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Adhunik Metaliks
BUY OR SELL
Posted by :
GuestTracked by: 0 Boarder
Sell and buy between 30 and 40. You will be able to save about 50% erosion in value. the metal sector is going down and the commodities prices have peaked out. Even real estate companies on banking on reduction in the prices of steel. so this will affect Adhunik and bring its price down.
Better late than never. SELL NOW BUY LATER. This is my view. Please do your own research and decide. I have sold between 103 and 74. I am happy with my decision....
In reply to:
BUY OR SELL
Posted by :
hellojdr
TODAY I HAVE PURCHASES 100 SHARES @ Rs.67.50/- should i hold or sold it 
Absolute buy at the CMP: Be and Make
Posted by : Be and MakeTracked by: 1 Boarder
Adhunik Metaliks Ltd (AML), a value-added steel manufacturer, is expected to more than double its top line and quadruples its bottom line during FY06-09E on the back of capacity expansion into high-margin products along with backward integration into critical raw materials such as iron ore and coal. We believe these initiatives would result in a significant de-risking of its business model and lend stability to earnings.
Adhunik Metaliks Ltd (AML) is the flagship company of Rs 1,000 crore Adhunik Group based in Kolkata with manufacturing facilities at Rourkela, Orissa. The company began operations as a sponge iron manufacturer in FY04 and set up a pig iron and steel-making facility in FY06. The company is undertaking an expansion that would fully integrate it over the entire value chain. At present, the company has a capacity of 250,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) with sponge and pig iron capacities of 150,000 tpa and 187,500 tpa respectively, and carbon and alloy billet capacity of 250,000 tpa.
Adhunik Metaliks’ (AML) Q1FY09 net revenues, at INR 3.29 bn, were in line with the expectation of INR 3.31 bn. Though sales volume of pig iron and steel was flat sequentially, net revenues grew 5% Q-o-Q on back of higher average net realizations. Except Ferro alloys, realizations of all products increased more than 20% sequentially and 28-66% Y-o-Y. Steel production dipped 7% sequentially due to inadequate captive metallics and buying of metallics was uneconomical due to increasing sponge iron prices.
Orissa Manganese and Minerals’ (OMM; mining subsidiary) results were way ahead of our estimates. EBITDA, at INR 173 mn, was better than our expectation of INR 129 mn due to lower operational cost. Net profit, at INR 151 mn, exceeded our expectation due to lower tax rate of 11.8% vis-à-vis our expectation of 33%.
AML, during the last two years has been in a major expansion phase. It is not only increasing its steel-making capacity but also going up the value chain. It is doubling its sponge-iron and billet-making capacity. The expansion is being done in two phases. In the first phase, it is increasing its billet-making capacity to 0.45mtpa and setting up a rolling mill of 0.1mtpa and a ferro chrome plant of 37,760tpa. In the second phase, it is doubling its sponge iron capacity to 0.3mtpa and setting up a sinter plant.
Adhunik Metaliks Ltd’s (AML) acquisition of Orissa Manganese and Minerals Ltd (OMML) last year has proved to be a decisive step for the company. Iron ore and manganese ore prices have soared 100% in last one year and are expected to surge further. OMML’s mining operations commenced on a small scale in Q3FY08 and are expected to ramp up in FY09. Mining operations being a high-margin business, we expect OMML’s operating profit to be Rs3.3bn in FY09 and Rs4.9bn in FY10.
At CMP of INR 67, the stock is trading at P/E of 3.5x and 1.74x of our revised FY09E and FY10E earnings, respectively. Hence considering the three conditions as bearish case pe 06 then 180/- realistic stage 10 pe 302/- Optimistic stage 14pe then 402/- for 18-24 month period
The sudden decline is due to off-loading of the FIIs due to the bailout conditions at their home. Hence, use this fall as a opportunity and grab this stock. Even for short term sudden spike can be expected from this counter.
With thanks
Be and make
...
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Over a period of time, it appears it will come to 2005 level. till then scrib is under pressure...
120/- @4400 and 90+ @4200 Nifty
Posted by :
retrobrokerTracked by: 4 Boarders
sure BE&MAKE.. btw i am also updated in RPL ... have it averaged at 155... that stock shud rally arnd january.....
In reply to:
120/- @4400 and 90+ @4200 Nifty
Posted by : Be and Make
dear RB - Yes you are right, there is lot value at this point of time but the problem is the margins are going to be shrinking further means the value what we are seeing is going to shrink further, so right now it is not good idea to invest in. I am sitting with 60% cash and am using this for hedging my 40% holdings. I am right now going with RPL only, for fresh updates/calls please go through my home page and i will update it every week.
with thanks
be and make
BUY OR SELL
Posted by : Be and MakeTracked by: 0 Boarder
dear hellojdr - You purchased it and again on the same day you are asking for the adivce?
By doing so, you always sit with loss. Before buying any stock judge yourself that the entry point is right or not.
No need to worry just hold it (If you are aiming for long term)
with thanks
be and make...
In reply to:
BUY OR SELL
Posted by : hellojdr
TODAY I HAVE PURCHASES 100 SHARES @ Rs.67.50/- should i hold or sold it
120/- @4400 and 90+ @4200 Nifty
Posted by : Be and MakeTracked by: 4 Boarders
dear RB - Yes you are right, there is lot value at this point of time but the problem is the margins are going to be shrinking further means the value what we are seeing is going to shrink further, so right now it is not good idea to invest in. I am sitting with 60% cash and am using this for hedging my 40% holdings. I am right now going with RPL only, for fresh updates/calls please go through my home page and i will update it every week.
with thanks
be and make
...
In reply to:
120/- @4400 and 90+ @4200 Nifty
Posted by : retrobroker
thanks for your views be and make infact i am staying in cash....and waiting for a fall....at these levels many stocks look attractive but i see a 10% downside.also this is not the time for midcaps...punj lloyd is a good buy waiting for it to dip below 280...so wats ur current portfolio holding..
Regards,
RetroBroker..!!
120/- @4400 and 90+ @4200 Nifty
Posted by : retrobrokerTracked by: 4 Boarders
thanks for your views be and make infact i am staying in cash....and waiting for a fall....at these levels many stocks look attractive but i see a 10% downside.also this is not the time for midcaps...punj lloyd is a good buy waiting for it to dip below 280...so wats ur current portfolio holding..
Regards,
RetroBroker..!!...
In reply to:
120/- @4400 and 90+ @4200 Nifty
Posted by : Be and Make
Dear retrobroker – Yes, I too wonder by the price movement of adhunik and I strongly believed that the absolute buy is at 68/- for adhunik. Definitely there is a value, but even after the morgan’s off load stocks is skidding further. I think something is cooking inside. Just wait and watch is the right policy I think.
With thanks
Be and make
120/- @4400 and 90+ @4200 Nifty
Posted by : Be and MakeTracked by: 4 Boarders
Dear retrobroker – Yes, I too wonder by the price movement of adhunik and I strongly believed that the absolute buy is at 68/- for adhunik. Definitely there is a value, but even after the morgan’s off load stocks is skidding further. I think something is cooking inside. Just wait and watch is the right policy I think.
With thanks
Be and make
...
In reply to:
120/- @4400 and 90+ @4200 Nifty
Posted by : retrobroker
i been waiting to enter this scrip but ebveryday it seems to be making new lows...have been seenign this from 100 levels and now its at 60..shud be in the 50 zone...fundamentqally this looks veryyy good but wehy is this falling..and wats the buy price.. no contraian investing in this script at any level...this just seems to be melting
120/- @4400 and 90+ @4200 Nifty
Posted by : GuestTracked by: 4 Boarders
It seems to be a good buy at 45...
In reply to:
120/- @4400 and 90+ @4200 Nifty
Posted by : retrobroker
i been waiting to enter this scrip but ebveryday it seems to be making new lows...have been seenign this from 100 levels and now its at 60..shud be in the 50 zone...fundamentqally this looks veryyy good but wehy is this falling..and wats the buy price.. no contraian investing in this script at any level...this just seems to be melting
120/- @4400 and 90+ @4200 Nifty
Posted by : GuestTracked by: 4 Boarders
im not following this scrip, but i know that the chief operators of tdil were also present in this counter
mc is full of such sharks....blood-suckers......
where the balathirudhan & homoram?...
In reply to:
120/- @4400 and 90+ @4200 Nifty
Posted by : retrobroker
i been waiting to enter this scrip but ebveryday it seems to be making new lows...have been seenign this from 100 levels and now its at 60..shud be in the 50 zone...fundamentqally this looks veryyy good but wehy is this falling..and wats the buy price.. no contraian investing in this script at any level...this just seems to be melting
120/- @4400 and 90+ @4200 Nifty
Posted by : retrobrokerTracked by: 4 Boarders
i been waiting to enter this scrip but ebveryday it seems to be making new lows...have been seenign this from 100 levels and now its at 60..shud be in the 50 zone...fundamentqally this looks veryyy good but wehy is this falling..and wats the buy price.. no contraian investing in this script at any level...this just seems to be melting...
In reply to:
120/- @4400 and 90+ @4200 Nifty
Posted by : Be and Make
Dear LM – Blood bath continues in adhunik, big goons exiting from this counter which drags the scrip to the new lows. I already told several times in this board that any scrip should respond to the market sentiment and this tag “120/-@4400 and 90+ @4200 Nifty” tells the fact. If nifty falls further then adhunik too fall along with the broader indices and the same was happened. Unfortunately big FIIs (morgan stanely) offloaded their exposure in this which further damaged this stock.
I first entered in this stock at 50+ levels and exited at 168/- after my exit the stock further went up to 240+ level. But I never worried about that up move bcoz I fixed the sell price when I bought the scrip is at 170/- I got my target and exited with money that’s all.
I already apprized you to avoid this mid cap stocks due to poor market sentiment.
With thanks
Be and make
120/- @4400 and 90+ @4200 Nifty
Posted by : Be and MakeTracked by: 4 Boarders
Dear LM – Blood bath continues in adhunik, big goons exiting from this counter which drags the scrip to the new lows. I already told several times in this board that any scrip should respond to the market sentiment and this tag “120/-@4400 and 90+ @4200 Nifty” tells the fact. If nifty falls further then adhunik too fall along with the broader indices and the same was happened. Unfortunately big FIIs (morgan stanely) offloaded their exposure in this which further damaged this stock.
I first entered in this stock at 50+ levels and exited at 168/- after my exit the stock further went up to 240+ level. But I never worried about that up move bcoz I fixed the sell price when I bought the scrip is at 170/- I got my target and exited with money that’s all.
I already apprized you to avoid this mid cap stocks due to poor market sentiment.
With thanks
Be and make
...
In reply to:
120/- @4400 and 90+ @4200 Nifty
Posted by : Be and Make
Dear LM – Blood bath continues in adhunik, big goons exiting from this counter which drags the scrip to the new lows. I already told several times in this board that any scrip should respond to the market sentiment and this tag “120/-@4400 and 90+ @4200 Nifty” tells the fact. If nifty falls further then adhunik too fall along with the broader indices and the same was happened. Unfortunately big FIIs (morgan stanely) offloaded their exposure in this which further damaged this stock.
I first entered in this stock at 50+ levels and exited at 168/- after my exit the stock further went up to 240+ level. But I never worried about that up move bcoz I fixed the sell price when I bought the scrip is at 170/- I got my target and exited with money that’s all.
I already apprized you to avoid this mid cap stocks due to poor market sentiment.
With thanks
Be and make
BUY OR SELL
Posted by : hellojdrTracked by: 0 Boarder
TODAY I HAVE PURCHASES 100 SHARES @ Rs.67.50/- should i hold or sold it...
Why your Adhunik investment failed.
Posted by :
small traderTracked by: 0 Boarder
yes the point was that you will be faster to react when you see you investment in negative after booking profit and reinvesting as against not booking profit and seeing your profit erode but you stock still in green. eg buy 100 Sell 125 Buy 126 sell 120 profit = 20
or by 100 - - - - sell 110 profit = 10 in this case you may still not sell as you stock is still in green profit =10. however in case 1 you would now be showing a loss of 16 Rs against your buying price which would compel you to cut your losses . Hope this help clarify....
In reply to:
Why your Adhunik investment failed.
Posted by : googol
2305
Dear Friend,
In a nutshell you are saying exit at 25% profit or 10% loss whichever is hit earlier.Am I right?In your example,you have said buy at 125 and exit at 124.I think you have to keep min 5% there (i.e Rs 6)
Cheers,
Why your Adhunik investment failed.
Posted by : googolTracked by: 0 Boarder
2305
Dear Friend,
In a nutshell you are saying exit at 25% profit or 10% loss whichever is hit earlier.Am I right?In your example,you have said buy at 125 and exit at 124.I think you have to keep min 5% there (i.e Rs 6)
Cheers,...
In reply to:
Why your Adhunik investment failed.
Posted by : small trader
I am writing after a long time though i have read occasionally messages on the board from Sballu and Be and make. I held Adhunik from a buying price of 63 and sold it now at 80. If i remember correctly the stock has a high above 230 and i had extraordinary returns at that time of over 300%. I finally sold it at a profit of about 15%. A huge loss. Why? Because we people who refer to advice on message boards ( small investors )freeze when thing start going bad. A simple rule in investing in stocks is the concept of an intrinsic value of the stock this is a value that the investor has to decide on on the data of buying the stock. This would be your risk free return currently (10%) plus the risk premium you feel that you should get for taking the risk in the stock. This premium would be based on the investors own analysis of the stock and its future. There things you can use such as the Beta of the stock (movement of the stock in relation to the movement of the market) CAPM ect. However simply put you need to add a risk premium say i said 15% that would mean that my intrinsic value would be the buying price plus 25% so if i bought the stock at 100 i would sell at 125. The biggest mistake small investors make is not setting a sell price when buying the stock. How does it help? Say you bought at 100 and sold when you hit 125 (considering that you considered 25% a good return on that stock). You now have 125 Rs as against you 100 rs and this is the real value not you notional value. At this point you can analyze other stock which may be performing well or wait for a dip in the same stock to reinvest. Now lets say that the stock does not dip and you feel it is going to give you much higher returns you can re invest in the stock you now invest 125 rs and this is you purchase price not the 100 Rs earlier. if the stock fall below 125 you are already in the Red and will take quick action to sell the stock as against the earlier situation where even if the stock went to 112 you would have held on saying you have a Rs 12 profit. This is important because again small investors react quickly to the red color and will rest peacefully so long as their stock is in the green. With out realizing that they are loosing returns made over a period of time and expect the stock to bounce back. No again back to the situation of reinvesting at 125 the stock start to fall below 125 you sell and liquidate your money. You will now look for safer options Large cap stock (L&T, BHEL ext or stock with low Beta if the market is very volatile or simply keep the money in all cases you are much better off. Hope this helps people who read this a disciplined approach towards investing your sell points should be equal to your buy points. Loosing 10% of your profit as short term gain tax is better than losing 10% of your overall value to the market. Always have a sell price at the time of buying a stock and sell at this price no matter what.
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