Offline
| Post a Message | Explore Forums | Browse Stock Messages | Hot Discussions | Top rated Messages | Top Boarders | |
|
|
|
Market Outlook - Short Term
Tracked by: 3 Boarders
Dear Kalidasji,
I had lost 1.5lakhs in the january fall.
I sold of all my portfolio in panic became an ardent follower of your thoughts and stayed out of market.
I saw my portfolio i have saved nearly 1 lakh rupees by taking profits in mutual funds, converting my ulips to safer debt portion buying gold etc.
Thank you sir your advice has been the greatest.
I echo your views whenever i go to my religare branch at aurangabad where i have my account.
All of them now hear me with utmost attention.
My views are taken as coming from some one who knows the market.
Earlier these guys would fight with me, hurl abuses and make fun of me see how the situation has changed.
It is all because of you.
Sir i own an hotel at aurangabad if by chance you visit nearby place do come and grace our hotel with your presence.
I would send you all the details to you by email.
Kindly send me your email id.
I will send my email id to you through the comments section of your LATEST blog (the one with warren buffets drawing).
Regards.
Amarawargaonkar...
In reply to:
Americans Common Sense Prevails...
Posted by :
Kalidas
for raneshramesh,
500k is too high amount to lose. The properties in India are not going to crash that you can afford to lose this much. I do not know the valuation of your property and whether the apartment is ready for possession or under construction. Normally, I never advise anyone in India to buy the property under construction, because in downturn, they run away. It is better to pay 10% more and buy the ready one - pay him on one side, receive on the other - like COD or Cash against delivery. Always make final payment through the financing bank or Lawyer so that all formalities are complied with.
You could have token money of say Rs 1000 and seek all documents from the builder saying that they may be required by the bank for the purpose of loan. If the market situation reverses or you find that the property is not that worth, you can retrace saying the bank did not approve the loan. The most you lose is Rs 1000
Under the cirumstances, you may apply for a loan and pay the builder against delivery of the flat (if it is ready) or make him to agree to receive part payment of just 20% more and balance only against possession. Tell him these are the terms of the bank you are borrowing from. If he disagreed, ask him to return the amount (official or No.2). If the market is in rising trend, he may refund.
Otherwise, proceed cautiously if the property is under construction and the builder is of high repute.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
10-10-2008 
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Dear DK, your datas are very interesting, and your views is also based on reality, it is not based on dreams. I also do not expect any good upward rally. Market may remain sidways during 2009 also.
the reasons are, many US & Europian Banks are in crices. many bulls have finished then who will lift the market up. still there is no any signals that FIIs are going to stop net sales. if they are not investing but if they stop selling even then market can gain whereas now FIIs and domestic mutual funds both are net sellers. ...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
d_k
Dear BSR, Lovemeal and all,
Here are some nifty figures. Let us see what to make of these. Please post your views :
Jan 91 - Nifty about 306 touched a peak about 1280 in April 92.
Touched bottom about 605 in april 93.
Peak of about 1380 in sept 94 then back to 830 in Jan 96.
A lower top of 1200 in June 96 and back to 800 in Dec 96.
Sideways trading till Dec 98 in the range 800 - 1300.
A new top of 1750 in Feb 2000 followed by a bottom of about 850 in Sept 01.
Another year of sideways trading till April 03 in the range 850 - 1200.
Then comes the great bull run till Jan 2008 when nifty touched about 4300.
Now I request all of you to please give your opinion about what to expect next.
-----
To me it looks as if for at least two more years there is not going to be any bull market.
Sometime around 2011 (?) nifty may find its final bottom (?)at about 2000(?).
regards
deepak
PS: I hereby declare that I am not a technical analyst nor an expert.
All above nifty figures can be seen fron nse website.
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Typing mistake correction : Then comes the great bull run till Jan 2008 when nifty touched about 4300.
Kindlly read above figure of nifty as 6300....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : d_k
Dear BSR, Lovemeal and all,
Here are some nifty figures. Let us see what to make of these. Please post your views :
Jan 91 - Nifty about 306 touched a peak about 1280 in April 92.
Touched bottom about 605 in april 93.
Peak of about 1380 in sept 94 then back to 830 in Jan 96.
A lower top of 1200 in June 96 and back to 800 in Dec 96.
Sideways trading till Dec 98 in the range 800 - 1300.
A new top of 1750 in Feb 2000 followed by a bottom of about 850 in Sept 01.
Another year of sideways trading till April 03 in the range 850 - 1200.
Then comes the great bull run till Jan 2008 when nifty touched about 4300.
Now I request all of you to please give your opinion about what to expect next.
-----
To me it looks as if for at least two more years there is not going to be any bull market.
Sometime around 2011 (?) nifty may find its final bottom (?)at about 2000(?).
regards
deepak
PS: I hereby declare that I am not a technical analyst nor an expert.
All above nifty figures can be seen fron nse website.
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Dear BSR, Lovemeal and all,
Here are some nifty figures. Let us see what to make of these. Please post your views :
Jan 91 - Nifty about 306 touched a peak about 1280 in April 92.
Touched bottom about 605 in april 93.
Peak of about 1380 in sept 94 then back to 830 in Jan 96.
A lower top of 1200 in June 96 and back to 800 in Dec 96.
Sideways trading till Dec 98 in the range 800 - 1300.
A new top of 1750 in Feb 2000 followed by a bottom of about 850 in Sept 01.
Another year of sideways trading till April 03 in the range 850 - 1200.
Then comes the great bull run till Jan 2008 when nifty touched about 4300.
Now I request all of you to please give your opinion about what to expect next.
-----
To me it looks as if for at least two more years there is not going to be any bull market.
Sometime around 2011 (?) nifty may find its final bottom (?)at about 2000(?).
regards
deepak
PS: I hereby declare that I am not a technical analyst nor an expert.
All above nifty figures can be seen fron nse website.
...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Hey pkjattking,
Even gud to see Gold Prices cracking up slowly and slowly! :)
I am waiting for that BOND Market to crack up soon so that better days can be expected for Equity Market!
That Bond Market is still NOT going for a TOSS! :( :(
It is time to prepare for that BIG Discount Sale coming up in equity market if those FIIs continue with Dirty Game in Indian markets like what they did in other markets.
Ppl who are into the GAME should not get into PANIC and SELL. Just do some HOMEWORK as far as FRESH investments are to be considered into the market!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hello lovemeall,
Interesting post by you. I like the transperancy you show in your posts. You are educating boarders like me without holding back anything to yourself. Carry on the good work!!...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : lovemeall26
Hello BSR,
It indeed is scary to see your previus bullish undertones within you die so soon and the same becoming so bearish that you think renuka will come down to 18 rupees level. If all the remaining bulls start thinking the way you are, then this market is surely doomed. There is no doubt that we will sink further , but the rally I was talking about on my homepage is for the coming week and not a permanent one. As per my Open Interest charts, quite a lot of shorts have been covered down at 3200 - 3250 levels because that is the intermediate bottom at present. Wheather that 3200 will hold or not is a different question, but we should be prepared for both sides movements any time now. That is what I have tried to explain.
take care
lovemeall26
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Dear Lovemeall26,
Yeah, because the people working in the financial domains, Mutual funds, and brokerage houses are not allowed have any investment in their name, the existing holdings should be announced, and they cannot invest again, in return they might be offered Free Mutual fund units investment, employee stock options... and This is purely my guessing...
They can alwasy set up proxy accounts and operate......
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : lovemeall26
Hello vam_aru,
It is difficult for me to digest that udayan and Mittali do not have stock holdings. Even if they might not have demat accounts in their individual names, they might have it in their family members names and must be investing. It is hard to believe that such people who are so closely associated with the stock markets and who have direct access to important stock information first hand can withhold themselves from the lure of the stock markets. But that is a debatable issue.
take care
lovemeall26
Dear Bull2008
What kind of bottom are you anticipating?...
In reply to:
Meyhem in the Market what Next?
Posted by : Bull 2008
Dear investor11
The pain has just started to show and the end of this pain can only be a disaster. Time when the blue chips will fall the maxmi.
Cheers
Tracked by: 2 Boarders
markets will go to 25000 lelel in the coming one year....
In reply to:
Has your confidence in equities been shattered?
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Financial cos may have to pay 0 bn as claims on Lehman`s debts
NEW YORK: Financial companies and investment funds have to shell out up to 0 billion in claims for the insurance policies on Lehman Brothers` debts, which may worsen the ongoing credit crisis.
According to the New York Times, whether those claims can or will be paid, and the financial repercussions that could follow if they are not, will signify the biggest test for the vast, unregulated market in credit-default swaps.
The danger, the paper said, is the heavy claims on the Lehman default estimated at 0 billion to 0 billion and settling them could leave some companies with large, perhaps even crippling, losses and heighten the turmoil in the financial markets.
The magnitude of the exposure came into focus on Friday, when the price of Lehman`s bonds was set via a closely watched auction on Wall Street. The debt was priced at a little above 8 cents on dollar, leaving companies and funds that insured these debts against default on the hook for the remainder, the Times said.
The price determined the amount that sellers of bond default protection would have to pay those who bought their protection, called counterparties. The lower the bonds` price fell, the higher the payouts were going to be, the report said.
But even now, the total amount coming due is unknown because the market for credit-default swaps is not regulated or tracked through any clearing house of data. Huge value of credit-default swaps on Lehman Brothers, and the low price obtained in this au ction, mean there are billions of dollars in obligations, - the paper said quoting Eric R Dinallo, the New York State insurance superintendent. – PTI
...
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hello vam_aru,
It is difficult for me to digest that udayan and Mittali do not have stock holdings. Even if they might not have demat accounts in their individual names, they might have it in their family members names and must be investing. It is hard to believe that such people who are so closely associated with the stock markets and who have direct access to important stock information first hand can withhold themselves from the lure of the stock markets. But that is a debatable issue.
take care
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : vam_aru
Dear Lovemeall26,
Could be !!!, but are they allowed to trade ?, I hope not, they might do it through their Proxy, not directly.
The body languages are correctly spotted..
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hello BSR,
Yes there is a possibility of renuka sinking much much lower from here because just as a bull market suprises all with over valuations, so does a bear market with massive undervaluations. If sensex does go below 8800, the recovery wont be a few months, it will be more than a year for sure. That is why I am not in a hurry to buy for my Lont term portfolio. I started from 3600 levels and next entry will be at 3000 levels.
Yes now many bad stories will come out into the open. I had warned last month only on my homepage that the secretive european banks are yet to come out in the open to wash their dirty linen and now that they are coming out, the results are here for us to see.
take care
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Dear lovemeall26,
If you look at Renuka history before split up, the all low time during the BULLish time was below 200 level. So if someone does a simple mathematical calculation taking into account that split up, it is quite natural to expect Renuka coming below or around 20 level. :) Even technical charts suggest the same over a longer period of time unless some BULL Operator come into picture. So please keep that in mind for Renuka if Dirty Game continues.
Anyway, last week, once I square off some positions around 3600 last week with small pull ups, seeing no desire for taking Bifty UP by those BIG PLAYers, I had no choice but to go SHORT!
GAME has started getting DIRTY ever since those BS FIIs continue with MAD SELLing and Nifty entered that BEAR territory of 3690 value.
As per my BS expectation, these three weeks along with month of Novemeber / December should provide many stocks at very DIRT cheap prices if those FIIs continue with their MAD SELLing.
Meanwhile, I did some TA for a longer time period for various indexes.
If the GAME continues to GO DIRTY, then expect more worse days ahead.
--
If Sensex goes below 8800 or Nifty goes below 2600, then ppl should forget about any recovery in Indian STOCK market for a few months until those BS Big PLAYers are over with their BUYing or over with their BS stories! :)
For DOW, 7400 is the equivalent long term support!
If we look at all those 3 indexes, then we are close to LONG Term support for them all.
That is why, I believe that within 3 months, many stocks should be available at very DIRT Cheap prices. Ppl should do their HOMEWORK before putting any FRESH investments into the market!
--
Now, I read more BS stories all around. for example: IIP number is too low. Pakistan Stock Exchange is planning about CLOSURE for a month.
Gud luk & happy investing!
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hii lovemeall sir
I always sq off my ce and pe at the same time. Right now as i told you have 2 3600 ce 4 4500 ce and just 1 3400 pe.
Sir , i never keep hedged positions open or sq off the hedged positions first even though it kills some 2-3 k of profit but i can sleep without any tension. Thats the rule i follow. I will never sq off the pe first or keep it holding after sq off all my ce.
Even if we go back till 3600 i will earn a handsome profit including the loss in pe.
Thanks....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : lovemeall26
Hi coolboy007,
Its so dangerous trading the way you are doing - I will trade my puts at 2.45 pm ? And what if there is a small gap down in the morning and a huge rally in the afternoon. Can you imagine the condition of your put then. If you cannot follow your trade regularly, its better to avoid it and better to do delivery only. Because in futures and options, we have to wait whole day for that particular two or five minutes in a day when things change radically. That is the point where we day traders strike and make our kill. I am not saying we will surely rally tomorrow, but since we are oversold on the charts, a rally is long overdue. Max I think we can see is 3705 to 3800 this week. take care,
lovemeall26
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
i feel nifty may touch 3550-3650 in 1-2 days but after that again decline will start towards 2900-may be with in this week.
this is my view it may go wrong also
regards
...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Hi SANJU,
I cannot say anything about intra=day rallies but on Monday
Nifty may touch 2970 sometime during the day and may be lower
later
Tracked by: 1 Boarder
In India, as on date, deposits with scheduled commercial banks (SB,Current, RD, FD) have deposit insurance cover upto Rs.1 lac (free of cost to account holders) and the banks pay the premium. BUT, Rs.1 lac insurance, covers all deposit accounts (incl.interest) AND, THAT TOO, AGGREGATE OF DEPOSITS IN ALL BRANCHES OF THE BANK. Hence, if one wants to have full safety for the deposits, they cannot keep more than Rs.1 lac in ANY single bank. Given the current crisis, and that India is one of the few countries where domestic saving is high, and a large percentage of population is senior-citizens who meet their daily needs out of interest income, it is high time that Indian Govt. raises the deposit insurance cover to atleast Rs.10 lac immediately. This will give immediate assurance to the public in general. Otherwise, one can see in the days ahead, public going in for splitting deposits from existing single bank, and depositing smaller sums in many banks. ...
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
dear hln,
2004 and 2006, also 2006 feb are all not bear market
they are all corrections. bear markets once in 8yrs cycle means after 92 2000 after 2000 it is 2008 next one may be around 2016
thanks...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Dear pranvpichu,
Your observation that Bear market always runs for 2-3
years seems to have no basis. Look at the following facts
relating to bear markets in India:
April 1992 to April 1993: 12 months, correction 56%
January 2004 to May 2004: 5 months, correction 32%
May 2006 to June 2006: 1 Month, correction 31%
Hope you will re-think about your hope.
Good luck
Boarder Circle