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Market Outlook - Short Term
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Hello BRS,
Read this ,its so funny -
Investment analyst and entrepreneur Dr. Marc Faber concluded his monthly bulletin (June 2008) with the Following: ``The federal government is sending each of us a 0 rebate. If we spend that money at Wal-Mart, the money goes to China. If we spend it on gasoline it goes to the Arabs. If we buy a computer it will go to India. If we purchase fruit and vegetables it will go to Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala. If we purchase a good car it will go to Germany. If we purchase useless crap it will go to Taiwan and none of it will help the American economy. The only way to keep that money here at home is to spend it on prostitutes and beer, since these are the only products still produced in US. I`ve been doing my part.”
lovemeall26
...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
BullSheetRules
Dear fmcgbites,
Look at Gold market now, probably you will understand the GAME better!
Those TOM and HARRY were not BUYing all stocks when market was around 6000.
Those TOM and HARRY have hoarded those stocks when market was around 2000-3000 level. Then they PUMP the market to higher level knowing fully well about sub prime crisis in Apr 2007. :):)
That is one of the favourite way of making MONEY... PUMP and DUMP!
Gud luk & happy investing! :) 
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Dear sd3,
Before going for more details:
1. Be Clear of WHY you are into this GAME of stock market!
Most ppl who are into this GAME of Stock market are not clear of WHY! :) :)
That is, it would be interesting identify first yourself as what is the purpose of being in stock market!
Are you in this GAME for making MONEY or for some other reasons like EGO satisfaction?
EGO satisfactions could be anything- fashionable to have stocks, Being the WINNER of that Popular Contest that goes in stock market like BUYIng at the LOWest price, enjoy the thrills or anything…
2. Then identify kind of PLAYER in the GAME you are -- trader or investor!
There are variations within those different set of traders and investors. They ACT differently in this GAME of Stock market! :)
3. Check what kind of trader or investor matches with your Personality and STYLE! Are you A type (HIGHLY Aggressive) or B type (Highly defensive) or Lying somewhere in between?
4. Check your TIME FRAME. Do you wish to check your portfolio on Minute to Minute basis or day to day basis or week to week basis!
That time frame itself will give a good idea about kind of strategies one need to adopt for making Money in stock market!:)
5. Be clear of Popular BS myths that goes in stock market! Understand what are the reasons for such popular BS Myths! How those BS myths stop common investors from making Money in stock market:)
Let me give some idea:
Every Big Player says, Build a well diversified Portfolio!
If you BUY all the stocks at same time, then that portfolio will never give you a good return!
Just think of Nifty. Those who have well diversified portfolio on the line of Nifty at 3500 a few years back are still at the same value.
Diversified Portfolio is NOT BENEFICIAL for common retail investors
As Buffet says that diversified portfolio is for ignorant, for those who do not know what they are doing! :)
Understand the Popular GAME related to SECOTOR Rotation in stock market!
Coming to your questions:
For question 1, Check different PDFs available for free in different websites!
For newbies, the following book could be useful! Not sure whether PDF is available or not! :)
--
Way of the Turtle: The Secret Methods that Turned Ordinary People into Legendary Traders
--
GAME of STOCK Market is more about yourself, then about those BS experts, TA, FA or Sentiments! :) :)
Other you can easily find while looking out for those references!! :)
For question 2,
Check again different Exit strategies available for free as part of literature.
E.g. Fibonacci based exit strategy... momentum based exit strategy... sentimental based exit strategy... or ta based exit strategy... LT exit strategy.. Fundamental exit strategy... TA exit strategy…
Do not fall to that popular BS Myth that exit once you gain of profift of 15% , then exit. Most of the times, a single trade will give a large result than those small trades. This will come with expereince!:)
Popular ones for BUY High and Sell High kind of traders are related to Fibonacci based exit strategy... momentum based exit strategy:):)
I hope that give your some idea in short! Rest you have to do on your OWN as each individual is different!
Learning on your own will help you see more MONEY making opportunities. There is no HOLY Grail in different TA FA.. everything is with you! :)
I hope that helps! :)
Gud luk & happy investing! :)...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
sd3
Hi BSR ,
two questions for you .
1 Since this is kind of unprecendent situation and hence a great learning opprtunity for newbies , are there some point or books or tings you recommend us to learn , think or track ?
2 my portfolio : one forth of my portfolio in in banking sotks and its still 5-8 % down. I would hold them in case it goes down and thats on my conviction .
Now i am not clear on what to expect in next 2-3 months so i am not sure of what exit strategy to adpot whenever market rally or what % upside wud be resonable .Would you recommend me smth ?
I am not a value invester at this point in time .
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
dear lovemeall,
You are right that in a 5 year time frame, realty stocks will do well.But the sector is very likely to be an underperformer in the year 2009.So fresh LT investors wont loose any opportunity by keeping them selves away from Realty space.
If one wants to be in realty space, unitech would be a good bet.
But right now, one has to be choosy and stock specific.Though most of the price correction already took place, time bound correction will be there.
Your picks will surely reward you in the long term..
regards...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : lovemeall26
Hi novice1000,
Yes I believe that the sugar sector has great scope ahead as cane production is expected to be way below targets which will only result in more demand and less supply and hence better prices and profits for sugar companies. Although eveyone says to stay away from realty but I guess very soon the time has come to enter these sectors too if one is prepared to hold these stocks for the next five years,otherwise like you said, better to stay away from them. I however have picked up some unitech as it looks so mouth watering below 100. And aban, I have already picked up a little at 1400 levels and am eyeing much more below 1250.
lovemeall26
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Hello venkat,
At least our banks are not corrupt and only the politicians are as you claim so. However, in the US and other foreign countries, people have lost faith on their banks now and are actually hoarding cash at home rather than put it in banks lest it evaporates overnight. At least we in India have never given a second thought of putting our money in our banks which are much relatively safer and have neglible exposure to this so called sub-prime crisis. No wonder our banking stocks in our markets are way above their previous lows still inspite of this carnage.
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
venkat_c
Your so called domestic Banks like Central bank of India, HDFC, ICICI, and all public banks have seen lot of funds being siphoned off by the corrupt politicians and the billions of dollars are written off from the account. Be with the Global leaders like HSBC, Standard Chartered and ABN Amro bank,I am venkat from Training8m, Queensland Australia
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
No intelligent investor will redeem his MF now and stop his SIP. Its only the panic of new investors.
shakti...
In reply to:
Where do you see the Nifty bottoming out?
Posted by : nchandrani
Nifty will go below 3200. FII selling and retail investor are selling in panic. MF redeemption. No one buying. Only few traders are trading that too loosing their money.
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Your so called domestic Banks like Central bank of India, HDFC, ICICI, and all public banks have seen lot of funds being siphoned off by the corrupt politicians and the billions of dollars are written off from the account. Be with the Global leaders like HSBC, Standard Chartered and ABN Amro bank,I am venkat from Training8m, Queensland Australia...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : lovemeall26
Hello venkat c,
For you the best bankers must these banks of so called global leadership category, but for me I am very happy with my own domestic banks on which I have bigger faith than most foreign banks who are in such a deep mess right now.
lovemeall26
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Nifty will go below 3200. FII selling and retail investor are selling in panic. MF redeemption. No one buying. Only few traders are trading that too loosing their money. ...
In reply to:
Where do you see the Nifty bottoming out?
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Hi novice1000,
Yes I believe that the sugar sector has great scope ahead as cane production is expected to be way below targets which will only result in more demand and less supply and hence better prices and profits for sugar companies. Although eveyone says to stay away from realty but I guess very soon the time has come to enter these sectors too if one is prepared to hold these stocks for the next five years,otherwise like you said, better to stay away from them. I however have picked up some unitech as it looks so mouth watering below 100. And aban, I have already picked up a little at 1400 levels and am eyeing much more below 1250.
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : novice1000
dear lovemeall,
You are right that Some stocks are reaching attractive levels.Aban could be a good bet at 1200 levels.
From engineering and construction space Punj is a good bet.And then comes HCC.
Sugar space is definitely a good investment option at present and Renuka being the high beta stock of that space could outperform the markets once the sectors starts doing well.
LT investors should keep themselves away from Realty space.
regards
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Rupee (INR) can rise upto 40 against Dollar (USD) in the short term....
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Sir,
Are you classified as a FDI or a FII?
Do you invest in India on an individual capacity? And do you pay
taxes on your profits from your Indian portfolio to the Government
of India or to the US govt?
Just curious.
...Singh......
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : pkjattking
I think you missed that... me and Mr bsrules were saying the day bailout passed and Dow dived 2 mins after.... that this manufactured fall will probably take us to 9800 on Dow which will mentally confuse most traders...... so Dow is now at that level so lets c where we go from here...... I now have losses In India..portfolio is down 30%.. but still doing better in Us...... keep faith.
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Hello venkat c,
For you the best bankers must these banks of so called global leadership category, but for me I am very happy with my own domestic banks on which I have bigger faith than most foreign banks who are in such a deep mess right now.
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : venkat_c
Best bankers are Standard Chartered, ABN Amro, and HSBC, be with the global Leaders in banking, I am Venkat from Training8m, Queensland Australia
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
dear lovemeall,
You are right that Some stocks are reaching attractive levels.Aban could be a good bet at 1200 levels.
From engineering and construction space Punj is a good bet.And then comes HCC.
Sugar space is definitely a good investment option at present and Renuka being the high beta stock of that space could outperform the markets once the sectors starts doing well.
LT investors should keep themselves away from Realty space.
regards...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : lovemeall26
Hello pkk07,
Yes you are right in your assessment that all stocks might not get cheaper from hereon and hence its advisable to start cherry picking stocks in which one believes there is a bright future. Today even banks cracked a bit. I am not expecting to see HDFC Bank again at 900 levels like in july, but will surely enter it at around 950 levels where it is expected to reach too. Just look at aban, it has been bludgeoned to no extent. from 5400 it has sank to 1271, this is near its bottom. It might never fall below 1205 where I am planning to enter it big time at any price availble below 1250.
lovemeall26
Tracked by: 6 Boarders
Reply part two
What you think , Growth is just about manipulating and juggling some numbers. This is growing by 25 percent that is growing by 35 percent , So the GDP will grow by 99 Percent.Who is a fool to believe all this rubbish figures. In a country where land is being snatched by farmers and every where there is massive floods or draught and the farmers comitting suicide becaus ethey have no money , our agriculture still keeps on growing ha ha ha.
People who are worse then kids are the so calloed gurus of this kiddish world of stock markets.Is life was just about manipulating some figures then the game would have been all different.
But thankfully so , its not that easy and so we have to fall and fall in a fashion that willsend shivers down the spine of all those who chose to ignore the reality.
Be ready for the mother of all bear markets.Extraordinar bull markets will need to be followed up by extraordinar bear markets to cool down people.Mind you when the markest will go below 10,000 , The kind of media attention they get now a days will kill these markets for a long long time.
ganda bacchha
Prateek Bhatia...
In reply to:
SENSEX to rally by 2400 pts in 7 days
Posted by : goldchest
Bhai Sahab,
Where were you all these days?
Why so many changes in nick?
Hope all is well at your end.
Regards!
Goldchest.
Tracked by: 6 Boarders
Hi goldchest ,
Where was i ? what was i doing ? Leave all that and address the bigger question. where is the market headed ? I think this is more interesting.
Between now and when i left posting , that was sometime in march , the world has changed . And changed exactly as predicted by me when i said repeatedly that there would be great negative news flow from the western world in the month of september.
For my money the market is still headed far lower then what one can imagine . These are extra ordinary times and extra ordinary times followed by extra ordinary bull markets. You know extra ordinary times need to be dealt extra ordinarily and as per newtons law "For every action there is an equal and opposite sharp reaction". The time has come for that reaction. Untill now what you have seen is just the removing of the "Icing" from the cake. The cake still needs to be cut in to pieces.
This past bull run has created tremendous amount of froth which needs some extraordinary treatment to cool down. Anybody who is everybody is still of the view that this is just a going phase and sooner or later we will recover from this pain and will again start rising illogically.
This is not the way markets bottom out. In life everything takes time and gets completed in various phases.Right now what you are seeing is the failing of financial institutions in the west. Many banks going bust etc. But this is just the primary effect the bigger secondry effect is still to come out and play in the open.But people now a days have become so immature they hardly realise that life is not like " Get Set And go" where every thing happens in a jiffy. Today american economy is going bust , the next days government announces a package of soem billion dollars and "Hurray" here we go everything is over. Is life so easy.
Now there is a talk of rate cut by all the banks. How is this going to help i dont understand. Here is a person standing with say suppose a 100 dollar loan which he has to pay you back with interest , say of some 6 perecnt . You ask him to pay 100 dollars with not 6 percent interest but after this coming rate cut only 5 dollar interest.
Now this person dosent even have 10 dollars in his pocket to pay you off. How does lowering of interest from say a 6 to 5 percent is going to help you , When you dont even have the damn principle amount to return.
No one wanst to trust any one now a day. No one is willing to lend money to other. How does a rate cut help.
But idiots as people are they will react to it positively for a day or two then again they will come to terms.
This is no joke , Big big joke of significant size have failed. Now this is indicating that there is something terribly wrong in the system thats why these all institutions failed. What you think , Its such easy a cake walk , that you pay some money , cut some rates and its all over.Is it so easy
As for us , We have our own reasons to fall. Everybody even now here has his head up in the air.We arte different , we are insulated , We are this , We are that. We are the story of the millenium.
i just put a simple question. What we as a country done over the past years of the bull run to derserve this kind of a run.
We multiplied the markets by 7 times.Did we even multiplied the number of industries or employment opportunities by two times ? Did we multiplied the number of roads , bridges , Power production , Hospitals , schools by two times ? After such a lot of inflation does the salary of a ground worker incresed by 2 times ?
Building three shopping malls which snatch the employment of 10 times the number of people then what they employ and then by building two airports that too with out connecting roads ha ha ha ha ha you we think we are the growth engine of the world LOL.
...
In reply to:
SENSEX to rally by 2400 pts in 7 days
Posted by : goldchest
Bhai Sahab,
Where were you all these days?
Why so many changes in nick?
Hope all is well at your end.
Regards!
Goldchest.
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Hello pkk07,
Yes you are right in your assessment that all stocks might not get cheaper from hereon and hence its advisable to start cherry picking stocks in which one believes there is a bright future. Today even banks cracked a bit. I am not expecting to see HDFC Bank again at 900 levels like in july, but will surely enter it at around 950 levels where it is expected to reach too. Just look at aban, it has been bludgeoned to no extent. from 5400 it has sank to 1271, this is near its bottom. It might never fall below 1205 where I am planning to enter it big time at any price availble below 1250.
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : pkk07
This is the time to separate men from boys. I mean good versus bad stocks.
Its the time to enter good stocks. Remember that all stocks will not bottom out at the same time as Sensex or Nifty.
Banks seems like they bottomed out in July. They will not go below that. Sugar may have bottomed out now. Realty may take even longer.
This is the time to enter the right stocks and be rich.
Nifty will sure go to 2800-3200 but that does not mean all the stocks will get 25% cheaper from now on.
Time to start LT investing...
