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Market Outlook - Short Term
Tracked by: 1 Boarder
Yesteday when huge selling was happening, Mr.C.J.Mathews Sankarathil,MBA told the news man which appeared in the boarder that the market won\`t fall below 10000 levels. Exactly it happend and stayed above. But he continued to see further fall if mutual funds atars redemption.If it happens from Indian Mutual funds then the market may move to 9000 levles which will be holding the bottom space.He is so positive on Reliance shares.He see the RPL +ve if falling continues too.He was the one first said the RPL will cross Essaroil soon, it happend. In the coming bounces you may see the RPL crosses Cairn buy december 2009 and stand above 350 Rs.......
In reply to:
Has your confidence in equities been shattered?
Posted by :
MMB Messenger
Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger 
Tracked by: 1 Boarder
i have no loss in market bcz i dont follow broking house recomadation..u should know how to manage money first before coming to stock market.whenever i tend to get loss i withdraw money and make my capital less.i dont take delevery of a group shares..i choosed shares which looked like moving through upper circuit filters..and bought and sold at the time when the freeze quantites looked less..( last year)..i with drew all money..now i just to jobbing..i think all broking houses with young mba`s..cheated lot of middle class families..most retired people where attracted by young girls in broking houses and lost all their money.....
In reply to:
Has your confidence in equities been shattered?
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
dear BSR,
Quote: Will those macro fundamentals stories look fine after a year as base effect will be less?
Unquote: I dont know about the stories.. i know only about my calculated analyses.
I have a very clear picture in mind how the macros affect the growth and how the impacted growth will affect the movement of indicies.
And during this kind of bearish phase,first the economy should stabilize( read as growth).During that phase, the bad sentiments and the liquidity crunch will make indicies move slower than the actual ecomomic growth before forming a base for next bull run.
Quote:However, this itself show how easily various GAME is PLAYed in different markets when every BS experts start claiming Oil going towards 200 USD!
Unquote:The projected target price of 200 USD per barrel was a speculated one(Not a fundamental one as the excessive demand than supply).
Whether such speculated targets will ever be met or not depends on
1) The ability of the speculators to take it there.
2) And the real intensions of speculators whether they really want to take it to that level or not.
Now the real question is not about crude price reaching that level. Instead how long the crude price was maintained at a level which is beyond the bearable level for our country. In fact for almost 6 months it was at higher levels which made all the fiscal plans awry.
Quote:Let us see if market moves up in hurry as no one knows and market is not in control of one group!! Once those BS FIIs start BUYing, everything will look better!
Unquote:At present markets are at fair levels.There is only one group that creates excesses in the markets...US based investment banks, hedge funds and other institutional investors.But they are handicapped right now.
DIIs, sovereign funds, Indian retail investors never create excesses in the over all markets( except stray incidents like some promoter groups and few HNIs playing with some small caps).If at all DIIS and sovereign funds create excesses, they bankrupt like their western counterparts.
Quote:As I told you before depending on the movement of Nifty, all kind of BS reasons can be given!
Unquote:I dont know about BS reasons, but i have been telling this since July 2008 when i was convinced about the disturbed macro fundamentals.
From purely fundamental perspective, i said( in July 2008) 15600-15800 will act as cap for the month of August 2008.
For me, the next cap for the month of Nov 2008 was 16100 which i had in mind before the Lehman`s filing for bankruptcy.So i was forced to relook at the upside cap after the Lehman`s incident.I was expecting those bankruptcy incidents to take place after Nov 2008.
And pls dont confused that the projected upside cap as the projected target.
regards...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Dear novice1000,
Will those macro fundamentals stories look fine after a year as base effect will be less?
I just check that Crude is DOWN below 80 USD now! :) Obviously, that may not stay there for long! :) However, this itself show how easily various GAME is PLAYed in different markets when every BS experts start claiming Oil going towards 200 USD! :)
Inflation is DOWN and is expected to be in Single Digit during next year unless some GAME again is PLAYed somewhere.
Let us see if market moves up in hurry as no one knows and market is not in control of one group!! Once those BS FIIs start BUYing, everything will look better! :) Remember: Some long only funds registered as BS FIIs have not started their SHOPPing yet! :)
As I told you before depending on the movement of Nifty, all kind of BS reasons can be given!
Recent example is that of oil! :)
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Bourses saw a virtual meltdown in one of the worst weeks in two decades, as Indian indices plunged by 10-26% amid wild rumours about a global recession led to panic sales across the globe.
In the week to October 11, the BSE Sensex ended 1,998 points or 16% lower at 10,240, the biggest-ever weekly fall.
Similarly, the broader 50-share Nifty of the National Stock Exchange also registered largest-ever point-wise fall of 538 points or 14% to end the week at 3,280.
Investors looked helpless and resorted to unloading of their holdings after the coordinated efforts by the central banks from major countries to shore up liquidity failed to have desired impact on the market sentiment.
World markets were continuously pounded on mounting fears that the escalating credit crisis will drag the global economy into recession.
In addition to the adverse conditions, the country`s industrial output growth registered a steep fall to 1.3% in August 2008.
The Reserve Bank of India swung into action and slashed the Cash Reserve Ratio by 150 basis points releasing Rs 60,000 crore to ease liquidity.
A number of central banks from major countries also cut their interest rates to boost liquidity flows.
Setting aside the relaxation of restrictions imposed on P-notes, the instrument through which foreign investors trade on the bourses, FIIs pulled out more than billion from the equity markets during the week, including Friday`s provisional numbers.
According to participants, the market is going to move in line with global cues in the coming days and ruled out any sharp rally but there might be a pull-back rally that may not be sustained.
The onslaught was so strong that only Ranbaxy, from the Sensex pack, survived to close in positive, rest 29 scrips ended with sharp losses.
Jaiprakash Associates topped the list of losers with a fall of 34.41% followed by Sterlite Industries down 30.70%, Reliance Infra down 30.48%, Reliance Communications down 28.75%, ICICI Bank 27.83%, Tata Steel down 26.99%, L&T down 23.25%, Wipro down 22.74%, TCS down 20.37%, Satyam Computer down 20.34%, HDFC Bank down 17.82%, Hindalco down 17.45% and HDFC down 17.41%.
The broad-based BSE-100 index crashed by another 1,100.80 points or 16.90% to 5,413.97, from last weekend`s close of 6,514.77.
BSE-200 Index and the Dollex-200 were also quoted sharply lower at 1,253.50 and 430.61 at the weekend compared with last weekend`s close of 1,515.29 and 536.53 respectively.
On NSE, the S&P CNX Defty dipped by 467.90 points or 6.66% to close the week at 2,343.80, from 2,887.69 last weekend and the CNX Nifty Junior also ended the week sharply lower by 1,172.00 points or 19.91% to 4,715.40 from 5,887.40.
Market Internals
Sensex loses 16%, Nifty down 14% over the week
Markets plunge on back of global sell-off
Sensex hit fresh low of 10,239
Nifty ends below 3,300, hits low of 3,199
Total turnover was at Rs 68,130cr, below 5 day avg
Advance Decline on the NSE was at 1:10
Gross delivery rises to 52% on BSE
All the BSE indices ended in the negative
BSE Realty & Capital goods lost more than 10%
Indiabulls down 19%, HDIL sheds 18%, Unitech loses over 12%
BSE Midcap & Small Caps lost over 7.5%
Punj Lloyd, Suzlon drop 18% drag capital goods index lower
Reliance Ind and ICICI Bank contribute 260 pt fall to Sensex
Only 2 stocks on Sensex end in green
FIIs in cash witness highest net selling figure YTD
DIIs in cash witness highest net buying figure YTD
Stocks at 52 week low
Reliance Industries
Sterlite
HDIL
DLFUnitech
Suzlon
ICICI Bank
L&T
Satyam
Infosys
TCS
Wipro
Tata Motors.
...
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
novice1000, Good message, especially - (a) that GDP expansion cant take place without capacity addition in infrastructural facilities like power, surface transportation and water facilities for domestic and industrial usage and,for strange reasons, govt had neglected these things in the past 4 years; and (b) that the relief ( I believe a major one) in the immediate future is the expected commissioning of RIL`s KG basin project. ...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : novice1000
dear hln,
Pls dont compare the corrections in periods between Jan2004 to May 2004 and between May 2006 to June 2006 with the present crisis.
1)Markets excesses in terms of higher valuations were very limited in those preceeding rallies.
2)There was absolutely no liquidity crisis during those periods.The present liquidity crisis is second only to great depression in 1929.
3)There was no slow down fears in 2004 and 2006.
4)Indian economy`s growth engines IT and Realty were in full swing at that time and these two sectors are now on the verge of entering in to deep troubles with no foreseeable respite in the near future.
5)Next growth engine of Indian economy is going to be the spending on infrastructural facilities.But the mounting fiscal deficit is going to play spoiltsport and force the govt to defer spending on infrastructure.
Pls remember that GDP expansion cant take place without capacity addition in infrastructural facilities like power, surface transportation and water facilities for domestic and industrial usage.For strange reasons govt had neglected these things in the past 4 years and nothing can be done in this area over night.
6)And the rapid drying up of liquidity will be another problem for the core economy.
7)post dotcom bust (8 years back), Markets were in dull phase till 2003.The present crisis by any means is more severe than that.
Expecting any sustainable rally before 2010 can safely be ruled out.
But yes.. after that one will see the mother of all rallies which India Inc witnessed so far ,taking the sensex to unforeseen levels by 2016 with one major correction in the intermediate period.
That would be the life time opportunity for any active market participant to mint money.
regards
PS: The only relief in the immediate future is the expected commissioning of RIL`s KG basin project.
Tracked by: 1 Boarder
Negative sentiments have taken their toll but I personally think that there is nothing wrong with Indian market fundamentals. Things will improve one day soon. Those who remain invested and continue to buy with whatever surpluses they can generate will immensely benefit in the long run....
In reply to:
Has your confidence in equities been shattered?
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
dear hln,
Pls dont compare the corrections in periods between Jan2004 to May 2004 and between May 2006 to June 2006 with the present crisis.
1)Markets excesses in terms of higher valuations were very limited in those preceeding rallies.
2)There was absolutely no liquidity crisis during those periods.The present liquidity crisis is second only to great depression in 1929.
3)There was no slow down fears in 2004 and 2006.
4)Indian economy`s growth engines IT and Realty were in full swing at that time and these two sectors are now on the verge of entering in to deep troubles with no foreseeable respite in the near future.
5)Next growth engine of Indian economy is going to be the spending on infrastructural facilities.But the mounting fiscal deficit is going to play spoiltsport and force the govt to defer spending on infrastructure.
Pls remember that GDP expansion cant take place without capacity addition in infrastructural facilities like power, surface transportation and water facilities for domestic and industrial usage.For strange reasons govt had neglected these things in the past 4 years and nothing can be done in this area over night.
6)And the rapid drying up of liquidity will be another problem for the core economy.
7)post dotcom bust (8 years back), Markets were in dull phase till 2003.The present crisis by any means is more severe than that.
Expecting any sustainable rally before 2010 can safely be ruled out.
But yes.. after that one will see the mother of all rallies which India Inc witnessed so far ,taking the sensex to unforeseen levels by 2016 with one major correction in the intermediate period.
That would be the life time opportunity for any active market participant to mint money.
regards
PS: The only relief in the immediate future is the expected commissioning of RIL`s KG basin project....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Dear pranvpichu,
Your observation that Bear market always runs for 2-3
years seems to have no basis. Look at the following facts
relating to bear markets in India:
April 1992 to April 1993: 12 months, correction 56%
January 2004 to May 2004: 5 months, correction 32%
May 2006 to June 2006: 1 Month, correction 31%
Hope you will re-think about your hope.
Good luck
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Usd gained as much as dow lost how can these two b heading in different direction at same time....... if us economy is so bad one would expect usd to dive with dow...... I don`t under stand this but.... In my portfolio strong usd has wiped off some loses...now if Dow recovers and usd holds its ground it will b win win situation......
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
Atheist
Sir,
Many are trying to paint a positive picture, hoping against hope that the markets may recover. The reason being they are heavily invested in the INDIAN equities....They are clutching on to straws.
But they refuse to see the WRITING ON THE WALL which is as clear as BISLERI water, THE WORLD IS HEADED FOR A RECESSION, A recession caused by EXCESS GREED, greed which had made the investors blind to the actual valuations of the businesses they were investing in, the greed of the investment bankers and other to make a killing by investing others people s money in exotic derivatives, a synonym for WMD, the greed of the Indian corporates like REL COMM to rake in money so as to up stage his KIN,
The reason for the muck that we are all in is PLAIN GREED.
.
The MUCK is not going to disappear just by hoping it will and trying to paint rosy pictures when all that is are DARK CLOUDS that are visible. We all have to suffer for the consequences resulting from EXCESS GREED that we displayed over the years.
.
This GREED results from our own deficiencies like LOW SELF ESTEEM and INFERIORITY COMPLEX, JEALOUSY.
When we see that our neighbour has a car with 100 horse power engine, we feel INFERIOR to him, we want to buy a car with atleast 101 HORSE power. When we see someone sipping a Budweiser, we feel jealous coz we can only afford to have a kingfisher.
These material wants resulting from complexes are the main fodder for the GREED.
Why cant we all learn to be satisfied with what we have!!???
WE ALWAYS WANT MORE THAN WHAT OUR NEIGBOUR HAS....WHY???
Once we learn to control our GREED and learn to BE HAPPY WIH WHAT WE HAVE, we will become immune to such bleak times.
ITS TIME TO INTROSPECT!!!
...SINGH...
Dear bubbu 64, I booked for a plot of land a year back, in AVC Township (kindly visit avchousing dot com and see the route map and location). So far, in two instalments, half of the payment has been made. The plot is yet to be registered in my name. I understand that some final approval from Greater Hyderabad Dev.Authority (some name like that) is yet to be received, which is stalling the final documentation. I would like to have your opinion on the above, especially whether the promoter is of repute, his commitment and also location of the project. Kindly leave personal message in my id....
In reply to:
Americans Common Sense Prevails...
Posted by : bubbu64
Dear Ramesh
I stay in Hyderabad. If u could let me know in which area of Hyd u have purchased this porperty, maybe I can help you. I have a good knowledge of the Hyderabad real estate mkt though I must say honestly I am neither a real broker or a dealer or a developer, But yes I had purchased two properties in Hyd three years back and had done extensive research on the whole city. My first property is purely a self occupied one while the second one is a investment/ extended family/kids option property. Hence I am constantly in touch with the mkt. Do let me know if u want some good advice on the query u have posed above.
PS:- If you want to post any personal details regarding the property which u would not like to reveal on the general msg board, then pls use the pvt msg option in ur ID.
Regards
bubbu64
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
This may be the fifth and final down wave for Nifty but for S&P it is only the third. And Elliot Wave practitioners are projecting that after a pullback sometimes next month, S&P would again fall for the final time to find its bottom.
Assuming that is true, I would say that Indian markets can not rally with US markets falling. So bottom is still a little distance away....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Hi pkk,
There is absolutely no doubt that it is the FIFTH and FINAL
wave. Bottom is very very near. Dow has hit the bottom today.
It may not fall any more below 7883.
Tracked by: 3 Boarders
Dear Ramesh
I stay in Hyderabad. If u could let me know in which area of Hyd u have purchased this porperty, maybe I can help you. I have a good knowledge of the Hyderabad real estate mkt though I must say honestly I am neither a real broker or a dealer or a developer, But yes I had purchased two properties in Hyd three years back and had done extensive research on the whole city. My first property is purely a self occupied one while the second one is a investment/ extended family/kids option property. Hence I am constantly in touch with the mkt. Do let me know if u want some good advice on the query u have posed above.
PS:- If you want to post any personal details regarding the property which u would not like to reveal on the general msg board, then pls use the pvt msg option in ur ID.
Regards
bubbu64...
In reply to:
Americans Common Sense Prevails...
Posted by :
raneshramesh
thanks very much for your wisdom,unfortunately i did not hold any cash at this time, howver i will try to work out as per your suggestions. Now, i seek another advise from you, recently i have made a aggrement to buy one flat in an appartment in Hyd and i paid 500k INR as advance, and i have to apply for a loan for another 3mil INR..after looking at the global credit situation, is it advisable to apply for loan and buy this plot or i should leave this agrement by loosing 500K to the builder, becoz, there are very less chances to get back my advance money...i am really confused, i am sure even if you staying out side India, your knowledge is wide spread, once again thanks for your time , regards, Ranesh
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
this is avery good article and good analysis...
In reply to:
India must stop relying on global flows: Uday Kotak
Posted by : MMB Messenger
One Uday Kotak, MD and CEO of Kotak Mahindra Bank, expects this global pain to remain for the next three-five years. He strongly feels India has to stop depending on global flows because those economies themselves are in a problem and said that India needs to start relying more on our domestic savings and domestic ability to build our economy.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
One Uday Kotak, MD and CEO of Kotak Mahindra Bank, expects this global pain to remain for the next three-five years. He strongly feels India has to stop depending on global flows because those economies themselves are in a problem and said that India needs to start relying more on our domestic savings and domestic ability to build our economy....
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hi coolboy,
Your father is doing the right way of investing by entering his choice of stocks in a staggered manner. Never invest everything in one go. I am also waiting for some more dip in HDFC and HDFC Bank. Although Hdfc came down to 1641 on friday, my order was for 1600. I know it has a possibility of sinking down to 1400 too wherein I shall pickup more of it. HDFC Bank is still going strong by not breaking 975. Am waiting for it to break 975 as then it can sink badly too. ICICIBank seems to have been oversold, will think about it at 300 levels. And RIL, well, its like buy one get one free. Its a buy at any levels below 1600.
Regarding your options, I would suggest to get out of your 3400 put on monday on a small dip and hold unto your calls and on a good upmove, get out of your 4500 calls coz that is too out of the money. I feel your 3600 call can give you good profits. Hang on. You still have some more time in your hands.
take care
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : coolboy007
Hii lovemeall sir,
Yeah sir i understand you are busy with your work and puja i was all empty this week with school holidays and no work.
The stocks he took werent hammered much , he took 30 HDFC bank on 1011 that day and even today took additional 20 at 106 , his punj lyod he took at 207 bought 100 more today at 192 . Relcap fell heavily he didnt take it this time , waiting for more severe fall and he took adlabsfilm to avg out shares at a higher price of arnd 550.
Sir i never take delivery shares but dad is interested in ICICI bank ( too much rumour fall ) , Aban offshore ( after a long time gave green closing ) , Gujnrecoke ( His avg 1000 shares 85 now 31 he intends to take more ) and RIL.
Do give ur views sir and plz take your time.
I am to long with 3 ce of 3600 4500 and 1 3400 Pe bought it strategically took ce at opening bell and pe when sensex was just down 500 points. Let us see which way we go.
Thanks for your help.
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hello BSR,
Yes technically, we should have a nice bounceback as shortcovering comes to the fore,but that depends when the bears have had their fill and decide that enough is enough because the ball is now in their court and they are making the rules of the game. Yes this rally will be used by stuck up bulls to offload their long positions and when they withdraw their support to further go long, our markets may again sink to 3000 levels. There is increased uncertainty around the globe and the way the dow performed on friday, it was nothing short of a formula one race. I mean traders around the world including India are totally on roller coaster rides. But trading right now is also favouring the brave who do venture out into the killing fields.
take care
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Dear lovemeall26,
Those Gap Downs were good for me! :)
Since Nifty has not not shown similar behaviour as DOW has shown, I would have expected Nifty below 3000 by now resulting in those Dirt Cheap Prices for many stocks! :)
Anyway, technically, we should see some Upward UPMOVES both on DOW and Nifty! Let us see!:)
However, you said correctly that there is no need to hurry now! Ppl need to put some HOMEWORK and go for LT investments in staggered manner!
That last fall should happen within three months! I would put my WILD guess sometime around end of November or beginning of December! Let us see! That is just a BS guess based on past historic data as I expect Dow to do well around US election time!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
