Market Outlook - Short Term

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : coolboy007

Thanks lovemeall sir.

I would come back from school around 2:45pm so whatever rate would be prevailing would have to sell pe at that. So by your guidance i feel that now you are expecting a bounceback in nifty. Thats good for my longs.
Can you give an approx target where i should be booking profits in my longs.

Thanks sir
Rajat.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : vam_aru

Dear Lovemeall26,

Two more snmall banks fail, That brings a total to 15 Banks failure, Let see if this is not playing a dampener again in DOW markets...? and yesterday what a volatility it witnessed, 1000 points volatility from Low to high, ( 7882 to 8900 ).

Investors need to find a way to protect their portfolios...

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Dear lovemeall26,

In my BS opinion, You have explained different situations correctly.

Just for info: I am SHORT on Nifty! :)

Over a longer time frame, I expect Nifty continue to come down and stablise under 3000 level unless DOW make some kind of immediate UPTREND above 10000 level.

You may find a bit SCARY to know what kind of level I am looking for building those LT investment portfolio. :) Just to give an idea: IFCI about 12-15 level, Nagarjuna around 12-14 level, Renuka around 18-22 level.

If I do not see those counters coming to my price level target, then I will PLAY as per PLAYers PLAYing the GAME!

This is like I will invest in a new home in real estate only when a flat of 1 crore CRASH to a price of 20 lakhs first and then will see the new developments / situtations! :)

I hope that clears some BS points as far as building those LT investments are concerned!

Gud luk & happy investing! :)

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : hindlevernet

Dear vam,

Bears have taken their toll. No serious slide in Dow
anymore. It may not fall below 7500. It touched 7883
on Friday.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : vam_aru

Dear Shakti,

Yeah you are right , Even if we try to reach the level of 3800, investors will start booking profits and drag the index lower, so the consolidation activity to occur for 3 to 9 months.

for this I have posted one strategy under "Market Outlook - Medium Term", the Title is "How to play markets for 3 to 9 Months ?" , and the same has been updated in my homepage also.

Please have a look and let me know your views, your suggestions are welcome..

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Dear sp.palo,

I follow combination of TA, FA and Sentiments and PLAY as per the PLAYers PLAYing the GAME! :)

For me, Stock market or for that matter, any market is a GAME of Real Money!

Gud luk & happy investing! :)

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : vam_aru

Dear Shakti,

Yeah you are right , Even if we try to reach the level of 3800, investors will start booking profits and drag the index lower, so the consolidation activity to occur for 3 to 9 months.

for this I have posted one strategy under "Market Outlook - Medium Term", the Title is "How to play markets for 3 to 9 Months ?" , and the same has been updated in my homepage also.

Please have a look and let me know your views, your suggestions are welcome..

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : sp.palo

hai vam,
it will take months for nifty to reach 3800 levels.

shakti

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : vam_aru

The markets resistance level is now become 3800 for NIFTY, I feel 3800 can not be breached in the near term...

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Dear sp.palo,

I follow combination of TA, FA and Sentiments and PLAY as per the PLAYers PLAYing the GAME! :)

For me, Stock market or for that matter, any market is a GAME of Real Money!

Gud luk & happy investing! :)

No one is too big not to fall

Posted by : sambala

Sensex posts biggest weekly fall in 18 yrs

The benchmark Sensex tumbled 7 per cent on Friday and posted its biggest weekly fall in nearly 18 years as panicky investors joined a global selloff on recession worries, with weak industrial data adding to the gloom

No one is too big not to fall

Posted by : sambala

Mazda says no decision on sale of Ford`s stake

Mazda denied Saturday that a decision had been made by troubled Ford Motor Co. to sell its stake in the Japanese automaker, but didn`t rule out a possible deal.

Japanese media reported Saturday that Ford was considering selling its one-third stake in Hiroshima-based Mazda Motor Corp. Public broadcaster NHK, without citing sources, reported that Ford would maintain some of its stake in Mazda and management ties.

"Nothing has been decided," Mazda said in a statement received Saturday. "Any important decision will be disclosed."

Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford said in a statement, "We do not want to comment on speculation."

"Our relationship with Mazda has not changed," Ford said.

The move, should it happen, would be a symbolic retreat for U.S. automakers in Japan. General Motors Corp. similarly sold off its stakes in Japanese automakers in recent years.

Selling shares of Mazda, which makes the RX-8 sports car and Miata roadster, would furnish Ford with cash as it tries to turn around its business.

Ford has struggled amid a drastic downturn in U.S. auto sales, burning through nearly US$11 billion of its cash stockpile in the past year. It reported its worst-ever quarterly loss of US$8.7 billion in the second quarter.

Speculation has risen that Ford may file for bankruptcy, although it has denied that. Ford`s stock price has also suffered, plunging to its lowest level in 25 years.

Ford formed a capital alliance with Mazda in 1979, taking a 25 percent stake. That was raised to 33.4 percent in 1996 - a controlling share in Japan.

Over the last decade, Ford helped engineer a turnaround at once-struggling Mazda, sending executives and sharing technology and auto parts to cut costs.

Mazda, Japan`s fourth-biggest automaker, has been a bright spot in Ford`s otherwise-gloomy fortunes of late. Mazda posted a six-fold surge in profit in the April-June quarter.

In an interview with The Associated Press in Detroit on Friday, CEO Alan Mulally denied Ford was about to run out of cash.

Mulally did not rule out asset sales as a way to raise money, but did not refer to Mazda specifically.

"Cash is really, really important, so we are managing that very carefully," Mulally said.

No one is too big not to fall

Posted by : sambala

Morgan may benefit from latest Treasury plans

U.S. mulls buying equity in banks as Morgan Stanley awaits MUFJ injection

Morgan Stanley may benefit from the U.S. Treasury`s latest plan to buy equity stakes in financial institutions as the investment bank awaits a crucial $9 billion investment from Japan`s Mitsubishi UFJ.


Late Friday, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the government is developing a "standardized" program to purchase equity in "a broad array of financial institutions."

"Such a program would be designed to encourage the raising of new private capital to complement public capital," he explained in a statement.

Morgan Stanley was hit hard this week by concerns that the firm`s deal with Mitsubishi UFJ may not go through, or might have to be re-negotiated.

Shares in the investment bank slumped 60% to close below $10 this week. Less than a month ago, MUFJ

, one of Japan`s largest banks, agreed to buy 21% of Morgan Stanley, partly by buying stock in the firm at more than $25 each. The $9 billion deal is now worth almost as much as the market value of all of Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley`s predicament could be eased if the Treasury agreed to complement MUFJ`s $9 billion investment by purchasing its own stake in the investment bank.

A spokeswoman for the Treasury declined to comment on specific companies on Saturday, while a Morgan Stanley spokesman didn`t immediately respond to an email seeking comment.

Vicious spiral

The collapse of rival investment bank Lehman Brothers the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history, has triggered a much broader financial crisis in recent weeks that`s begun to limit crucial short-term funding for a wide variety of companies.

Soon after Lehman`s failure, Morgan Stanley gained approval to become a bank holding company, giving it more access to direct loans from the Federal Reserve and allowing it to collect customer deposits, a more stable source of funding.

Morgan also had a $179 billion pool of cash, government bonds and other easily sellable securities at the end of August to help it survive if outside sources of money dry up.

The Mitsubishi UFJ investment will also help bolster capital and reduce leverage. That`s also being helped by Morgan`s efforts to sell assets.

Despite all these positives, Morgan Stanley`s access to funding in private markets has dwindled, sparking worries about its future viability. Those concerns fed upon themselves last week in a vicious spiral that the firm struggled to counteract.

"The Company`s cost and availability of funding have been and may continue to be adversely affected by illiquid credit markets and wider credit spreads," Morgan Stanley warned in a quarterly regulatory filing on Thursday. "Many lenders and institutional investors have reduced and, in some cases, ceased to provide funding to borrowers."

Morgan said its financing needs are satisfied for 2008. But if it can`t borrow money on acceptable terms after that, the firm said it may sell equity while pursuing other ways to raise money such as collecting more deposits, according to the filing.

In September, Morgan said it used some of its $179 billion pool to support its liquidity. The firm shrank some businesses that need lots of funding, sold some assets selectively and tapped government lending programs by pledging collateral. The pool is now smaller, but still a lot larger than it was in 2007 on average, Morgan explained.


Moody`s warning

Moody`s Investors Service warned late Thursday that it could downgrade Morgan Stanley`s ratings because an extended drop in global capital markets activity will likely cut into the firm`s revenue and profit next year and possibly beyond.

The rating agency also said that customers and investors have become concerned about wholesale investment banks like Morgan Stanley. That, in turn, has put more pressure on the firm, Moody`s noted.

No one is too big not to fall

Posted by : sambala

GM, Chrysler held merger talks

General Motors and Chrysler LLC reportedly have been in early talks about a merger as two of the largest U.S. automakers look for new ways to cut costs as sales slump.

GM has talked recently with Cerberus Capital Management, a private-equity and hedge fund firm that owns 80.1% of Chrysler, the Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.

Cerberus proposed a swap in which GM would acquire Chrysler`s automotive operations. In return, GM would give its remaining 49% stake in GMAC to Cerberus, the newspaper said. Cerberus already owns 51% of GMAC, an auto finance and mortgage lender that`s been hit hard by the credit crisis.

The recent slump in financial markets has halted talks between GM and Cerberus, but if markets stabilize, discussions could resume quickly because both companies want to dispose of these assets quickly, the Journal added.

The New York Times, which reported the talks, said Cerberus is also meeting with other car companies such as France`s Renault SA and Japan`s Nissan Motors.

GM, Ford Motor and Chrysler, the largest automakers in the U.S., have seen sales slump as surging oil prices knocked demand for gas-guzzling SUVs and the credit crisis cuts off financing for potential buyers. GM shares slumped as much as 33% on Thursday, forcing the company to tell Reuters that it`s not considering bankruptcy.

A combination of GM and Chrysler could help the companies combat the sales slump by cutting overlapping operations. GM sees as much as $10 billion in cost-cutting if a deal happens, The Journal reported, citing an unidentified person familiar with the company`s thinking.
A Cerberus spokesman didn`t immediately return an email seeking comment on the report Saturday.

Has your confidence in equities been shattered?

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