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usgoel
Silver
I am an investor-cum-trader. I do both long term investments as well as short term / day trading.
For long term investments, i highly believe on fundaments and invest only after looking into balance sheets, P&L, capital structure, sector performance, future prospects etc.
For short term investment, i rely on candlestick charts, daily moving averages etc. Short term investments are as small as a few hours to as large as 3 months depending upon targets, hitting stop losses etc.
I am very disciplined investor/trader. I maintain strict stop losses when investing short term. In long term, i often back my investments with more funds if they fall lower.
I readily look into company news, results etc and only choose a company to invest after putting in good amount of time in analysis.
For long term investments, i highly believe on fundaments and invest only after looking into balance sheets, P&L, capital structure, sector performance, future prospects etc.
For short term investment, i rely on candlestick charts, daily moving averages etc. Short term investments are as small as a few hours to as large as 3 months depending upon targets, hitting stop losses etc.
I am very disciplined investor/trader. I maintain strict stop losses when investing short term. In long term, i often back my investments with more funds if they fall lower.
I readily look into company news, results etc and only choose a company to invest after putting in good amount of time in analysis.
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02 Sep 2008 21:10
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Hi,
I looked into the companies financials and the condition is pathetic. Company is going further and further into losses. For the full financial year of 2007-08, company posted a profit of 50% less than that of 2006-07. So the results don't seem to be formed. Maybe the company is really getting losses. If you study the balance sheet and P&L carefully, you will find that the expenditure of company has been rising continuously along with sales which is resulting in poor results.
With rising inflation and increasing competition, i suspect if the company will really perform that good. Unless we see reduction in expenditure in coming quarters, i am skeptical to the view that the stock may touch 90.
In year 2006-07 when the profit was double of what it is now, the company had touched high of 51 and in 07-08 when the company profit gone down, it touched 80 which implies that operators have already taken the juice out of the company and left it so i have very very cautious view on this company.
So maybe buy at 19 may not be too bad but with market trading at 12x PE and growth sectors like telecom, realty and banking trading at substantially discounted PEs, it might not be the best pick.
Even if one buy at 19, he should look to exit the stock at 25 max
Hope my articles help some of you and keep you safe from this stock....
I looked into the companies financials and the condition is pathetic. Company is going further and further into losses. For the full financial year of 2007-08, company posted a profit of 50% less than that of 2006-07. So the results don't seem to be formed. Maybe the company is really getting losses. If you study the balance sheet and P&L carefully, you will find that the expenditure of company has been rising continuously along with sales which is resulting in poor results.
With rising inflation and increasing competition, i suspect if the company will really perform that good. Unless we see reduction in expenditure in coming quarters, i am skeptical to the view that the stock may touch 90.
In year 2006-07 when the profit was double of what it is now, the company had touched high of 51 and in 07-08 when the company profit gone down, it touched 80 which implies that operators have already taken the juice out of the company and left it so i have very very cautious view on this company.
So maybe buy at 19 may not be too bad but with market trading at 12x PE and growth sectors like telecom, realty and banking trading at substantially discounted PEs, it might not be the best pick.
Even if one buy at 19, he should look to exit the stock at 25 max
Hope my articles help some of you and keep you safe from this stock....
02 Sep 2008 20:53
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02 Sep 2008 10:59
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I think, its not important to when HDIL will breach 300 or 350.
What is more important is that it is a high value stock and one is getting it at very low prices. Just like when Reebok on sale you get shoes at 50% off and is the best time to buy.
Similarly, the company is very good, business model is intact, profits are growing, EPS is increasing, P/E is lowest since its inception and all the fundamentals are positive.
Generally i have noticed that a good fundamental company is blocked from moving up for some time (maybe a few months even) by big players so that they can accumulate the stock at low levels. The same seems to happen with HDIL
So, from a long term perspective, i think this stock can go 5-8 times of its current value and is a fundamental buy at these levels. When a stock has so big upsides, i.e. targets are around 1500-1700 then it should not matter to if it is currently at 280 or 200 or 350. I think any rate below 400 is just buy..buy...buy for this stock
Infact, i feel like selling my house and buying HDIL for i can make 5 houses of similar value in next 2-3 years :0)
Jokes apart, i strongly am fan of HDIL and would recommend it to anyone who has future perspective and is patient enough to hold and make good profits in this stock..
Cheers !!!...
What is more important is that it is a high value stock and one is getting it at very low prices. Just like when Reebok on sale you get shoes at 50% off and is the best time to buy.
Similarly, the company is very good, business model is intact, profits are growing, EPS is increasing, P/E is lowest since its inception and all the fundamentals are positive.
Generally i have noticed that a good fundamental company is blocked from moving up for some time (maybe a few months even) by big players so that they can accumulate the stock at low levels. The same seems to happen with HDIL
So, from a long term perspective, i think this stock can go 5-8 times of its current value and is a fundamental buy at these levels. When a stock has so big upsides, i.e. targets are around 1500-1700 then it should not matter to if it is currently at 280 or 200 or 350. I think any rate below 400 is just buy..buy...buy for this stock
Infact, i feel like selling my house and buying HDIL for i can make 5 houses of similar value in next 2-3 years :0)
Jokes apart, i strongly am fan of HDIL and would recommend it to anyone who has future perspective and is patient enough to hold and make good profits in this stock..
Cheers !!!...
30 Aug 2008 22:18
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29 Aug 2008 13:17
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Hi,
You pointed out very important point. But that is where one should look into the stock\\`s historical performance.
The stock historical P/E was High P/E of 55-60 which means definitely there is no question about the credibility problem of the stock.
The thing here is that P/E has eventually declined as the stock price gone down together with posting of higher profits thus enhancing the EPS and reducing the P/E further.
So in my view, this is a value buy. Even if realty stocks get a hit by 50% earnings and shows -ive growth by 50% the EPS of the stock would stand at 25 which would mean that at current rate P/E would elevate to 12 which is yet much lower than its usual high P/E of 60
And that too is based on upto 50% downgrade of earnings of this company in the current financial year. However this company recently declared bonus and also is a very good stock and has strong management.
I personally feel that the stock is in very high consolidation phase and one could see upto 1000% gains from current levels in the next 2-3 years.
This is definitely an investment pick from long term horizon. The stock may underperform in short term due to under-rating of the sector but then, if DLF is to be bought at P/E of 35 then HDIL is 7 times better to be bought at P/E of 5
Happy Investing !!!...
You pointed out very important point. But that is where one should look into the stock\\`s historical performance.
The stock historical P/E was High P/E of 55-60 which means definitely there is no question about the credibility problem of the stock.
The thing here is that P/E has eventually declined as the stock price gone down together with posting of higher profits thus enhancing the EPS and reducing the P/E further.
So in my view, this is a value buy. Even if realty stocks get a hit by 50% earnings and shows -ive growth by 50% the EPS of the stock would stand at 25 which would mean that at current rate P/E would elevate to 12 which is yet much lower than its usual high P/E of 60
And that too is based on upto 50% downgrade of earnings of this company in the current financial year. However this company recently declared bonus and also is a very good stock and has strong management.
I personally feel that the stock is in very high consolidation phase and one could see upto 1000% gains from current levels in the next 2-3 years.
This is definitely an investment pick from long term horizon. The stock may underperform in short term due to under-rating of the sector but then, if DLF is to be bought at P/E of 35 then HDIL is 7 times better to be bought at P/E of 5
Happy Investing !!!...
Hi,
Firstly HDIL goes ex-bonus on 21st and not 22nd. 22nd is record date. So stock bought before 21st will only be eligible for bonus.
Secondly, yes HDIL is one of the best pics in the market. Getting a realty large-cap stock at a PE of 5.5 is really a good deal. Realty sector witnesses growth of 20-50% and HDIL is one of the leaders in realty stocks.
It has strong management, good funds circulation and is fundamentally an excellent stock.
In my opininon, it has potential to go 6 times from its current levels within next 2-3 years.
It has EPS of 72 and thus stock is extremely cheaper when compared to DLF which is trading at 510 with a PE of 30.
So hold your investments in HDIL from long term view and you are sure to make smart money in this counter.
Happy Investing !!!!...
Firstly HDIL goes ex-bonus on 21st and not 22nd. 22nd is record date. So stock bought before 21st will only be eligible for bonus.
Secondly, yes HDIL is one of the best pics in the market. Getting a realty large-cap stock at a PE of 5.5 is really a good deal. Realty sector witnesses growth of 20-50% and HDIL is one of the leaders in realty stocks.
It has strong management, good funds circulation and is fundamentally an excellent stock.
In my opininon, it has potential to go 6 times from its current levels within next 2-3 years.
It has EPS of 72 and thus stock is extremely cheaper when compared to DLF which is trading at 510 with a PE of 30.
So hold your investments in HDIL from long term view and you are sure to make smart money in this counter.
Happy Investing !!!!...
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