Hi Novice1000,

Do you really think that current prices we are seeing are based on fundamentals. I`m a fundamental investor and I don`t think so.

Certainly I agree with you that the GDP/growth/PE will come down as well revenues/margins. Still I think we might see better than current prices few qtrs ahead from here.

I could be wrong.
I note your opinion that prices are not very cheap at current levels.
It will help keep my confidence levels under tab as I buy more into few frontliners.

Regards,
Aby ...

Hi Raj_tips,
Appreciate your helpful inputs !

I`ll watch the stocks your mentioned.
Some are completely staying away from IT & banking sectors.
Still I agree SBIN will be a safer one of the lot as the likes of ICICI could have unknows levels of exposure to subprime.

Keep an eye on ABAN & GMR also.

I agree that a midcap rally might only follow a frontline rally if at all it happens. IFCI, Nagarfert, Chambal, TTML might benefit that time.

The way things are moving, there might not be much negatives left to factor in by the time of elections unless we see a good recovery prior to that.

But yeh, I remember the black monday right after BJP govt fell. So it`s better to be safe than sorry.

Regards,
Aby...

Hi Novice1000,

Your fears on macro economic issues are coming true.
But the extent of damage in unprecedented and many stocks
in my PF are now available at mouth watering prices.
I`m just hoping that economy won`t go into a state of LT recession.

Regards,
Aby...

Hi Raj,

New rumors are above few big Indian Banks & Telcos incurring heavy losses which aren`t yet reflecting in balance sheets. Where will the index go if there is any truth in this.

Keeping aside the damage to index, I wonder what is happening to midcaps which are getting butchered by over 15% during every fall. Indiabulls is trading below 100, way down from it`s all time high price of above 1000.

Not sure if it`s only the FIIs or is it also the demoralised retail selling out of panic at any level, like there is no tomorrow.

Regards,
Aby...

Hi Cooldude,

Certainly it would be the right step for govt to encourage domestic participation. Even then I doubt if this carnage would stop when the FIIs & hedge funds are under pressure and selling in BRIC markets at any price to pull money their much needed money.

It`s about `demand vs supply` right.
When supply is way high and demand is too low, prices are bound to crash. We Indians are either not brave to buy at current levels or
already invested and helplessly watching.

Also I hope that the thousands of crores of PPF money won`t land into the hands of risky pvt players. Particularly after seeing the collapse of global capital markets like nine pins, I doubt the investment sense & business ethics of many so called corporate giants.

Regards,
Aby...

Hi Raj,

I`m expecting NIFTY above 4000 in the coming weeks inspite of the weak sentiments. Hope India will start seeing FII fund inflows once the dust settles down in wall street. The current value of rupee is also attractive for them to benefit on two fronts.

As you said, things are getting worse than 2001 or atleast as worse by now. September has registered the highest number of job losses in the last 5 years. I hope that DOW wouldn`t go below 9700-9500.

Regards,
Aby...

Hi Maximus,

As far I know, ABAN is one of the best bets in its sectors.
Reasons -

1) It`s one of the biggest in offshore dirilling in Asia.
2) They have good expertise & experience in dealing with dea sea operations.

For the above reasons, I consider ABAN a good to hold for long term as the demand for oil is not going to come down any time soon.

Every sector & script are falling today due to the global fears & liquidity crunch. ABAN is no exception.

If you have reasons based on facts to believe that ABAN could go below 1000, let`s know please.

Regards,
Aby...

dear aby, The phrase `Mouth watering prices` is very subjective. Valuations depend on many factors.Particularly during the bullish times, due to higher liquidity, valuations reach stratospheric levels. And when the correction takes place and stock valuations reach more realistic levels, it gives an impression that valuations are dirt cheap. In reality, markets reached right valuation levels.They are definitely not over priced.But definitely not very cheap as many perceive. India will not slip in to recession forget about LT recession. But there will be clear slow down in GDP growth in the next fiscal.It takes slightly longer period to achieve previous growth rates of 9% levels on an annualized basis. What ever happening is good from a long term perspective as the excesses ae being taken out.. regards...

Hi Aby, I think a good time to start accumulating.... Some frontliners i like are NTPC, GAIL, ONGC, SBIN(on a dip) and BHEL (again on a further dip).... How fitting that the Navratnas are really standing tall (of course, we know who is buying into thm and at whose behest)... Avoid Reliance, TATA and Birla group stocks as they are likely to be hard up for cash... Though TATA group stocks will likely outperform in the next bull run. Telecom i believe is not a good investment now... It is getting increasingly more competitive, and is unlikely to outperform. True, there are a lot of midcaps with sound fundamentals that are available cheap.. But I think they will only follow the frontliners.. So right strategy should be to buy frontliners, and once the frontliners are giving 15-20% returns, book part profits to invest in good mid-caps. Do remember that there is another risk that we face in the form of elections; and a hung parliament, or a govt led by the third front could lead to another big collapse. Good Luck! ...

hi aby. i have 100 IFCI at 45 AND 100 IDFC at 98 do you feel this is a good time to average out the 2......

dear abyphilip, Our markets entered in to oversold zone.Now with the relaxation of p-notes and the results season, we may see some upside in our markets though a short lived one. But chances for FII flows are very remote as they have been facing severe liquidity crunch. regards...

Hi Aby, The games seems too big... If the US and European markets do not recover, the govts are going to end up losing a lot of credibility.. US Fed and treasury has now virtually used up all ammunition at their disposal after announcing the SPV to buy commerical paper... So these are times to be cautious... I expect a close above 3960-3980 to be the first bullish signal. If you are a real long term investor, time to start picking tomorrow`s winners (avoid have-beens of the past). If you are a trader, wait for a couple of days to see if there is any meaningful recovery in the global markets. Track the bond yield spreads, gold and USD-Eur and ESD-Yen carefully. Good Luck and regards ...

for abyphilip Are you saying that HNI invested their PF (Provident Fund?) in NIFTY index? Stupid are those who speculate (they call, invest) serious money in such gambling. What is MT?. LT is still in my opinion very expensive shares, but the preferred shares of thousands of boarders here. I will never buy LT even at 40% less price than now. Books are meant for civilians and not for professionals. They talk theory subject to one or 10 factors stagnant. This never happens. Only once I bought a book on options and whenever I wanted to have nice sleep, I would open up the book. I still have it and call it my sleeping pill. Kalidas, Hong Kong 30/5/2008...

for abyphilip, In stock market never regret or repent any action. Be always foward looking. If you have lost, try to see where you can make it up, keeping your eyes and ears open. I also invested over Rs 12 lakhs, just a small portion from my early liquidation of entire portfolio, on last thursday. I was about 2 days early. So be it. I am down by about 10%, but I bought progressively. Wherever I am in money, I am selling to book small profit and stay liquid. If those stocks come down again, I will buy back. I am accumuating GSPL and sold small lot of 500 of Air Deccan that I bought at Rs 53. If it goes higher, I have another lot bought at 58 to 59. If it goes to 70, then I have third lot at about 64 and one lot at highest price at Rs 71 is still held by me. What I am trying to say is that you can not perfectly time any purchase or sale. Inspite of market down by over 2000 pts, my state owned refinery stocks are still up by over 35% to 50% (in BOCL). People were laughing at me when I recommended those stocks when RPL was at Rs 172. Today, my holdings are up by 35% in those companies, and RPL down by 20% One you start blaming yourself, the market will never let you make any money. You can not change history, so don't waste time there. Kalidas, Hong Kong 30/5/2008 Kalidas, Hong Kong' ...