Market Outlook - Short Term

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : vam_aru

Dear HLN,

TA or FA , There is a Global problem that can be seen even by starters in the markets,

The question is could you exactly predict The bottom using TA?, I think in this environment It can not be possible, only we can say it will do this and that...but no conclusions..

I`m not denying the TA will be useful, But all investors wanted to know is where is the bottom? can we predict the bottom using the TA ? if yes what is the Number ?

Thank you very much for your views.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : coolboy007

Our dear HLN is expecting Nifty to hit 2970 on monday itself , thats a 300 point cut on nifty. WOW!!! Even DOW is not that bad today , lets see , Dow bou nced very sharply from 7883 so maybe a small bottom has come there. HLN says bottom could be near 2800 nifty.

Sir what are your views on nifty , I am long for the whole month and i took some Ce hedged with 1 pe.

Thanks

Rajat

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : sp.palo

Dear HLN,
What is the final bottom according to your TA ? According to me its 3000. Do you expect a small rally soon ?

One more thing. which software you use for TA ?

regards
shakti

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : pranavpichu

dear hln,
generally bear market will run for 2-3 yrs . so i dont think fresh bull market will start now

don`t worry, worst is going to be over

Posted by : minku123

read this report of 3 oct
Neppolian Pillai of Modern Shares & Stock Brokers is of the view that one can start looking at Sesa Goa from Rs 110-90 for a target of roughly about Rs 129-132.
Pillai told CNBC-TV18, "Metal is a sector, which would get beaten down majorly and that’s happening. Having said that the sector chart is currently tracing very close to the long-term support line and whereas the comparative chart from which we take a clue, it’s gone down the six-year trendline, it has broken through that eight-year trendline is going to come and support it some time later. So probably stocks will give you a trading bounce probably not an investment kind of situation, you can surely trade."

He further added, "One stock, I would like to buy into the fall whenever that happens is Sesa Goa. It is currently trading about Rs 117 or so maybe I will start looking at the stock from Rs 110-90 for a target of roughly about Rs 129-132, maybe I will place a stoploss at about Rs 85. That would be the trading pick."

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : SANJU786

HI PRANAV,

There will be short term rally which will take nifty to 3900 and sensex to 12500 very soon in october. Sensex has no rights to go below 9500 in short term, if it closes below 9500 than indian markets will go into long hibernation mode.

The rally which will come in few days is not a begining of fresh bull market but just a pull back.

Regards
Sanju

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Dear sp.palo,

Printing currencies is not an issue to solve the problem. That is what, US has been all these last 8 years using the non-stop DOLLAR printing machine. :)

There are some RULES in this GAME of Printing Currencies! One RULE says if someone print too much currencies beyond the normal accepted capacity, then that would result first in Short Term High Inflation and consequently resulting in that hyperinflation over a longer period of time! :)

However, in my BS opinion, if there is no MONEY in place, then it makes sense to print that Money within a threshold value for the benefits and soundness of financial systems and well being of the system! :)

Novice1000 has provided better fundamental perspectives also.

Anyway, technical suggest to expect some UPMOVES both in Nifty and DOW! let us hope for the best! :)

Money is with those BIG PLAYers. Those BIG PLAYers including some hedge funds have looted that money into their pockets! :) Money in the system is general constant. So if someone loose, someone gains! :)

Gud luk & happy investing!

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : SANJU786

A review of the past fifty years shows that holding
stocks only from OCTOBER TO APRIL showed 10 times
greater gains than holding stocks only from MAY TO SEPTEMBER.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Just as info: I will start my LT investment portfolio in staggered manner from this week now! :) :)

One KEY RULE of LT investment is wait for the price to come to the level with adequate Margin of Safety! :) If that price does not come, then use that money for making money by using trading opportunities as part of market inefficiencies!

PLAN your GAME accordingly!

Gud luk & happy investing! :)

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Another BS point: This UPMOVE can also mean the start of BULL RUN as DOW has touched the LOW Point of that extreme end of BEARish corrections!

So, those who have done HOMEWORK should start their SHOPPing for LT investments!

Looking at current data and charts, I do not expect Nifty going DOWN below 3050 level in current situation!

Gud luk & happy investing! :)

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Dear novice1000,

Will those macro fundamentals stories look fine after a year as base effect will be less?

I just check that Crude is DOWN below 80 USD now! :) Obviously, that may not stay there for long! :) However, this itself show how easily various GAME is PLAYed in different markets when every BS experts start claiming Oil going towards 200 USD! :)

Inflation is DOWN and is expected to be in Single Digit during next year unless some GAME again is PLAYed somewhere.

Let us see if market moves up in hurry as no one knows and market is not in control of one group!! Once those BS FIIs start BUYing, everything will look better! :) Remember: Some long only funds registered as BS FIIs have not started their SHOPPing yet! :)

As I told you before depending on the movement of Nifty, all kind of BS reasons can be given!

Recent example is that of oil! :)

Gud luk & happy investing! :)

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : novice1000

dear BSR,

What is strange with IIP numbers?

With hike in crude price and bad fiscal management, macro fundamentals clearly suggested a slowdown in the growth.

I clearly mentioned many times since July 2008 that disturbed macro fundamentals and infrastructure bottlenecks will affect the GDP expansion in this fiscal and also in the next fiscal.

GDP growth rate for sure will come down to levels below 7% levels in the next fiscal.But i wont be surprised even if it comes to levels of 5% in the next fiscal.

That is why i have been repeatedly sayng that, markets wont move up in hurry.

regards

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : sp.palo

Dear BSR,
Why cannot every nation call up an emergency meeting and decide to print currencies to increase the liquidity by 30%. Otherwise no way out.

One more thing. No one has the money. The liquidity ha dried up. So, where all the money went ?

regards
shakti

Investors should stay in cash, not sell in panic

Posted by : Udayan Mukherjee

On the market mayhem:

It was not one of the worst weeks – it was the worst week ever. The market down 15% is as bad as it gets. It is completely unprecedented and unexpected. One does not expect to see largecap names lose 25-30% of their market cap in just one trading session flat. That’s exactly what has happened today and there are lots of reasons and lots of things which have happened in the market from Infosys, to the cash reserve ratio (CRR) cut, to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) number, to the Finance Minister and the SEBI statements – it has been very eventful as a day.

But at the end to look at stocks like Reliance Communication down 23%, ICICI Bank down 20%, Reliance Infra down 20% - stocks in the index giving up 1/5th or 1/4th of their market value in a single session, tells you what path sentiment has come at, at this point in time. So global panic, bad local macro numbers and nobody wants to buy – there are only sellers in the market – this is classic capitulation and a bear market in full flow.

It was debilitating week for sentiment and while it has been looking oversold technically for the last couple of days, but that’s not making any difference as one can see on the screen.

On IIP numbers:

The number could be one-off but we have seen a fair number of poor IIP numbers over the last six-months. Some numbers have been okay, some have been pretty bad but the message is clear that things are slowing down quite substantially in the economy. There is no doubt about that and one would see repercussions of that not only in GDP growth but also in earnings growth – that is something which is worrying the market. So that 1.5% number might be an aberration.

It may or may not be but a lot of people in the market and in the economy seem to be in denial mode as well. They refuse to take on board any poor economic number, just wishing it away as a bit of an aberration and focusing only on the good numbers which come in.

I think the message is quite clear even if you look at or tab the newsflow from the ground that things are slowing down quite substantially and we may end up with a macroeconomic backdrop which is not as favourable as people would have us believe. That number hurt sentiment quite a bit and the market is quite convinced that things are indeed slowing down, this IIP number being an aberration not withstanding, which is why despite several protestations and clarifications from various sources, the market still closed down 7% and I wouldn’t be so sanguine that the market has not got it right.

On CRR cut:

The Reserve Bank of India is doing the right things. First things first, it has to inject more liquidity. It will have to do more. So I wouldn’t be surprised if more CRR cuts come in the next fortnight I wouldn’t even be surprised if interest rate cuts also happen, though that it is not consensus expectation at this point in time. But as one has seen in the west, these things are not quite working. They need to be there. The market takes on board, accepts the large – which is being given and then just hammers stock prices down even more.

So while this is a help, it will ease liquidity in the system – may be cool call rates a little bit – but bankers have been on record saying that this will not ease lending rates in the system and banks might even choose to hold on this liquidity and not lend it out because of the kind of industrial growth situation they are witnessing. So it is not like this money will come into the system. It might just lie with banks who might want the cushion of extra liquidity at this point in time. Will it ease the margins situation which brokers and bankers are facing at this point? May be somewhat but even so I doubt whether this will have a hugely material impact on how things are progressing.

Is the market oversold? Are things getting overdone? For sure they are but that’s how typically things happen in bear markets. In bull markets too they were getting overdone, since November-December-January and now we are seeing the opposite end of it and that might well continue for a bit longer. So yes, short answer to this – the regulators are trying both globally and locally and they will do more to alleviate the pain but barring short-term bounces which might happen because of these measures in the medium-term we will still have to go through very rough times.

-Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor,CNBC TV18