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Market Outlook - Short Term
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hello lovemeall,
Interesting post by you. I like the transperancy you show in your posts. You are educating boarders like me without holding back anything to yourself. Carry on the good work!!...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
lovemeall26
Hello BSR,
It indeed is scary to see your previus bullish undertones within you die so soon and the same becoming so bearish that you think renuka will come down to 18 rupees level. If all the remaining bulls start thinking the way you are, then this market is surely doomed. There is no doubt that we will sink further , but the rally I was talking about on my homepage is for the coming week and not a permanent one. As per my Open Interest charts, quite a lot of shorts have been covered down at 3200 - 3250 levels because that is the intermediate bottom at present. Wheather that 3200 will hold or not is a different question, but we should be prepared for both sides movements any time now. That is what I have tried to explain.
take care
lovemeall26 
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Dear Lovemeall26,
Yeah, because the people working in the financial domains, Mutual funds, and brokerage houses are not allowed have any investment in their name, the existing holdings should be announced, and they cannot invest again, in return they might be offered Free Mutual fund units investment, employee stock options... and This is purely my guessing...
They can alwasy set up proxy accounts and operate......
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : lovemeall26
Hello vam_aru,
It is difficult for me to digest that udayan and Mittali do not have stock holdings. Even if they might not have demat accounts in their individual names, they might have it in their family members names and must be investing. It is hard to believe that such people who are so closely associated with the stock markets and who have direct access to important stock information first hand can withhold themselves from the lure of the stock markets. But that is a debatable issue.
take care
lovemeall26
Dear Bull2008
What kind of bottom are you anticipating?...
In reply to:
Meyhem in the Market what Next?
Posted by : Bull 2008
Dear investor11
The pain has just started to show and the end of this pain can only be a disaster. Time when the blue chips will fall the maxmi.
Cheers
Tracked by: 1 Boarder
markets will go to 25000 lelel in the coming one year....
In reply to:
Has your confidence in equities been shattered?
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Financial cos may have to pay 0 bn as claims on Lehman`s debts
NEW YORK: Financial companies and investment funds have to shell out up to 0 billion in claims for the insurance policies on Lehman Brothers` debts, which may worsen the ongoing credit crisis.
According to the New York Times, whether those claims can or will be paid, and the financial repercussions that could follow if they are not, will signify the biggest test for the vast, unregulated market in credit-default swaps.
The danger, the paper said, is the heavy claims on the Lehman default estimated at 0 billion to 0 billion and settling them could leave some companies with large, perhaps even crippling, losses and heighten the turmoil in the financial markets.
The magnitude of the exposure came into focus on Friday, when the price of Lehman`s bonds was set via a closely watched auction on Wall Street. The debt was priced at a little above 8 cents on dollar, leaving companies and funds that insured these debts against default on the hook for the remainder, the Times said.
The price determined the amount that sellers of bond default protection would have to pay those who bought their protection, called counterparties. The lower the bonds` price fell, the higher the payouts were going to be, the report said.
But even now, the total amount coming due is unknown because the market for credit-default swaps is not regulated or tracked through any clearing house of data. Huge value of credit-default swaps on Lehman Brothers, and the low price obtained in this au ction, mean there are billions of dollars in obligations, - the paper said quoting Eric R Dinallo, the New York State insurance superintendent. – PTI
...
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hello vam_aru,
It is difficult for me to digest that udayan and Mittali do not have stock holdings. Even if they might not have demat accounts in their individual names, they might have it in their family members names and must be investing. It is hard to believe that such people who are so closely associated with the stock markets and who have direct access to important stock information first hand can withhold themselves from the lure of the stock markets. But that is a debatable issue.
take care
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : vam_aru
Dear Lovemeall26,
Could be !!!, but are they allowed to trade ?, I hope not, they might do it through their Proxy, not directly.
The body languages are correctly spotted..
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hello BSR,
Yes there is a possibility of renuka sinking much much lower from here because just as a bull market suprises all with over valuations, so does a bear market with massive undervaluations. If sensex does go below 8800, the recovery wont be a few months, it will be more than a year for sure. That is why I am not in a hurry to buy for my Lont term portfolio. I started from 3600 levels and next entry will be at 3000 levels.
Yes now many bad stories will come out into the open. I had warned last month only on my homepage that the secretive european banks are yet to come out in the open to wash their dirty linen and now that they are coming out, the results are here for us to see.
take care
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Dear lovemeall26,
If you look at Renuka history before split up, the all low time during the BULLish time was below 200 level. So if someone does a simple mathematical calculation taking into account that split up, it is quite natural to expect Renuka coming below or around 20 level. :) Even technical charts suggest the same over a longer period of time unless some BULL Operator come into picture. So please keep that in mind for Renuka if Dirty Game continues.
Anyway, last week, once I square off some positions around 3600 last week with small pull ups, seeing no desire for taking Bifty UP by those BIG PLAYers, I had no choice but to go SHORT!
GAME has started getting DIRTY ever since those BS FIIs continue with MAD SELLing and Nifty entered that BEAR territory of 3690 value.
As per my BS expectation, these three weeks along with month of Novemeber / December should provide many stocks at very DIRT cheap prices if those FIIs continue with their MAD SELLing.
Meanwhile, I did some TA for a longer time period for various indexes.
If the GAME continues to GO DIRTY, then expect more worse days ahead.
--
If Sensex goes below 8800 or Nifty goes below 2600, then ppl should forget about any recovery in Indian STOCK market for a few months until those BS Big PLAYers are over with their BUYing or over with their BS stories! :)
For DOW, 7400 is the equivalent long term support!
If we look at all those 3 indexes, then we are close to LONG Term support for them all.
That is why, I believe that within 3 months, many stocks should be available at very DIRT Cheap prices. Ppl should do their HOMEWORK before putting any FRESH investments into the market!
--
Now, I read more BS stories all around. for example: IIP number is too low. Pakistan Stock Exchange is planning about CLOSURE for a month.
Gud luk & happy investing!
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hii lovemeall sir
I always sq off my ce and pe at the same time. Right now as i told you have 2 3600 ce 4 4500 ce and just 1 3400 pe.
Sir , i never keep hedged positions open or sq off the hedged positions first even though it kills some 2-3 k of profit but i can sleep without any tension. Thats the rule i follow. I will never sq off the pe first or keep it holding after sq off all my ce.
Even if we go back till 3600 i will earn a handsome profit including the loss in pe.
Thanks....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : lovemeall26
Hi coolboy007,
Its so dangerous trading the way you are doing - I will trade my puts at 2.45 pm ? And what if there is a small gap down in the morning and a huge rally in the afternoon. Can you imagine the condition of your put then. If you cannot follow your trade regularly, its better to avoid it and better to do delivery only. Because in futures and options, we have to wait whole day for that particular two or five minutes in a day when things change radically. That is the point where we day traders strike and make our kill. I am not saying we will surely rally tomorrow, but since we are oversold on the charts, a rally is long overdue. Max I think we can see is 3705 to 3800 this week. take care,
lovemeall26
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
i feel nifty may touch 3550-3650 in 1-2 days but after that again decline will start towards 2900-may be with in this week.
this is my view it may go wrong also
regards
...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Hi SANJU,
I cannot say anything about intra=day rallies but on Monday
Nifty may touch 2970 sometime during the day and may be lower
later
Tracked by: 1 Boarder
In India, as on date, deposits with scheduled commercial banks (SB,Current, RD, FD) have deposit insurance cover upto Rs.1 lac (free of cost to account holders) and the banks pay the premium. BUT, Rs.1 lac insurance, covers all deposit accounts (incl.interest) AND, THAT TOO, AGGREGATE OF DEPOSITS IN ALL BRANCHES OF THE BANK. Hence, if one wants to have full safety for the deposits, they cannot keep more than Rs.1 lac in ANY single bank. Given the current crisis, and that India is one of the few countries where domestic saving is high, and a large percentage of population is senior-citizens who meet their daily needs out of interest income, it is high time that Indian Govt. raises the deposit insurance cover to atleast Rs.10 lac immediately. This will give immediate assurance to the public in general. Otherwise, one can see in the days ahead, public going in for splitting deposits from existing single bank, and depositing smaller sums in many banks. ...
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
dear hln,
2004 and 2006, also 2006 feb are all not bear market
they are all corrections. bear markets once in 8yrs cycle means after 92 2000 after 2000 it is 2008 next one may be around 2016
thanks...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Dear pranvpichu,
Your observation that Bear market always runs for 2-3
years seems to have no basis. Look at the following facts
relating to bear markets in India:
April 1992 to April 1993: 12 months, correction 56%
January 2004 to May 2004: 5 months, correction 32%
May 2006 to June 2006: 1 Month, correction 31%
Hope you will re-think about your hope.
Good luck
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Just for info
--
Pakistan’s Economy on the Brink of Collapsing
Staff Report
12 October 2008
DUBAI — The economy of India, and Pakistan, were booming at par sometime ago. But Pakistan’s sudden economic breakdown is more noticeable in the recent time, considering that it may not have as strong fundamentals as neighbouring India.
The financial crisis the world over may have little impact on Pakistan’s economy, but the country now virtually on a brink of collapse is seeking emergency monetary assistance to save it from a certain devastation.
A forum called ‘Friends of Pakistan’, which was launched in New York during the visit of President Asif Ali Zardari to assist the country by raising billions of dollars to stop it from failing economically, would be meeting soon in Abu Dhabi this month to decide an economic package for Islamabad.
The forum includes the United States, United Arab Emirates, Canada, Britain, Germany, France, Japan, China, Italy, Australia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Such is the economic turmoil in Pakistan that it’s inflation has shot up to 25 per cent, and forex reserves are plunging to an all time low. With a total of USD8.1 billion forex by September, the real reserves are estimated to be just USD3 billion after accounting future liabilities.
Reports suggest that it is barely enough for Pakistan’s one-month imports, and if assistance is not provided immediately, the situation would turn for worse. There is a huge gap of USD7 billion to cover in a projected current account deficit of USD14 billion for the financial year ending June 30, 2009.
The rating agency Standard & Poor has cut the rating on Pakistan’s sovereign debt rating to CCC+, which is barely above the default level.
Currently, Pakistan’s foreign direct investment is projected to fall USD3-3.5 billion this fiscal compared to USD5.15 billion in 2007-08. Noticeably, Pakistan’s economy recovered spectacularly from the impact of the post-1998 nuclear test sanctions that were done in reaction to India conducting nuclear tests at Pokhran.
After 9/11, the US helped Islamabad generously. More and more foreign assistance, and fresh access to global markets and IMF-approved reforms helped Pakistan come up economically after it pledged joining Washington’s war on terror with the initiative of former President Pervez Musharraf.
But, post Musharraf, things are looking drastically different. Pakistan’s economy has been on one continuous ride downhill, and it is now staring at the possibility of defaulting on its foreign debt obligations, financial experts tell Khaleej Times.
--
Gud luk & happy investing!...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Dear lovemeall26,
If you look at Renuka history before split up, the all low time during the BULLish time was below 200 level. So if someone does a simple mathematical calculation taking into account that split up, it is quite natural to expect Renuka coming below or around 20 level. :) Even technical charts suggest the same over a longer period of time unless some BULL Operator come into picture. So please keep that in mind for Renuka if Dirty Game continues.
Anyway, last week, once I square off some positions around 3600 last week with small pull ups, seeing no desire for taking Bifty UP by those BIG PLAYers, I had no choice but to go SHORT!
GAME has started getting DIRTY ever since those BS FIIs continue with MAD SELLing and Nifty entered that BEAR territory of 3690 value.
As per my BS expectation, these three weeks along with month of Novemeber / December should provide many stocks at very DIRT cheap prices if those FIIs continue with their MAD SELLing.
Meanwhile, I did some TA for a longer time period for various indexes.
If the GAME continues to GO DIRTY, then expect more worse days ahead.
--
If Sensex goes below 8800 or Nifty goes below 2600, then ppl should forget about any recovery in Indian STOCK market for a few months until those BS Big PLAYers are over with their BUYing or over with their BS stories! :)
For DOW, 7400 is the equivalent long term support!
If we look at all those 3 indexes, then we are close to LONG Term support for them all.
That is why, I believe that within 3 months, many stocks should be available at very DIRT Cheap prices. Ppl should do their HOMEWORK before putting any FRESH investments into the market!
--
Now, I read more BS stories all around. for example: IIP number is too low. Pakistan Stock Exchange is planning about CLOSURE for a month.
Gud luk & happy investing!
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Large sums of money of Indians is with swiss banks. Also, resident Indians have huge unaccounted wealth. Further, Know-Your-Customer (KYC) norms have made liqudity in the system tight. Given the current crisis, should Indian Government amnesty scheme, like Bearer Bonds etc. WITHOUT any legal hassle (and without any loophole given to the taxmen to harass) to the Indians having black money? ...
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear marketman
This poison seems to have spead way beyond we thought. This may lead the systemaic faliure of not the bank but also weak economic`s. It would be a bullish idea if it settles.
Regards ...
In reply to:
Alround panic ahead !!!!
Posted by : marketman
Now,the Poison is being spread among all,it looks like things are not going to settle in a hurry....
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Dear Lovemeall26,
Could be !!!, but are they allowed to trade ?, I hope not, they might do it through their Proxy, not directly.
The body languages are correctly spotted.. ...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : lovemeall26
Hello pkjattking,
Its simple to calculate then. Udayan must be long in his positions and Mittali must be short. Hence, the respective body language of both of them.
lovemeall26
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