
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by : vam_aru
I think today one can go long for the 100 point upmove, Europe and USA futures show a significant upmove.. now..
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I think today one can go long for the 100 point upmove, Europe and USA futures show a significant upmove.. now.....
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
Vam,
Not such a convincingly great opening isnt it? I mean is there any strength in the market? lol
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Stock-picking, or even deciding whether to stick with equities or not, has never been more difficult. However, if you are still looking at stocks, there are four things you have to avoid. In fact, these can come handy at all times:
(1) Don’t give in to market moods
Stocks are not about growth and profits of corporates alone. They also reflect the mood of the economy and investors. Due to this, markets have a tendency to slip into the extremes of both downside and upside.
When the Sensex was at 21,000, ‘value’ was the least significant factor for many investors as they wanted to be part of the euphoria. As a result, many invested in stocks which had three-digit PE (price to earnings) ratio. The situation now is completely different with few stocks commanding PE ratios of more than 20.
Still, if you have invested in equity with a long-term perspective, and if you are not in need of funds, don’t resort to selling in line with market mood. Stay calm and focused.
(2) Don’t drop long-term goals
The phrase ‘long-term’ has been acquiring a new meaning these days. Investors who entered equity to build corpus over the long-term have changed tracks just because the markets have come under pressure.
If you are an investor with a pre-defined asset allocation towards equity, stick to your portfolio.
Also, remember that equity may have provided 40-50 per cent returns at regular intervals, but the returns actually average out to 15-18 per cent over the long-term due to intermittent corrections.
Still, annualised returns of more than 15 per cent over a period of 10-20 years help beat inflation and build a corpus for long-term needs.
3) Don’t just buy to ‘average’
A lot of people around you must be talking about this being an opportunity to ‘average’ out your share price. But you can’t afford to fall in love with a stock.
If you have invested in a momentum stock hoping to get quick returns, and if that stock has fallen below your purchase price, booking losses may be a better option than going in for additional purchases.
Reducing the average price through fresh purchase may be a good strategy under normal circumstances, but not in the present bear market.
(4) Don’t take stocks for short-term
Equity should never be an option for short-term goals, irrespective of the market mood. The stock markets are always volatile and can wipe away a good portion of capital in the short-term.
Besides capital, equity requires a staying power and, hence, is not the best option if you are dependent on the corpus in the short-term.
Courtesy: Mumbai Mirror
...
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no the market will recover soon but not 21000 but upto 15000 so making investment in mutual fund or shares today will be more beneficial and if investment is made already no matters hold for some more time u will receive a nice returns on it. think u have invested for 4-5 year then u see u will be in gain....
In reply to:
Has your confidence in equities been shattered?
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger
Tracked by: 4 Boarders
MALAYALI,
but last month you made a mistake in your prediction so where 100%?...
In reply to:
NIFTY = 4750 & SENSEX = 15000
Posted by :
MALAYALI
Again & again & again & again & again MALAYALIs predictions hits the BULLS EYE with deadly pin point accuracy. I predicted last friday, time 11.34 A.M... *****MALAYALI expects some Small Positive recovery, next week*****. And what happen ???... it did. Today(Mon.)... NIFTY FUTURES now at trading +tive... 4% UP. That`s the power of MALAYALIs prediction. MALAYALI : finest of all
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On Friday, while the ticker tape blinkered in red, certified financial planner Gaurav Mashruwala was working the phone all day, reassuring his clients.
His advice : If there is no change in your fund requirements in the immediate future, then just sit tight.
However, if you are in one of two situations, you should get out of the falling markets, says Mashruwala.
First, if you have an outstanding loan. You don’t need to be losing money while simultaneously paying high interest rates.
The second, if you have speculated in penny stocks, it is time to cut your losses and jump if your’e lucky.
Rather than succumbing to the widespread panic and hysteria , most financial advisors are telling their clients to hold on, stay calm and maybe even start shopping for some good bargains.
While markets go down, they also go back up, is the general sentiment.
Says Sujata Kabraji, a wealth manager for high net worth clients, “This is a good time to slowly start buying. I would start investing about 25% of what liquid cash I have and then wait and watch how global events pan out. If there is a further drop, I would pick up again, because I do believe that our economy is in better shape than western economies.’’
In fact, Kabraji started picking up some value stocks on Friday itself, for some of her clients.
She has an agreement with some of her clients to invest a proportion of their money in index funds every time the market falls by a certain percentage.
She added, "at this point, I would focus on buying only large-cap stocks for several reasons. One, they have weathered lots of storms over the years; second, given the global scenario and the credit crunch, mid-cap stocks may not be able to grow the same way they were doing earlier and that will affect their market price."
“At times like this, I like to quote Rudyard Kipling who wrote, in the famous poem, ‘If’ , that if you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, you will come out a winner.”
Says wealth manager Hemant Rustagi, “Someone who has been investing should continue to do so. It may not look very good right now, but the markets are not going to remain like this. It may take some time to recover. So what we are advising our investors is, do not change your asset allocation because the markets are bad. There is always a tendency at times like this to move money to a safer investment like debt or fixed deposits , but that is not right. If stocks are of good quality and you believe in them, there is no reason to stop investing in them.”
He adds, “You can’t be shifting your assets every now and then. Just as you have seen the markets go down, they will also go up.”
ET......
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:-) Your are still confused and willing to do damage control without knowing that the flow of money is due to unregulated price hikes and funds. Technically speaking the credit crisis is due to unmanageable size of the credit given to the borrowers who actually does not have the capacity to repay and all the ecnomies are paying the prices for this...
In reply to:
Has your confidence in equities been shattered?
Posted by : keerthi
Your position is created by you without your valuation of repayment capacity. so you should not complain others for your fault. Rectify it by your self and not on others position.
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Yes definitely our Banking system is quite healthy....
In reply to:
Do you believe that the Indian banking system is healthy?
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger
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Again & again & again & again & again MALAYALIs predictions hits the BULLS EYE with deadly pin point accuracy. I predicted last friday, time 11.34 A.M... *****MALAYALI expects some Small Positive recovery, next week*****. And what happen ???... it did. Today(Mon.)... NIFTY FUTURES now at trading +tive... 4% UP. That`s the power of MALAYALIs prediction. MALAYALI : finest of all ...
In reply to:
NIFTY = 4750 & SENSEX = 15000
Posted by : MALAYALI
Yea.... I`m back. Who`s the BEST ??? Who`s the FINEST ??? Who`s the MOST SUCCESSFULL ??? Yea... MALAYALI... Did it ??? Today I covered all my SHORT POSITIONS ??? HAH... HA... Today, MALAYALI covered 150 Lots, Nifty Futures (Oct) Short Position at 3275 Levels... Shorted at 4050 Levels. 4050 - 3275 = 775 Points Multiplied by 50 Units Multiplied by 150 Lots = 58,12,500.00 (Fifty Eight Lakhs Twelve Thousand & Five Hundred) . WHY ??? WHY ??? WHY ??? Because, MALAYALI... expecting a BULL RUN from next monday onwards. Its not, MALAYALIs BUY CALL to his fans. WHY ??? WHY ??? WHY ??? Because, BULLs are not strong enough, but the BEARs are. But MALAYALI expects some *****Small Positive recovery, next week. MALAYALIs Call to his fans : *****COVER YOUR SHORTS & BOOK YOUR MASSIVE PROFITS COMPLETLY, & NOT TO BE IN ANY POSITIONS. Safety First... That`s all*****. And what`s next... Coming soon... Wait... I`m always here. MALAYALI : simply the best... of the best... of the best
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Vam,
Not such a convincingly great opening isnt it? I mean is there any strength in the market? lol...
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by : vam_aru
you are right RN,
If we gap up and showed some stregth till the european markets open then we may see a surge, may be at the end of the day or tomorrow we can buy PUTS.
One interesting stock could be Bajaj Hindustan ( If played with COVERED Call strategies people can make money in this counter , Because on friday the prices fallen by 22 % and the open interest fallen by 31 %, These suggesting this stock stabilizing at these levels and become stronger. )
I have updated the Covered call strategies for LT and BAJAJ Hindustan in my Homepage. Patience investors can try that.
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Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger...
Buy Nifty Oct Fut 3439 TGT ........, 3500 SL ..
Market Analysis - Technical View
Posted by : zoombusinessTracked by: 0 Boarder
Buy Nifty Oct Fut 3439 TGT ........, 3500 SL .....
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Udayan's Market Outlook
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Investors should stay in cash, not sell in panic | |
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| Udayan Mukherjee, Stocks Editor, TV18 | ||
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